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Monthly Archives

Entries from January 1, 2008 - January 31, 2008

2:12AM

The rule-setter on remittances

ARTICLE: “A Western Union Empire Moves Migrant Cash Home,” by Jason DeParle, New York Times, 22 November 2007, p. A1.

IDEAS & TRENDS: “Migrant Money Flow: A $300 Billion Current,” by Jason DeParle, New York Times, 18 November 2007, p. WK3.

I just love the comparison to the integration of the American West that these stories evoke in my thinking, not the acquisition phase (pre-Civil War), but the integration phase (1865-almost WWI), when territories were turned into states and pioneers were turned into citizens. Obviously, when you’re talking Western Union, the comparison gets pretty easy.

Making remittances happen is a huge globalization function, and nobody facilitates this like Western Union: “Global migration is the cornerstone of how we’ve grown,” says Christina A. Gold, the CEO.

Talk about networking: Western Union has “five times as many locations worldwide as McDonald’s, Starbucks, Burger King and Wal-Mart combined (my emphasis).”

Western Union is the lone behemoth among hundreds of money transfer companies. Little noticed by the public and seldom studied by scholars, these businesses form the infrastructure of global migration, a force remaking economies, politics and cultures across the world.

THAT’S why I say we’re in an age of frontier integration.

Remittances roughly equal ODA + FDI (or Official Developmental Aid plus Foreign Direct Investment).

Western Union is so big in this biz, it is basically “a force in development economics, a player in American immigration debates and a target of contrasting attacks.”

Western Union began in 1851 as a telegraph company with big ambitions. It first linked America’s West and East coasts about a decade later.

Fast forward with faxes and airmail and the company goes bankrupt in 1992, a victim of globalization much like this former Sovietologist.

Then, like me, Western Union is forced to reinvent itself, emerging “two years later with a focus on its money transfer service.” It is acquired by Colorado corp. First Data in 1995 and the rest is modern globalization history.

Western Union: valuable for integrating the West in the 19th century, again valuable for integrating the Gap in the 21st century.

320,000 units worldwide, with 60% of the transfers happening wholly outside the U.S.

The company is so successful now, it naturally attracts the anti-immigration furor of the Tancredos (and one imagines, the Dobbs types). It also spun off from First Data and now owns a global market share of 14%. The closest competitor sits at 3%. It is the most expensive service in the market, but it manages that by being incredibly secure, and people will pay for security.

Second story just built around big map showing remittance flows.

Here’s a new definition of economic connectivity: Nations with remittance-dependencies.

Of the top twenty globally:

For the U.S., these seven pop up: El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Haiti, Liberia, Laos and Lebanon.

For Russia, these five pop up: Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (the legend incorrectly says six).

Eight others rely on neighbors (the legend incorrectly says seven):

‚ÜíGuinea-Bissau relies on Senegal

‚ÜíBurundi relies on Tanzania

‚ÜíLesotho relies on Mozambique

‚ÜíEritrea relies on Ethiopia (not so independent, eh?)

‚ÜíJordan relies on the Palestinian territories (that must suck)

‚Üíthe Palestinian territories rely on Syria (thus suggesting that Jordan is tied to Syria economically by extension)

‚ÜíAlbania relies on Greece, and

‚ÜíBosnia relies on Croatia.

In terms of share of GDP from remittances, here’s how the top twenty shake out:

‚ÜíGuinea-Bissau at 48%
‚ÜíEritrea 38%
‚ÜíTajikistan 37%
‚ÜíLaos 35%
‚ÜíMoldova 31%
‚ÜíPalestine 30%
‚ÜíKyrgyzstan 28%
‚ÜíLiberia 26%
‚ÜíLebanon 25%
‚ÜíHonduras 25%
‚ÜíLesotho 24%
‚ÜíBurundi 23%
‚ÜíAlbania 22%
‚ÜíHaiti 21%
‚ÜíBosnia 20%
‚ÜíGeorgia 20%
‚ÜíJordan 19%
‚ÜíArmenia 19%
‚ÜíJamaica 18%
‚ÜíEl Salvador 18%.

Source listed is “Inter-American Dialogue,” led by Manuel Orozco. The Orozco report is similar to that of the World Bank’s, with some differences. It says 60 countries received a billion-plus last year and that in 38 countries the number accounted for more than 10% of GDP. Orozco estimates only one-third (96B) comes from the U.S., with Europe and the Middle East being the next biggest sources.

Of the $300B, it is estimated that 80 percent is consumed by spending on food, clothing, housing, education and whatnot. The rest goes to savings and investment, it is believed. If that 20% is used in this manner, it would still be a huge number at $60B, or roughly 60% of the global flow in ODA, as a sideline to the 240B that immediately impacts the lives of families through increased income.

Stunning stuff.

2:11AM

Tom around the web: addendum

Whereas I only linked to the posts, Brad B did a major compilation all in one place of Tom's short book reviews under the title Resolution? Read More!. Check it out.

If Brad is able to keep it updated (as he wrote), this will be a good resource for all of us.

1:29AM

Waterboarding in the age of TR

ARTICLE: FBI, CIA Debate Significance of Terror Suspect, By Dan Eggen and Walter Pincus, Washington Post, December 18, 2007; Page A01

Finished Morris's brilliant 2 vol treatment of TR (why no movie? Although I hear Scorsese making first one with Leo) and noticed waterboarding (invented in Inquisition) was used by U.S. troops in Philippines at that time--and condemned popularly then too.

1:27AM

Kurdistan: Told you

ARTICLE: U.S. Helps Turkey Hit Rebel Kurds In Iraq, By Ann Scott Tyson and Robin Wright, Washington Post, December 18, 2007; Page A01

Told you this was inevitable and right for us to do. And if we're doing it, then KRG okayed it previously.

1:23AM

Same threats, different vision

ARTICLE: Bush Faces Pressure to Shift War Priorities, By Michael Abramowitz and Peter Baker, Washington Post, December 17, 2007; Page A01

The pressure here is real and growing, yet another reason why the drawdown in Iraq has long been a done deal--successful surge or not.

We are indeed heading back toward the zero hour of this administration: threat-wise, we're coming back to roughly 9/11, only this time we're paying attention and the military is focused on the source point.

1:21AM

Korea: Core and Gap

POST: Korea’s Dark Half, strange maps

Neat post. Cited for the human growth statistics, which always stun.

2:14AM

The GMO brings eternally "new" Core U.S. in line with New Core pillars

IN DEPTH: "Monsanto: Winning the Ground War," by Brian Hindo, BusinessWeek, 17 December 2007, p. 034.

Fascinating map showing U.S. with 54.6 million hectares of planted GMOs in 2006. The closest? Neighbor Canada, then a slew of New Core: Argentina at 18.0, Brazil at 11.5, India at 3.8, China at 3.5, and South Africa at 1.4.

Other than Paraguay (2.0), nobody else over 0.5m.

Highest percentage increasing 2002-2006?

South Africa at 366%, Canada at 74%, China at 67%, Australia at 50% and Argentina at 33%. But those numbers are weird because most states in the list had nada in 2002.

Interesting huh?

1:39AM

Two new book lists and FAQs

I just put up two brief lists:

Tom's short book review posts, and

Tom's recommended books

(Now, James and Brad, get off my back ;-)

Also, finally made an FAQ page. Only two questions on it so far. What else should I add?

1:38AM

Tom around the web: caught up

Links to Tom's Top 10 foreign policy wish list for 2008
+ TigerHawk
+ Jiggers and how it relates to me
+ Economic Freedom
+ gmgDesign

+ We must be the change.... linked Two more reasons why the “55th State” is more possible than thought.
+ Preaching Peace recommends PNM.
+ New weblog that we know where the title came from: Shrink the Gap.
+ Gabe Mounce wrote about the Leviathan/SysAdmin.
+ Specialization is for Insects writes Tom's 'plans for the security of our world are the most profound and inclusive I have read'.
+ Pam Curtis reviewed the Pop!tech video, saying 'Thomas P. M. Barnett is Wowtacular!'
+ Erkan's field diary linked last week's column.
+ N=1 embedded the TED video, calling Tom 'brilliant!'
+ Total Information Awareness linked Why do Americans swallow dictators' propaganda so willingly?

1:25AM

Food and fuel logic

OP-ED: Food vs. Fuel, By Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post, Wednesday, December 12, 2007; Page A29

Nice piece by Samuelson that echoes the logic of my recent dairy column: Rising incomes equals more and better food consumption equals price pressures equals export opportunities equals the illogic of trying to get off oil with bio--especially with global warming altering ag production geography.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

12:31AM

Be all that you can be, in the PLA

ARTICLE: China Scouts Colleges to Fill Ranks of Modern Army, By Maureen Fan, Washington Post, December 17, 2007; Page A01

Interesting to watch. Very similar to stuff the U.S. military did across the last three decades to attract better recruits. Scary to some, but I look at it and see a capacity to tap over coming decades, unless you think having a friendly French president is going to be enough to cover the spread.

1:03AM

Tom around the web: books and Bhutto

Pride of place goes to zenpundit for his rundown of Tom's book posts.

+ Fraters Libertas linked Blowing through books.
+ SWJ Blog linked Four more books.
+ Shlok Vaidya’s Thinking linked Luce's "In Spite of the Gods"...

Links to Bhutto's assassination:
+ Andrew Sullivan
+ No Silence Here (a KnoxNews weblog)
+ Left Flank
+ N=1
+ contentions
+ SMARTING OFF (geez, he's even running the weblog feed in his sidebar. thanks!)
+ New Yorker in DC.
+ zenpundit

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