Get used to the congregation preaching back

ARTICLE: "Russia-Backed Think Tank to Study Western Democracy," by Andrew Osborn, Wall Street Journal, 18 Janary 2008, p. A7.

Actually, it'll be set up to offer countering critiques to even the rhetorical playing field a bit.

Says the slated head, "You can only be a pupil for so long."

We can argue about how "good" a pupil, but you get the Putinesque gist.

Such is the state of America's standing right now ...

Good to be me

Hey, it just occurred to me: I recently passed my two year anniversary of working as Tom's webmaster. Pretty fun stuff.

6032 posts (more than half on my watch). 8778 comments (all on my watch).

Here's to more great years, including the publishing of volume 3!

Speaking to the Big Red One

NOTE: Tom wrote this on Wednesday, 16 Jan

After speaking at the St. Joseph Missouri Air National Guard event on Tuesday night, I was driven by an officer to Manhattan KS, where I spoke to senior officers of the Big Red One (1st Infantry Division). That was a great bunch to brief, and the Q&A extended nicely into a cocktail hour and then into a lengthy steak dinner with a select group of senior-most officers.

Got a nice crystal figure of the 1st ID's shield. That went along with a nice command coin and wooden plaque (with a pewter Pony Express rider on it, as the express originated in St. Joseph MO) from the USAF the day before, plus a leather bomber jacket (which I passed on to my wife). As mementos go, this was a usually heavy haul. The military is very nice in that way, typically going way out of its way to express appreciation for talks, knowing that I could skip a lot of these invites and simply concentrate on the big paying gigs.

That was the main reason why I had to leave the Leigh Bureau speaking agency: their unhappiness with my mix of big and small fees (they wanted only the former--go figure!). But you have to have a balance, and you get everyone to pay what's fair given their resources.

Anyway, it was very cool to see Fort Riley. Beautiful old place with limestone buildings.

No John Nagl, as he was speaking in PA that day, but I will meet up with him someday soon, after he resettles in DC in his new think tank gig. I expect John could be a political appointee in some new administration. I would like to see that a lot.

Nice piece on Jim Hart

ARTICLE: Combined Joint Task Force commander reflects on progress in Horn of Africa, By Zeke Minaya, Stars and Stripes, January 16, 2008

Nice, unambitious piece on Jim Hart, outgoing boss of CJTF-HOA, and my host there last spring. A very nice man, he is.

They don't speak for us

ARTICLE: Black Voters Generations Apart, By SHANNON McCAFFREY, AP, Jan 18, 2008

Same basic dynamic within the African-American community on their Vietnam/Boomer/Sixties generation: No offense, but they don't speak for us, say the thirtysomethings-and-below.

Last new book for now...

is Charlie Savage's brilliant, Takeover: The Return of the Imperial Presidency and the Subversion of American Democracy.

Well researched and very disturbing. Exhibit A why we could not afford a second Bush term.

Speaking at the 27th tactics symposium of the Advanced Aircraft Tactics Training Center

NOTE: Tom penned this on Tuesday, the 22nd of Jan

Got up, worked the kids and then worked out. Then finish off a column from yesterday, do the Bowflex, set out the trash, pack quick and shower for the trip.

I mention all that because yesterday morning I just slept in after a marathon of books on Monday ended with a big, well-deserved martini and a showing of "Sunshine" (I love all Danny Boyle flicks) in the theater, after all the kids were put to bed.

But today I had to get my act together and out the door to the airport.

Flew SWA to Midway and then KC. Plenty of weather and bumps, but I read a ton of mags, one WSJ and a good World Bank report, so I noticed nothing.

Picked up by a USAF officer (and blog reader) and driven to St. Joseph, historic frontier launching point for westward expansion and where Jesse James met his end.

My host is the 139th Airlift Wing and my job is to give the after-banquet address to cap off their 4-day tactics symposium.

So here I am on the raised dais, just left of Sen. Kit Bond doing his before-banquet remarks and I'm grinning through some of his comments, grimacing through a couple others, and wondering how it was I ended up at the head table.

Turns out my young officer driver pulled it off through Jenn when he was fortunate enough to find out I'd be in the vicinity. So here I am on the dais, signing books and waiting to speak at 2020, which is late for my preference (I think the perfect talk is 0900), but I guess it's no weirder to suddenly finding myself in that helo in Afghanistan or standing in front of the Great Pyramids with my Italian model girlfriend ...

No, wait a tick, that's Sarkozy!

Then panic!

I look over to my laptop, set up for the show, and spot that damn Mac message about an OS crash!

Almost new Mac, working off Leopard.

Then I remember: two days ago I download one of those cursed MS Office updates, which seem to cause this with me now every time!

I go with the local AV person's Gateway. Have to cut some of the trickier transitions down to size, but I simply cannot start a talk worrying about that crash message appearing.

This truly depresses me. I am almost ready to get a Dell for speaking gigs only. I would go only keynote, but the questions I have then are: Can you run PPT files on Keynote and vice versa? Because that's always what has scared me off from switching, given all the PCs I am forced to run on in various mil locations.

I remember the first step to take in repairing permissions when this happens (before reinstalling OS). Can anyone tell me how to do that? Where you find the function?

Two more books

Finally finished Elizabeth Economy's A River Runs Black on enviro damage in China. Took a few days on the elliptical trainer.

Today I read Harry G. Broadman's World Bank report, Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier. A fabulous book that justifies like crazy a bunch of things I've been saying for years on Asia being the logical extender of globalization there (including a recent column, yes?). Like most WB books, you highlight every word in the most excellent overview and then skim the rest (heavy data). Also like all crappy WB pubs, the spine split immediately upon opening, despite my attempts to relax it (a trick my brother Jerry taught me years ago). Deep thanks to Lexington Green on this recommendation!

Four to go

Henry Kissinger, White House Years
Liked it a lot. He's a great writer in his own way, and segments his high analysis neatly. What depressed me was how much of the volume is consumed by his Vietnam negotiations.

Richard Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon
Like most presidential memoirs (eg Clinton), the book is fabulous until he becomes president, and then it gets unduly boring.

George F. Kennan, Memoirs, 1925-1950
Carefully written and well presented, much like the man.

Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department
Like Nixon's, best prior to his top position as SECSTATE. Best part is his amazingly mischievous sense of humor. He has numerous laugh-out-loud bits.

Daniel Walker Howe, What Hath God Wrought: The Transformation of America, 1815-1848
One of the best American period histories I've ever read. Balances the organizational with the narrative and the macro analytical with the micro historical detail. I took the better parts of two days to read, I found it that good.

Four to go. Then on to the last three years of the blog, which is a couple thousand pages.

The impact of Gates

ARTICLE: Gates's voice moderating US policies: Stances on war, torture, Iran mark key shift, By Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, January 16, 2008

Good piece on how Robert Gates is becoming a realignment all his own for American foreign policy.

Enterra in Kurdistan

PRESS RELEASE: The Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq Selects Enterra Solutions, LLC, to Operate the Kurdistan Business Center (pdf)

Enterra sends this out today:

RESTON, Va. (January 22, 2008) - Enterra Solutions, LLC, has signed a services contract with the Minister of Trade for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to provide a full service Business Center in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The contract marks a new era for business and economic development in the Kurdistan region and provides a viable model for similar centers in other emerging market countries. Under the multi-year service contract, Enterra Solutions will establish and operate the Kurdistan Business Center in Erbil, Iraq, with a branch in Washington, DC and a future location in Europe.

The Center will provide a single point of contact for investors and businesses desiring to operate in the autonomous Kurdistan region. Through a number of connected activities, the Business Center will promote economic development and foreign direct investment in the Kurdistan region. The establishment of the Kurdistan Business Center is an integral part of Enterra Solutions' Development-in-a-Box[tm] offering to assist economic and social development in post-conflict and developing regions.

"The Kurdistan Business Center will be a major focal point for driving foreign direct investment and joint venture transactions in the region," explained Stephen F. DeAngelis, president and chief executive officer of Enterra Solutions. "By helping Iraqi businesses operate transparently using internationally accepted standards, the Business Center's goal is to attract and provide active assistance to international investors and companies outside of the region that desire to establish operations and/or partner with Kurdistan regional businesses."

The Center will identify international companies, facilitate and expedite investment and joint-venture transactions in the Kurdistan Region, especially agreements in support of a number of strategic critical infrastructure projects identified by the KRG. In addition, the Center's Erbil-based staff will provide marketing, technical expertise and ombudsman services aimed at attracting investment activities in the region. Enterra Solutions will train five local post-graduate students annually in sustainable economic development as part of a capacity building component of the contract. The Erbil-based Enterra Solutions' staff will be supported by the company's Washington Operations Center located in Reston, Virginia. Enterra Solutions is also establishing a Washington, DC branch of the KBC as well as a planned European branch office.

This Center will provide assistance to international investors, joint venture partners and Kurdistan regional industries seeking financing, economic advisory and marketing services and advice regarding working with strategic and financial partners, multi-lateral organizations and U.S. and KRG governmental organizations. The Kurdistan Business Center is the third major Enterra Solutions' project that has been awarded to the company recently in Iraq. The other two foundational projects, a multi-lingual business-to-business (B2B)/business-to-consumer (B2C) trading exchange and a multi-lingual call center, are being established to provide services under separate contracts with the Pentagon's Task Force to Improve Business and Stability Operations in Iraq, led by Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Business Transformation Paul Brinkley. The Task Force to Improve Business and Stability Operations in Iraq contracts were awarded to Enterra Solutions in November 2007 and January 2008, respectively.

Working with local entrepreneurs and international organizations, the Center expects to be a catalyst for job creation, especially in areas specifically targeted for development by the KRG: agriculture, energy, chemicals, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, banking and insurance services, construction materials, health, and education. The Business Center in Erbil will be the model for potential additional centers in the Kurdistan Region.

"The Business Center will be available to assist all regional businesses and international strategic and financial investors, but it will specifically concentrate on critical infrastructure and market sectors that are identified as competitively advantaged on a sustainable basis for the Kurdistan region," DeAngelis noted. "Progress in those areas will build much needed critical infrastructure and economic capabilities that should stimulate job creation, training and help anchor a diverse, vibrant and sustainable economy in the region."

To support its rapidly growing presence in Iraq, Enterra Solutions has entered into a set of unique strategic alliances with leading organizations: International Resources Group, Agility, One Network Enterprises and the UB Groups in the Kurdistan region. Additional partnerships with other international and regional companies will be announced in the coming weeks.

I felt the "Love"

Flew to Lost Wages early Sunday morn, a bit unstrung by an inner ear infection that I just barely got meds for hours before I flew--thanks to Vonne.

Jammed NWA to Minneapolis and then another to Las Vegas, then stretch limo to Mirage, which is one huge complex of hotel wings, casinos, bars, restaurants and theaters.

Get to my room around 2pm, work brief, and then check in with Heavy Duty Machine Association conference team regarding the Danny Gans (he does imitations) Theater at the Mirage. That's where l'll speak on a high stage bookended by giant screens.

Then back to watch Packers lose, then dinner with board of HDMA, then a brief visit to the minibar and downstairs to catch the Cirque de Soleil show on the Beatles called "Love."

One huge WOW there. Sat a few rows behind Billy Crystal.

Then I crashed (0230 my time), got up and did the AV check and then spoke from 0845 to 0945, followed by about 10 Q&A. Maybe 300-325 in theater. Very lavish and nice sound system (go figure).

Then I de-suit, catch return limo to ever-crowded airport and I'm leaving Las Vegas.

No lost wages for me, but sadness over Pack. Still, I've been telling people all year that I thought this year's team was like the 1994 Pack (lost NFC to Big D) rather than SB champs 1995 Pack, so I wish the G-Men well and hope McCarthy adequately dissects his horrible game plan.

The conversion proceeds

MONOGRAPH: A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq, By: Andrew R. Hoehn, Adam Grissom, David Ochmanek, David A. Shlapak, Alan J. Vick, Rand, 2007

Friend of mine in the Pentagon alerted me to this RAND definition of the Leviathan/SysAdmin division of labor by services: sea + air v. ground (or blues v. greens).

Remember Schopenhauer: ridiculed, then opposed violently, then accepted as conventional wisdom.

But, of course, Afghanistan and Iraq do most of the converting.

Just plain dumb

MIDDLE EAST: Bothersome Intel on Iran, By Michael Hirsh, NEWSWEEK, Jan 21, 2008

ARTICLE: A President’s Defender Keeps His Distance, By NAZILA FATHI, New York Times, January 8, 2008

Bush has his reality, but Ahmadinejad's deepening fall from grace with the Supreme Leader shows that denying Tehran its favorite enemy puts the onus on its leaders to deal with the internal situation. As the second piece declares: "international pressures are supplanted by internal disagreements."

Containment? Yes.

Some sanctions to work the Revolutionary Guards? You bet (but expect them to act up).

But no carrots means we get no play on these internal disagreements, and that means Bush's policies stalemate themselves.

As I have long stated: all Bush's strategy gets us is a nuclear-capable Tehran down the road that's disconnected and angry and willing to f--k up our efforts throughout the region--that after we remove its two greatest and close enemies from power!

That's just stupid, in strategic terms, to do so much to Iran's benefit and get nada in return. Just plain dumb.

Huge internal struggle against attacking Iran

ARTICLE: 'In Iran Reversal, Bureaucrats Triumphed Over Cheney Team,' By Jay Solomon and Siobhan Gorman, Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2008, Pg. 1

This is what I've said for a while: the IC in revolt and enough of JCS and DOD under Gates, plus Fallon, to tip the balance away from strikes.

This is a huge, untold struggle. First article I see yet that gets at the scope.

Truth on subs

POST: China's Subs: Six Patrols in 2007, By Noah Shachtman, Danger Room, January 09, 2008

Some useful skepticism.

Truth on subs is that they're only good at three things: go after shipping, go after each other, hold nukes.

The last one is still marginally useful in small numbers.

The shipping bit works only in long sustained major war. That one gets pretty creaky with time.

Going after each other still makes sense so long as rogues maintain some marginal capacity. But the numbers game that we and Japan enable vis-a-vis China is a complete waste of resources. Bad for us and bad for China and bad for Japan.

There are simply more useful fish to fry, but great power theorists love their theories and so we must "hedge" against each other, playing such useless games.

When was the last torpedo fired in anger? How many sub battles since WWII? Not Tom Clancy novels and not pinging, but actual sub-on-sub combat?

It's not a pretty picture--this historical reality, so better to stick with the academic theorists.

(Thanks: Terence Dodge)

Tom around the web

+ The Korea Times picked up last week's column.
+ Fishka linked it at Future Scanner.
+ gmgDesign linked it, too.

+ Fetal Minds linked Possibly the best single article I have ever read on Russia and embedded the TED video.
+ GeoWonk also embedded the TED video.
+ So did Communist Robot.

+ Publius Speaks linked Q&A: McCain?
+ And linked PDVSA now in food shipping business, thanks to Chavez.

+ Exurban League linked Really tired of dynasties.
+ et alli. linked Interesting map.
+ Small Wars Journal Blog linked Pessimistic and optimistic.
+ What I’ve Learned So Far linked A painful condemnation of the Bush Administration's failure to adjust to the insurgency in Iraq.

+ Dialectical Moose linked Two humiliating whiffs for Krauthammer.
+ zenpundit linked Flunk the SysAdmin, lose the Leviathan (up to 22 comments!).
+ Snark Noir mentions Tom, the Core and PNM.
+ The Newshoggers linked Re-balancing the Sunni-Shia mix in Iraq.
+ Soob has a round up entitled Life in the Gap Sucks.
+ Scott Barbeit mentions the Leviathan/SysAdmin split.
+ da Carol mentioned Tom and the Map (but after that, my Portuguese breaks down ;-)
+ Big Lizards invokes the Gap.

Follow the money

ARTICLE: The $1.4 Trillion Question, by James Fallows, Atlantic Monthly, January/February 2008

A pretty good piece that poses a fabulous question and then gives you a "Casino"-like tale of money movement. Like Scorsese's movie, then, the article intrigues and informs but is somewhat unsatisfying: the "what do we/they owe" question is never really addressed.

What Fallows doesn't address in China's vast surplus/savings is the huge and very real current sovereign debts and future mandates that are hidden in this development scheme: overseas resource dependencies demanding investment stakes, future aging costs, current and future enviro costs, future requirements to build out (and up) the poor interior, and so on.

Those are real sovereign liabilities because the people will expect some/much government help in these matters over time to ensure continued development and sustained movement up the product chain (gotta get as rich as possible before getting old).

Having said all that, Fallows' analysis of the government's logic is dead on. I suspect that, with all his time spent in China, we'll see a book that does a big turn in explaining China to America. That will be a huge journalistic endeavor, and most welcome from someone with his considerable narrative talents.

As for the larger strategic question, we owe China a quiet international security order within which to develop, and sufficient partnership so as to obviate too much defense spending on their part. Eventually, Deng's "grand compromise" of 1992 (PLA supports him on market acceleration in return for money and cover to modernize) must be tempered so that China doesn't field a military for a war that should never happen and which it could never win. It needs to field a SysAdmin-heavy force that partners with us in mutual dependence: we can't rule the peace with our Leviathan-heavy force, but they can't rule war with their Leviathan-lite force either, so we must cooperate in extending and protecting globalization to our mutual advantage..

We owe China this strategic understanding before the 5th/6th generations of Chinese leadership hit some of the fish-or-cut-bait moments that must inevitably arise for them in coming years.

Fallows hints at those underlying tensions at the end of the piece.

(Thanks: TurcoPundit)

Nice to have two actual races

ARTICLE: McCain Moves Into Lead; Obama Gains on Clinton, By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, Washington Post, January 14, 2008; Page A01

This becoming a character/values election over policy choices, I think McCain's elevation is good news for the Dems in the sense that he's not favored by many activists within his own party.

Still, having a race on both sides is actually quite nice, like my vote matters more than somebody else's dollar.

Another another book post

Gwyneth Cravens, Power to Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy
Interesting and provocative. You realize how badly nuclear power's been sold in this country, and how much bizarre disinformation is out there.

Robert Skidelsky, John Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman
Really great book. Keynes is the "grand economist" (his term) who is arguably the most intelligent grand strategist of the 20th century--the one guy who best sees war within the context of everything else.

Giovanni Arrighi, Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the Twenty-First Century
Frustratingly obtuse in all its Marxist BS, but it reminds me of why I loved studying it: like studying another language, it helps you understand your own better. A slew of interesting observations scattered throughout, but too much analysis is captive to declaring--as he must--the decline of the American capitalist world system. A perfect example of over-blowing the historic importance of the neocons. I mean, really, talk about a fart in the wind.

James A. Baker III, "Work Hard, Study . . . and Keep Out of Politics!"
It really is his best book. He writes just like he speaks, which is nice.

I am burning out on book reading!

Seven to go.