Another book post

John Lewis Gaddis, The Cold War: A New History
Interesting and off-beat enough to work for me. Sees the "everything else" nicely.

Burton Malkiel and Patricia Taylor, From Wall Street to the Great Wall: How Investors Can Profit from China's Booming Economy
Very bullish. Inside-out take on demographics that wowed me some. Lots of detail on financial markets there.

Kendrick A. Clements, Woodrow Wilson: World Statesman
It is amazing that there's no big bio out there on Wilson, just the B range stuff. This is the best of the lot. I tried a couple of others and gave up.

Nicholas Wapshott, Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher: A Political Marriage
Really good and very enjoyable to read. Great bios of both in the process. You can't help liking Reagan, but I was surprised how sympathetic Thatcher can be made, with the right writer.

The beat goes on ...

Not meant to be

We did not play well and the Giants were really fabulous, given the conditions. The G Men simply deserved to win and probably are the best team--right now--to face the Pats, and that's all that matters in the playoffs. So congrats to them.

We were just missing on O. Truth is, we're not a cold weather team any more. Just not what we're built for.

This week's column

Hoping for a meaningful election

Each GOP primary produces a new winner, none of them the longtime national frontrunner. Meanwhile, the Democrats feature a tight race between an African-American and a woman -- pure history in the making. It can't get any better than that, the upshot being I might actually cast a ballot that matters for the first time in my life!

Some background:

I've never lived in one of those early primary states. Though I've dutifully voted in the preliminaries, I always went into the voting booth knowing beforehand what the next day's headline would read. That's pretty boring for a political scientist.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Another books post

Amory Lovins et. Al, Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profits, Jobs, and Security
Chock full of great stuff. I participated in a brief bit at the Arlington Institute that generated some of the thinking in the book. I think it was a scenario drill, but it's so long ago I can't remember (2003). I do remember spending a chunk of time with Amory, though, and he always impresses.

Amory Lovins et. Al, Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution
Not as engaging, but more high level and worth perusing for its thinking on how badly we value natural resources.

Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed
Read it primarily for the China stuff, which is very well done. It's the best part of his book, actually.

T. R. Reid, Confucius Lives Next Door: What Living in the East Teaches Us About Living in the West
Simple thesis with lots of storytelling. Reid is a very good writer.

Sheng-Wei Wang, China's Ascendancy: An Opportunity Or a Threat? (What Every American Should Know About China)
Written with an obvious bias that I approve of, but also a superb compendium of issues and history. I am quoted at length, but what I really valued in the book is the reference book-style presentation. You learn a lot very fast reading this book. I found myself highlighting a lot of material for future use.

Adam B. Ulam, Understanding the Cold War: A Historian's Personal Reflections
Reread this for the stuff on detente. Adam's analysis was always very trenchant.

Carl Sandburg, Abraham Lincoln: The Prairie Years and the War Years
Obviously a good book.

A nice analytic approach ...

MONOGRAPH: Building Partner Capabilities for Coalition Operations, By: Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Nancy E. Blacker, Renee Buhr, James McFadden, Cathryn Quantic Thurston, Anny Wong, RAND, 2007

to thinking through how much of the SysAdmin burden can be shared systematically with allies.

(Thanks: BW Jones)

Federalism helps the poor

ARTICLE: The rich usually want it, but it's the poor who need devolution, By CHARLES ONYANGO- OBBO, The East African, January 7, 2008

This is a profound argument from the poor for federalism and the end of more unitary states.

To me, this is Africa recognizing it needs to remap itself preemptively, much like Iraq is forced/enticed to do the same: better to devolve to more suitably small packages that allow more flexible, bottom-up-derived answers to the challenges/opportunities posed by globalization's progressive advance.

(Thanks: Michael Griffin)

... From the Sea coming home

POST: A Bold New Idea For a Naval Humanitarian Force, Information Dissemination, January 2, 2008

ARTICLE: A Great White Fleet for the 21st Century, By David K. Richardson, Lane V. Packwood, and Daniel E. Aldana, Proceedings, January 2008 (free registration required)

Worth the read, and note the footnotes [on Proceedings piece].

There is a cluster of admirals who moved the Navy in this direction and they're all highly linked inter-personally: Gary Roughead (former PACFLT and now Chief of Naval Ops), Harry Ulrich (just retired, last position was NATO naval head), Mike Mullen (former CNO, now Chairman), and John Morgan (now N3/5, or head of Navy policy).

Obviously, I couldn't be happier to see this sort of thinking emerge. ... From the Sea finally coming home.

More books

Elizabeth Economy, The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future
Very solid and worth reading.

Barrett Tillman, What We Need: Extravagance and Shortages in America's Military
Bit too casual in language, but very intelligent and covers the gamut well.

Bruce Kuklick, Blind Oracles: Intellectuals and War from Kennan to Kissinger
Excellent book that really stitches history together well.

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds
I was disappointed with this. Huge claim up front and then an entire book of caveats. Crowds are smart, except when ....

Dan Gillmor, We the Media: Grassroots Journalism by the People, for the People
Very nice, and surprisingly still up to date given the 04 pub date.

Michael E. Marti, China and the Legacy of Deng Xiaoping: From Communist Revolution to Capitalist Evolution.
This was spectacular and just what I needed.

About 15 books more to go.

Iranian suspicions

ARTICLE: DEBKAfile Exclusive: USS Harry Truman carrier on high alert for repeat Iranian incident linked to Bush Middle East tour, January 13, 2008

Rob Johnson's analysis fits my suspicions to a "T."

Ahmadinejad ... partly due the US strategy of "backing off" is losing public favor quickly. However, he retains significant influence with the Revolutionary Guards, which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seems to have lost any control of (if they ever had any). So, taking a play from the old "Clintonian" playbook he tries's to "change the headline." He has the little boats start to stir up a "Devil USA or David and Goliath" incident. I assume he actually wants someone to get killed, so he can play the Iranian savior again.

Predictions coming true

ARTICLE: China, U.S. Make Plans for North Korea Collapse, Reports Say, By Bradley K. Martin, Bloomberg, January 11, 2008

As Brad says, more evidence.

With this and the State Dept. holding firm on Taiwan and the NIE chilling Bush's push on Iran, my 2005 Esquire "Mr. President" piece is looking O-tay!

It basically said: avoid the Taiwan scenario, chill on Iran, and prepare to liquidate North Korea.

(Thanks: Brad Lena)

Some profound new connectivity ...

ARTICLE: Fast cargo rail link planned from Beijing to Hamburg: report, AFP, January 10, 2008

between Asia and Europe, with Russia learning to sell its geography better. Wait until the Arctic gets passable. Then Russia's stock goes up a lot more.

(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)

Balancing the good, the bad, and the ugly with Bush

ARTICLE: "In Global Battle On AIDS, Bush Creates Legacy," by Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times, 5 January 2007, p. A1.

EDITORIAL: "Rehabilitating Libya," New York Times, 5 January 2007, p. A20.

We hear constantly about the "ugly' with Bush, and there's way too much to explore there. But there's plenty of "okay" (like Libya, which we scared out of its nuke program but not into a particularly good space so long as the old man lives on, as well as Kyoto, which finally moves into more sensible space on including rising Asia) and some notable goods (I love the Millennium Challenge model of focusing on threshold status for emerging markets and Bush's legacy on both AIDS overseas and handling China is really wonderfully positive).

So give the man and the administration some due.

Be careful what you wish for in cracking down on immigration

ARTICLE: "Strict immigration law rattles Okla. businesses: Undocumented workers have left by the thousands, creating hole in economy," by Emily Bazar, USA Today, 10 Janury 2007, p. 1A.

Tough state law "1804" basically makes all the migrant workers disappear, shifting them--I would suspect--to the next state over.

So do employers in OK.

As the state's nursery association president put it: "Some went to Texas, some went to Arkansas. They just left. Those states don't have 1804."

So Oklahoma become a national laboratory in the best American tradition: propose a rule and let it play out.

A show of farce in the Gulf

Do the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fast boat shenanigans in the Gulf signal a fractured leadership? Or is it a very weird good cop-bad cop signaling (Ayatollah signals one thing, and has Guards signal something else)?

Either way it just comes off as odd and indicative of a regime that's not yet serious about behaving like a big boy in the region.

The Iranian navy, according to my CENTCOM contacts, interacted with our ships normally prior to the weird show of farce by the Guards, and that makes you wonder about the right hand not having a clue about the left one.

Whether it reflects disunity or disingenuousness doesn't really matter. The Ayatollah made it clear just like Khomeni did with Carter: no deals possible with the U.S. until the current devil leaves office.

But even then, expect such shows of farce to pick up even as any detente emerges: if you're a leader, you have to show your people that any opening to America must be accompanied by troublemaking that the revolution is alive and well.

Remember: only Nixon goes to China.

Why do it with naval forces (like grabbing the Brit sailors a while back)? The seas are a great place, and a relatively safe and fungible one, to do this sort of signaling: both the FU! stuff and the "hey, hiyadoing!" stuff.

So it bears watching, this dynamic.

I had a dream

And wrote it down as a sked: I would start writing in early Feb and crank one chapter per 10 days through mid-May, then give Mark a month to digest, and then edit a chapter a week with him through July and into August.

Putnam (Neil) no liked, saying it would delay the book's release as planned in Jan/Feb 09.

So I reconsidered and realized I'd rather pursue the same blitzing sked I employed with both PNM and BFA: a chapter every five days and editing two chapters a week. That way I write in Feb and Mar and we edit in April and May and turn in the first final draft at the beginning of June.

What does that mean? I will be consumed by writing in Feb and Mar, cutting all extraneous stuff severely.

Enterra in Iraq

Enterra put out this press release yesterday:

Enterra Solutions, LLC, Signs Pentagon Contract to Provide Call Center Services in Iraq

RESTON, Va. (January 16, 2008) - Enterra Solutions, LLC, announced today that it will establish a multi-lingual Call Center in Iraq that will provide customer service support for Iraqi manufacturing companies. As the next step in Enterra Solutions' Development-in-a-Box[tm] solution for emerging markets, the Call Center will support both Iraqi state-owned enterprises and private industries furthering economic development and growth in the region. Call Center services are initial steps towards making Iraqi businesses more attractive in the global marketplace. Enterra Solutions plans to start offering Call Center services within 90 days.

"By providing cost effective, world-class customer service we can help Iraqi businesses make their products more desirable in the domestic Iraqi marketplace and, eventually, to international markets as well," said Stephen F. DeAngelis, president and chief executive officer of Enterra Solutions. "Our ultimate goal is to make the global economy available to Iraq."

Building the Regional Economy

Enterra Solutions' signed an agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense's Task Force to Improve Business and Stability Operations in Iraq, established by the Business Transformation Agency (BTA), to provide Call Center services. Under the direction of Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Brinkley, Enterra Solutions will support the BTA in its overall goal to employ Iraqis in Iraq and promote sustainable economic development.

Enterra Solutions will provide access to a pool of shared service resources to Iraqi companies that would not otherwise have the economic resources to set up centers on their own. The Call Center will be primarily staffed by Iraqi customer service personnel and will offer services in English, Kurdish and Arabic.

"The Iraqi Call Center is the model for a program we intend to offer in other areas of the Middle East and Africa," explained DeAngelis. "We will be working with local providers as well as our strategic partners to establish this service."

Additional Developments

Last November, Enterra Solutions announced it would establish a business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) trading exchange service to help stimulate the Iraqi economy. The Iraq trading exchange will provide services under a different BTA contract to assist Iraqi companies with selling their products world-wide. Although these services are provided under separate contracts, they are complementary and the Call Center will support the B2B and B2C Trading Exchange. Enterra Solutions also recently announced a series of strategic alliances that will support work in Iraq.

Q&A: McCain?

Craig Gelormini wrote in to ask:

I was just curious as I have been reading your books who you would like to see elected as president in 2008. McCain seems to me to be the closest inline with the vision of the future that you put forth in the books, but I also know you have a Democratic tendency. I apologize if you have already stated this on your website, I haven't had a chance to go through all of it yet. Thank you very much for your time and for your books. I always enjoy being shocked learning about something that I thought I previously had a pretty good grasp of.

Tom writes:

I worry about McCain's tendency toward temper and political vendettas and how that combativeness translates into a confrontational foreign policy. I fear he'd be hard-line on rising New Core powers (the BRIC) and dial the GWOT up instead of down. In short, I fear too much Clausewitz and too little Sun Tzu.

I see so many global forces right now pushing America to a number of realignment opportunities that allow us to marginalize transnational terrorism effectively and win under conditions we can be proud of--plus thrive economically within.

I haven't seen much in McCain's speeches that indicates he sees a similar world, so I doubt your hopeful analysis.

Whether it's McCain or Hillary or Rudy, I see this as the last Boomer/Vietnam era president, so patience, that most important strategic skill set, is in order.

Flunk the SysAdmin, lose the Leviathan

ARTICLE: The Army's Other Crisis: Why the best and brightest young officers are leaving, By Andrew Tilghman, Washington Monthly, December 2007

Why this analysis matters?

If we don't master the SysAdmin, we lose the talent to do the Leviathan anyway. These officers see the pointlessness.

(Thanks: Jamie Ruehl)

Classic problem for a classically fake state

ARTICLE: Some fear Pakistan could splinter apart, By Paul Wiseman, USA TODAY, January 9, 2008

I told you they were planning big-time for the endgame

ARTICLE: China planning to secure North Korea's nuclear arsenal: report, by P. Parameswaran, AFP, Jan 8, 2008