A show of farce in the Gulf

Do the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fast boat shenanigans in the Gulf signal a fractured leadership? Or is it a very weird good cop-bad cop signaling (Ayatollah signals one thing, and has Guards signal something else)?

Either way it just comes off as odd and indicative of a regime that's not yet serious about behaving like a big boy in the region.

The Iranian navy, according to my CENTCOM contacts, interacted with our ships normally prior to the weird show of farce by the Guards, and that makes you wonder about the right hand not having a clue about the left one.

Whether it reflects disunity or disingenuousness doesn't really matter. The Ayatollah made it clear just like Khomeni did with Carter: no deals possible with the U.S. until the current devil leaves office.

But even then, expect such shows of farce to pick up even as any detente emerges: if you're a leader, you have to show your people that any opening to America must be accompanied by troublemaking that the revolution is alive and well.

Remember: only Nixon goes to China.

Why do it with naval forces (like grabbing the Brit sailors a while back)? The seas are a great place, and a relatively safe and fungible one, to do this sort of signaling: both the FU! stuff and the "hey, hiyadoing!" stuff.

So it bears watching, this dynamic.

Comments

[nykrindc]

Given recent articles on the internal politics of Iran, particularly the Ayatollah's refusal to stop criticism of Ahmedinejad and his low poll numbers following the U.S.'s reduction of tensions (following NIE), it is not inconceivable that Ahmedinejad is using the Guard as a means to provoke the US into some type of reaction. This would accomplish a couple of things. First, it would rally nationalist sentiment in Iran, and by raising the specter of confrontation with the US and secondly, it would force the Ayatollah to once again tamp down on criticism of the President, as he has done several times when tensions where high, since he considers unity of great importance when facing the US.

At the time of this incident, or at least when it became publicly known, the Ayatollah, according to some reports, was signaling a willingness to open ties with the US. That makes me think that the Guard's provocation was no accident and is indeed, as you say partly a product of divided leadership, with Ahmedinejad using some elements to improve his internal political fortunes.

[Michael]

Ayatollahs and the regular military on one side, Ahmadinejad and the Republican guard on the other; I wonder if a showdown between the two is coming?

[Bruce Sterling]

Can't we dispense with the Nixon going to China analogy?. Unless Iran and the US have a common enemy the analogy is completely useless.

[Ted O'Connor]

I agree it is puzzling behavior on the part of the Iranians. But we have to remember that our warships are cruising past their shores. National pride has to play some part in this. I don't think l would like to be having lunch on the deck of the Hotel Del here in San Diego and find myself looking at Iranian missile cruisers on the horizon. I don't think I would be happy with Iranian sailors boarding and searching ships headed to San Diego harbor. In that part of the world our power is respected and resented at the same time.

[Javaid Akhtar]

"Can't we dispense with the Nixon going to China analogy?. Unless Iran and the US have a common enemy the analogy is completely useless."

You had a commom enemy in the USSR and then we loved the Iranians.Then Taleban and Alqaeda come along and Iran is battling by proxy a new and vicious enemy for a long time by itself .Saddam Hussein , former US regional bully, lost the plot and needed to be contained...who could you have possibly have called?...A million Iranians marched in sympathy over 911...was anyone connecting any dots in the US?Obviously not...just sharpening your sticks to poke their eyes out......" you're next after Iraq..." strategy is the anti-Nixon/China doctrine.Instead of seeing a small opening and taking a bold step...why not see a large opening and just run in the opposite direction and jump of a tall cliff.Sharpening more sticks as a reply to the Iranian offer in 2003 was more great visionary statemanship.All at the time when your regional underpants were falling and many vunerable parts coming into open view.You could'nt make it up....its so bizarre.