An Obama run would be good for everyone

OP-ED: Run Now, Obama, By George F. Will, Washington Post, December 14, 2006; Page A31

Will's analysis is more tactical than what I offered a while back in my column, but, as usual, when George puts aside his partisan his analysis is quite sound.

I think, listening to Barack on C-SPAN in NH, that the decision has already been made, and I think it's a good one. This way, if Hillary wins the nom, it'll be for good reasons. If not, also for good reasons. Either way, the Dems get a better nom race.

Plus, the specter of debating whether America is more ready for an African-American (albeit only half of one, because his mom was white) or for a woman will energize the Dem's race (neither choice exists for the GOP, and please, spare me the Condi talk). History says the latter (look at governors and Congress and you'll see far more women than blacks), but Barack's got that JFK-like mojo running, as he's the only post-Ike boomer out there running.

So it's win-win, as far as I can see, for the Dems and the American political system alike.

Thanks to my wife, Vonne, for sending this.

See Dick not talk

ARTICLE: Rice rejects talks with Iran, Syria on Iraq, CNN, December 15, 2006

ARTICLE: Rice Rejects Overture To Iran And Syria, By Glenn Kessler and Robin Wright, Washington Post Staff, December 15, 2006; Page A01

Quelle surprise!

Talking-point Condi's been trotted out to point out what we've known all along: Dick Cheney won't talk to Syria or Iran, no matter what his former bureaucratic nemesis James Baker may propose. God damn it! Dick's president now!

Meanwhile, W. remains only a heartbeat away...

Thanks to an anonymous official person and my wife, Vonne, for sending these in.

Africa Command plan, as predicted

ARTICLE: Pentagon calls for new African command, By PAULINE JELINEK, Houston Chronicle, Dec. 14, 2006

The whole package as I predicted, with the rationales as predicted: fight heads south and we better get there before China gets too influential!

Thanks to Seth Benge for sending this in.

The Indy layover...

...Is too short, but the next destination is too much fun to delay: Hawaii with the family to finally mark my 20th anniversary with Vonne.

Quick question (email me): what's the drill with TSA if you've got serious hardware inside your body? This will be son Kevin's first time through airport security...

Another week, another blur, mostly because every spare moment sees my head buried in my laptop on the Fast Company piece.

Tuesday I fly commuter to Philly and spend the night pitching potential investors with Steve in the basement of a neurologist. That was fascinatiing and so quintessentially American. Really stunning to think Steve's done this non-stop for three-plus years (all angel investors for us to date), and I was really honored that he now trusts me enough for this high-pressure, high-risk/reward venue. I haven't met an audience yet I can't handle in 16 years and yet, no question this one was uniquely challenging. No fools, so no money easily parted. Still, way cool to be pitching with the money thing so close at hand. Usually more distance in my line of work (like the fabled "out years" in a Fed budget).

Wednesday Steve and I drive up to NYC and lunch with former Under Secretary of Navy Jerry Hultin (Clinton), who's now president of Brooklyn Polytechnic. We're trying, among many things, to get those sensors actually slapped up on the bottom of the Verrazano Bridge!

UN tower as Steve and I pass by in NYC on Wednesday.

General Assembly building

Wednesday night I fly to Knoxville on two commuters out of LGA and have a drink with Enterra's man in Oak Ridge, Shane Deichman.

Up way early on Thurs for Thought Leadership meeting at 0700 at the lab, followed by five-hour monthly "huddle" of the National Security Directorate there, which is always interesting and lively.

Some interviews squeezed in along the way: 1) career advice to a Harvard grad in international relations (always must do), 2) taped-over-phone with NPR's Laurie Sydell on my "appearance" in Second Life" way back when (before it became cool for people like Arianna Huffington to show up), 3) Steve Hedges of the Chicago Trib on Rumsfeld, 4) some NC State student reporter doing profile on alum Gen. Tom Metz, and 5) research interview with CSIS demographer Neil Howe on global impact of aging trends (you may remember me citing his work on the echo-boomers near the end of BFA).

Editing the Fast Company piece now and getting some Enterra paperwork out door before packing my gear for vacation. Have ton of articles collected for blog, but will probably spend flights working Xmas eve column in advance and since I don't like to work too much on vacations, don't expect to hear much outta me until after Xmas...

One more thing the Pentagon's good for

ARTICLE: Joint Chiefs Advise Change In War Strategy: Leaders Seek No Major Troop Increase, Urge Shift in Focus to Support of Iraqi Army, By Robin Wright and Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, December 14, 2006; Page A01

On the Joint Chiefs' recommendation, I don't see much difference from the ISG. In sum, it also says pullback from combat, train up Iraqis and support them, and... Oh yeah... always hunt terrorists.

I think we have a consensus, but since the Chiefs won't comment on dialogue with Syria or Iran (foreign policy turf), this way Bush can say he's listening to his generals while he blows off the ISG's call for a regional security/diplomatic initiative.

That, my friends, is some military cover.

Old school state-on-state action

ARTICLE: Somalia’s Islamists and Ethiopia Gird for a War, By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and MARK MAZZETTI, New York Times, December 14, 2006

The news on Somalia and Ethiopia gearing up for some old school state-on-state action reminds us of the tasks ahead with Africa, which are substantial.

Then again, if you're in the war business, this is the emergent market.

The Gap can be brought up, so long as we continue to grow the Core

ARTICLE: The Global Poor Are Getting Richer, Faster, By James Peron, TCS Daily, 13 Dec 2006

Great write up of report. What I can't tell is what their definition of "developing" is. If China and India included, numbers encourage less.

Still, it shows the Gap can be brought up, so long as we continue to grow the Core.

May use this report on an upcoming article, so thanks a lot Nathan Machula.

Finished the Fast Company first draft today at 6k.

Call (Saudis' bluff)

ARTICLES: Saudis Say They Might Back Sunnis if U.S. Leaves Iraq, By HELENE COOPER, New York Times, December 13, 2006

As far as I'm concerned, nothing re-energizes the Big Bang better right now that calling in the Saudis' bluff/promise on Sunniland support. They refuse to fix (so far those pricks only build a fence on their border), so let's help them step up to the plate and fight Iran for us.

Better to socialize locally, and get Al Qaeda's real target far more in the game.

We have to give up our China fear-hopes to fund the SysAdmin

ARTICLE: Army, Marine Corps To Ask for More Troops, By Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, December 13, 2006; Page A01

Marines and Army are going to hit Gates up hard on more troops both ASAP and permanent. This will be a fish-or-cut-bait moment for Gates, because programs of record (that expensive stuff we buy) will be threatened--thus my argument that Gates's take on China is crucial.

If Gates can go easy on China (following reports that he will go the way of mentor Scowcroft versus what one might imagine are his spook tendencies) then all shifts are possible. If not, then you'll hear the "blip" argument on Iraq (Iraq is just a blip, strategically speaking--as in, something you recover from later but do not permanently adjust to, thus the odd bit where China hawks align themselves with defeatist-pullout arguments), then the ground-pounders continue to be screwed.

How 'clear' is your definition of victory?

ARTICLE: Americans Say U.S. Is Losing War: Public, Politicians Split on Iraq Panel's Ideas,
By Peter Baker and Jon Cohen, Washington Post, December 13, 2006; Page A01

The news that most Americans think we're losing is both telling and sad. Telling because it means we're losing this 4GW struggle. Sad because we've not educated our own citizens as to what "victory" would look like. Obviously, it wouldn't look like Iraq does now, but it won't look that terribly different for a while either, because as we learned in the Balkans, some blood-letting and some self-separation is inevitable.

Truth is, as ugly as the Balkans were, that's "victory"--plain and real. And no, it doesn't look like V-E or V-J day. In fact, victory comes years after the last acts of mass violence have ended (during which time countless scores are settled on an individual basis--either legally or extra-legally).

But Americans define victory in this context as one thing: our deaths end and we leave. Done fast, it's victory, no matter how meaningless the outcome. Done slow, it's a loss no matter what good is achieved.

Is that unrealistic? Sure. But we like our wars like our movies: clear winners and clear losers and all wrapped up within our 24-hour media cycle.

Writing like a demon

Day lost to 4K on the Fast Company piece.

Warren's threatening to command a piece for him as penance for my treachery!

I'm happy with the piece so far, meaning it feels like I'm stretching arguments in new ways and into new territory.

More bodies or more jobs?

ARTICLE: Experts Advise Bush Not to Reduce Troops: President Looking Beyond Study Group's Plan, By Michael A. Fletcher and Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, December 12, 2006; Page A01

ARTICLE: To Stem Iraqi Violence, U.S. Aims to Create Jobs, By Josh White and Griff Witte, Washington Post, December 12, 2006; Page A01

You might think the "more bodies" argument from the military experts should hold sway, but instead read the far more stunning article that says our personnel in Iraq are finally going to prioritize job creation like crazy. Be amazed to read about the 200 factories the CPA closed, helping create a 70 percent unemployment rate that fuels the insurgency and sectarian strife today. Listen to Pete Chiarelli, who cracked this code on infrastructure and utilities during his first tour, say that more jobs beats more soldiers right now.

I wrote this so long ago I can't even tell you which book it appeared in: "Jobs are the exit strategy in Iraq."

Flabbergasting to think how little priority this goal has received up to now. Few things describe the crux of our postwar occupation better.

There are many ways to skin the Gap

POST: Ahmadinejad May Be Heading for His First Major Political Defeat, by Amir Taheri, Arab News

TM has been tracking this election with a lot of concern, saying it could portend much about Iran's future. He was right, but his pessimism seems--as both of us are glad to note now--unfounded (knock on wood!).

Ahmadinejad is like Iran's Gingrich: very exciting trajectory but unlikely to last long.

TM, originator (for me at least) of the phrase soft-kill, is now feeling more optimistic.

Let that be a lesson for him and others in the same way the USSR's rapid collapse was for this (still) recovering Soviet scholar.

There are many ways to skin the cat--or the Gap, for that matter.

I think we're not anticipating success effectively enough with Iran. We may be under the delusion that our hard stance is holding sway, but it's really the Iranian people themselves delivering the change (no pretense on direct electoral power, but read between the lines and note how the mullahs do note the social signals from below), thus they remain the essential target of the soft-kill strategy (which works already far more than we realize, so cut off from Iran are we!).

Thanks to TM for sending this in.

The shifting global oil markets

SOURCE: Department of Energy's International Energy Outlook 2006, found online at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html

The IEO is always to be taken with a grain of salt, especially the long projections into the future. What is more interesting is how the numbers in current years and in the deep out-years change by issue. For example, until recently, both North America (basically the U.S.) and Asia took larger percentages of the Persian Gulf's oil (closer to two-thirds for Asia and closer to one-fifth for North America). Now each is down quite a bit (Asia takes just over 50% and North America a mere 11%). Who's picking up the slack?

Non-OECD ROW, which translates roughly as the oil-importing Gap (Non-Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development Rest-of-World). The oil-importing Gap accounted for a whopping 26% of Persian Gulf exports in 2003 (the year of last measure; or 5.9 of 22.5mbd), but will see that percentage drop to about 22% in 2030 (7.4 of 34.3mbd), due largely to Asia's growth.

The key numbers as I cull them:

-->North America takes 11% of PG's oil in 2003 (2.5 of 22.5mbd, or millions of barrels a day) and will take 10% in 2030 (3.5 of 34.3mbd)

-->Asia, both OECD and developing, took 50 percent of PG oil in 2003 (11.4 of 22.5mbd), and will take 58% in 2030 (20 of 34.3mbd)

-->Viewed from the perspective of the importer, the PG accounts for 19% of North America's imports in 2003 (2.5 of 13.5mbd), and in 2030 the PG will account for 18% (3.5 of 19.4mbd)

-->The PG accounts for 63% of Asian imports (and 32% of China's mere 2.8mbd) in 2003 (11.4 of 18mbd) and will account for the same percentage in 2030 (20 of 31.5). The percentage of China's imports from the PG will rise dramatically from 32% in 2003 (0.9 of 2.8mbd) to 53% in 2030 (5.8 of 10.9mbd). And yes, that means China's imports will more than triple between 2003 and 2030.

-->Africa OPEC (west and north) exports 1.7mbd to North America in 2003 and will export the same absolute number in 2030. China's total 0.3mbd in 2003 will rise to 1.6mbd in 2030, or basically our equal. In 2003 China and North America both get about 12% of their imports from Africa. In 2030, the projection says that share will drop to about 8% for North America, but rise to 15% for China.

-->The PG accounts for 43% of world trade in 2003 (22.5 of 52.8mbd), and that share is predicted to rise to just 44% in 2030 (34.3 of 77.3mbd).

-->Non-OECD (New Core + Gap) sucked down 20.4mbd in 2003, but will see that amount rise to 37.3mbd by 2030, a jump from 39% of global imports to 48%. In absolute terms, an increase of 83%. Developing Asia, viewed alone, accounts for most of that growth, jumping from 9.9mbd to 22.3 (or from 19% of the world's imports to 29%).

What does this say?

Europe and America together take about 20% of the PG's oil today, whereas Asia takes half and the ROW gets 30%. In 2030 the West proper will take about the same 20%, while Asia takes out almost 60% and the ROW makes do on about 20%.

Europe is more dependent on the PG than the U.S. is. In 2003 it accounted for 25% of Europe's imports and in 2030 that percentage will rise to 28%. North America will sit steady at just under 20% of its imports from the Middle East (with the true U.S. percent closer to about 15%, according to other sources.)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that for 2005, total U.S. oil supply broke down as follows: 55% from North America and 12% from South America. Another 14% from Africa and 4% from Europe/Russia. The Middle East accounted for 15%.

Looking at it this way, I would say about 70% of U.S. oil comes from pretty stable places (I know, Chavez talks, but he still sells), with only 30 percent coming from the Middle East and Africa. Judging by these projections, that percentage will stay roughly the same in the future.

Meanwhile, you could say China's imports are over 40% dependent on the Middle East and Africa today (43%), with that percentage rising to almost 70% dependent (68%) in 2030.

So to sum up, U.S. dependency on foreign oil is about 70-30 safe-to-unsafe today, and that will likely remain stable in coming years. China's, however, is about 60-40 safe-to-unsafe today, reversing to about 70-30 unsafe-to-safe in 2030.

I like a nice 70-30 split, you know, like the Chinese like to grade Mao and Stalin--as in, 70 percent good, 30 percent bad.

Here ends my data diddling. Gotta start the Fast Company piece.

Running the Balkans backwards

ARTICLE: For Iraq's Sunnis, Conflict Closes In: Mixed Neighborhoods Unravel as Shiite Militiamen Expand Violence, By Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, December 11, 2006; Page A01

This is a sign that the Balkans-backward scenario unfolds (dictator toppled, then sectarian strife leading to effective splits). Experts keep saying this is unacceptably bloody, but this is the default pathway earned by the Sunnis and Baathists--the same narrowing choice forced upon the Serbs.

And once Sunniland becomes the playground for the jihadists,then the Big Bang would be restarted, with "moderate" Sunni dictatorships on the chopping block.

How many map lines get redrawn then?

Problem is, Bush can't decide to fix Sunni and accept Shiia revival regionally. He wants to have his cake and barf it too.

Every Man A Foreign Policy

ARTICLE: Backstory: To help Cambodians is Bernie's law: Whether it's red tape or red carpet, former Newsweek foreign correspondent Bernie Krisher will stomp on it to get his way, By Tibor Krausz, The Christian Science Monitor, November 30, 2006

Pretty neat example of another guy with his own foreign policy!

Thanks to Eddie for sending this in.

The "slim" column on Knoxville

Note: for some reason Knoxville cut my column down considerably, erasing virtually every aside, many of which were quite important to the story's meaning.

Why? I have no idea, especially since I turned in the usual 720.

Go to Scripps if you want to read the full text, which I consider to be a much better version.

Today's column

Nation building on our plate

Incoming Secretary of Defense Robert Gates declares one of his goals will be improving our military's performance in postwar environments. It's tempting to assume any pullback from Iraq signals the end of messy nation-building efforts, but recent history says otherwise, making Gates' commitment vitally important.

During the Cold War, America engaged in nation building once every decade, but since then it's been closer to once every couple of years, especially when you consider the inevitable splintering of fragile states.

Read on at KnoxNews
Read on at Scripps Howard

Also seen on:
+ Capitol Hill Blue

Tom around the web [updated]

Ok, this weblog mess has got me really behind. So, for all of the links I have stored up, I'm just going to list the weblog linked to the post that links to Tom.

But, had you noticed I turned on Trackbacks to see how it went? Seems to be going ok so far. So let's list the posts that trackbacked to Tom first:

+ The Castle Argghhh
+ The Moderate Voice (1)
+ The Moderate Voice (2)
+ The American Mind

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program ;-)

+ China Law Blog
+ Strategy Unit
+ The Moderate Voice (again)
+ Asia Logistics Wrap
+ ZenPundit
+ The Glittering Eye
+ Transitioning from Ship to Ship
+ futuramb blog
+ new turcopundit
+ The Moderate Voice (4)
+ et alli.
+ PurpleSlog
+ Ernest
+ Dreaming 5GW
+ Outside the Beltway
+ COCKALORUM
+ Wake up Americans

Thanks to one and all, especially The Moderate Voice ;-)

update: I found these links squirreled away, too.

+ Indistinct Union
+ New World Notes (Second Life)
+ Boing Boing (picking up the New World Notes post)
+ Global Cop
+ JP
+ Looking Both Ways with Tobias Stone
+ Reason
+ Congressman John Hall (got this link from Reason)
+ Fester's Place
+ We've got bigger problems than a butter shortage

Now I'm done for real ;-)

The week that was ...

DATELINE: Indy, 9 December 2006

A blur to surpass most blurs ... with photos to be stuck in by Sean when he gets the chance.

Monday I got up feeling awfully bad from the night before (fear it was some seafood), but had to get my ass through the day, which mostly involved getting down to the Florida panhandle (Pensacola to be exact).

So a couple of flights (through Atlanta), during which I penned the weekend column (editing it over the next day). I get to the Gulf-side resort (place smacked of being a spring break hangout--you just got that "shining" of lots of college-age sexapades: "Come play with us, Daaanny!") and conk out about midnight, after a nice workout.

This is sunrise on Gulf Coast from vantage point of my hotel balcony at Fort Walton Beach near Hurlburt AFB where I keynoted NATO conference on PSYOPS Tuesday morn.

Up really early on Tuesday, I work out again (the high point of my discipline for the week) and then drive to Hurlburt Field, where the US Air Force's special ops command is, as is Joint Special Ops University, where I spent the morning keynoting a NATO conference of PYSOPs experts/practitioners.

Then jump in car and dash back to Pensacola airport for two flights up to LaGuardia. Cab into town and have spectacular dinner with Mark Warren and Steve DeAngelis, where we plot various lines concerning Steve's book proposal. We knock off at 1030 and then Steve pilots us back to Yardley PA in his car. I hit the hay at 0100.

Escape from New York with Steve after late dinner. The tree at Rockefeller Tues night from the street as we pass by.

Up early on Wednesday for meeting with biz dev guy from Brooklyn Polytechnic (actually, just known as Polytechnic U now), and then some office work.

Then Steve and I drive to DC, expecting a meeting at the National Intelligence Council, but that falls apart to--no surprise--the ISG report coming out and triggering this and that across the various bureaucracies.

So I swim and workout and take a dinner with Steve. Then we do a board meeting phone conference call that goes deep into the night.

After going to bed late yet again and getting up early yet again, Thursday begins with a visit to some Intelligence Community seniors at Bolling AFB. That went well.

Then Steve and I check out some office space for Enterra's Washington ops center, because we're growing out of our current space.

After Mexican lunch, we bolt in Steve's car to Bethesda for meeting with 15 or so of Lockheed Martin's corporate HQ strategic planners. I give them a quick brief and the conversation takes off with Development-in-a-Box. By the time Steve's done explaining Enterra, the top guy in the room has designated four lines of future potential collaboration. That meeting felt good from top to bottom.

Another workout and I try to hit a movie but can't find one (Steve's got yet another dinner), so I wander into the Pentagon Centre Borders and sign a bunch of paperbacks. Then dinner in my room.

Up way early on Friday for meeting at Accenture's HQ. Then a quick all-hands at Enterra's Washington office. Then a dinner to get a hugely important new employee to ink the deal on his employment (we wanted this guy so bad, I pushed back my flight to make this lunch happen). On the way out of town, I push another target (over my cell) into finally inking his deal as well. Both guys are huge talents leaving the government after many years in, so nabbing both in the same day felt great.

Fly home to Indy and then immediately get on a conference call with Enterra's board and Steve. That goes to about 8pm.

Then Tombstone, "Pirates of the Caribbean 2" with the kids in the home theater, and I collapse.

Today is a race involving hair cuts for all, a birthday celebration in Terre Haute, and racing back here for early Mass tomorrow (we've got duties). Then I crank the next column early so I can start on the Fast Company piece I gotta finish the first draft of by mid-week.

Somewhere, in the distance, a family vacation in Hawaii looms, but I have few details. Must be on a need-to-know basis. I'm assuming Jenn and my spouse have worked everything out in advance...