Running the Balkans backwards
Monday, December 11, 2006 at 5:15AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: For Iraq's Sunnis, Conflict Closes In: Mixed Neighborhoods Unravel as Shiite Militiamen Expand Violence, By Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, December 11, 2006; Page A01


This is a sign that the Balkans-backward scenario unfolds (dictator toppled, then sectarian strife leading to effective splits). Experts keep saying this is unacceptably bloody, but this is the default pathway earned by the Sunnis and Baathists--the same narrowing choice forced upon the Serbs.

And once Sunniland becomes the playground for the jihadists,then the Big Bang would be restarted, with "moderate" Sunni dictatorships on the chopping block.

How many map lines get redrawn then?

Problem is, Bush can't decide to fix Sunni and accept Shiia revival regionally. He wants to have his cake and barf it too.

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