POST: Ahmadinejad May Be Heading for His First Major Political Defeat, by Amir Taheri, Arab News

TM has been tracking this election with a lot of concern, saying it could portend much about Iran's future. He was right, but his pessimism seems--as both of us are glad to note now--unfounded (knock on wood!). Ahmadinejad is like Iran's Gingrich: very exciting trajectory but unlikely to last long. TM, originator (for me at least) of the phrase soft-kill, is now feeling more optimistic. Let that be a lesson for him and others in the same way the USSR's rapid collapse was for this (still) recovering Soviet scholar. There are many ways to skin the cat--or the Gap, for that matter. I think we're not anticipating success effectively enough with Iran. We may be under the delusion that our hard stance is holding sway, but it's really the Iranian people themselves delivering the change (no pretense on direct electoral power, but read between the lines and note how the mullahs do note the social signals from below), thus they remain the essential target of the soft-kill strategy (which works already far more than we realize, so cut off from Iran are we!). Thanks to TM for sending this in.