Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: Army, Marine Corps To Ask for More Troops, By Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, December 13, 2006; Page A01

Marines and Army are going to hit Gates up hard on more troops both ASAP and permanent. This will be a fish-or-cut-bait moment for Gates, because programs of record (that expensive stuff we buy) will be threatened--thus my argument that Gates's take on China is crucial.

If Gates can go easy on China (following reports that he will go the way of mentor Scowcroft versus what one might imagine are his spook tendencies) then all shifts are possible. If not, then you'll hear the "blip" argument on Iraq (Iraq is just a blip, strategically speaking--as in, something you recover from later but do not permanently adjust to, thus the odd bit where China hawks align themselves with defeatist-pullout arguments), then the ground-pounders continue to be screwed.