Nice to see DNI come in from the Cold War

ARTICLE: DNI's Strategic Plan Outlines New Missions, By Walter Pincus, Washington Post, September 16, 2009

About time, say I. The old spy-focus was so Cold War.

A north-south divide on dictators and democracy in Africa

BRIEFING: "8| Niger: No Limits," by Alex Altman et. al, Time, 14 August 2009.

Almost all of the no- or extended-term limit regimes are found in the north (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Eritrea, Chad, Uganda, Sudan, Niger, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia). Only Angola, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Swaziland in the south.

Seems a strong correlation with Islamic penetration, at first glance.

Counter-arguments?

Serious optimism about the future of the global economy

INTERVIEW: "Why the Statistics Point Toward Progress: Hans Rosling, a Swedish physician and thinker, argues that the recession is just a tiny setback," BusinessWeek, 24 & 31 August 2009.

THE CASE FOR OPTIMISM: "A Boost From Professional: The rise of a class of highly trained workers in the developing world bodes well for growth,"
by Tom Glocer, BusinessWeek, 24 & 31 August 2009.

THE CASE FOR OPTIMISM: "The Curious Paradox of 'Optimism Bias': Being highly positive can lead to disaster for individuals--but benefit society as a whole," by Dan Ariely, BusinessWeek, 24 & 31 August 2009.

Tons of factoids: life expectancy in China from mid-Mao (1960) to now increases 128% (from 32 to 73). God bless Deng for correcting Mao's many egregious sins.

Life expectancy in the U.S. over same time frame (basically, my life) goes from 65 to 80. Income goes from about $15k per capita to about $43k. No complaints from me.

But it shows how, across the decades of our success in growing and spreading our international liberal trade order, we not only grew the world's pie even as population doubled (tripling from 1940), we enjoyed huge improvements in our own standard of living.

Point: the genius of our world order is that we empower and enrich individuals in a non-zero sum manner. We did not get poorer by elevating all those people. We got a lot richer.

Now we face the emergence of an unprecedented global middle class.

And yet so many assume that means we must get poorer as a result.

More good news: all those lawyers and accountants coming online in emerging markets means a big rise in GDP is coming. Why? All those rules that will empower and enrich the economy and its citizens. This is why Islamic finance is taking off globally.

China is cranking 30k patents a year, keeping 150k lawyers busy. It is now third after Japan and the US. It will be #1 by 2012.

Naturally, to some, China getting smart means we must all get poorer, but history says otherwise.

Good example of US continuing to export rules: Sarbanes-Oxley has been copied in a dozen other countries. I know a lot of companies hate the rules (we at Enterra like rules in general, because that's how we make our money, but even we find it unduly complex), but it's an accountant full-employment act, and it's spreading around the planet. Copycats include Australia, France, India, Japan, Mexico and South Africa--good company.

Rules provide certainty and certainty allows for experimentation (counter-intuitive to some, but there it is) and experimentation allows for absurd optimism, which is very good for society as a whole even as it creates winners and losers from among that pile of entrepreneurs.

Enterra's been working with a lot of alternative energy entrepreneurs recently and they are a crazy, cock-eyed lot, but God bless them for their energy and innovation and sheer chutzpah. Great things will follow.

Lula's integration scheme

THE AMERICAS: "Brazil's Foreign Policy: Lula and his squabbling friends; A bold Brazilian attempt to integrate South America has run into difficulty," The Economist< 15 August 2009.

The union in question (UNASUL, Portuguese for Union of South American Nations) is not going well, with Colombia and Venezuela and Ecuador feuding. Chavez and his cronies in Bolivia and Ecuador are the alternative union. While Lula's package is all about peace and development, Chavez's is all about the "winds of war," which he constantly cites (the dictator always needs ever-threatening external enemies).

Internally, Lula catches flack from fellow politicians who see him pursuing ideology over national interests, but to me, he's just providing a much-needed counterweight to Chavez's shenanigans, and for that we should be grateful. Some see only South-South thinking by Lula, but again, what better to counter Chavez's nonsense?

But Lula's critics have a valid point: better to integrate on the basis of rules than ideology. UNASUL's first project is a security council that seems aimed at the U.S. That is a toy for Chavez and little else.

Syria ready to flip?

FRONT PAGE: "Syria Cracks Open Its Weak Economy," by Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, 1 September 2009.

I greatly approve of the rollback approach on Iranian influence. We can't stop the nukes (and delaying will only work so well, since any strikes will push Iran to redouble its efforts), but we can curtail the regional influence. More and more, the overall package starts to look like Cold War-style containment + détente: show a strong resistance to their mischief, but deal responsibly and realistically on the nukes and then go after them with the soft kill of connectivity.

We know how to do this and this is a minuscule effort compared to the Sovs, who were X-fold-Iran on every scale, including state sponsorship of terror. Any yet, the Sovs never gave any nonstate actors the bomb, despite their confident ideology. Now, of course, we look back on them and see only rational actors. We did no such thing at the time, and the same people who argue the Iranians are nuts and can't be trusted said much the same back then.

This is a good Obama move. There's no waiting on Netanyahu and the settlements or some dream of bombing Iran to the point where it'll magically feel that having nukes wouldn't be a good thing. Get ready for the next phase, I say.

Good news from Syria: the consumer mindset of the middle class is already exploding, say local observers. One Syrian financier back in town after 26 years abroad getting educated and working for U.S. firms, says, "The train's already left the station."

The soft-kill works because everybody wants a better life, and the rejectionist fundamentalists are always a small portion of the population.

The cancer generation leaves the stage

CURRENTS: "Bleak Cancer Reports Mask Major Advances: Overall Mortality Rates Miss Longer Survival Periods, Gains Among Younger People; Misleading Comparison With Heart Disease," by Carl Bialik, Wall Street Journal, 2 September 2009.

We seem to be winning battles on heart disease but not on cancer, according to the big reports.

But the counter is that these aggregate numbers hide real progress. The cancer researchers say the cancer death curve would have been a lot bigger without the effort, and that we're now coming to a decrease as we move past the smoking generations.

Believe it or not, 1925 (as a birth year) is a big tipping point. If you're born before then you may have smoked too much by the time the surgeon general reports got clear and unambiguous about the dangers around the time of my birth (1962). Born after and you probably quit early enough, or never did it long term (me), or never did it at all.

The biggest declines in cancer come among the younger cohorts: my generation (1955-1964) have seen their cancers decline 35% compared with 1946-1954.

God, even hearing that comparison makes me feel so WWII, but that was the shadow I grew up in, and it was a long one.

The other thing that hides progress: we're living a lot longer and cancer rates go up with old age. But adjusting for that, progress is real and substantial.

No, cancer is so vast and varied, that it's unlikely we ever eradicate fully. But the progress will continue because the money will continue to flow in that direction: demand + money + technology determine success.

Sounds just like oil, does it not?

It's not the production than matters, but the demand that determines

WORLD NEWS: "Bolivia Plants Coca, and Cocaine Follows: U.S. Says Drug Trade Is Booming as Morales's Plan to Encourage Legal Products From Leaves Backfires," by Antonio Regalado, Wall Street Journal, 18 August 2009.

Morales, a former coca farmer, promises to plow the crop into non-narcotic products, and so encourages production. It's up 20%, but cocaine production, thanks to shops set up there by Mexican and Colombian traffickers, is up 65%.

Best description from Eduardo Gamarra, a Florida State U prof: "Bolivia has become the point of least resistance to the drug trade."

That's all it takes, and that's why production-wars do not work: there is always somebody will to take advantage, so production simply shifts and morphs, along with routes.

You work the demand side or you're kidding yourself.

The third member to join China's future Asian Union

ASIA: "Taiwan and China: "Reunification by trade? A plethora of free-trade deals is driving Taiwan closer to China," The Economist, 8 August 2009.

As went Hong Kong and Macau, so now Taiwan seems to be choosing.

This is both sides playing long ball.

More use for Second Life

TECHNOLOGY: "A Second Chance for Second Life: Northrop, IBM Use Virtual World as Setting for Training, Employee Meetings," by Scott Morrison, Wall Street Journal< 19 August 2009.

Big global companies need virtual gathering spaces (trade shows, employee meetings, corporate training and other events).

It's an old rule of mine: any System Perturbation increases the desire to use virtual meeting technologies. Sometimes it's safety, sometimes it's money.

Good choice by Obama on missile defense

ARTICLE: Obama to Scrap Bush-Era European Missile Shield Plan, By Michael D. Shear, Ann Scott Tyson and Debbi Wilgoren, Washington Post, September 17, 2009

Suitably handled by Obama, with the right timing.

We have VERY important friends much closer in than Eastern Europe. If we cannot stop Iran from getting nukes, then we need to demonstrate--close-in--that we are willing and able to provide defense options and retaliation capabilities.

This is how we do it.

Some Chinese getting uppity

POST: Gay Chinese Stand up to Police Sweep of Hangout, By Sophie Beach, China Digital Times, September 14, 2009

As Craig said, probably not the Chinese Stonewall, but an interesting data point that signals a different social tone--i.e., "uppity" people simply saying they don't feel like the government gets to hassle them on certain things. Respect for the individual's privacy tends to come at the price of healthy disrespect for public authority--as in, it's the individual's turn to declare, "You have no right to . . .."

Expect more and more of this. And yes, it will be an uncomfortable journey for both sides.

(Thanks: Craig Nordin)

Only in America: everybody gets their religious holidays

U.S. NEWS: "Muslims Press for School Closings on Religious Days: New York City's Mayor Bloomberg Weighs Request as He Seeks Backing of Ethnic Groups in Campaign for Re-Election," Wall Street Journal, 15 September 2009.

Okay, not everybody.

But we're strictly a Christian nation until WWII, and then we decide we're a Judeo-Christian nation. And increasingly, as part of this long war, we start describing ourselves as a Judeo-Christian-Muslim nation--all children of Abraham.

Now, not everywhere in America lets kids off for major Jewish holidays, but in NYC, they do, in addition to all the familiar (for me) Christian ones. So the argument goes, good enough for the Jews, good enough also for the Muslims.

And here you see the extra-cool dynamic that's so American: a Jewish man running for re-election, reaching out to ethnic groups (meaning in NYC, damn near anybody besides himself).

Is this a great country or what?

Kraft wants Cadbury so it can get its know-how on BOP selling

MARKETPLACE: "Kraft Covets Cadbury's Know-How in India," by Sonya Misquitta and Cecilie Rohwedder, Wall Street Journal, 10 September 2009.

Kraft can see its future: selling to the Bottom Of the Pyramid in places like India, where there are 500 million unbranded teenage consumers!:

Cadbury's hold on consumers in India and other emerging markets was a factor in Kraft's $16.73 billion takeover offer the for the U.K. candy maker.

Cadbury is THE confectionary marketer of note in India, Mexico, Egypt and Thailand.

Cadbury estimates that more than half of India's people have never tasted chocolate.

Get on yer Willy Wonka!

Smart-as-hell move by Kraft. Been pushing this advice to major multinationals for several years now.

Nice piece on Martin Wolf

ARTICLE: "Call of the Wolf: The Jeremiah who has the financial world's ear," by David Cowles, The New Republic, 23 September 2009.

Neat piece, even as I find the "Jeremiah" label highly misleading. Wolf is no fear monger and he's no pessimist. He's just a really solid analyst who gets globalization's major dynamics. As such, he's suitably unsettled by the current, lengthy, structurally challenging (and structure-changing) crisis.

I had the opportunity to brief Wolfe (along with about 250 others) at the World Economic Forum regional meet in Australia in 2007 and then follow up with dinner and other conversations over the next couple of days, and he's a total treat interpersonally. He loves mixing it up with intellectuals and takes you on with a lot of unhidden glee. I deeply enjoyed the time together and getting to know him some, and came away thinking, "This guy is exactly like he reads in his books and columns." It was like you already knew him.

Anyway, nice profile that's worth reading. I do consider Wolf the best writer on globalization and have for a long time.

The deepest portion of the Gap, the Eastern Congo, still burns

AFRICA: "War's Long, Lethal Shadow: Millions have been killed in eastern Congo from fighting or fleeing in the unforgivable jungle," by Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 10-16 August 2009.

AFRICA: "Women as Spoils of War: In Congo, a rape epidemic worsens as troops inflict sexual violence on villagers," by Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post National Weekly Edition< 10-16 August 2009.

An update on an old story: about 5 million dead in the greater Congolese conflict (eastern half + Burundi + Rwanda) going back a decade, the largest cumulative death toll since WWII. Most are killed not by bullets but by disease they contract once put on the run in the unforgiving jungle. But have no doubt, those warring know exactly what they're doing.

The conflict surges now as half a million are put into flight thanks to a Congolese offensive against Rwandan rebels. The Congolese are backed by the UN, so understand this: when you intervene, no matter who you are, locals die as a result. Hopefully less die, but there is no such thing as the "clean" or "good" intervention that only has positive impact. It's all about reducing the negative impact over time.

Installments: what businessmen called micro-loans a hundred years ago

TECHNOLOGY: "Nokia to Offer Phone Installments in India," by R. Jai Krishna, Wall Street Journal, 20 August 2009.

Radical stuff: how to sell an expensive bit of technology to someone on the frontier? Way back when, Singer sewing machine company would give American settlers the gear up front, giving them time to pay back the tiny loan in installments. No Nobel Peace Prize for Singer. It was just trying to make a buck.

Now Nokia does the same with cell phones in India.

Radical new financial innovation no one could have foreseen, signaling once again these are new times totally different from the past!

Pining for the days when China was our foe

ARTICLE: The End of Sea Power, By Captain R. B. Watts, Proceedings, September 2009 Vol. 135/9/1,279

Consummate line: "China seems to be the perfect fit for the rationale of continuing in the mode of frozen history."

This is my problem with Kaplan--the romantic attachment to the past.

The old rule set on petitions isn't working any more for modernizing China

WORLD NEWS: "Beijing Seeks to Put an End to Petitioning: China's Proposed Rules, Changing Traditional System of Addressing Individuals' Grievances, Draws Criticism," by Loretta Chao, Wall Street Journal< 22-23 August 2009.

The whole petitioning thing is so imperial: asking the great emperor for a favor in your special case.

So China, as the 60th anniversary looms, fears an onslaught of these petitions, as if to the emperor on his umpty-squat anniversary. So new regs move to snuff out the ancient tradition. And I do mean ancient.

The commies kept the system as a safety valve in a country with a weak judicial system.

The problem? Local governments are quite corrupt in China, so people feel they have nowhere else to turn than to the national bureaus.

So the new system says local officials must have an open office day once a week and that country-level ones must do it every month. The central state will continue to monitor from above to root out abuses by locals.

Hmmm. No wonder people want to petition the emperor.

The new rule set seems no better than the old. The legal system is still lacking, and now the upward appeal is banned. Hard to see how that makes the system less brittle.

Firewalling off the Gap's worst exports: parasites

U.S. NEWS: "Developing World's Parasites, Disease Hit U.S.: Researchers Say Infections Spread by Bug Bites, Larvae Are Flourishing Along Border and in Other Pockets of Poverty," by Stephanie Simon and Betsy McKay, Wall Street Journal, 22-23 August 2009.

Where Gap meets Core, the Seam is teaming with parasites. And where do they expand inside the Core? Inside the pockets of poverty, or the Gap-like chunks that litter the landscape.

One expert says these parasites will do ten times more damage than swine flu (H1N1), but that they're on nobody's radar.

Enter Tom and Kev ... at Metallica

View from Legends "Exclusive Access" lounge.

We munch.

Two warm-ups (Gojira and Lamb of God), then Metallica at 9.

Gojira: Japanese for bad pronunciation.

Lamb of God:

Amen!

Metallica, first song.

Oldie but goodie.

Definitely taking it up a notch.