The limits of authoritarianism become apparent in Russia

ARTICLE: "Dubna's tale: Russia is trying to build a high-tech economy, but red tape is strangling it," The Economist, 2 August 2008, p. 54.

Dubna refers to a scientific town, sort of the old USSR's version of Oak Ridge TN. Like the national labs here, Dubna seeks to diversify itself and become a high-tech hub that incubates new businesses. One sign? It's designated a free economic zone, meaning Russian companies born there are exempted from custom duties and pay fewer taxes.

Moscow wants Dubna to become a Silicon Valley, "or at least a Bangalore." The biggest IT firm in Russia, IBS, plans to move hundreds of programmers there.

Interesting, but I hear this from IT execs here: Russian programmers are the best in the world. Not the best designers, as those are found here, but the best pure programmers. A part of that "blackboard smarts" legacy of the USSR (smart guys working with few resources have to be more theoretically sound).

The key:

But the big problem for high technology in Russia is neither money nor ideas. It is the country's all-pervasive bureaucracy, weak legal system and culture of corruption.

Thus Russia's high-tech exports amount to just 0.6% of its total exports--astonishing low given the talent pool (which is aging, BTW).

Putin can only go so far with the energy equation. He can recreate the same trajectory other energy-rich nations have forged, but it tops out much more quickly than most leaders anticipate and soon enough, you're looking to diversify.

Sure there's some bad...

Indian Navy awaits government nod to escort ships to Somalia, Thaindian News, August 28th, 2008

If true, a nice sign of India's Navy growing up and acting like da man it should be.

Wonderful thing about globalization: every bad superseded by dozens of good.

(Thanks:Rob Johnson)

Identity is even more key than economics

ARTICLE: Muslims Positive About Globalization, Trade, World Public Opinion.org, August 27, 2008

Remember,this struggle is about identity--not economics.

Who do you trust?

PRESS RELEASE: Zogby Poll: McCain Seen as Better Military Commander-in-Chief; Obama Preferred as Manager & Problem Solver, September 23, 2008

Very reflective of my [upcoming] piece on the election for Good magazine.

Stay away, you diseased infidel!

ARTICLE: "Praying for health: Religious diversity may be caused by disease," The Economist, 2 August 2008, p. 83.

Corey Fincher from the U. of New Mexico, along with colleague Randy Thornhill, have calculated the number of religions per country and found a strong correlation between more religions in a country and that country having more diseases.

Tried to find the article to see the country data, but gave up after a while. Some countries listed: Old Core Canada with only 15 and Norway just 13. New Core Brazil with 159 and Gap Cote D'Ivoire with 76. Range described as 3 to 643 with average of 31.

Diseases average 200 per country with range of 178 to 248.

Theory is your basic keep-out-the-strangers thesis (reduce exposure to contagions). Countries with more religions see their people travel less and shorter distances.

Hypothesis is that more diseases causes more fracturing of religions, which in turn would suggest that if you reduce diseases, you might increase non-denominationalism (the merging of religious sects).

Probably more association than sheer causality, but interesting.

To me, the key thing to remember, though, is that having lotsa religions doesn't necessarily equate to "diversity" in the sense that we usually use the term--meaning tolerance. My guess is that, the higher your number, the more localized religions you have, in addition to the globalized ones. Conversely, the lower your number, the more likely it is you have only globalized religions. So a lower number would suggest more connectivity leading to non-denominationalism, which is typically a sign of more competitiveness among the religions (easier to switch), because the identification isn't so tied to the land.

If you want to piss off young men in a traditional society ...

THE WORLD: "In India, New Opportunities for Women Draw Anger and Abuse From Men," by Emily Wax, Washington Post, 25 August 2008, p. A11.

Listening to stories of professional women in India and the crap they put up with reminds me of some of the worst scenes of sexism in "Mad Men."

Naturally, upward social mobility, especially for women, undermines the country's traditional "join-family system, in which couples are expected to move in with the husband's parents," where the wife typically came under the control of the mother-in-law. In response, social anger at such rapid change/challenge gets expressed in more rapes, dowry killings, etc.

America records the highest levels of reported rape, but "reported" is the key word there. The vast majority of assaults in India go unreported.

Quote from head of Bangladesh "women's council":

In many ways, the South Asia woman is out of the oven and into the frying pan. They bring home money, they share in power in the society. But they are also doing something very powerful that may enrage men: toppling the old family structure.

Globalization is a job threat to us, but it's a social revolution to most countries around the world.

SECDEF right (as usual)

SPEECH: To Oxford Analytica (United Kingdom), As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, September 19, 2008

I couldn't agree more. As usual, wisdom from Gates.

More financial pain for Russia

ARTICLE: "Russia's Stocks Slide 1%, Even With a Trading Halt," by Gregory L. White, Wall Street Journal, 17 September 2008, p. C2.

Prominent economist who advises the Kremlin:

Russia has been practically cut off from external financing and we're much more dependent on them than it seems.

Russia not only needs foreign capital for its energy sector. Lotsa Russian companies are in heavy debt, as "Russian companies and banks borrowed heavily in the West in recent years," with short terms.

$30B comes due 12/31.

Good Shepherd Methodist church sign in NVA

"Get full faith and credit here."

Sign of the times, which--of course--call my entire vision into question, because it needed a linear, upward boom with no system perturbations, no altered resource flows, and no new rules.

Just kidding: the churn couldn't provide Steve and I--and American grand strategy--more freedom of action.

And freedom is good.

The sad truth about China's tainted products

WORLD NEWS: "Tainted Baby Formula Blamed in Chinese Kidney Cases," by Loretta Chao, Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2008, p. A10.

ARTICLE: Chinese to tighten dairy testing, BBC, 17 September 2008

Point I made in an old column and reiterated in Great Powers: When there are safety short-cuts being taken, the exporting population typically suffers more than those who import, because that laxness reflects a general rule-set laxness throughout the producer's system.

Our system will catch the tainted products and will respond, but China's far weaker regulatory system lets the tainted baby formula penetrate deeply into local consumers, to the point where Chinese babies suffering adolescent kidney stones (something I know much about).

Point being: the more we crack down on this stuff from afar, the more we help the Chinese people in addition to our consumers. So pursue that sort of rule-set exportation very vigorously, because it's God's work.

Slap down, again

ARTICLE: Russia's recognition of Georgian areas raises hopes of its own separatists, By Ellen Barry, International Herald Tribune, September 10, 2008

Yet another venue for teaching Moscow about the limits of its approach to Georgia.

(Thanks: jjennings)

A real market clash within OPEC

WORLD NEWS: "Oil-Production Move Is a Tug of War: Venezuela, Iran Seek Cuts to Prop Prices; Gulf Would Hold Off," by Neil King, Jr., and Spencer Swartz, Wall Street Journal, 8 September 2008, p. A8.

It's the usual struggle, and not one that ever goes away. The Saudis and GCC are more mindful of not killing their golden goose—Western and now Eastern advanced economies' performance, while those who prefer to consume their seed corn immediately (the populists in Venezuela and Iran) want their money up front.

The natural market forces are still in effect: too-high prices force a slowdown of usage and overall economic activity. The question now is the near-term landing point. The Saudis want mid-to-upper 80s. That's been my sense all along: the new ceiling will be not that much under $100 per barrel, given the rise in global demand. But there was little market rationale for almost $150, so the speculation has simmered down some.

Still, no chance of ever going back to the past of truly low prices, and better that we don't. We simply need to continue moving on past oil, and high prices are a good driver.

Tom around the web

The most-linked item this week is Tom's forward to the new book, The John Boyd Roundtable: Debating Science, Strategy, and War (Paperback). This book is like a who's who of Tom's blogfriends, so here they are, including their posts on the subject:
+ Edited by Mark Safranski, zenpundit
+ historyguy99, HG's World
+ Shane Deichman, Wizards of Oz
+ Lexington Green, Chicago Boyz (no post, yet)
+ Also linked by Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner
Other contributors include Dr. Chet Richards, Frank Hoffman, Adam Elkus and Dr. Frans Osinga.

+ Blackwater Facts (seems to be anonymous pro-Blackwater weblog) linked Stability ops will follow all miilitary interventions in future.
+ Another Blasted Weblog linked How much for the bridge?
+ ubiwar.com linked Turn Taliban and Al Qaida against each other.
+ Hidden Unities linked The logic still holds on terrorism and Don't let the door hit you on your way out.
+ Fierce Joy linked High gas prices are--for lack of better words--good
+ Cheat Seeking Missiles mentioned PNM.
+ Sasha Van Katwyk called Tom 'brilliant' on globalization.
+ THE LAND OF THE FREE quoted PNM.
+ Be Know Do Now reprinted an old Jack Kelly review of PNM
+ Though I definitely don't want to get involved in the sniping over who accurately represents Russia, La Russophobe Exposed has a cogent summary of Tom's work.

+ zenpundit linked Peters on Putin: nationalist and pragmatic, mystical and cold, and plays by own rules.
+ HG's WORLD linked zenpundit as well as America's hard-learned lessons from Iraq.

+ Remember Hugh Hewitt's interviews with Tom on PNM? He's calling the series The Necessary Bookshelf.
+ Luke Ford linked it (warning: lousy with ads).
+ So did Jay Keating's 2008 Weblog.

+ Making Sense of Jihad linked Turn Taliban and Al Qaida against each other.
+ China Law Blog linked Smart argument from Will on McCain.
+ Eric's Learning Curve linked Interesting difference in Veep choices and A clarification on my posts about Palin.
+ ShrinkWrapped linked Rules need to catch up.
+ Cheat Seeking Missiles also linked America's hard-earned lessons from Iraq.
+ Ball Deep International Blog linked Esquire PNM Wordle.

The aborted call for a new security club for Asia and Europe--from Moscow

INTERNATIONAL: "A bowl of thin alphabet soup: The Kremlin wants a new security club for Europe and Asia. Can it work? And should it worry America, which is relearning to love its allies?" The Economist, 9 August 2008, p. 55.

Fascinating to read in retrospect.

Given all the tumult in the world, says the article, "it is easy to see why officials in Moscow, Beijing and elsewhere think the security of the Eurasian land mass could be in better hands."

Old alliances, like NATO and OSCE, are viewed as outdated by their roots (anti-Soviet).

High time, so it would seem, for something better.

That, roughly, is the thinking in Moscow, where for the first time in years Russia seems to be offering new ideas rather than old grumbles. Fuller details are promised in September. For now, the plan as outlined by President Dmitry Medvedev, and promoted by Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, is to have a big international conference in Moscow next year, attended by all NATO and EU countries, Russia and its ex-Soviet allies, as well as China and (probably) India, to set up a new security organization to deal with issues such as terrorism and illegal migration. And who could object to that?

So far, the Western response has been muted. Some countries in Europe like the idea of a security structure that would rely less on American hegemony and more on international law. Others are privately sceptical, but think it would be rude to dismiss the plan before hearing it in full.

Makes you wonder what happens if Georgia doesn't start that war, doesn't it?

Where the emergency military funds end, Development-in-a-Box™ begins

ARTICLE: "Shoes, Sheep and Pools: Using money as a weapon, the Army spent $2.8 billion to rebuild Iraq," by Dana Hedgpeth and Sarah Cohen, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 18-24 August 2008, p. 6.

Description of Commander's Emergency Response Program--SysAdmin on the fly.

Steve and I are scheduling to sit down with some people in the Department of the Army's policy side to discuss what we're doing with DiB in Kurdish Iraq. They want to know what comes after the CERP money dries up.

By the article's description, the lessons learned with CERP are similar to ones we've learned: you want something to work, connect it to enough local stakeholders.

Two other notes: the money spent gets mostly spent as the surge/COIN combo starts to work across 2007; and we spent $500k on one glass factory that never opened.

Both data points fit our experience too: security is key, and this ain't about opening dead factories but attracting FDI that wants its own factories.

'The Mullah regime is swirling slowly down the drain'

OP-ED: AHMADINEJAD'S NEW ENEMY: WOMEN, By Amir Taheri, New York Post, September 6, 2008

Agree with Lexington Green here: this is a sign of a regime in its death throes. You add that to the world's worst brain drain, the birth dearth, Iranian women as the hot new European prostitute, etc., and you're seeing all the signs of a defeated regime (i.e., they're giving up their women and children like a society that has lost a great conflict). Any government efforts to directly target these losses, like getting tougher with women, fits this overall pattern.

Desert island pick

OP-ED: What the presidential choice could mean, By Martin Wolf, Financial Times, September 2 2008

Flat-out brilliant bit by Wolf, with whom I had the pleasure of spending some time last summer on that Australian resort island.

Stuck on a desert island and able to follow only one writer on globalization in all its complexity (to include security), I would pick him in an instant.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

Fukuyama on Russia

OP-ED: Russia and a new democratic realism, By Francis Fukuyama, Financial Times, September 2 2008

Reads like a foreword Fukuyama could have written for Great Powers.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

How 'bout them Boys!

McCarthy called an excessively conservative game, daring the Cowboys to beat us with their surfeit of talent (not a good idea). Instead of being aggressive, our coach seemed determined not to traumatize our new QB, which is weird considering how he threw caution to the wind last year when he had to use Aaron as an emergency sub.

The Boys got three nice bounces (luck of the draw), but were almost mistake free. We were roughly the same, but there you run into the talent and poise disparity. I was disappointed McCarthy didn't play it more aggressively, but hard to argue with the guy's overall record, so I try not to carp too much.

Great night to watch a game though.

Got back today and did a last collection of inserts regarding the current financial crisis on Wall Street. Doesn't really change my arguments or logic, but you have to acknowledge the events if your production sked can accommodate, so I do.

You never know how much things will die down or become OBE by the time the book comes out, so you have to be careful in such responses. As Mark says, this is not a book merely "of the moment," even as it describes a strategy that begins with this moment, so you contextualize without over-hyping.

But clearly a System Perturbation triggering new rules. Then again, that happens every 7-10 years on Wall Street like clockwork. Just the nature of that beast.

Most interesting to me: globalization is itself a giant credit default swapping mechanism, so naturally that mechanism spread like wild fire. Don't expect the tool to go away, even as the rules are dramatically tightened.

Mallaby: better idea than Congress

OP-ED: A Bad Bank Rescue, By Sebastian Mallaby, Washington Post, September 21, 2008; Page B07

Seems like a smart argument from Mallaby on how to handle the banking crisis in a manner better than Congress currently contemplates.

(Thanks: jarrod myrick)