Power-of-supply reasoning

OP-ED: "The Power of Oil Consumers," by Henry A. Kissinger and Martin Feldstein, Washington Post, 18 September 2008, p. A21.

Steve and I pitching this logic recently in DC to some country's ambassador to U.S. (discussing the feasibility of Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢ in this guy's homeland): the power of demand is often unrecognized, whether you talk oil or SWFs' growing demand for good FDI targets (the REAL power in the system right now, dwarfing others).

Here, HAK and Feldstein make a good case for an anti-OPEC. China and India have already discussed (yet another reason to shelve backward talk on a league of democracies). I mean, you want to know why Southwest airlines continues to do well? Hint: they play the futures market well. Securitize your resources and boost the global economy's sense of your long-term demand consistency by reducing boom-and-bust fears.

Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢ is all about creating such confident expectations.

(Thanks: Doug Freeman)

A different Russia this time around

AN ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT: "Russia: Beyond the Headlines (This pull-out is produced and published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta)," Washington Post, 27 August 2008, 8 pages.

Interesting to spot.

Series of stories about Georgia-Russian conflict that obviously are more friendly to the Russian perspective, with additional bits on Solzhenitsyn's death, Sochi 2014 Games, travelogue on Lake Baikal, and "A Fresh Approach to Seafood."

Propaganda, of course, when other countries do this, but "strategic communications" when we do the same.

Pretty slick. Not exactly 1968.

Old Core focus: Japan

ARTICLE: The Future of Japan’s Immigration Policy: a battle diary, By Sakanaka Hidenori, The Asia-Pacific Journal

Michael Griffin writes:

The best, most detailed description of the demographic challenges of an Old Core (and some New Core) country I've ever seen. Best part: he describes in detail the challenges and advantages in both opening a country up to immigration and closing it off.

Theocratic politics

ARTICLE: Iranian cleric blasts Ahmadinejad, Jerusalem Post, Aug 27, 2008

Countering Khamenei's implied endorsement of Ahmadinejad recently, this Grand Ayatollah votes no.

Interesting: the Supreme Leader commends the president primarily for foreign policy, while this cleric blasts primarily over domestic performance.

(Thanks: Seth Benge)

Beautiful night

Leinie Lodge, 3rd deck, Lambeau. The Nick Barnett fan club gathers in their 56 jerseys.

Video: Panorama of atrium before game

Esquire PNM Wordle

PurpleSlog ran the PNM Esquire article through Wordle. Good idea. I did my own:

Column 120

America's hard-earned lessons from Iraq

As the Bush administration winds down and Americans feel real accomplishment on Iraq after years of tough slogging, here's a dozen lessons learned for our nation.

1) War is easy, but peace is hard.

America's Leviathan force handles any conventional threat out there, so our enemies refuse to fight straight up. Instead, they sit out the war, waiting to bleed us -- asymmetrically -- in the peace. If we can't master postwar environments, we'll achieve no lasting victories in this long war against radical extremism.

2) We once understood nation building, but we've had to learn it all over again.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Broder on closer for Obama

OP-ED: "Down Days for McCain," by David S. Broder, Washington Post, 18 September 2008, p. A21.

Economy crushes lipstick-on-pigs debate (oh so compelling) and exposes long McCain record on de-regulation.

Problem: we head, I argue, into period or re-regulation, progressive reform (so very TR), and new rules.

Globalization feels more out of control, and Obama speaks better to that dynamic.

Smart argument from Will on McCain

OP-ED: "McCain's Closing Argument," by George F. Will, Washington Post, 18 September 2008, p. A21.

Palin's bubble inevitably bursts, and econ news makes Russia-v-Georgia way old news come 4 Nov.

Best closing offer? What I mentioned a bit back and argued in 06: divided government.

Naturally, I agree wholeheartedly. All this "take back Washington" crap is same old, same old. But divided gov is a solid tangible.

Different ways to measure poverty

ARTICLE: World poverty 'more widespread', By Steve Schifferes, BBC, 27 August 2008

I still think Collier's notion of the "bottom billion" holds, despite this revision, because his argument was more comprehensive than just poverty (e.g., we have impoverished here in America), meaning he argued that a cluster of issues (poor governance, conflict trap, landlocked and resource-deprived) tended to yield the deep poverty and disconnectedness that I like to cite.

The percentages of global population cited, however, are a bit high. Global population now is over 6.8 billion, so 1.4B would still be only 20%, a fairly amazing decline from roughly 50% going back to the early 1980s. So it's not just those living in poverty that were rescued, it's also the new people who never entered into such poverty (that have been added to the planet).

Still, such revisions are useful and important reminders of the work yet to be done in spreading globalization. I've tended to cite the Core-Gap divide and say 2/3rds are connected and 1/3rd isn't. Collier says "bottom billion" and suggests a truly disconnected population in the range of 15%. This calculation suggests something in the 20-25% range.

So clearly there are different ways to measure (Do you live in a connected society/economy? Are you subject to traps beyond poverty? How much per day do you subsist on?).

Second of Esquire 75th anniversary trio

I had proposed a composite character to represent China (and India), but Esquire came back (in part due to my suggestions over the years) with Deng, whom I was very happy (recalling an old column) to write up.

Peters on Putin: nationalist and pragmatic, mystical and cold, and plays by own rules

OP-ED: "Why Putin should scare us," by Ralph Peters, USA Today, 17 September 2008, p. 11A.

Good piece, if a bit schizo in its analysis. What I find funny is that you can say all the same things about Bush: clear nationalist, sees America as exceptional and full of global destiny (hence able to create and execute stunning new rules on the fly), pragmatic but also highly religious (Russians who are religious are inevitably, in an Orientalist bias, referred to as "mystics"--and Peters admits here that he's imbibed his Dosteyevsky, probably in a college lit class).

I don't really fault Peters' analysis, including his blowing off of Russia's military displays (like heading down to Caracas) as "militarily absurd"--which they are to all but the most naive and therefore excitable Western "experts."

I tend to underappreciate Peters' gushy over-estimation of Putin's "brilliance" (he just acts boldly in ways that excite this former intell officer), and note his lack of any mention regarding the economic price Moscow has so far paid over Georgia (mil analysts tend to downplay financial repercussions in general).

It's just the conclusion that I find clearly overwrought: Putin is possibly problem #1 for the next prez.

In sum, a very traditional analysis of a guy who exploits tradition nicely at home but also indicates he "gets" the current world fairly accurately and takes advantage only where we let him through our choices. No clear analysis of how our strategic interests are actually harmed, but no matter. A quick comparison (favorable) to Osama, but at least he skipped the usual Hitler one. No sense of Russia's poor long-term economic trajectory.

But in the end, sensible advice to Europe to "draw clear lines while avoiding drawn guns."

Sounds pretty straightforward and easy to me.

One percent reality

ARTICLE: FDA Bans Imports of 28 Indian-Made Drugs, By David Brown, Washington Post, September 17, 2008; Page A03

This is actually how the Core works, 99 percent of the time: lawyers and regulators fighting over standards, one country exporting its rules to another by denying access to its markets for that country's "tainted" goods, and so on.

We become so fascinated with the one percent that is the application of military power (not even directed at each other, but third parties) and pretend that's the bulk of reality.

Ah, but we live in such dangerous times ... war is the only answer.

Quick, somebody get the stern-faced security expert on camera to explain that it's really all about security!

Rules need to catch up

ARTICLE: Crisis Prompts Calls for Federal Rescue Entity, By Lori Montgomery, Washington Post, September 16, 2008; Page A06

Barney Frank and others considering the need for some sort of permanent panic-regulator in the U.S. financial system.

I think something of this sort is inevitable, along with the appearance of such entities in advanced Core economies ultimately triggering some international version (either and competitive to the IMF/World Bank or forcing their evolution in this direction).

Clear trend: each system perturbing financial panic going back to late 80s seems to require longer recovery period, meaning we're operating a much larger and more expansive and penetrating international financial system than the one the relatively small West had going previously, but we're still running this behemoth on rules built for the old reality.

Tom around the web

+ International Observations reprinted the Woodward article that mentioned Tom's Fallon piece.
+ So did CDR Salamander.

+ Albert linked Don’t let the door hit you on your way out.
+ bootslack added BFA to his reading list.
+ If We Ran It likes Tom's articles in Esquire.
+ The Politics of Scrabble linked Still deeply but closely divided.
+ Nimble Books linked Holy M--, M-- of G--! The first galley is being overnighted!
+ et alli. linked Impressions of Dubai.
+ Fierce Joy says Tom's strategy for shrinking the Gap is better than Friedman's Green Revolution.
+ Arab Writers Group Syndicate quoted 'The Country to Watch: Egypt'.
+ good memes reviewed PNM.
+ The Podium notes that Tom's on his blogroll.

+ Fear and Loathing in Georgetown linked Congress should approve Indian nuke deal.
+ So did Cubegeek.

+ Leonidas linked the TED video.
+ So did Adrian Ciubotaru.
+ And Man and God and Law.
+ Philitics embedded it.

First of Esquire 75th anniversary trio online

My portrait in miniature of Meghan O'Sullivan, whose choice for the list (influential people of the unfolding century) struck me as weak at first, but I grew to appreciate her a lot more in studying her role in the surge (even more so, ex post facto, reading Woodward's War Within).

Expect her to surface in a McCain administration.

My 14th piece for Esquire (in terms of written order), and my shortest.

More evidence of Core financial punishment for Putin's Georgia play

The evidence piles up--nicely.

$7B fled Russia on 8 August alone.

Fairly rapid response, yes?

Globalization is bigger than us

OP-ED: Paulson's Moment Of Truth, By Sebastian Mallaby, Washington Post, September 16, 2008; Page A21

Great piece by Mallaby (whom I've admired and cited) re: the Lehman non-bailout.

The right lessons (or new rules) delivered at the right time can make our evolution from sole trusted financial backer of globalization's advance to one of several far less tumultuous.

This journey is both necessary and good. Globalization has grown too successful to be limited to just our financial say-so. Our progeny must continue to evolve beyond our control--for its own potential to be realized and our own financial discipline to be found..

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

Mugabe escapes again! Thanks to South Africa's half-assed efforts at preventive SysAdmin

WORLD NEWS: "Zimbabwe Leaders Strike Deal, Mbeki Says: Mugabe, Opposition Would Share Power, But Details Unclear," by Chip Cummins and Margaret Coker, Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2008, p. A10.

This was Mugabe's goal all along, thwarting the will of the people just like Kenya's leader had earlier (indeed, his trickery provided the blueprint).

Same on Mbeki for this one. He accomplishes nothing, extends the suffering of Zimbabweans, and simply puts off the final reckoning--and South Africa's associated bill.

More efficiency logic emerging thanks to high oil prices

ARTICLE: "Downtowns Across the U.S. See Streetcars in Their Future," by Bob Driehaus, New York Times, 14 August 2008, p. A17.

More insanity from higher gas prices!

When will it end?????