Georgia 'opportunity' cost: $8B

POST: Is Putin getting outflanked on the right?, Passport Foreign Policy Blog, 09/03/2008

Money quote:

I believe that one of the reasons the fighting stopped was not because there weren't people in the defense ministry who thought it should go on for a bit longer, but because in the first two working days of the war, there was a total of some $8 billion net capital outflow from Russia.

Again, the truth emerges that there is some over-reach here on Putin's part. The minute the oligarchs feel that Putin does more harm than good to their economic connectivity, then he starts being interpreted more as a function than "the man."

"Founders" get tossed by angry boards of directors all the time, so remember, a business masquerading as government isn't ambivalent about the bottom line.

(Thanks: Se√°n J. Kreyling)

Yin and yang, baby

POST: Behold the Bear: 10 Reasons Americans Should Care about Russia, By Yuri Mamchur, Russia Blog, AUGUST 28, 2008

Every downer allows somebody else to score the upper, if you're paying attention and avoiding the soda-straw view.

Maybe a bit of overkill on my part regarding Russia redirect by Pentagon

Flew to DC last night, then spent hour with Tsinghua department chair who led translation team on PNM and is just finishing on BFA (getting close to marketing to publishers there, but delayed to post-Olympic timeframe). My prof said the translation almost complete and team working to smooth out language to avoid any negative pushback from publishers, so proactively anticipating concerns to avoid censorship fight we had last time on PNM.

Also a long talk on current events, naturally.

Then back to my hotel in Arlington to work the brief, folding in new real-time analysis of Russia WRT Georgia. I probably overkill on the message here, because ICAF/NDU (Industrial College of the Armed Forces at National Defense University) is actually far more bought into the logic of shifting to the SysAdmin function than any service academy/college. They run an "Operation Gap" student exercise every spring, based on PNM, so it not an environment that goes all wobbly over just Georgia, tending to the longer, smoother, more economically realistic view.

Anyway, I continue to tweak the map slide and add in two word slides (showing my rush) on how R-v-G impacts the Leviathan-SysAdmin evolution/debate in DoD and how we need to contextualize Russia's behavior within its overall rise. I worded them a bit too heavily (too many words, too strident), and delivered them awkwardly--in my opinion. Just didn't have that bang-bang tempo that I like, but then again, that always takes weeks of speaking to hone.

Got to bed after midnight and up early for 0715 pick-up by ICAF faculty member.

Do the load-up and AV check at ICAF's Eisenhower Hall, then some time with faculty in reception room, then boom on stage, quick intro and into it.

Started slow. Bad combo of little sleep, new slides, and long time since last talk (USAID at Reagan) back in mid-August (long break for me). My mind just never clicked into that rhythm I like--sometime swimming along and sometimes searching for a word or phrase. Just never got into that jazzy zone I live for.

Went about 75 and then did almost 20 Q&A. Then into reception for follow-on holding-court session with maybe 20 students. That went on an hour, with me signing some PNMs. I got better there, finally wrmimg up to full bit-rate delivery.

Then driven back to hotel, pack up, meet Steve, and look at more office space (Enterra outgrows current space and we need additional offices for expanded ventures).

Busy day that's about to stretch ad infinitum.

The Russian strategic rationale emerges

ARTICLE: "Russia Adopts Blustery Tone Set by Envoy," by Clifford J. Levy, New York Times, 28 August 2008, p. A1.

Russia's finger-wagging envoy to NATO:

"There are two dates that have changed the world in recent years: Sept. 11, 2001, and Aug. 8, 2008," Mr. Rogozin said in an interview, explaining that the West has not fully grasped how the Georgia conflict has heightened Russians' fears about being surrounded by NATO. "They are basically identical in terms of significance."

"Sept. 11 motivated the United States to behave really differently in the world," he said. "That is to say, Americans realized that even in their homes, they could not feel safe. They had to protect their interests, outside the boundaries of the U.S. For Russia, it is the same thing."

I guess there is no time limit on claiming one's own 9/11-like writ to propose new rules--at least for oneself.

Clever stuff, though, and not totally disingenuous.

Security is one flow, demographics another, then there's energy, and finally there's FDI. All are in play here: NATO extension, Russian fears of demo decline, the use of energy as a great power-enabler, and the impact--slow but sure--regarding investments.

The interplay is what matters, as do the rationales offered.

Opportunity in Africa

ARTICLE: In Africa, a New Middle-Income Consumerism, By Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, September 1, 2008; Page A01

The rise of consumerism in Africa is a story of how globalization's rising connectivity makes opportunity happen where it hasn't taken root before.

Instead of telling me what we must prevent in this world, I'm telling you what needs to be preserved.

Again, the opposite of war isn't peace. It's creation. So we keep our eye on the ball.

(Thanks: Keir Lauritzen)

Tom around the web

+Planning, Startups, Stories quoted the TED talk, then linked it.
+ italan embedded it.

+ KIKO'S HOUSE linked The Core comes with competing rule sets.
+ So did Tabula Rasca.

+ Blogs.com mentioned No harm done.
+ g m g D e s i g n . c o m linked Russia's competing America-style.
+ Indistinct Union linked Galrahn "outexplicits" me, kicking my strategic ass.
+ Coming Anarchy linked Hit 'em where they is!.

+ DM Hallowell linked Stupidity doesn't get any better than this and Russia could be a strategic partner.

+ The 19th Hole linked Answering the inevitable question on Russia.
+ And linked Want to revive the Cold and abandon the Long?

+ Sun Bin linked Immature democracies are dangerous and Putin picks his moment on Georgia.

+ HG's WORLD linked Interesting difference in Veep choices and Still deeply but closely divided.
+Mackinlay'sInteresting difference in Veep choices.
+ So did New Yorker in DC.
+ zenpundit.com also linked Still deeply but closely divided.
+ So did Re-Moralization.

+ The Podium linked Develop Iraq to cut deals with world.

Kagan is much smarter than this

OP-ED: Power Play, By ROBERT KAGAN, Wall Street Journal, August 30, 2008; Page W1

I read the piece and found it disappointing: too inside-baseball, as if the entire argument exists solely within the field of international relations. Worse, Kagan's straw-manned his opposition to an absurd degree, stating his archetype as basically, "Man will always war, for it is in his nature"-- not exactly a hard notion to defend but also so baseline as to be meaningless.

Note also how Kagan leaves out current history and economics, so the only explanation left is: Russians are simply like this. Again, that's not particularly helpful.

Kagan is much smarter than this. Great Powers was in many ways inspired by Dangerous Nation, but his last book and his writing since the campaign began seem to be a thinly-veiled promotion of certain neocon concepts--to wit, the resurrection of pre-9/11 ideas of "taking them on."

In that regard, Kagan just seems bored with the Long War and ready to re-embrace the old neocon agenda of working the big pieces aggressively, and to me, that's just unimaginative in the face of everything that's going on with globalization's continued advance.

There's simply a bigger agenda out there than fighting China and India and waiting passively for a fascist wave to subsume globalization. To me, that's just too defeatist and fatalistic--and a bad reading of current events.

(Thanks: Florian Widder)

Friends, the idle brain is the Devil's playground

ARTICLE: Iraq and China Sign $3 Billion Oil Contract, By Amit R. Paley, Washington Post, August 29, 2008; Page A08

In the brief, for years now, when I've done the A-to-Z slide on processing political bankruptcy inside the Gap, I've said we should have had 50k Russians in the follow-on SysAdmin force, 50k Indians, and 50k Chinese.

For the Indians and Chinese, the rationale was obvious, but needed stating: in the end, it will be their oil more than ours. Not a geopolitical statement, just an economic reality.

WRT the Russians ... well, better to invite than to let them crash. Idle hands ...

(Thanks: jarrod myrick)

Things begin to settle out

ARTICLE: UZBEKISTAN: PUTIN VISIT HOPES TO ARREST RUSSIA’S DIPLOMATIC SLIDE IN CENTRAL ASIA, EURASIA INSIGHT, 8/29/08

You realize this can all be accomplished without the pundits' hysterics and the irresponsible offerings of weapons systems that we cannot control use of.

(Thanks: Craig Nordin)

The logic still holds on terrorism

ARTICLE: "Gates Sees Terrorism Remaining Enemy No. 1: New Defense Strategy Shifts Focus From Conventional Warfare," by Josh White, Washington Post, 31 July 2008, p. A1.

THE CONFLICT IN GEORGIA: "Attack on Georgia Gives Boost to Big U.S. Weapons Programs," by August Cole, Wall Street Journal, 16-17 August 2008, p. A6.

Gates really stepping out there to issue his own National Defense Strategy so late in an administration (somewhat odd). This is the secretary seeking as much lock-in on the evolution unwittingly launched by Rumsfeld (but purposely allowed by him over time) and very wittingly run to ground by Gates.

Gates believes in the "Long War," as do I. He is not much for trading real lives in the here-and-now for fancy hardware for the there-and-imagined wars of the future.

Naturally, that view is opposed by those who promote such big-ticket items. Retired Air Force general Michael Dunn, now president and CEO of the Air Force Association, counters that Gates' criticism of "Next-War-it is" is logically opposed by those who see his push to go long and deep in the Long War (i.e., into the postwar or SysAdmin territory) as "This-War-itis" (actually, a good comeback).

The Big War crowd is ecstatic over Russia and Georgia—especially the missile defense crowd, because—CANYOUBELIEVEIT!—tactical missiles were used!

Obama is more susceptible to being impressed with such arguments, one supposes, than McCain, except McCain is so hell-bent on his League of Democracies (that will be fun to watch in terms of its inglorious death—if attempted; I expect quite a summit, quite an official joint declaration, and a whole lot of nothing to follow) that you gotta believe it will be more of Bush-Rummy's "all my children" approach to defense spending—as in, everybody's happy.

Gates' position is harmed by Russia in the short term, but you know he's right. Any proxy wars we fight we Russia inside the Gap will still focus on the asymmetrical, the COIN, and the postwar rebuilds and stability ops. We will not be fighting Russia straight up conventionally, because that doesn't work between great powers loaded up with lotsa nukes.

And limited great power war is a chimera best left to academic treatises.

Putin has some 'splaining to do

ARTICLE: Putin accuses U.S. of orchestrating Georgian war, By Matthew Chance, CNN, August 28, 2008

Per State's "two czars" thesis: Putin has some explaining--and blaming--to do now.

Looking less noble and infinitely less impressive by the minute--except to our Big War crowd that still thank God for such manna.

(Thanks: JFRiley)