The logic still holds on terrorism

ARTICLE: "Gates Sees Terrorism Remaining Enemy No. 1: New Defense Strategy Shifts Focus From Conventional Warfare," by Josh White, Washington Post, 31 July 2008, p. A1.

THE CONFLICT IN GEORGIA: "Attack on Georgia Gives Boost to Big U.S. Weapons Programs," by August Cole, Wall Street Journal, 16-17 August 2008, p. A6.

Gates really stepping out there to issue his own National Defense Strategy so late in an administration (somewhat odd). This is the secretary seeking as much lock-in on the evolution unwittingly launched by Rumsfeld (but purposely allowed by him over time) and very wittingly run to ground by Gates.

Gates believes in the "Long War," as do I. He is not much for trading real lives in the here-and-now for fancy hardware for the there-and-imagined wars of the future.

Naturally, that view is opposed by those who promote such big-ticket items. Retired Air Force general Michael Dunn, now president and CEO of the Air Force Association, counters that Gates' criticism of "Next-War-it is" is logically opposed by those who see his push to go long and deep in the Long War (i.e., into the postwar or SysAdmin territory) as "This-War-itis" (actually, a good comeback).

The Big War crowd is ecstatic over Russia and Georgia—especially the missile defense crowd, because—CANYOUBELIEVEIT!—tactical missiles were used!

Obama is more susceptible to being impressed with such arguments, one supposes, than McCain, except McCain is so hell-bent on his League of Democracies (that will be fun to watch in terms of its inglorious death—if attempted; I expect quite a summit, quite an official joint declaration, and a whole lot of nothing to follow) that you gotta believe it will be more of Bush-Rummy's "all my children" approach to defense spending—as in, everybody's happy.

Gates' position is harmed by Russia in the short term, but you know he's right. Any proxy wars we fight we Russia inside the Gap will still focus on the asymmetrical, the COIN, and the postwar rebuilds and stability ops. We will not be fighting Russia straight up conventionally, because that doesn't work between great powers loaded up with lotsa nukes.

And limited great power war is a chimera best left to academic treatises.

Comments

[Robert Langland]

I am kinda hoping that who ever gets elected will keep him.

[Bill C.]

Saw an article at Christian Science Monitor for 2 September 2008 -- by Gian P. Gentile -- entitled: "Is the U.S. Army Ready for Conventional War?" Some possibly interesting quotes:

"In the summer of 2006 in southern Lebanon, the Israeli army suffered a significant battlefield defeat at the hands of Hezbollah, who fought with conventional tactics centered on small infantry squads using machine guns, mortars, and antitank missiles."

"Israeli scholar Avi Kober and US Army historian Matt Matthews have shown that the result was at least partly due to Israel's hyperfocus on counterinsurgency."

[David Sutton]

As an Australian, with a different political appointment system, what is the likelihood or the possibility that Obama would/could retain Gates?

Can appointees cross over administrations?

[Anonymous]

David: they can cross over, but it's very uncommon.

Obama could retain him and may try (i'd say it's likely), but i doubt he would stay.

[Seth]

Currently I am at an Army school at Fort Knox KY, it started two weeks ago. The first thing that the leadership said was “I don’t know if you are keeping track of the news but the Cold war just came back in a big way.” Then there was talk of us losing our core competencies and not being able to fight “conventional warfare” (their words not mine) and the 2006 conflict with Israel and Hezbollah proves that “conventional warfare” isn’t gone. In all the classes future threats now include not only China (give me a break) and Russia. WTF. We just started getting it right on COIN and now there are people trying to take us back to square one. Junior officers and senior NCOs often don’t get a chance to read PNM, so I sometimes feel like the lone voice in the wilderness.

[Tom Barnett]

Partly due to a hyperfocus. That plus Georgia sounds like we must end the GWOT now and ramp up for WWIII.

Let's not base our strategy on our actual ops, but rather on those of others.

Brilliant stuff. Hard to argue with.

[Louis Heberlein]

Words count. I thing 'Long War' costs too much in unintended negative vibes domestically and in critical areas abroad. Although it is not as much of a hot button as 'Crusade.'

We all do it. I went to an interfaith/international church session designed to educate the congregation on other folks. That session ended singing Onward Christian Soldiers. The minister gave a Whoops when I noted it to her.

We are engaged in a long term endeavor to help Gap nations, or tribes, transform or evolve toward core characteristics in ways that can improve them while reducing the transformation pain and risks. What should we call that while still motivating ourselves?

I don't know how to coin good catch phrases that inspire in a proper context. What did the Chinese use when they translated Tom's work?

[John Ham]

Terrorism is unsettling, but the manner in which airport security, for example, is conducted is ham fisted and I think ineffective. I decided shortly after 9/11/2001 that I was not going to live my life running in circles and shouting that the sky was falling. It has not and it is not.

Let's take a deep breath and craft a rational policy that does not turn us into Festung Amerika.

[Mike O'Toole]

I don't think Obama, Biden, Danzing and other folks around them would be bamboozled by the Next Big War peddlers. I believe they're down with SysAdmin albeit defined by other terminology.

[Jarrod Myrick]

Seth,

If you haven't seen '12 Angry Men,' highly recommend. You will have plenty of support here.

David,

Unfortunately it sounds like Gates wants no more of life in DC.

Mike,

You're right. Mark Lippert travels everywhere with Obama, gets it.

John,

You're right. Airport security is six year-old soccer: go get ball.

Louis,

Long war is marginally better than gwot.

[Louis Heberlein]

a gwot gwot hereand a gwot gwot thereeverywhere a gwot gwotold McDonalds Ye Yy Ye Yy Yo!