Friends, the idle brain is the Devil's playground

ARTICLE: Iraq and China Sign $3 Billion Oil Contract, By Amit R. Paley, Washington Post, August 29, 2008; Page A08

In the brief, for years now, when I've done the A-to-Z slide on processing political bankruptcy inside the Gap, I've said we should have had 50k Russians in the follow-on SysAdmin force, 50k Indians, and 50k Chinese.

For the Indians and Chinese, the rationale was obvious, but needed stating: in the end, it will be their oil more than ours. Not a geopolitical statement, just an economic reality.

WRT the Russians ... well, better to invite than to let them crash. Idle hands ...

(Thanks: jarrod myrick)

Comments

[anand]

I can't agree with you more.

"WRT the Russians ... well, better to invite than to let them crash. Idle hands ..." Obviously true.

I don't understand how Cheney could have been so stupid (to not allow Chinese and Indian participation in the Afghan national army officer staff and NCO schools after 9/11, and in asking for Russian/Indian/Chinese participation in Iraqi 3 D operations and Iraqi Army officer and NCO academies.) He ran Halliburton for crying out load. President Bush received very bad advice from the people around him.

I was at a complete loss about Bush administration policies with respect to Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in early 2003.

[Louis Heberlein]

Afghanistan was a regional roach trap, but that role is changing. So there is a quiet evolution starting among the relevant core players. China is more likely to be accepted as SysAdmin player by Afghans than Russia, or India. I noticed a quick and violent response to a small Indian social assistance effort awhile back.

We definitely need to engage the Russians more openly as partners in other places, perhaps Iraq. When things get tougher socially and economically for Russian people because it did not merge more fully and openly with Core, we may see a real WMD crisis period.

[anand]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/2668595/British-soldiers-kill-200-Taliban-in-Afghan-dam-operation.html

China's system admin role in Afghanistan is boosting Afghanistan's electricity production. (HT, Bill Roggio's site)

The main copper mine in Afghanistan, Aynak, is being developed by Chinese HQed companies. Aynak alone will generate about $400 million in revenue for the Afghan government in 2009. Total Afghan government revenue in 2008 is likely to be $700 million.

However, Afghanistan also requires integration with the Indian, Iranian and Russian economies (as well as Indian and Russian help with training the ANSF--Afghan National Security Forces.)

Louis, are you referring to the Taliban/AQ linked network/Haqqani network attack on the Indian embassy. Most Afghans strongly support Indian (and NATO and other international) help in public opinion polls. The ANSF could really use NATO, Indian, Chinese, and Russian help. Indian companies can also play a large role in economic development in Afghanistan. Do not forget that they were one country until the 1700s (Moghul Empire.) There are large cultural and personal links. I think that China can play a larger role than India, but a large Indian role would significantly benefit Afghanistan.

India has the largest Pashtu population outside of Afghanistan and Pakistan. I have an Indian friend who speaks Pashtu.

[Galrahn]

Nice find, Chinese investment in Iraqi oil is major progress. They will need it much more than we will, and will ultimately be the guardians of that investment sooner rather than later.

[Michael]

"I noticed a quick and violent response to a small Indian social assistance effort awhile back."

But whose response was it? Afghanistan's or Pakistan's?

[Louis Heberlein]

Both Taliban and AQ clients are clever at carefully attacking certain foreign ventures in target countries. Those attacks remind local folks of past conflicts with the foreigners, and the Taliban/AQ see that those foreigners are knowledgeable enough of the target countries to be a real threat to Taliban/AQ efforts. The relative silence within Afghan and Pakistan leadership groups about the attack on Indian outreach project indicates the Taliban/AQ have a good fix on how the Afghan public sees Indian involvement in Afghanistan.