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Monthly Archives

Entries from April 1, 2009 - April 30, 2009

3:45AM

Don't criminalize after the fact

ARTICLE: Congress Debates Fresh Investigation Of Interrogations, By Dan Balz and Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post, April 23, 2009

Bad idea, in my mind. Obama changes the rules, and so now we don't do certain bad things that Bush-Cheney were more willing to do, in effect saying that we won't do anything to win because we don't feel like we have to and because our morals say we shouldn't.

But post-dating criminal behavior is wrong, and any attempts to do so will inevitably come back to haunt the Dems and Obama.

3:43AM

If it's part of your country, it's under your control

ARTICLE: Clinton: Pakistani Government 'Abdicating' to Extremist Forces, By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, April 23, 2009

Tough words from Clinton, but the truth should be told. The FATA are a collection of tribes attached to Pakistan's territory, but it's never really been part of any sovereign nation called Pakistan. The FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) does not come under Pakistan's constitution. Islamabad has agencies "run" the areas much like U.S. agencies once ran Native American reservations in the 19th century (now it's combined under the Bureau for Indian Affairs inside the Interior Department). Much like our current reservations, the FATA are quasi-indepedent, more associated with Pakistan than ruled by it.

You can say Pakistan can't "abdicate" that which it never ran, and you'd be even more right.

3:41AM

The Beijing Consensus isn't all that great

ARTICLE: China Uses Global Crisis to Assert Its Influence, By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, April 23, 2009

The "Beijing Consensus" bit, as I wrote in Great Powers, is hardly an economic development philosophy on par with the Washington Consensus (which never really was a development philosophy but rather an expression of how mature markets should behave in a globalized economy). China's grand model consists mostly of giving very cheap loans that are only good for trade with China--hardly a new trick. Plus, when you trade with China, you typically don't trade "up" in terms of global rule sets, meaning you'll conduct trade in a less than transparent and corruption-free manner, so, in the end, more trade with China only preps you for even more trade with China. It does not signal development per se, but rather ensnarement. If you can call taking a bribe in order to establish trade a "consensus," then it's an awfully tiny one.

2:50AM

How much disposable income exists for longer life? Ask Dr. Oz! (Just don't pull back the curtain!)

FRONT PAGE: "Online Age Quiz Is a Window for Drug Makers," by Stephanie Clifford, New York Times, 26 March 2009.

You see the come-ons for the quiz. At the far side of the sign-up is a drug company looking to make you live longer--at a cost. Dr. Oz, Oprah's fave and a fellow "best and brightest" with me in Esquire way back when, is the come-on front man.

Tricky stuff, but just the tip of the iceberg going forward.

There will be no "black" drugs in the future: Big Pharma will work mightily to keep everything legal and thus sell-able, and you will be targeted every more directly.

3:50AM

That slick-as-s--t Disney working a new market

MARKETPLACE: "Chinese Learn English the Disney Way," by James T. Areddy and Peter Sanders, Wall Street Journal, 20 April 2009.

New schools run by Disney in Shanghai to teach kids English.

Get this bit:

The company says the initiative is primarily about teaching language skills to children, not extending its brand in the world's most populous nation. But from the oversize Mickey Mouse sculpture in the foyer to diction lessons starring Lilo and Stitch, the company's flagship school here is filled with Disney references.

Hey, if Disney can do it better than the competition, I say, let the branding begin.

3:43AM

Twitter changes everything!

OPINION: "The Weekend Interview with Evan Williams and Biz Stone: The Twitter Revolution," by Michael S. Malone, Wall Street Journal, 18-19 April 2009.

To me it's just micro-blogging that connects me--to my pleasant surprise--with a lot of people from my past.

Would I pay a dime for it?

No.

3:42AM

Gamal says Egyptian reforms will continue despite downturn

WORLD NEWS: "Egypt Aims to Maintain Reforms," by Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal, 20 April 2009.

Gamal Mubarak's future as "inevitable" successor to his ailing old man depends mightily on the reform effort, so he's putting forward strong signals regarding the government's continued commitment.

Gamal is a 45-year-old former Bank of America banker.

For now, Egypt seems to be weathering the storm relatively well, but officials see that as a reason to press even harder on reforms, while the getting is good.

Hosni Mubarak is barely mentioned in this piece. Seems to me like the succession has already occurred.

3:40AM

Speaking of environmental upgrades . . .

NATIONAL: "In Aging Water Systems, Bigger Threats Are Seen: $334 Billion in Work May Be Needed," by Michael Cooper, New York Times, 19 April 2009.

Weird story about how cities in Washington state are confronting the breakdown of water delivery systems that still rely on wooden pipes (held together by metal coils).

This is a great example of aging infrastructure that needs to be replaced in such a way as to dramatically cut down on water losses in transportation and distribution.

The stimulus package devotes about $2B for this, but the EPA estimates that something on the order of $330B is needed over the next two decades.

3:38AM

China slacking off on environmental issues just shows you how economic growth matters

INTERNATIONAL: "Slump Tilts Priorities Of Industry In China: Environment Loses In Push for Growth," by Jonathan Ansfield, New York Times, 19 April 2009.

When people feel their livelihoods are threatened, the environmental stuff goes right out the window.

People only care about the environment when basic needs are met. When times get tight, it's all about finding savings and restarting economic activity--a tough combo.

The smart thing to do, of course, is to take advantage of a downturn to upgrade your model (what the U.S. tries to do), but in China, the tendency is more to go back to old habits and put off the challenging changes.

Why? It is hard for Americans to imagine just how many people are suddenly unemployed or underemployed in China due to the downturn, and how much Beijing's masters fear that scenario.

3:23AM

Scary cyber world requires command, czar

ARTICLE: A Pentagon Cyber-Command Is in the Works, By Spencer S. Hsu, Washington Post, April 22, 2009

After weeks of being subjected to scary revelations by our government about how (CANUBELIEVEIT!) we're not the only ones who spy but that other nations seems awfully intent on spying on us as well (and I'm not just talking Israelis), the shoes start to drop. The first seems to be a separate and new military command for cyber security. It's not that we didn't have one before, we had mucho. But this being America, the most networked political system on the planet, whenever fear builds up or failure appears, we want a CZAR! and pronto. Why? Czars are very American; they're part of our history; they define who we Americans are as a people. Plus, they're the perfect answer for a networked world--one guy in charge of everything! No single-point failures for us, but rather a host of czars with one president to rule them all.

You know, there should be some sort of USG czar ring that all the czars get--big and studded like a Super Bowl one.

Anyway, hard to argue against it, because clearly we need it if everybody and their comrade can easily crack into all our nets and lift information about our weapons systems (even while they're in development).

That sort of incompetency has simply got to stop.

Other shoes will drop, one assumes, after the super-secret government-wide review (which nonetheless seems to leak a story every weekend for the Monday paper; I wish they would have given one to a lowly blogger like me, because I could have really used a blockbuster--hell, who couldn't; but I didn't know where the sign-up sheet was).

2:43AM

SysAdmin baby steps

REPORT: Civil-Military Relations, Fostering Development, and Expanding Civilian Capacity, By Frederick Barton and Noam Unger, Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 21, 2009

Worth a look. Nobody smarter or more reasonable on the subject than Rick Barton at CSIS (except maybe Patrick Cronin, cited here).

Some quick gists: we need some new agency focused on this realm, and maybe it could be USAID freed from State (or part of it), the State office for reconstruction should probably go to any such new agency, and we should have a National Strategy for Global Development.

Baby steps all right, but all in the right direction.

Smart piece of work.

2:36AM

Some natural capitalism at work

U.S. NEWS: "Water Worries Shape Local Energy Decisions: As Power Companies Pull Back on Plans for Plants That Require Scarce Resource, Renewable Sources See an Opening," by Rebecca Smith, Wall Street Journal, 26 March 2009.

Interesting dynamic: Colorado utility set to construct coal-fired power plant but then abandons when it realizes the water-use requirement.

Alternative that emerges: lotsa wind power and encouraging efficiency enough to make the new plant not necessary.

Water stopping coal. Real lesson in that going forward amidst climate change, which puts precipitation at real risk through lengthy droughts.

2:34AM

Global ag prices: credit and blame globalization

AGRICULTURE: "Low milk prices dry up farmers' income: Demand slows with the global economy," by Sue Kirchhoff, USA Today, 25 March 2009.

The gist:

"Up until recently, the U.S. dairy industry was fairly isolated. It isn't anymore," says Roger Hoskin, a dairy analyst at the U.S. Agriculture Department's Economic Research Service.

"Call it globalization . . . When the export market is strong, they do well; when the export market is weak, domestic use is not enough," Hoskin says.

2:33AM

Singapore: spares the rod and spoils the theater-goer

TRAVEL: "Singapore Lightens Up: The restrictive city-state relaxes some limits on theaters in a bid to become an arts hub," by Tom Wright, Wall Street Journal, 28-29 March 2009.

Singapore allows a production of Oscar Wilde's "The Importance of Being Earnest" with an all-gay cast.

Singapore just adjusting once again. It lost electronic production to India and China and shifted to financial services. Now it wants to make itself over--somewhat--as a cultural hub for Asia.

Censors beware.

The usual holds: the more connectivity you want, the more you have to adjust your local rule-set to accommodate the wider, connecting world.

2:09PM

Links to the latest Esquire piece

1:34PM

Tom on Time.com

ARTICLE: The Chinese Navy: How Big a Threat to the U.S.?, By Bill Powell, Time, Apr. 21, 2009

Bill Powell, who writes for Time's China Blog and interviewed Tom last years mentions Tom in his recent article:

For years, as defense analyst and occasional Pentagon consultant Thomas P.M. Barnett writes in his new book Great Powers: America in the World After Bush, the promoters of what he calls Washington's "Leviathan" force have used the prospect of war with China over Taiwan or possibly North Korea as justification for the purchase of "big ticket items."

...

Even Barnett concedes that China "goes out of its way to hide what it procures and then slyly trots out its big ticket items every so often so our satellites can get a few shots of them."

Already have two reprints:
+ 4VF News
+ Chinh's news

12:51PM

Tom to speak at USNI/AFCEA "Joint Warfighting Conference" in May

Last-minute invite to fill a hole caused by previous selectee who fell out. Judging by the quality of the other speakers who will addressing the entire forum (versus serving on panels, which I did in San Diego several years back), it must have been somebody big.

As always, it's very nice to be asked.

The three-day conference is 12-14 May at Virginia Beach, VA. Usual big exhibit hall with 250 or so companies. Seven panels with the likes of Ralph Peters, Frank Hoffman, H.R. McMaster, Herb Browne, Tony Zinni, Mary Yates (State Dep at AFRICOM), Paul Van Riper, Dov Zakheim and Jay Cohen.

Keynotes from Jim Mattis (JFCOM), Martin Dempsey (TRADOC), me, Eric Olson (SOCOM), Stephen Carmel (SVP, Maersk) and DEPSECDEF Bill Lynn.

Full list found here.

Invite came today from retired MGEN Tom Wilkerson, my boss on the Naval Forces Capabilities Planning Effort that generated From the Sea ... way back when. Haven't seen him in years.

Crowd is expected to be 5,000. Keynotes will be in the exhibit hall. It's at the VB Convention Center.

4:45AM

Where Obama wants to take capitalism

WEEK IN REVIEW: "Obamanomics: Capitalism After The Fall," by Richard W. Stevenson, New York Times, 19 April 2009.

Well-written piece.

America has long had one model of consumption-oriented capitalism that was good for us and good for the world, but globalization's spread has advanced to the point where that philosophy has produced structural imbalances that are unsustainable for all involved.

Does that mean the preceding decades were all a lie? A sham? A fraud?

Hardly.

It simply means that our success in spreading our American System-cum-international liberal trade order-cum-globalization forces us into adaptation of a magnitude so significant as to constitute a new era in capitalism.

As always, the critics of capitalism will have their brief field day, as they have had throughout capitalism's oscillating-but-constantly-improving history. And those who err on the side of statism will be celebrated for their cautious wisdom during the tumult.

But real leadership in this timeframe consists of shaping the vision of that next stage of capitalism, not the sideline complaints of those who dream of capitalism's demise (long and often predicted over the decades) nor the timid visions of state bureaucrats who fantasize that--somehow--the "scientific methods" enabled by today's technology will place them in greater control of their fates than past versions did for the likes of the Soviets.

So what is Obama saying?

His goals include diminishing the consumerism that has long been the main source of growth in the United States, and encouraging more savings and investment. He would redistribute wealth toward the middle class and make the rest of the world less dependent on the American market for its prosperity. And he would seek a consensus recognizing that an activist government is an acceptable and necessary partner for a stable, market-based economy.

"We cannot rebuild this economy on the same pile of sand," he said last week.

How that equals a "war on the middle class" or a "war on the rich" or a "war on private business" or whatever the hysterics are peddling this minute, I haven't a clue.

To me, it seems like a reasonable description of the direction we'll simply need to move for the foreseeable future, because an America that isn't centered on a middle-class ideology isn't really America anymore.

Done well, we set the example for the global middle class as it emerges, exhibiting the same innovative and visionary global leadership that got the world to this place--a world no longer threatened by great power war and distressed primarily by a lack of sufficient rule sets to manage all the complexity created by globalization.

In short, we need to move onto the next, best set of problems and challenges.

Or we can pretend that real leadership consists of rerunning the mistakes of the first half of the 20th century, before we assumed leadership of this world.

3:50AM

Be afraid!

POST: 10 easy steps to writing the scariest cyberwarfare article ever, By Evgeny Morozov, Net Effect (Foreign Policy), 04/11/2009

This is hysterical and right on target--a must read!

(Thanks: Gunnar Peterson)

3:42AM

Iraq looking more normal

FRONT PAGE: "Feeling Secure Enough to Sin, Baghdad Returns to Its Old Ways," by Rod Nordland, New York Times, 19 April 2009.

The reappearance of night clubs, liquor stores, prostitutes, cock fighting and other forms of gambling ...

Not everyone's cup of tea, but good news nonetheless.