Brief Reminder: Y2K Scenario Dynamics Grid (1998)

Made this after one of our initial expert workshops on Y2K in 1998.

The six-phase sequence across the top, with the four domains down the left side.

Each box presents the leading scenario dynamic per the phase-domain combo, with the red-arrow designations defining the dynamic that marks the shift to the next phase--or signposts to watch (like the appearance of "Y2K and you" literature from the government to deal with the perceived "credibility gap" in the initial "Mania" phase).  The red circles in the last phase suggest the "new X" legacies that arise in the aftermath.

I used to love briefing this slide, although it took a while.

Not the greatest predictor on Y2K--once the Onset proved pretty mild, but an interesting prediction/capture on 9/11 and beyond in terms of the Onset, Unfolding, Peak & Exit phases.

Brief Reminder: Y2K onset/outcome scenarios

The X-Y axis is pretty straightforward:  we're vulnerable or not, and the event is big or broken up.  The onset scenarios are listed in the corners, using weather as an analogy:  discrete events but lotsa damage = hurricanes; discrete events and we're resilient = tornados (pockets of damage); big event and we're shut down = ice storm; and big event but only the vulnerable, low-lying areas are swamped = flood. The named outcome scenarios are fairly obvious.

We clearly landed on the upper half, arguably more on the left.