Brief Reminder: Y2K onset/outcome scenarios
Saturday, May 22, 2010 at 12:02AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett in Brief Reminder, Y2K

 

The X-Y axis is pretty straightforward:  we're vulnerable or not, and the event is big or broken up.  The onset scenarios are listed in the corners, using weather as an analogy:  discrete events but lotsa damage = hurricanes; discrete events and we're resilient = tornados (pockets of damage); big event and we're shut down = ice storm; and big event but only the vulnerable, low-lying areas are swamped = flood. The named outcome scenarios are fairly obvious.

We clearly landed on the upper half, arguably more on the left.

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