Brief Reminder: Y2K Scenario Dynamics Grid (1998)
Saturday, July 24, 2010 at 12:02AM 
Made this after one of our initial expert workshops on Y2K in 1998.
The six-phase sequence across the top, with the four domains down the left side.
Each box presents the leading scenario dynamic per the phase-domain combo, with the red-arrow designations defining the dynamic that marks the shift to the next phase--or signposts to watch (like the appearance of "Y2K and you" literature from the government to deal with the perceived "credibility gap" in the initial "Mania" phase). The red circles in the last phase suggest the "new X" legacies that arise in the aftermath.
I used to love briefing this slide, although it took a while.
Not the greatest predictor on Y2K--once the Onset proved pretty mild, but an interesting prediction/capture on 9/11 and beyond in terms of the Onset, Unfolding, Peak & Exit phases.
Reader Comments (2)
Am I the only one willing to admit that this post, and the graphic, make no sense to me? (I only have a Masters) I'd buy you this <http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_vdqi> if you would promise to crack it.
GB
Sorry, but I didn't include the ten pages or so of text that explains the entire slide. I just didn't have time this week and hope to post the entire Y2K final report sometime this month. My mistake. I should have recognized that the scenario bit names were too cryptic in many instances without the explanatory text. It's all just too familiar to me, so I forget what a clean pair of eyes looking at it ten years later must be trying to figure out.