Careful with that brick, Mr. Hunter

Duncan Hunter, who impresses me very little as a candidate, displayed a fascinating lack of historical awareness during Wednesday night's presidential debate.

Given a scenario of Iran getting the bomb, he said--in effect--that America can't let a country that speaks openly of "genocide" (vis-a-vis Israel, per Ahmadinejad's threats) have and potentially use a nuclear weapon.

Of course, that's quite a warning coming from a national politician representing the one government in the world ever to commit genocide and use nuclear weapons.

Uncomfortable for us to remember either set of events, but you know what? Others in this world do.

Ahmadinejad's threats and those of others in the Iranian government vis-a-vis Israel with regard to nukes are certainly worth addressing, but we need to do so with a little less reckless bravado of our own and more cognizance of the signals we're sending.

Schelling, in Australia, reminded everyone that we went through a rather long (as in, roughly two decades) of spookily foolish thinking on nukes before settling into the wisdom of MAD. Clearly, we can't allow Iran's learning curve to drag on quite so long (Schelling's real concern), and ideally, if they're committed to making the technology and capability happen (which I believe they are), we'd prefer to see them to settle into the same sort of comfort zone that Japan enjoys (could, in short order, field nukes, but chooses not to as a general rule). Given the tension between us, that's unlikely to be enough for Tehran.

And with guys like Hunter speaking on our behalf, it's almost a done deal.

Correction on Sarkozy's statements vis-a-vis Iran last week: he did not, as the WSJ approvingly put it in a subsequent editorial, declare this whole thing ends with Iran either having the bomb or getting bombed. Instead, he pushed diplomacy as the answer to avoid going down such a binary path. Saw that in Time.

Professionalizing the SysAdmin

ARTICLE: "'Throwing Money at the Problems': Inexperienced U.S. overseers and corrupt Iraqi contractors hobble reconstruction projects," by Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 3-9 September 2007, p. 18.

We came out of Vietnam realizing we need to professionalize the Leviathan, so we kill the draft.

Now, the SysAdmin's body requirements (which naturally drive my desire to access the budgets and bodies of India and China's militaries) gets some thinking again about a draft.

That's a terrible idea that could only be resurrected by somebody not old enough to have run that force (which is why I've never run into an officer of that age who ever wanted to go back to that).

But, just as clearly this time around, we need to professionally upgrade our SysAdmin force, because we're expecting too much from those too little trained.

This cannot be pushed too hard by the COIN cohort, all of whom are celebrated now even as none (save Petraeus) are likely to be rewarded professionally for their trouble (every mil generation can handle one Bill Owens or Art Cebrowski, but rarely can it accommodate more).

This is why I push so hard and so uncompromisingly: the system will constantly cajole you into declaring "victory" prematurely. The community, like any huge bureaucracy, wants to process its squeaky wheels ASAP. And frankly, you relent because you realize you've effectively argued yourself out of a job: they no longer have a position for you. Some, like Art, have positions made for them. Others, like Owens, reach serious heights, dragging an army of detractors with them (like Petraeus is trying to do, despite his current popularity among the outside world, inside the defense community he's got plenty of critics).

Many worry about Petraeus in his current job. Me? I'm more focused on where he could go next, for he's the leader most likely to run this immense shift to ground, given the right power.

Good piece on Iran's Shia faith and its celebrations

JOURNAL: "For Iran's Shiites, a Celebration of Faith and Waiting: Marking the birth of an imam who is said to return someday," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 30 August 2007, p. A4.

Well written, balanced exploration of the Shiite holiday celebrating the birth of the 12th, or "hidden imam." The Shiia await his return like Christians--some more anxiously than others--await the Messiah's return.

Ahmadinejad talks like a true believer, but as we've survived two born-agains in office (Carter, now Bush), Iran seems to be weathering Ahmadinejad.

Some critics (both external and internal) make a big deal out of Ahmadiejad's professions of such faith (I maintain he's a crafty Persian Newt Gingrich who'll say anything to advance his agenda), Slackman says that in Qum, the Shiia quasi-Vatican (along with Najaf in Iraq, where Sistani presides), "no one here seems to buy that view [that Ahmadinejad so awaits the prophet he'll trigger war to achieve Armageddeon], at least publicly.

As one Tehran social psychologist (yes, they have those in Iran) says:

"[Iranians] feel at home with a prophet coming. They are comfortable waiting, waiting for salvation, waiting to be saved, waiting for good days."

Me too, despite all the threats about being "left behind."

Before you get too excited about Chinese hacking into the Pentagon ...

This happened early this year, by my count earlier than 3-4 months ago as reported in the press. Although press coverage comes just now, it wasn't much of a secret in the community. I heard about it from a dozen different sources by Memorial Day.

The administration chooses to unveil the story now as Bush meets up with Hu Jintao in order to make a point.

Fine and dandy, but think about this: so long as the Pentagon entertains the notion of China as threat and secretly plans to that end, justifying weapons systems on that basis as well, we have to expect China to actively spy on us. Hell, Israel does so routinely and quite effectively, so why expect less from China?

As for the "stunning revelation" of the hack, don't be naive enough to believe this is a one-sided game. We just don't brag about our attempts--successful or no.

And no, it's not weird for us to do so. You pay the military and intell community to do stuff like that.

But please, don't be shocked--I say shocked!-- to discover there's spying going on in this department!

Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds?
Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
[a croupier hands Renault a pile of money]
Croupier: Your winnings, sir.
Captain Renault: [sotto voce] Oh, thank you very much.
[aloud]
Captain Renault: Everybody out at once!

As for the more general problem of economic espionage, remember China's just acting its age, much like we did for decades on end during our rise.

Bad? Sure, but so are my teenagers.

I'm just arguing for perspective, so as to avoid simplistic manipulation.

Globalization does not homogenize culture

OP-ED: "Globalization and Cultural Diversity," by Michael Lynton, Wall Street Journal, 4 September 2007, p. A17.

Thomas Friedman is quite Marxian in his predictions that globalization homogenizes (in "Lexus") and "flattens" ("World is Flat") all in its path.

This op-ed is a good counter to that conventional wisdom, and it uses my favorite example of Hollywood.

Lynton is CEO of Sony Picture Entertainment. In this piece he notes a bunch of Sony deals with local studios in China, India, Spain, and Russia (notice the New Core flavor?) to--in effect--glocalize movie production.

The summing-up:

Instead of one voice, there are many. Instead of fewer choices, there are more. Instead of a uniform, Americanized world, there remains a rich and dizzying array of cultures, all of them allowing thousands of movies and television shows to bloom.

Ouch! Take that one, you left-wing deviationists!

Or is it right-wing?

Mao must be spinning in his crystal sarcophagus.

Meanwhile, the rest of us can breath more easily on globalization ...

Better details from WSJ on local-over-center reality in Iraq

ARTICLE: "U.S. Shifts Iraq Focus As Local Tactics Gain: Central Government Loses Clout to Regions," by Yochi J. Dreazen, Philip Shishkin and Greg Jaffe, Wall Street Journal, 4 September 2007, p. A1.

Ya suppose David Brooks reads the WSJ?

Just kidding.

All serious observers moving to same conclusion, and Brooks' description of the "surprise" is the most eloquent yet--as often is the case.

But I think of Bill Easterly's too: the "searchers" (like my bad boy Steve DeAngelis, crawling around Kurdistan) are outperforming the "planners" (Bremer as the poster child) Trust the locals over center, trust the private sector over public.

Biden's "soft partition" looks more real by the day, and the Washington consensus grows.

So now even Bush suggests openly that local gains mean troops reductions can start by end of year (Do we now accuse Bush of "defeatism"? Or can we be more grown-up than that?), making Sen. Warner's day, I suppose, and revealing the false--and hyperbolic--dichotomy of "cut and run" versus "let the surge work," which is best left to the fire-breathing polemicists fighting for air time.

Who comes out looking good? Petraeus and Mattis and Nagl and McMasters and Kilcullen and the new COIN look pretty good ...

This fake state is being dismembered, the proximate trigger to this Bosnia-done-backwards being our timing in Saddam's removal but the ultimate trigger being Bush-the-Senior's embrace of the Powell Doctine. When America passes on getting the job done in 1991, it sets this inevitable dynamic in motion: the Kurdish nation is born in the northern no-fly-zone and the Shiites' lasting fury is midwifed by our decision to betray their uprising.

Now, both realities come home to roost with Bush-the-Son in a huge "surprise" that no one could see coming!

And the next stage emerges: how do we reconnect Iraq's parts to one another?

If you guess politically, go to the back of the line.

We don't call it State-in-a-Box, my friends.

Times caught up

OP-ED: 'Center First Gives Way To Center Last,' By David Brooks, New York Times, September 4, 2007, Pg. 19

Put this with Friedman's "Kurdish secret" and I'd say the Times is all caught up on Iraq.

Another smart pre-emptive strike from Iran.

POST: Tehran seizes initiative for patching up Palestinian feud to steal show from Washington’s Middle East diplomacy

Sarah Kass' scenario lingers while Rice diddles. We need to move faster than Iran. Hell, we just need to move faster than the current, says this river rat.

(Thanks: CitSAR)

Just too pretty to pass up ...

on my way to the House Armed Services' Roles & Missions panel.

The Gap lacks science and scientists

ARTICLE: "Islam vs. Science: Are Muslim beliefs compatible with critical inquiry?," by Jay Tolson, U.S. News & World Report, 10 September 2007, p. 48.

Citing a report in the Aug. issue of Physics Today, the Islamic world (defined as the 57 nations of the Organization of Islamic Conference) is described as way short of scientists and science.

Some facts:

The OIC has 8.5 scientists per 1000. The world average is 40.7.

The OIC spends 0.3 percent GDP on R&D, the world 2.4.

Of the 1.8k universities in the OIC, only 312 publish journal articles and none are in the top 500 in the world.

Islam is given partial blame and there is truth in that. But I imagine you're also seeing a Gap-wide trend of academic disconnectedness.

I have no data on this. Just my suspicion that much lower-than-global-averages are found throughout the Gap.

A glimpse of the blindingly obvious

ARTICLE: "Baghdad's New Owners: Shiites now dominate the once mixed capital, and there is little chance of reversing the process," by Babak Dehghanpisheh and Larry Kaplow, Newsweek, 10 September 2007, p. 36.

Great maps at end explain it all: before the Samarra bombing, the city is evenly split, Sunni and Shia.

Now, Shia dominate across most of the capital.

Key judgment:

While the surge of U.S. troops has reduced violence in some areas, it has not prevented Shiite militias from taking over most of Baghdad's neighborhoods.

The slo-mo ethnic cleansing is undeniable. The debate is moot.

The essential questions of the age

ARTICLE: "In Turbulent Pakistan, Start-Ups Drive a Boom: Fast-Growing Economy Lures Entrepreneurs," by Peter Wonacott, Wall Street Journal, 5 Spetember 2007, p. A1.

The basics:

"Can you be modern and Muslim? How is Pakistan going to link into the global economy?" asks Ali Cheema, an economics professor at Lahore University of Management Sciences, who has researched Pakistan's entrepreneurs. "These people are posing important questions."

Indeed.

100 million of Pakistan's population of 160 million is under age 25.

Think Pakistan can't be turned into something different quickly by globalization? Think again.

Friedman gets what Enterra's had for a while: the sense of Kurdistan as template

OP-ED: "The Kurdish Secret," by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 2 September 2007, p. WK11.

The quote:

The Kurdish autonomous zone should be our model for Iraq.

The goal Steve DeAngelis and I have in mind is much larger, but we couldn't agree more.

Iraq is the new Alaska

So very Old West in motivation

ARTICLE: "A Way Out of Debt by Way of Iraq: Volunteering for Duty to Pay Off the Bills," by John Leland, New York Times, 3 September 2007, p. A8.

Go back and read your history or check out still frontierish Alaska today: the frontier is where you disappear to escape/pay off your debts.

And so it goes in the Core's frontier-integrating conflicts in the age of super-empowered globalization.

The real deal on North Korea?

ARTICLE: "U.S. And North Korea Reach Nuclear Deal," by David E. Sanger, New York Times, 3 September 2007, p. A5.

Of real interest is North Korea's pledge to dismantle and account not just the nuke program we know about, but also the second one recently purchased from Pakistan, all by the end of the year (although the DPRK spokesman was already fudging that one).

Still, if Hill makes this happen, this would constitute a real victory for Bush.

Still, no intrusive inspection regime is so far defined, plus Kim gets to keep--as far as I can tell (please correct me)--his six or more nukes.

Critics will say Kim is having his cake (nukes) and eating it too (reduced sanctions for giving up his "kitchen"), and they'll be right.

But Schelling's point remains: get a nuke and rule out U.S. invasion.

Still, if this moves Kim towards China's strong desire to transform him into a mini-me Deng, then perhaps we have our answer and this goes down as Bush's big foreign policy achievement.

But interesting, is it not, that after the Iraq war was fought ostensibly to deny Saddam nukes and possible strikes loom with Iran over nukes, that Bush's 2 big foreign policy achievements may end up being admitting that India and North Korea have and can continue to own nuke weapons?

Bit schizo, dontcha think?

But I see the reality of it: nukes are last century's problem. Better to move on.

Indonesian finances opening up further

MEDIA & MARKETING: "Islamic Banks Broaden Aim: Marketing Stresses Competition to Lure Non-Muslim Clients," by Tom Wright and Yayu Yuniar, Wall Street Journal, 5 September 2007, p. B3.

ARTICLE: "Debuting in Indonesia: IPOs, Finally: Coal Firms Lead Pickup Amid Burning Demand For Fuel in China, India," by Tom Wright Wall Street Journal, 5 September 2007, p. C1.

Indonesian bank HSBC Holdings markets its Islamic financial products without emphasizing the underlying function. Turns out few Muslims really looking for that.

Meanwhile, interesting to see how the rise of India and China pushes more IPOs in Indonesia. Naturally, energy leads the way.

Slo-mo ethnic cleansing

ARTICLE: 'No Relief From Fear: Despite U.S. Buildup, Families Still Fleeing Baghdad Homes As Violence, Rivalries Loom Over Paralyzed Iraqi Government,' By Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, September 5, 2007; Page A01

This top story yesterday is the essence of the slo-mo ethnic cleansing that marks our Bosnia-done-backwards.

China PR, spying

ARTICLE: China Steps Up Efforts to Cleanse Reputation, By DAVID BARBOZA, New York Times, September 5, 2007

Of course, China also ratchets up its efforts to steal our economic and military secrets through network hacking.

Yin and yang. Trust the Chinese to be Chinese and remember how they compare to our thieving, sloppy ways of the late 19th century.

(Thanks: Bill Millan)

Bureaucratic Iranian disconnect

POST: Are We Prematurely Designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as Criminal-Soldiers?

Good argument. Although at first blush this makes sense in terms of targeted sanctions squeeze, the problem is that we lock in certain pathways and ratchet up the pressure in a manner inappropriate--in historical terms--for a nation state. After all, we didn't label the KGB or the Red Army/GRU as terrorist organizations and yet indeed they were (actually, both far more in scope and depth than the Revolutionary Guards).

If the designation is placed with an eye to using it as a bargaining chip later, then great. But frankly, bureaucracies rarely work with such intelligence. Instead, the original intent is soon forgotten and then it's carved in stone for all time.

Over time, that hamstrung approach makes someone like Bush, as president, lament that his hands are tied WRT Iran. So what does the bureaucracy do to remedy that? We disconnect Iran some more and increase our lack of leverage.

This is a big deal.

ARTICLE: Rafsanjani to lead key Iran body, BBC, 4 September 2007

(Thanks: Tyler Durden)