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Entries from November 1, 2004 - November 30, 2004

5:38AM

China's people-driven connectivity spreads around the Pacific

"China Sees Chances for Fun and Profit Offshore: More Air Service, Tourism and Investment Flow From Mainland to South Pacific," by James Brooke, New York Times, 25 November 2004, p. W1.


Chinese tourism is remaking the economics of island nations all over the Western Pacific, and that influence will only grow. The number of Chinese tourists is expected to increase ten-fold over the next two decades, reaching a global total of 100 million a year. Thatís the equivalent of one out of every three Americans traveling abroad every year:



ìThe Chinese will dwarf the Japanese in tourism and business,î said Dirk A. Ballendorf, an American who teaches Micronesiaís history at the University of Guam. ìI recommend that all my student study Chinese.î

Will the flag follow trade? You bet, which means Chinaís navy is becoming the new kid on the block. And it will be welcomed because that trade is welcomed. Eventually, America will need a security alliance in Asia that includes China, and it wonít be to ratify their military presence, but ours.

5:37AM

The very loose rule set on special ops inside the Gap

"U.S. Drafts Order for Special Forces: Troops Are Being Prepared for Cladestine Operations Against Terrorist Groups," by David S. Cloud and Greg Jaffe, Wall Street Journal, 24 November 2004, p. A4.


Frustrated with the Global War on Terrorism and our inability to track down and kill certain terrorist leaders hiding away in certain ungoverned territories or states, the Pentagon is rewriting the rule set on clandestine ops by Special Forces. Frankly, this is a very good thing. We want these guys to have the loosest possible rule sets, with the world as their playground. That sort of direct action belongs with the Pentagon in a GWOT, not the CIA. Weíre not hunting spies in this war, but actual combatants.


Kerry was right: this is a police action . . . inside the Core. But Bush was also right: this is a war inside the Gap.

5:37AM

The myth about the myth about moral values

"'Terrorism Worries, Not 'Moral Values,' Decided Election," by John Harwood, wall Street Journal, 24 November 2004, p. A4.


Harwood makes the best case possible for the notion that moral values mattered little in the election, and that it all came down to terrorism. His point: the Republicans get back above 50% in a national election for the first time in 16 years because weíre back to having security atop the agendaópure and simple.


I donít think you can argue with that analysis. I just also think itís incomplete. Terrorism the physical danger is rather minor in the U.S. Yes, 9/11 was horrible, but itís likely to be a very rare historical event. Whatís coming under attack every day in the Global War on Terrorism are our values. Not so much our political values (which most still admire), nor our economic values (which most still emulate). Instead, itís our moral values that attract the most hatred.


I know, I know, if we only pulled out militarily from the Middle East and gave up supporting Israel, then everything would be great in the region, except it would still be full of dysfunctional governments, backward social structures, and populations ill-prepared andóin many ways, unwillingóto succeed in a globalized world.


Now you might be wondering: if itís our ìlooseî moral values that offends so much, how come a resurgence of traditional values comes about in this war? This is classic mirror-imaging to a certain extent. We did the same in the early years of the Cold War, becoming reflexively far more conformist as a society in the face of the ìred threat.î Weíre doing something similar today.


So to say it was all about terrorism far more than moral values is awfully misleading. The war is all about values, and the American public wants someone at the top who will defend those values while demonstrating them as much as possible. The two points, then, are intimately linked.


This is what the Democrats better figure out if they hope to rule in the White House anytime soon.

5:37AM

The tipping point on air pollution grows near in Asia

"Air Pollution Is a Big Concern in Asia," by Stan Sesser, Wall Street Journal, 24 November 2004, p. B8.


Of the 20 biggest cities in Asia, only Singaporeís air is considered reasonably safe. Meanwhile, the number of ìbad airî days in other cities is skyrocketing. Last year the pollution index hit 100 or more only 53 times in Hong Kong. This year itís 79 and counting. Beijing and New Dehli suffer air considered three times worse than Hong Kongís, which mostly suffers the pollution from Guangdong province, something I remember only too well from our week there in August when I though my head was going to explode.


The locals are expected to suffer silently in the face of all that necessary development, but hereís what will push things along: foreign companies are having a harder time getting their workers to live in these cities and pollution is becoming the big reason. Frankly, I could never live in Beijing in its current state, nor would I subject my young childrenís growing lungs to it (your lungs donít stop opening up until about age 7).


Hereís what one exec said when asked why he moved away from Hong Kong with his family:



My daughter and I have been taking nasal sprays and various antihistamines for coughing and rhinitis,î an inflammation of the mucous membrane of the nose, he adds. ìWeíre constantly coughing, but when we go away itís fine. Our doctor has repeatedly told us these are pollution-induced.

Asia is reaching the tipping point on big city air pollution because their cities are their showcases as they open up to the global economy, and having your showcases be unlivable is simply bad for business, so expect business to change as a resultóand soon.

5:36AM

Smart Palestinians desperate to move beyond Arafat

"After Arafat, Opportunity? Some Palestinians Hope Moment Brings Reshaping of Governance," by Farnaz Fassihi, Wall Street Journal, 24 November 2004, p. A11.


Hereís a realistic judgment on Arafat: ìHe was the guardian of our national cause but could not understand the modern concept of governance.î So says a long-time legal reform advocate living in the West Bank, where ìPalestinian courts donít repreent or uphold the law, and are procedurally sloppy and filled with corrupt judges.î:



Others pursuing change are focusing their energies on education, health care, police and security measures, and gaining control of Palestinian finances. They accuse Mr. Arafatís tight circle of advisersófor the more part founders of the Fatah movement and exiles who moved here with himóor corruption and cronyism. These failings bear part of the blame, they say, for a shriveled economy and the fact that more than half the Palestinian residents of Gaza and the West Bank live in poverty and nearly half are without jobs.

The rest of the blame obviously goes to the negative security situation with Israel, whereóof courseóone might argue Arafatís legacy was all the worse. But the connections between the internal rot and the external insecurity are striking more and more Palestinians as real:

Those pursuing a new order are hoping to find representatives who will tackle the two main questions facing the Palestinian people: how to have peace with Israel and how to build a new country. ìI think democracy is a precondition to peace. No agreement will be respected if it doesnít come from the people; otherwise we have to oppress our population to reach a deal,î says Mustapha Barghouthi, a member of the National Board of Reform . . .

What Palestinians need is a reformist interim leader who starts both processes and then turns them over to a respected leader of the post-founders generation. As with almost all revolutionary movements, the founders tend to make bad political leadersói.e., they can lead in war but not in peace. George Washington was that rarest of leaders, and weíre the country we are today thanks in no small measure to that fact. People forget that Washington was only a so-so general, but an amazingly foresighted president.

5:35AM

Kansas: center of global freedom!

"Kansas as No. 1," editorial, Wall Street Journal, 24 November 2004, p. A12.


Gotta admit I was impressed with the Kansas-Missouri area when I visited just before Thanksgiving. As we consider where we might live next, it ranks rather high, thanks to the Southwest hub in KC, the fact that youíre roughly two hours by air to either coast (West coast trips are hard for me now living way up in New England), plus by car youíre within a day of so much of America (like Denver, Dallas, Twin Cities, Chicago, my mother-in-law in Indiana). Would be hard to leave the ocean, but not the East Coast. Frankly, my pulse drops quite a bit just driving around a far less settled place like KS or MO. Out East itís so crowded and it shows in the way people interact with one another.


So maybe weíll ìmigrate for freedom,î as the WSJ says, noting that Kansas ranked number one in their annual state freedom indexing, conducted with the Heritage Foundation. Based on a number of variables, to include tax rates, state spending, occupation licensing, environmental regulations, income redistribution, right-to-work laws, minimum wage and tort law, Kansas came out on top. Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and Massachusetts all ranked in the lowest fifth, to no surprise.


It was probably be easier maintaining my Democratic identity there as well, surrounded by all those Republicans. Hard to keep your sense of who you are politically when you live in a one-party state.


If we were to move to Kansas, wouldnít I be giving up all my military connectivity? Strange this is right now in my career, but I probably need to leave the Defense Department to maintain connectivity to the military. Where PNM takes me right now is to the other three services (Marines, Army, Air Force) far more than to the Navy, where Iím currently located. To get and maintain the professional connectivity I think my career is calling for right now, I will likely need to move into a situation where I can maintain a looser employment situation while simultaneously forging stronger links with those services I have up to now largely ignored. That will mean periodic travel all over the dial, and that speaks to a central geographic location, which a Kansas City metro region provides, along with that nifty, Southwest hub.

5:19AM

A special thanks

Dateline: Portsmouth RI, 27 November 2004

As you might remember, I was given a couple of command coins from the Air War College and the Air Command Staff College when I visited Maxwell Air Force Base down in AL at the beginning of November, only to have them stolen with my wallet on the return trip home.


Maj. Tim Bergmann down there was nice enough to buy the two coins from the local base store and mail them to me. I requested he inform me of their price that I might repay him for his kindness, but he deferred, saying "No compensation necessary, just keep up the good work expanding our horizons!"


Yet another example of why I feel proud to have spent my entire adult career in this business working directly for the military. As someone who's spent a good twenty years thinking hard about war and peace, I've come to greatly appreciate the sacrifices of our military personnel, although I will confess I have learned more simply by living in military communities all these years than by performing the analysis per se.


America is a very lucky country, but that luck is the result of millions and millions of choices made each and every day by individuals to serve the higher cause that is America.

4:16AM

Christopher Cavas' "U.S. Fleet of Mother Ships" in Defense News

Dateline: Portsmouth RI, 27 November 2004

Had ambition to blog a collection of ten articles I've collected over the holiday, but we've got something spreading through the ranks and several of us are suffering a variety of symptoms suggesting a virus of sorts, the kind that just hits you in the early evening and leaves you sort of funky through the next morning. So me and the boys are watching Jerry Lewis's "Nutty Professor" downstairs (really nice to see the widescreen version looking so sharp). Last night we watched "Master and Commander" (first time for me) and I was stunned how good it was, though I've expected the very best from Peter Weir, ever since "Gallipoli."


I know there is a point in there somewhere . . ..


Oh right, feeling kinda crappy so I'm just tossing out this article on a holiday-weekend Saturday (I'm told it's a low-traffic day, typically, so sue me for the lack of effort). This article by Chris Cavas stemmed off a series of interviews he conducted back in early November, me being one of them. I hadn't expected to make it into the article, as I had just chatted with him briefly by cell phone from my hotel in Princeton NJ the afternoon before my talk at the Woodrow Wilson School, and at the time, I didn't feel like I had offered him much worthwhile. But apparently I gave him what he needed, so here's the piece.


U.S. Fleet of Mother Ships: Will Swarms of Tiny Unmanned Vehicles Replace Large Vessels?


By CHRISTOPHER P. CAVAS


A professor at the U.S. Naval War College has some good news and bad news for young officers attending the Newport, R.I., school.


ìThe good news is, you may command several hundred ships in your career. The bad news is, there isnít anybody on them,î said Thomas Barnett, who spends a great deal of time analyzing naval trends.


The future U.S. Navy most likely will comprise fewer large ships, fewer traditional cruiser- and destroyer-sized warships and many ó perhaps thousands ó of small, unmanned vessels.


But donít be fooled by the small size or benign appearance of the unmanned craft. Plugged into worldwide communications networks, the craft can be ordered from afar to deal with a threat or summon heavy firepower from over the horizon.


So where does that leave the traditional, multirole warship?


ìI think theyíre going to have to rethink surface combatants,î Barnett said of Navy planners. ìI think submarines and aircraft carriers are going to have to be thought of as mother ships which send off swarms of unmanned things.î The result is a notion that only engineers will likely find inspiring.


ìThe Navyís going to be fundamentally a ferry,î Barnett said. Ships will just ìship things around.î


The Mother Ship


That trend already is apparent. The mission modules being designed for the new Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) all use unmanned air, surface or underwater vehicles to carry out anti-surface, anti-submarine or anti-mine warfare. Nary a ship is designed today without a flight deck to launch unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Most new surface ship designs include stern ramps for launching and recovering small craft, plus large internal spaces to handle and maintain them.


The concept of a mother ship to unmanned systems isnít new, but how far that concept can be taken is only a guess at this point.


ìThe Navy used to call them Carriers of Large Objects, or Carriers of Small Objects,î said Robert Work, who studies future naval force structure issues for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) in Washington. Work sees great mother ship potential in the SSGNs, former Trident ballistic missile submarines now being converted to carry 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles and operate special forces teams. Work believes that rather than carry cruise missiles, the subs will bear torpedo-sized, reconfigurable unmanned underwater vehicles, or UUVs.


ìYou could put, potentially, 154 of these inside a single SSGN,î he said. ìAnd assuming you could control them ó and thatís a big assumption ó you would have a mother ship with 54 of these little things zooming around, 50 charging and 50 more on their way to replaceî the first group.


The mother ship doesnít have to be a warship either.


ìMaybe what you do is have a larger container ship thatís been designed to take care of a whole big number of UAVs. Or say you have another ship thatís designed to carry a whole big number of USVs,î or unmanned surface vehicles, Work said.


Command and Control


While it is possible to field swarms of unmanned vehicles, command-and-control issues need to be worked out before that becomes a reality. ìWe still donít know how to technically control processing memory and power,î said Cmdr. Greg Glaros, who works on future forces technology at the Office of Force Transformation. ìWhen weíre talking about smaller sizes, we havenít solved those issues,î he said, ìtechnically nor operationally.î


But thereís no question the day of the independently operated, multimission-capable warship is waning. Network-centric operations that connect ships, aircraft and sensors into vast command and communications systems are the order of the day. The result is likely to be a fleet of only a few large ships, many smaller ones and a galaxy of small unmanned sensors ó all ìnodesî to gather and relay information. Such a ìdistributedî system concentrates power on fewer hulls and spreads it over a potentially vast area.


ìI think over time, whatís going to happen is thereís going to be a group of manned nodes

and thereíll be some large powerful nodes,î Work said. ìThereíll be an increasing number of smaller unmanned nodes. And then thereís going to be an even more increasing number of unmanned systems. The Navy that figures that out first is going to have a step ahead on the next stage of naval competition.î


The possibility that a small, foreign competitor could quickly develop a cheap, deployable ability to challenge the United States has planners worried.


ìThe uncertainty there is that, although we right now are very good in very large complex ships,î Work said, ìover the next 20 years ó once nano-robotics and high-speed computing machines start to be kludged together ó you could see a Navy challenge emerge a lot quicker than it could in the past.î


After a number of analysts inside and outside the Navy criticized the service for concentrating on near-term programs, several studies now are under way to look at the long-term issues of what the future threats could be and what should be built to counter them. Among the groups looking at the issue are the Center for Naval Analyses and the Office of Force Transformation. None of the studies are complete.


Workís CSBA is looking at what the Navy needs ìwith an eye towards the industrial base and keeping it vibrant,î he said.


Affordability is key to the projections. During the past two years, the Navy has allocated between $11 billion and $12 billion a year for shipbuilding, according to CSBA, and the ìNavy plan is to go up to somewhere between $16 [billion] and $20 billion. And we just quite frankly think thatís unaffordable,î Work said. ìWe have done some preliminary analysis that says we think $12 billion a year, steady-state, is what we can reasonably expect to sustain over time.î


The Opposition


Perhaps the most fundamental question in planning the future fleet is determining who the enemy could be. Some strategists foresee a possible large-scale confrontation with China or India, in which case a conventional fleet of submarines, aircraft carriers and large surface warships would be useful.


But Barnett is among those who downplay this idea. Rather than developing into adversaries, ìIndia and China [should] become more important players for us,î Barnett said, in ìinvestment, partnership. Weíre not going to be more strategically inclined to compete with them.î


Strategists who see no potential large-scale adversaries say the Navy instead will face opponents with less concentrated war-fighting power. ìMost of the navies of the world are shifting to gray coast guards,î Work said. ìThey have some capability but certainly not enough to stop a U.S. push into the littoral.î


The challenge for the Navy is to keep or develop the ability to meet a huge variety of threats or missions ó and keep it affordable. That means keeping some of the very expensive, power-projection fleet now in service, and developing newer, cheaper systems to meet the range of threats.


The Big Unknown



While the DD(X) and LCS are meant to support operations near and on land, the Navy and Marine Corps are developing the Sea Base, a concept that envisions groups of large ships stationed near a potentially hostile coastline that will serve as a preparation and launch point for special operations and major combat efforts.


Manned and unmanned vehicles would operate from Maritime Prepositioning Force (Future), or MPF(F), ships, which also will support special operations forces. The ships ó probably built with large flight decks ó would support Marines and troops ashore in a role that transcends that of existing prepositioning and assault ships. But how the ships will do that ó along with logistics issues such as how materiel will get from ship to shore and what defensive capabilities the ship should have ó remain unanswered.


ìSea Basing is the big unknown at this time,î Work said. ìI think there needs to be a lot more clarification on just what the Sea Base is designed to do.î The Sea Base concept fits squarely into planning for the next Quadrennial Defense Review, now being launched inside the Pentagon.


ìWhatís driving Sea Basing is the 10-30-30 requirementî at the heart of the new review, Work said. ìThe 10-30-30 is a stretch goalî . . . where ìyou want to be able to seize the initiative within 10 days, you want to be able to solve the objectives of the first war in 30 days, and you want to re-cock the force and go and fight another war in the next 30 days. The only way you can get forces anywhere in the world within 10 days is with a thing like sea basing.î


Doing all these things, the analysts said, is expensive, and feelings persist that the Navy will lose funding in the upcoming 2006 budget battle to support an expanding Army and ongoing operations in Iraq. That could force the Navy to choose between surging ahead with big ships like the DD(X), MPF(F), new assault ships and the next aircraft carrier, or smaller platforms like LCS and a host of unmanned concepts.


Doing it all at once, said a Washington-based naval analyst, would meet the 10-30-30 requirement, ìbut itís also going to be the unaffordable Navy.î ï


E-mail: ccavas@defensenews.com.



[BOX]

The Facts: Driving Design


Robert Work of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, sees four basic ìfleetsî driving U.S. naval design and acquisition:



ï The Dissuasion Fleet. Work views this as a ìfleet in being,î able to ìdissuade someone from mounting a global open ocean challenge against us. The best way to do that is to have a strong nuclear-powered submarine fleet. A fleet of fleet-killers,î he said. But he thinks the current U.S. fleet of more than 50 attack submarines isnít necessary, and recommends a fleet of between 33 and 44 subs. A ìvibrant shipbuilding capability,î along with ongoing efforts in technical research and development, is also necessary. ìThe dissuasion fleet is having the industry to build more subs if youíre met by a challenge,î he said. Also included is the fleet of strategic submarines armed with nuclear ballistic missiles, although that number could drop from the current 14 missile boats to 10 subs, he said, which would allow four more hulls to be converted for the SSGN cruise missile and special operations forces mission.


ï The Global War on Terror/Homeland Security Fleet. The SSGN and LCS are keys to the ìGWOTî fleet, Work said. ìPlus the Coast Guard cutter fleet, which is very big and should be a complementary investment.î New threats also could emerge to emphasize the importance of this mission. ìOne of the things that may happen over time is that protection of offshore infrastructure is going to be an important mission,î Work said. ìTwenty-five percent of our oil and gas comes from the Gulf of Mexico. If somebody was operating in there trying to destroy that infrastructure, the Coast Guard would be overwhelmed. They could not do it. So in that case, you could easily see the LCS fleet being called back because itís very ideally suited for that type of mission.î

The Coast Guard is just starting to build the first large cutter under its Deepwater modernization program. During the next decade or so, the service plans to construct eight large cutters, 25 medium cutters and about 58 smaller patrol cutters. Work would like to see the modular mission systems of the LCS concept incorporated into the Coast Guard fleet. He also envisions a homeland security role for the LCS. ìThe LCS becomes the gunboat of the GWOT,î he said. ìThey can be everywhere. We can afford enough of them [at $220 million per hull] so that we can really control chokepoints.î


ï The Contested Access Fleet. Conceptually, the LCS is at the heart of the Navyís ability to fight its way into defended areas near shore. Stealthy designs with stand-off weapons that operate unmanned systems, such as the large DD(X) destroyer, are also designed with this mission in mind. ìThe contested access fleet will be a lot of experimentation,î Work said. The new integrated power system for DD(X), for example, will make available much more power for weapons and sensors, and will allow designers to mount new systems such as railguns, which have the potential to hurl projectiles more than 200 miles. General Atomics, San Diego, is working on an electromagnetically propelled railgun using pulsed power that, the company claims, removes propellants and explosives from the weapon system, leading to greatly increased magazine capacity.


ï The Sea-based Power Projection Fleet. The current fleet, built to defeat other navies on the high seas and strike targets on land, is ìway too muchî for littoral missions against non-traditional opponents, Work said. ìIt is an extremely powerful fleet that has way too much capability compared to the other three. If there are any changes, I would believe that that is where we would cut.î While dropping the numbers of attack submarines, Work also sees a drop to 10 aircraft carriers from the current force of 12, but continuing improvements in precision weapons wouldnít necessarily mean a drop in striking power, he said.





COMMENTARY: I came away pretty impressed by the article, and even more by Bob Work, whom I've heard about but never met. I think his analysis of the four fleets is dead-on. Funny for me, but I've been talking about the "smart dust Navy" (lotsa sensors) for several years now, just sort of tossing it out there without a whole lot of understanding of what was possible, much less actually happened, but it was just something that both appealed to me and seemed a logical next evolution. When I saw my quotes up front (the usual misquote: I always say, "The bad news is, most of them will be unmanned."), I thought, "Oh no, this guy is going to make me seem like some sort of futuristic nutcase!" But to my relief, my ideas are just where I want them to be typically located: just beyond the foreseeable horizon but not so far that people aren't working in this direction. That sort of info appeals to investment firms, which is why I tend to get a lot of invitations to speak in such settings. But when I speak of the future Navy being more ferry than warship, you can see why I have a tendency to piss off more than a few people up on top in the Department of Navy.

4:12AM

Ground temperature reading in Iran

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 27 November 2004

As we contemplate the newsletter, we hope to catch and package the best of the responses we get to the blog. The following email is a good example. Where do I find this guy and his information? I don't. He finds me.


The Internet permits this sort of data-free research: I'm a pattern spotter. I've had certain patterns in my mind about Iran for years, and so I keep pushing certain ideas, waiting for the data to appear. That's really all futurism is: spotting the weather changes on the horizon and then waiting for the evidence to appear.


I wrote a blog recently about the proposed return of their old president Rafsanjani, who ruled with some moderation across most of the nineties, only to be replaced by (at the time) even stronger reformist Khatami (who, like Rafsanjani in 1997, is also looking long in the tooth in terms of reform, but his excuses [9/11; Axis of Evil speech] were at least better). The article cited a lot of conventional wisdom among the political commentariat of Iran that Rafsanjani would be a serious--even leading--candidate to replace Khatami. If true, it would be a Nixon '68-like resurrection.


I liked the article because it told me that--at least among the political elite--there was a groundswell for a return to the practicalism of the mid-1990s, or before this recent return to hard-line nonsense. So to me, the discussion itself was the interesting sign, not whether Rafsanjani is the guy. The better outcome would be, of course, an even stronger but lower (meaning on the street) groundswell for someone not so used up and perhaps with both more domestic political capital and external diplomatic standing to rise up and be the next president. I'm still looking for someone Nixon-like, meaning someone who can talk the hard-line talk (can't pass mullah muster otherwise, and rememeber: the only good reformist presidential candidate is the one who can actually win), but has the sense to go to Washington before the Pentagon comes to Tehran.


Who would such a person be? And does this groundswell exist?


One data point arrive in the email from a YoungHusband just back from Iran. If you check out his site listed below, you'll see an obvious bias (good one, but obvious), so you judge his judgment as you see fit. Clearly he wants change too, but that's no reason to doubt his analysis of Rafsanjani vis-a-vis other potential candidates.


Here's his email to me:


Mr. Barnett,


Great book, love the blog. Now onto this: /weblog/archives2/001166.html


I just returned from a month in Iran, and my feelings on the ground are that Rafsanjani doesn't have a chance if he gets vetted for the next election. He is the target of much scorn on the part of the Iranian people, and is considered a greedy opportunist that used his terms as prez to cash in. Out of every person I talked to, young and old, no one said that they would vote for Raf. In fact, one guy told me he would vote for Tony Blair in the next election and another told me George Bush! But by far the most popular candidate seemed to be Rohani, the man currently negotiating with the EU3. Another candidate that popped up was Molavi.


But of course Iran has notoriously low election turnout (somewhere around 50%) and if there is some meddling by the Council like earlier this year. . . http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3510573.stm


Just passing on some news from the street.


Younghusband

http://www.cominganarchy.com



We're at a weird point with Iran that is very similar to late Brezhnevian Russia: this is the only country in the region where the government hates us but the people basically like us. Elsewhere, it's mostly the other way around.

This is one of many reasons why I think the U.S. needs to rethink its approach to Iran, something I write about in the February issue of Esquire (a piece I'm still editing with Mark Warren). I expect more hate mail than I can possibly answer on that one! But you need to remember one thing when you finally read that one: it's not about the means but the ends in foreign policy, which is always a realistic balancing of security requirements and economic needs--and it's always (at least for us) about getting what America wants. That's the discussion we so rarely have in this country: not about what we think others want us to do or what we think history wants us to do, but about what we--deep down--know what we want from the outside world because it's right, it makes sense, and it'll keep us who we are.

9:45AM

Reviewing the Reviews (James Pinkerton @ The American Conservative)

Dateline: Portsmouth RI, 26 November 2004

The following lengthy review by James Pinkerton, former Reagan and Bush '41 White House aide and currently at the New American Foundation and Newsday as a columnist, was sent to me by a reader. It appears in the current (6 December) issue of The American Conservative. Like many critical reviews, it has less to do with PNM than with the reviewer, who apparently is very disturbed by the "neoconservatives" of the Bush '43 administration.


Here is the complete text, with commentary to follow:



Books

[The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Putnam, 385 pages]


Don't Say the (Other) N-Word


by James P. Pinkerton


IF YOU EVER find yourself wondering why Iraq has proved to be a quagmire, you might take a look at The Pentagon's New Map by Thomas P.M. Barnett.


The book's optimism is as bold as the administration's promises of Iraqi "jubilation" that we heard two years ago. Indeed, for those seeking a "new operating theory to explain how this seemingly 'chaotic' world actually works," the dust jacket assures us, "Barnett has the answers." But answers for whom? The book does not explain the world as it is; Barnett's two-variable analysisópeople are driven by economics, except when they must be kept in line by American military forceóhas already been refuted by world events. Instead, the author answers a different, sneakier, question: how does one establish neoconservativism as the dominant politico-military paradigmówithout using the word "neoconservative"? That is, how does one mainstream radical ideas, making them seem as normal and American as apple pie and PowerPoint?


Barnett's mission, seemingly, is to synthesize two strands of neoconservatism. One is the "conservative" interventionism of Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and the Bush 43-ized Republican Party. The other strand, perhaps more important in Barnett's view, is the liberal interventionism of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman and much of the Clintonized Democratic Party. To be sure, Friedman's economism, leading to utopianism, has been discredited in the eyes of many, even before Iraq. Yet other Americans remain susceptible to a Barnett vision of the post-Cold War worldónamely, a "grand strategy on par with the Cold War strategy of containment," a strategy in which the U.S. leads civilization against the dark forces of barbarism.


Barnett, a senior military analyst with the U.S. Naval War College, is touted on the dust jacket as having "given a constant stream of briefing over the past few years, and particularly since 9/11, to the highest of high-level civilian and military policy-makers." And now, the jacket continues, "he gives it to you."


Actually, this briefing will cost you $26.95. The U.S., meanwhile, has committed close to $200 billion for the war in Iraqówhich Barnett cites as "obviously" the first action item for his geostrategic planóso why start pinching pennies now? A few hours spent with this book will leave the reader with a better understanding of how marchers of folly first put their boots on. In Barnett case, it begins with a map of the world, a little jargon, a few factoidsóand a brash theory unalloyed by judgment or historical perspective.


Yet Barnett appears to have influence in the U.S. government. In addition to his post at the Naval War College, he has also worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Center for Naval Analyses; if the Pentagon had disapproved of Barnett's bold title, presumably the brass could have stopped him from using it. Instead, they funded his work and even blurbed his book.


Barnett's Big Idea is to draw lines across the planet delineating the "functioning Core" and the "non-integrating Gap." The Core consists of the rich countries of North America, Europe, Japan, and Australia, plus Russia, China, and India. The Gap includes most nations of Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southest Asia.


The great work of the 21st century, Barnett says, is for the "connected" Core countries to come to the rescue of the "disconnected" Gap regions. How to do this? One route is foreign aid, another is trade. Yet another is the militaryóyes, armed intervention. That is, the Core must prove its systemic superiority by invading the Gap. Paying no mind to St. Augustine, Barnett explains, "My definition of just wars is exceedingly simple: They must leave affected societies more connected than we found them." In other words, perpetual war for perpetual connectivity.


So the idea is globalization in all forms, by all means. Indeed, Barnett goes into full pompous-reverential mode to declare The Lexus and the Olive Tree is a "seminal volume." One might think of Barnett as Friedman with a security clearance. This Pentagon guru declares, "America's national interest in the era of globalization lies primarily in the extension of global economic connectivity." With that single thought in his head, restated endlessly across nearly 400 pages, he reduces all the complexity of the world down to one simplicity: whether or not countries are "connected." And like Friedman, he never doubts that the U.S.óthe worldwide history of failed colonialism notwithstandingócan reliably do the connecting.


In a weak moment, Barnett admits, "globalization's progressive advance will trigger more nationalism around the world, not less." Then he catches himselfóthe cure for measles of nationalism, he insists, is more globalism. "For each time we expand globalization's Functioning Core, we expand for all those living within it the freedom of choice, movement and expression." Prosperity, in other words, begets harmony.


But is affluence really the antidote to war? As Aristotle once observed, no tyrant ever conquered a city because he was cold and hungry. And the Stagyrite knew whereof he spoke: his pupil Alexander the Great suffered little deprivation in his Macedonian royal family. Yet Alexander's chosen form of "movement and expression" was to conquer the world.


But we haven't got to the real thrust of the book, which is that it's the mission of the Coreóall united, of course, as one big connected and integrated familyóto fill in the Gap, with treasure, blood, and the American way. This shiny, happy vision includes such unhappy Core-iors as France, Germany, and Russia. Indeed, Barnett even sees China as "a serious strategic partner in managing global stability." Do I hear the word "Taiwan"? Only by ignoring a dozen nuclear-edged feuds among the richer nations does Barnett get to the Friedman Stationóto the terminus of a certain historical view, to the place where history ends because everyone is sitting peaceful and pretty. That is, if they are on the right side of the global tracks.


Because on the wrong side of the tracks, Barnett warns, lies a world of despair and danger. So even as the Core forms its multinational condominium, it must venture forth to slay the monsters. Barnett explains, "If the Core seems to be living the dream of Immanuel Kant's perpetual peace, then the Gap remains trapped in Hobbes' far crueler reality." As a result, America's globocop destiny is manifest: "American soldiers will end up being the tip of the spear."


If some of this is starting to seem familiar, that's because those ideas that were not cribbed from Friedman were taken from Wolfowitz.


Thus we come to "The National Security Strategy of the United States," released by the White House in September 2002. That document, on which Wolfowitz had been working while serving in the Bush 41 administration a decade earlier, asserted that the world now has only "a single sustainable model for national success: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise."


But since not everyone recognizes the blessings of this single modelóaka the American Wayóthe U.S. should intervene as necessary to give history a shove. Operation Iraqi Freedom was the beta test for the new strategy. And although the war hasn't gone exactly as planned, President Bush continued to prove that theory often trumps reality, insistently describing Iraq as the first step on the long march to peace and freedom for the world.


Yet interestingly, the word "neoconservative" never appears in this book's index. In fact, Barnett goes to great lengths to disguise the neocon-y nature of his argument. At one point, he launches into a reverie in which he claims to be "the real Fox Mulder," referring to the '90s TV show "The X-Files." Continuing in his self-dramatization, Barnett describes a sinister conspiracy inside the U.S. government: "Now the ZOG [Zionist Occupation Government, a term used by Timothy McVeigh types] conspirators basically have control of the Pentagon, with the Jews Paul Wolfowitz and Doug Feith running the show." The ZOG running the military? What are we supposed to make of that? One suspects that the purpose here is for us to have a good laugh, thus chuckling away legitimate concerns that perhaps neocon world-historical utopians are careening America over a cliff top.


The suspicion Barnett is carrying heavy neocon baggage, however disguisedly, increases as he turns toward the Middle East; there he wipes away centuries of history and oceans of blood with his simplifying globalizing brush. "What makes suicide bombers possible?" he asks. The answer: "It's not the poverty, because most of the terrorists are middle class and educated. It's that they have no realistic expectations of a better life for themselves or their children." This economic-determinist dogma might amuse the late Mohammad Atta, the Egyptian-born ringleader of 9/11, who had made his way to affluent Germany before embracing al-Qaeda ideology. Nor would it explain the mysterious rise in suicide bombing in "liberated" Iraq, rising from, well, zero into the hundreds since the Connectivity invasion. In fact, as Robert Paper of the University of Chicago demonstrated, the single biggest factor in suicide bombing is the bombers' desire to drive out foreign occupiers. Pape goes unmentioned by Barnett.


Instead, Barnett plows ahead with his variable-less view of the world, leading him to dismiss all patriots everywhere as retrogrades: "When individuals cannot find opportunity in life, they are reduced to fighting over what's left over: the land and the cultural identity they attach to its history." Such nostalgic rootedness, he maintains, is only for losers. It's far better to "define a society by connectivity and the individual opportunities it provides." Then, Barnett cheers, "You will see the primordial attachment to the land disappear . . . as mobility trumps tradition." So when that Great SUV-Day arrives, patriotism will become obsolete. And as for Americans, we can build condos atop Bunker Hill and pave over Gettsbury.


Barnett ends by offering a world-fixing to-do list: "ten steps toward this world worth creating." And although the book was published just this year, it looks as though he might want to rework some of his presentation slides.


The first item on his list has already been tried: The Iraq War. Dutifiul apparatchik that he is, Barnett lauds "our efforts to recreate Iraq as a functioning, connected society within the global economy." We feel no surprise thereóalthough maybe his further prediction, that "the Middle East will be transformed over the next two decades" needs to be tweaked a bit.


Item two on the list: apply the Iraq solution to North Korea. Writing with the jingoistic breeziness of someone who has never seen combat and never understood how a war turns out, Barnett announces, "Kim Jong Il must be removed from power and Korea must be reunited." He add, "There is simply no good reason why Northeast Asia should put up with this nutcase any longer."


Of course, some might argue that the "good reasons" for negotiating with Pyongyang include its six to eight nuclear weapons. But if neoconservatism doesn't exist in Barnett's exoteric vocabulary, it's no surprise that realism doesn't feature in the text of his book.


Item three: Iran. Once again, Barnett sees regime change as a great idea. Echoing his neocon mentors, he wants to make "Iran the greatest reclamation project the world has ever seen."


Some might note that this list echoes George W. Bush's axis of evil. Indeed, Barnett is lavish in his praise of his commander in chief, even if it means trashing another Republican president: "I prefer comparing George W. Bush to Harry Truman rather than Ronald Reagan." Why is that? "Reagan didn't win the Cold War but had it handed to him on a silver platter." In other words, according to Barnett's revisionist history, the world situation that Ronald Reagan inherited from Jimmy Carter in 1981óSoviets occupying Afghanistan, NATO drifting toward defeatism, pro-Castro forces winning in Central Americaópresented nothing more than a silver-platter challenge.


So we thing again of that one group of nominally conservative thinkers who argue that the Gipper is overrated. Yup, it's the neocons, the Straussian silent partners in Barnett's book. They're the ones who lump Reagan in with the quarter-century of American presidents before Bush 43 in order to support the claim that America's Middle East policy has been weak and morally cloudy since the fall of the Shah of Iran.


And what else does Barnett recommend? Faster immigration, please. Europe, he avers, needs to "move beyond 'guest workers' and into American-style encouragement of immigration flows." Indeed, "The right-wing anti-immigrant politicians need to be shouted off the political stage and pronto." Moreover, after encouraging Europe to become more like the U.S. on immigration policy, Barnett next encourages the U.S. to become more like the United Nations. In his dream scenario, the U.S. would merge with Mexico and by 2050, a "United States" president would be elected directly from the former Mexico. As Steve Sailer has noted, the neocon vision is a two-step: first, America invades the world; then America invites the world.


America, meet Tom Barnett. Your government rates him as one of the best and brightest. He endorses the radical world-remaking foreign-policy agenda of the neocons, although he won't quite come out and say it. Yet, lest anyone mistake him for a mere stooge of the neocons, he endorses a few nation-remapping ideas that are even more radical than anything the neocons have proposed, at least in public. So this would-be Clausewitz, writing from the bosom of the military-industrial-PowerPoint complex, demonstrates that the neocon bubble has yet to burst. If his book is any indicator of the future, then we ain't seen nothing yet.


James J. Pinkerton is a columnist for Newsday and a fellow at the New American Foundation in Washington, D.C. He served in the White House under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.


COMMENTARY: Let me go through the text in full before some summary comments:



Instead, the author answers a different, sneakier, question: how does one establish neoconservativism as the dominant politico-military paradigmówithout using the word "neoconservative"?

This is basically the crux of the review: Pinkerton identifies me and my vision as being completely derived from the neocons. The neocons are the great big bogeyman in Pinkerton's analysis of how Bush 43 has hijacked the beloved party of Reagan, who is clearly his idol (man, does he get mad later on when I dis Ronnie about the end of the Cold War!). So, in effect, his review of my book becomes his chance to tee off on the neocons, and the fact that I don't personally "admit" to being under their sway makes my "sneaky" attempt to mainstream these dangerous ideas all the more threatening. As is pretty much always the case with Pinkerton's writing, going all the way back to his rise to prominence as the "great domestic thinker" of the first Bush administration (wow, there's an historical claim to greatness: you really have to hand it to Bush 41 as a great domestic presidentóor was that why he was a one-term president?): he is always fuming about those who are true Reaganites and those who have betrayed the party. If only I were a Republican I might give a rat's ass about that dumbass historical feud.



Barnett's mission, seemingly, is to synthesize two strands of neoconservatism. One is the "conservative" interventionism of Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and the Bush 43-ized Republican Party. The other strand, perhaps more important in Barnett's view, is the liberal interventionism of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman and much of the Clintonized Democratic Party.

Whoa doggy! Is Barnett a Trojan Horse of the Straussian neocons or a Trojan Horse of the do-gooding Clintonites? Man, I do sound like a radical if I'm trying to fuse Clinton and W. together into one big happy vision of the future. But if I'm even more a Clintonite-Friedmanite than a Straussian, then how can I be a neocon? Hmmm. Methinks Pinkerton has lived too long inside the Beltway. Perhaps he drank up a bit too much of Lee Atwater during his seminal years with Bush 41 that he sees the world so much in terms of "good Republicans" and "everyone else."


Perhaps an even bigger problem for me: I don't know who Strauss is other than I've heard he was a professor a while back at a school somewhere in the Midwest. Man, if I'm going to be part of this whole conspiracy thing with the neocons, I better read up on the rabbi himself!



Yet Barnett appears to have influence in the U.S. government. In addition to his post at the Naval War College, he has also worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Center for Naval Analyses; if the Pentagon had disapproved of Barnett's bold title, presumably the brass could have stopped him from using it. Instead, they funded his work and even blurbed his book.

Ah yes, the conspiracy reveals itself. Clearly, if I use the word "Pentagon" in the title, the book had to receive official clearance within the Defense Department (just like anyone using "liar" and "Bush" have to clear it with the administration before publishing). As for funding my work, yes, I received a paycheck for my thinking, and later I wrote about that thinking in a bestselling book. Something James himself did, although his book was anything but a bestseller. But clearly, if the White House "funds" your work and you later publish your ideas, that's one thing, whereas if the Pentagon does, that's quite another. And James better read my dust jacket again: no officials of the Pentagon blurb my book using their titles. In fact, only one such official even appears, Art Cebrowski, and his official title is nowhere to be seen. My guess is that James' book has a few ex- or retired (like Cebrowski) government figures blurbing it, but why call the kettle black on that one?



The great work of the 21st century, Barnett says, is for the "connected" Core countries to come to the rescue of the "disconnected" Gap regions. How to do this? One route is foreign aid, another is trade. Yet another is the militaryóyes, armed intervention. That is, the Core must prove its systemic superiority by invading the Gap. Paying no mind to St. Augustine, Barnett explains, "My definition of just wars is exceedingly simple: They must leave affected societies more connected than we found them." In other words, perpetual war for perpetual connectivity.

Pinkerton seems to miss all the arguments about foreign direct investment driving global integration, and being far more influential than trade, aid or the infrequent military interventions I predict. But that's asking too much. Pinkerton's review has all the earmarks of skipping over the "boring chapters," meaning anything that doesn't fit his critique of the neocons. So if I write an entire chapter dissecting the nonsense about "perpetual war," then that goes unmentioned in this review, because it's somewhat inconvenient to the rhetoric.



One might think of Barnett as Friedman with a security clearance. This Pentagon guru declares, "America's national interest in the era of globalization lies primarily in the extension of global economic connectivity." With that single thought in his head, restated endlessly across nearly 400 pages, he reduces all the complexity of the world down to one simplicity: whether or not countries are "connected." And like Friedman, he never doubts that the U.S.óthe worldwide history of failed colonialism notwithstandingócan reliably do the connecting.

Always neat to see a Republican arguing against global economic connectivity as a source of peace and stability, but that's what happens when you feel you're in a battle with the devil: you end up arguing against anything the man says, no matter how sensible. Then again, Pinkerton never offers anything as an alternative explanation other than to reiterate his love for the good old days when we faced off with the commies and Ronnie was our Lone Ranger. But his point is well-taken here: economic connectivity is no guide to anything in terms of war and peace, and the only way it can be encouraged (or the global economy extended) requires the U.S. to become a colonial power. So I guess the end of the Cold War was just one big heyday for colonialization? Or is it now the case that our victory there isn't real, because all it ended up doing was connecting us economically with the East? You know, all those countries we still have "nuclear feuds" with? Maybe I'm being too complex in my thinking here: real point is simply to reiterate that the neocons are bad!



In a weak moment, Barnett admits, "globalization's progressive advance will trigger more nationalism around the world, not less." Then he catches himselfóthe cure for measles of nationalism, he insists, is more globalism. "For each time we expand globalization's Functioning Core, we expand for all those living within it the freedom of choice, movement and expression." Prosperity, in other words, begets harmony.

Yes, one does expect the worlds "prosperity begets harmony" to be mocked in The American Conservative. My God! What was I thinking! Nationalism is really a good thing . . . or. . . wait a minute? What's Pinkerton's point here? Oh yes, NEOCONS ARE BAD!



But is affluence really the antidote to war? As Aristotle once observed, no tyrant ever conquered a city because he was cold and hungry. And the Stagyrite knew whereof he spoke: his pupil Alexander the Great suffered little deprivation in his Macedonian royal family. Yet Alexander's chosen form of "movement and expression" was to conquer the world.

Is it just me, or does this analysis strike you as palpably pinheaded? Because Aristotle tutored Alexander and Alexander did a lot of conquering and yet wasn't cold and hungry himself, then anybody who thinks "prosperity begets harmony" is really misguided? Follow that? Man, who can argue with a Big Brain that works like that? Wow! You're right Jim, prosperity equals war, cause Aristotle said so.



Indeed, Barnett even sees China as "a serious strategic partner in managing global stability." Do I hear the word "Taiwan"? Only by ignoring a dozen nuclear-edged feuds among the richer nations does Barnett get to the Friedman Stationóto the terminus of a certain historical view, to the place where history ends because everyone is sitting peaceful and pretty. That is, if they are on the right side of the global tracks.

So Taiwan means the U.S. and China can never be strategic partners? Despite our hugely overlapping economic interests? Man, who's lacking realism on that one?


As for the "dozen nuclear-edged feuds" inside the Core, who in hell is Pinkerton talking about? Is the US feuding with France to the point where anyone expects nukes to fly any time soon? China, to whom we're selling supercomputers? India, where much of our R&D is heading? Russia (oh, of course, we'll have always Moscow, James!)? Russia with China? India with China? Do we describe all these relationships as "nuclear-edged feuds"? Man, is Pinkerton still living in the good old days of the 1980s? Or am I just being a fuzzy-headed "globalist"?



If some of this is starting to seem familiar, that's because those ideas that were not cribbed from Friedman were taken from Wolfowitz.

This line sums up the review most of all: all Pinkerton sees in this book is Friedman and Wolfowitz, both of whom he obviously despises, and so my book is totally "cribbed" from them. When Pinkerton puts on his glasses, one lense is tinted with Wolfowitz and the other with Friedman, so guess what? He sees their influence everywhere! I have over 400 pages of material, but that's all BS compared to whenever he sees even the slightest evidence of their nefarious thinking!



Thus we come to "The National Security Strategy of the United States," released by the White House in September 2002. That document, on which Wolfowitz had been working while serving in the Bush 41 administration a decade earlier, asserted that the world now has only "a single sustainable model for national success: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise."

But since not everyone recognizes the blessings of this single modelóaka the American Wayóthe U.S. should intervene as necessary to give history a shove. Operation Iraqi Freedom was the beta test for the new strategy. And although the war hasn't gone exactly as planned, President Bush continued to prove that theory often trumps reality, insistently describing Iraq as the first step on the long march to peace and freedom for the world.


Yes, here we come to the real crux of the matter, of the National Security Strategy that I mention once in the book on page 242, referencing it as a new rule set. Clearly it lies at the heart of my book because I go on and on about it soóan entire subordinate clause, for that matter. But no matter, Pinkerton wants to write about it and this review is just a pretext for that. I mean, my book is so bereft of ideas, why not bring in the National Security Strategy and Alexander the Great while you're at it?



Yet interestingly, the word "neoconservative" never appears in this book's index. In fact, Barnett goes to great lengths to disguise the neocon-y nature of his argument. At one point, he launches into a reverie in which he claims to be "the real Fox Mulder," referring to the '90s TV show "The X-Files." Continuing in his self-dramatization, Barnett describes a sinister conspiracy inside the U.S. government: "Now the ZOG [Zionist Occupation Government, a term used by Timothy McVeigh types] conspirators basically have control of the Pentagon, with the Jews Paul Wolfowitz and Doug Feith running the show." The ZOG running the military? What are we supposed to make of that? One suspects that the purpose here is for us to have a good laugh, thus chuckling away legitimate concerns that perhaps neocon world-historical utopians are careening America over a cliff top.

Hmm, that is suspicious! So the whole X-File parody was nothing of the sort! But really an attempt to throw people off the trail!


What a minute? Didn't I admit it as such in the parody! I mean, it was a parody, right?


Or was it?



The suspicion Barnett is carrying heavy neocon baggage, however disguisedly, increases as he turns toward the Middle East; there he wipes away centuries of history and oceans of blood with his simplifying globalizing brush. "What makes suicide bombers possible?" he asks. The answer: "It's not the poverty, because most of the terrorists are middle class and educated. It's that they have no realistic expectations of a better life for themselves or their children." This economic-determinist dogma might amuse the late Mohammad Atta, the Egyptian-born ringleader of 9/11, who had made his way to affluent Germany before embracing al-Qaeda ideology. Nor would it explain the mysterious rise in suicide bombing in "liberated" Iraq, rising from, well, zero into the hundreds since the Connectivity invasion. In fact, as Robert Paper of the University of Chicago demonstrated, the single biggest factor in suicide bombing is the bombers' desire to drive out foreign occupiers. Pape goes unmentioned by Barnett.

Yes, another suspicious item! I don't mention Pape, but an entirely different terrorism expert who makes the same argument I do about "diminished expectations" being the key cause of terrorism. Weird huh?


And again, Atta would have been amused, because clearly he saw a better life for himself and his non-children in having the Middle East join the global economy. So the whole connectivity argument is specious, clearly. I mean, suicide bombers are trying to drive Westerners out of the Middle East, so their actions have nothing to do with resisting connectivity!



Instead, Barnett plows ahead with his variable-less view of the world, leading him to dismiss all patriots everywhere as retrogrades: "When individuals cannot find opportunity in life, they are reduced to fighting over what's left over: the land and the cultural identity they attach to its history." Such nostalgic rootedness, he maintains, is only for losers. It's far better to "define a society by connectivity and the individual opportunities it provides." Then, Barnett cheers, "You will see the primordial attachment to the land disappear . . . as mobility trumps tradition." So when that Great SUV-Day arrives, patriotism will become obsolete. And as for Americans, we can build condos atop Bunker Hill and pave over Gettsbury.

Yes, the crux of my vision says that to be a good American is to put condos on Bunker Hill and pave over Gettsyburg and thereby "dismiss patriots everywhere." God, Pinkerton nailed me on that one! So the insurgents in Iraq are really patriots, and if they want to behead our people and stream it over the Internet rather than accept a McDonald's on their block, then dang it, I've got to learn how to respect such losers . . . uh . . I mean "patriots."



Barnett ends by offering a world-fixing to-do list: "ten steps toward this world worth creating." And although the book was published just this year, it looks as though he might want to rework some of his presentation slides.

The first item on his list has already been tried: The Iraq War. Dutiful apparatchik that he is, Barnett lauds "our efforts to recreate Iraq as a functioning, connected society within the global economy." We feel no surprise thereóalthough maybe his further prediction, that "the Middle East will be transformed over the next two decades" needs to be tweaked a bit.


Sigh! Pinkerton's already given up on the entire Middle East changing whatsoever over the next two decades. . . But he's right, we should give up now after one good try and just admit that we'll never win this global war on terrorism. That's what Ronnie would have done in this situation, just like when he pulled out the Marines from Lebanon and basically wrote off the Middle East for the rest of his administrationóexcept for Iran-Contra, of course.



Item two on the list: apply the Iraq solution to North Korea. Writing with the jingoistic breeziness of someone who has never seen combat and never understood how a war turns out, Barnett announces, "Kim Jong Il must be removed from power and Korea must be reunited." He add, "There is simply no good reason why Northeast Asia should put up with this nutcase any longer."

I guess because Jim was never on welfare he probably never should have written about domestic policy in the first Bush administration. The fact that I've spent a career working with the military doesn't mean anything because I haven't seen combat. Then again, not that many in the military actually do see combat, so they must all be idiots about such matters as well. So the only people who should opine about war and peace should be combat vets, just like only cancer survivors should be oncologists, and only ex-cons should be judges. Education and training is completely worthless. If you haven't REALLY experienced something, you know absolutely nothing about it.



Of course, some might argue that the "good reasons" for negotiating with Pyongyang include its six to eight nuclear weapons. But if neoconservatism doesn't exist in Barnett's exoteric vocabulary, it's no surprise that realism doesn't feature in the text of his book.

Geez, wouldn't Ronnie have said, "Mr. Kim, tear down that DMZ!" Then again, Ronnie was such a dreamer . . ..



Item three: Iran. Once again, Barnett sees regime change as a great idea. Echoing his neocon mentors, he wants to make "Iran the greatest reclamation project the world has ever seen."

Actually, I wrote that line about Iraq (p. 380), not Iran, but why quibble when Pinkerton's on a roll. I mean, anyone who cites your dust-jacket that much clearly gave your book a close read. If I actually didn't call for an invasion of Iran, no matter, Jim knows what the neocons really want and that's all this review is about anyway.



"Reagan didn't win the Cold War but had it handed to him on a silver platter." In other words, according to Barnett's revisionist history, the world situation that Ronald Reagan inherited from Jimmy Carter in 1981óSoviets occupying Afghanistan, NATO drifting toward defeatism, pro-Castro forces winning in Central Americaópresented nothing more than a silver-platter challenge.

So we thing again of that one group of nominally conservative thinkers who argue that the Gipper is overrated. Yup, it's the neocons, the Straussian silent partners in Barnett's book. They're the ones who lump Reagan in with the quarter-century of American presidents before Bush 43 in order to support the claim that America's Middle East policy has been weak and morally cloudy since the fall of the Shah of Iran.


No, Jim's right on that one. Reagan's record in the Middle East was a fabulous one: success after success. America won the war in Afghanistan by giving arms to the mujahadeen and growing Osama and al-Qaeda in the process, plus setting Pakistan on the wonderful path it follows today, so no moral cloudiness there. America also got those wobbly Euros in line by giving them really big missiles. And we won in Central America in a completely non-morally cloudy way, by funneling lotsa arms to the killing squads of the Contras.


Yes, the Iran-Contra scandal and the secret foreign policy shop running arms out of the basement of the White House while Ronnie sleptónow that's a clear and morally unambiguous way to run a national security strategy!


Ah, but that's being unfair. Jim didn't have anything to do with any of that because he's not a foreign policy or national security expert whatsoever, which is why it's perfect that he's reviewing my book. It wouldn't be fair for me to lump him into some conspiracy with Oliver North. That was a completely different part of the White Houseómany doors down the hall.


Pinkerton can just lump me in with the neocons because he knows the inner workings of the Office of the Secretary of Defense like all domestic White House advisers do.


* * *


All in all, this is one of those times where your book feels like a bit player in its own review!


Pinkerton wanted to rag on the neocons, and PNM gave him the excuse. When the material fit his preferred diatribe, it was included, when not, it was simply ignored. He also went out of his way to ignore all the material on analyzing the Gap, analyzing the new form of crisis represented by 9/11, the whole argument about new rules for national security, the whole strategy of trying to shrink the Gap by using a multi-pronged approach emphasizingómost of all--stable legal rule sets leading to foreign direct investment flows. Pinkerton bypassed my model of how globalization works in terms of energy, FDI, immigration and security flows, my description of the Leviathan-SysAdmin split, and my long delineation of the American way of war. Instead, my vision is described as nothing more than a map and a few factoids and a complete disregard for history, even though the book is chocked full of history (none of which he apparently agrees withóespecially dissing Reagan!).


In the end, my book is not reviewed here. All that's reviewed is Pinkerton's unwavering hatred for those he calls the neocons. Pinkerton can't review anything beyond his dislike for neocons because he's not a foreign relations expert, not a historian of international affairs, not a warfare expert, nor he is attuned to global economics. He sounds off vehemently on immigration, which he obviously worries about, and that's it in terms of the vision. Oh, and he reminds us that prosperity doesn't lead to peace.


Why Pinkerton can't review my book other than to say it's all wrong because the occupation (not the war) in Iraq went badly and thus any Bush Administration attempt to foster change in the Middle East will clearly fail, is because he has nothing to offer instead. Clearly, he worries over globalization and "globalism" (whatever the hell that word means), but does he offer any ideas or counterpoints to any of the arguments I make, other than to say history has already judged it and found it wanting?


So his review is basically, "I hate neocons and what they've done to the GOP."


Oh . .. and "I hate this book because it's clearly influential."

7:39AM

2004 Thanksgiving Rhode Island Essay Contest

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 25 November 2004

Grade 7, Second Place

By Emily Barnett, All Saints Academy, Middletown


The thing I'm most grateful for is my sister, Vonne Mei Ling Barnett. We have just adopted here from China this summer. My parents went to China for two weeks, which is a long time. It took them so long because it took about two or three days to get there, then once they were there and had retrieved Vonne Mei, my parents had to stay one week in China. After that, my parents came back home and brought Vonne Mei with them.


Vonne Mei is the new joy of my life because she is a really wonderful little girl. Every morning, I help feed and dress her, and every morning, I love her more. I am so grateful for her because now I have a sister, a sister who is beautiful. She has almond-shaped brown eyes, tiny hands that are always reaching and most gorgeous of all, her smile. Every time she smiles, I want to hold her close and never let her go. My new sister is the greatest thing in my life right now, and I'm extremely grateful for her. I wouldn't give her up for the world.

11:22AM

C-SPAN broadcasting the brief on 6 December in prime time

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 24 November 2004

No article blogging today or tomorrow. I will catch up on Friday.


Just a quick note today to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving day tomorrow, and to give a head's up on the lastest word from C-SPAN's producers. After much negotiation, C-SPAN is going to broadcast my brief again--the supermax version of roughly 2.5 hours in length!


This broadcast will air the night of 6 December, Monday, in prime-time (believe it will be around 7pm). Immediately following the brief, I will appear live on C-SPAN in their main Washington, DC studio to take questions from callers over the air.


The presentation to be broadcast that night will be taped a week earlier at a military base in the greater DC area, meaning this will be a new, slightly updated version of the brief from the one broadcast Labor Day weekend (the National Defense University brief of 2 June).


I'm excited about doing it all over again for C-SPAN, and feel really honored that they not only wanted to broadcast the brief again, but wanted the most up-to-date and complete version they could get. The live Q&A in the studio following the show should be interesting, because I've never done that before (take questions from call-ins on TV, although I've done it plenty on radio).


I post this message now, even though some of the details might change (you know TV: it ain't for sure until the tape actually starts), but that is the plan for now and I'm pretty sure it's going to hold, because C-SPAN needs me in DC to get the Q&A and the only night I'll be there between now and Xmas is the 6th of December.


So tell anybody you want to see it that it'll be on C-SPAN again.

5:03PM

Briefing the managers at C.I.A.

Dateline: Original Headquarters Building (OHB), CIA, 23 November 2004

"Bush Wants Plan for Covert Pentagon Role: Studying paramilitary operations that the C.I.A. now runs," by Douglas Jehl, New York Times, 23 November 2004, p. A18.

"Bush Urged to Get Pentagon In Step on Intelligence Bill," by Elisabeth Bumiller and Philip Shenon, New York Times, 23 November 2004, p. A18.


Flew down to DC today on a 0610 US Airways flight directly to Reagan National instead of my usual SWA flight into BWI. Why? The Agency is paying for my travel, and for some weird reason, they couldn't book SWA directly, so unless I wanted to make it complicated, it had to be US Airways through Reagan. What sucked about that was the very early-morning flight because US has so few direct flights (only one would have gotten me here in time for a noontime speech and it was the 0610), plus I can't fly out until 5pm. That combo makes for a nice 16-hour workday.


Ah, the logic of government contracting.


Nonetheless, it was nice to be asked to come down to Langley and brief a collection of the Agency's mid-level managers. Plus, the CIA really treats you nicely when you come to talk, giving you VIP parking (plenty of spots today, given the proximity of the holiday) and putting you up in an office if need be (two courtesies that have disappeared in the Pentagon since 9/11 due to a combo of security measures plus all the rebuilding/rehabbing of the place that will continue forever!). Plus they have their clearance-checking system in good shape, meaning that if you do the paperwork right, you can actually go to the bathroom without an escort.


I came into the building via the original entrance of the Original Headquarters Building, or OHB. This building used to be the entire facility until they created the modern, far more sleek greenish building right next door (I believe they call it the NHB, or New Headquarters Building).


I like coming in the old way because it's the entrance that Hollywood always tries to copy. It has the giant inlaid agency logo in the marble floor that you walk over, plus the stars on the walls for all the agents who've died in action over the years. Then there's the original dedication markers and the big statue of William "Wild Bill" Donovan, head of the forerunner agency, the OSS.


Once inside, it's like any other big government building: drab, miles of corridors, lotsa locked doors, and lotsa billboards where the thousands of employees advertise their desires and needs (for roommates, car buyers, car poolers, etc.). Also cool is the spy museum the Agency has here, plus the funky souvenir store (I once got my Dad some CIA golf balls, the joke being, "when you hit them into the rough, don't worry, THEY FIND YOU!").


The brief took place in a modest conference room, and I gave them a medium-sized version of the spiel (75 minutes), with an obvious focus on intell issues. Despite my great sleep deprivation (God I want to sleep in my own bed several nights in a row!), I performed reasonably well, and the Q&A was lively. I also handed out the book to the various seniors in attendance (dutifully signed) and signed a bunch of others for those who brought them along to the talk. All in all a good time, not to mention an interesting time to be back here taking gauge of the intelligence community's mood.


You know, that intelligence community is far less broken than imagined, and real fixes required have littleóif anythingóto do with creating a cabinet-level intell czar. As a group, the 15 elements of the intelligence community interact with each other fairly well. If we would only dial down the classification requirements, this network would work just fine. But because we stovepipe the information in this manner, the networks aren't allowed to function anywhere near peak capacity.


But instead of just dialing down the secrecy, we propose centralization, which by and large negates most of the best attributes of having that distributed network of agencies who all collect, process, and analyze a bit differently from one another. In short, we're more likely to get group think with a National Intelligence Director than without one. But until we rethink the ultra-secrecy of most of these information flows, no amount of deck-chair rearranging will do the trick.


The Pentagon isn't going to give up its control over the overhead assets (where the real money is) to a NID, and frankly, it should logically seek to pull CIA's covert stuff over into its bailiwick, because the overhead stuff defines the information superiority for the Leviathan warfighter, and the CIA muscle logically belongs there as well. This fight over the intell reform bill stems fundamentally from the lack of understanding regarding the natural bifurcation of the intelligence community in response to the natural post-cold-war bifurcation of the US military. In short, certain assets logically migrate to the Leviathan, whereas most of what Congress really wants to see centralized (if they thought about it for a minute) under a NID is far more logically associated with the SysAdmin force.


Here's the essential breakdown:



Leviathan =

Defense Intelligence Agency

Navy Intelligence


Air Force Intelligence


National Security Agency


National Geospatial Intelligence Agency


National Reconnaissance Office


CIA's direct action people.



Sys Admin =

Army Intelligence


Marine Corps Intelligence


Coast Guard


FBI


Dept of Treasury


Dept of Energy


Dept of Homeland Security


Department of State


CIA analytical


National Intelligence Council



That's the crude way of describing it, meaning the splits wouldn't be that neat (but that's how you'd describe the center of gravity for each element). You'd still have a IC-wide community management office that worked info-sharing among it all, but you'd let the various agencies serve their respective masters. In other words, let the Defense agencies, by and large, serve the Leviathan and let the departmental agencies (plus the lion's share of the Marine and Army intell) serve the SysAdmin force.


It was interesting to talk with my hosts after the brief, because the same reform-minded elements who invited me today invite me everywhere else I go in the national security community. As with all cannibalizing agents, they tend to think horizontally and plan adaptively. Never ones to wait on the perfect plan, they more interested in moving ahead and letting the chips fall where they may. But alas, that is always the problem for such reformers: the heavies on top want to see everything clearly before committing, less they lose budgetary control of the process. So again, the enemies of performance tend to be centralization and greed, whereas the proponents of reform tend to favor networking and sharing without reference to cost capture.


Guess which side is better suited to fighting a transnational insurgency of terrorists?


BTW, got another medallion today from my hosts. They opined it might be a collector's item soon, but I hope it won't be. The network-centric forces must prevail.


After the brief, I spoke with one senior manager who said he teaches an annual course for intell managers and that last summer he used the original Esquire PNM article. He said it was almost universally hated by the class, becauseóin his mindóit told them a bunch of things they did not want to hear. He noted that the only other author who seemed to get such a negative response from community managers was Art Cebrowski, my old boss in the Pentagon. I took this as a real complimentólike father, like son.


Anyway, glad this long day is my last for . . . I dunno, a week I guess. So it's back to Reagan and yet another flight home. Thank God we're not traveling anywhere for Thanksgiving. To me (especially this year), holidays are for staying put.


Here's today's catch, on a need-to-know basis!:



Sharing SysAdmin knowledge with Iraqi bureaucrats

Around the horn in China


America: the land of mutts and geniuses


A good example of why Puerto Rico really is in the Gap


5:02PM

Sharing SysAdmin knowledge with Iraqi bureaucrats

"Iraqis Get Lesson in Bureaucracy: Senior Executives Share Knowledge," by Christopher Lee, Washington Post, 23 November 2004, p. A21.


Yesterday I read Francis Fukuyama's excellent essay on State-Building. I say "essay" even though it's a book stretching a whopping 131 pages. Sometimes I get the review that says PNM should have remained a magazine article instead of a book, but frankly, compared to Fukuyama's "slim volume," PNM is crammed full of ideas.


Nonetheless, Fukuyama's book puts his usual brilliance on display, as he skillfully disaggregates both the concept of "stateness" and the phases of state-building. One thing you immediately take away from the book is that the most easily transferable skill-set is that of public administration, or setting up the basic rule sets for making the government function in terms of processing the typical demands from a populace for things like driver's licenses, business permits, etc.


Yes, it's boring stuff, but it's that sort of boring rule set that makes the world go round, so teaching it to former failed/authoritarian states is crucial to helping them leave their Gapdom and join the Core:



Abdul Hadi K. Abid, the head of private-sector development for the trade ministry, said a big challenge is changing the mind-set of ordinary citizens who grew accustomed to life under a command economy in which the changing whims of the rule had the force of law.

"For example, dealing in foreign currency: One day it's a crime where they cut your hand or your ear for it, and the next day it was perfectly legal," Abid said.


By publishing a monthly magazine called Iraqi Trade and through other efforts, Abid said he is trying to promote public debate on market economics and raise issues such as transparency in government policy-making.


Boring yes, but a fundamentally crucial task if you're going to win a Global War on Terrorism. Weak or bad governments must be replaced by good one. Bad rule sets must be replaced by efficient ones. Disconnectedness must be replaced by connectivity.

5:01PM

America: the land of mutts and geniuses

"Rejecting the Next Bill Gates," op-ed by Fareed Zakaria, Washington Post, 23 November 2004, p. A29.


One of the reasons why I support letting non-native born Americans run for president is that this country is essentially mongrel in character and will only grow more so in coming decades. We've never had a higher percentage of foreign-born citizens than we do right now, and that's primarily a result of the huge influx of immigrants (unprecedented in sheer numbers) across the 1990s, the first decade of nearly-global globalization (with the Core expanding to include two-thirds of humanity).


For the U.S. to remain open to this historic process, I favor the quickest and simplest routes for immigrants to become citizens, and for foreign-born citizens, after living in the U.S. for a quarter-century or more, to be granted the right to run for national office (we have only twoópresident and vice-president). When we created the amendment to ban foreign-born presidents, we were living under the long shadow of our birth as British colonies, and the fear that drove that rule set was that British citizens might use that loophole to come over here and re-establish control, so to speak. That fear is a long-gone concept (although I don't doubt a Tony Blair would clean up here in any presidential run), and given the fact that one-third or more of our citizens in 2050 are likely to be foreign-born, it makes sense to reverse the now outdate rule.


One of the great efficiencies of our system is that, if you're secretly Bill Gates, or Steven Spielberg, or Michael Jordan, this is the place to come and find full outlet for that talent. There is no economic system in the world that rewards talent like ours, which is why the U.S. has so long been such an incredible magnet for talents professionals from all over the world.


That magnetic attraction will naturally diminish as other rising poles of the Functioning Core (like China, India, etc.) grow their own forms of magnetism, but it can also be artificially depressed by our own policies toward guest workers, student visas, and immigration in general.


I am scared, as is my former fellow grad student Fareed Zakaria, by the heavy drop in foreign students studying in the U.S. since 9/11, because this is the first downward movement in that trend in more than three decades. Undergrads from China have dropped 20 percent in 2004 (45 percent in grad students), and the similar numbers for India are 9 percent (undergrads) and 28 percent (grads).


Here's why it matters:



Some Americans might say, "Good riddance, it's their loss," Actually the greater loss is ours. American universities benefit from having the best students from across the globe. But the single most deadly effect of this trends is the erosion of American capacity in science and technology. The U.S. economy has powered ahead in large part because of the amazing productivity of America's science and technology. Yet that research is now down largely by foreign students. The National Science Board (NSB) documented this reality last year, finding that 38 percent of doctorate holders in America's science and engineering workforce are foreign-born. Foreigners make up more than half of the students enrolled in science and engineering programs. The dirty little secret about America's scientific edge is that it's largely produced by foreigners and immigrants.

One way how the Defense Department spreads it's influence around the world is its educating of many of the world's military leaders in institutions like the Naval War College. Same thing is true for U.S. higher education in general, especially in places like the University of Chicago, which is famous for cranking out economic leaders for foreign governments.


All that influence is put at risk by this aspect of our Global War on Terrorism. The flow of people, as I describe it in PNM, is crucial to making America the country it is today. Mess with that flow, and you mess with America's economic and political future.


[p.s., is it just me, or does anyone else notice that Fareed basically publishes the same piece--word for word--each week in both Newsweek and the Washington Post? No offense, but isn't that sort of cheating?]

5:01PM

Around the horn in China

"A Tricky Transition in China: Manufacturers Adapt to Lure More-Sophisticated Consumers," by Ginny ParkerWall Street Journal, 23 November 2004, p. A17.

"A Cash Crop, a Better Life: Farmers Find Profit Niche In China's Industrial Boom," by Peter S. Goodman, Washington Post, 23 November 2004, p. E1.


"China, India Turn to Ecuador in Search for Oil," by Joel Millman, Wall Street Journal, 23 November 2004, p. A17.


"Bears (Take Interest) in China's Shop: Hedge Funds Aim to Profit From Stock-Market Rally, But Shorting is Difficult," by Laura Santini, Wall Street Journal, 23 November 2004, p. C3.


China's growing consumer market is changing the way foreign investors look at China. Instead of viewing it simply as a place to make things for other markets, increasingly big corporations are looking at China as a place to design and manufacture consumer goods for domestic markets. To really access that market, you have to customize for local tastes, and that typically means teaming up with local players, but the fear here is the loss of technology to eventual competitors. Is China unique in this danger? Not really. Any emerging market tends to demonstrate this promise/pitfall, but the necessary rule sets do emerge with time, in part because all those foreign companies entering the marketplace eventually demand it.


The demand created by the rising consumer class not only draw in foreign investors but likewise is remaking the rural countryside by creating niche cash crops that are directly linked to the country's industrial boom. The second article describes the reformatting of significant portions of China's rural farms in the direction of growing rubber trees for the country's burgeoning need for tires for all those cars desired by the emerging consumer class.


This demand not only changes crops in the countryside, it changes mind-sets:



"In our tradition, we rely on our land to feed us," said Li [Ziqie, 25], who was a boy when the first meeting about the rubber project was held here. "We were really suspicious at first. My father wanted us to use just a small portion of our land for a pilot project. Some people said, 'Why plant rubber? You cannot eat the trees.' But eventually, he agreed to devote 30 mu. We were really nervous. If we couldn't grow enough food, then what?"

The Li family reached into meager savings and sank nearly $80 into the project. They planted 800 trees.


By 1996 the Li family was generating income in the range of $800 per year, and some families now earn upwards of $4,000/yr, which is a huge income in China.


Here's the real change: now Li's father no longer plants rice, instead buying that in the village. That's connectivity. That's mutually-assured dependence. That's the creation of real wealth where none previously could be generated.


The downside of all that consumer demand, however, is the requirement for far more energy than the country can generate on its own, which is why China, like India, is scouring the planet for oil, often going where Old Core companies fear to tread (like shaky Ecuador) or simply cannot because of political restrictions (Iran).


The other downside to this process of expansive growth is thatótraditionallyówhat goes up must eventually come down somewhat, which is why you're seeing Wall Street beginning to discount, largely through derivatives at this point, the inevitably recession that must someday afflict China.


Here's hoping that, when that fall inevitably occurs, our security relationship with China is one helluva lot more secure than it is today. To me, that would be the U.S. government discounting that danger politically, reflecting what I hope would be our leadership's ability to start seeing China within the context of everything else so that it understands why any military conflict with China would invariably affect that everything else.

4:59PM

A good example of why Puerto Rico really is in the Gap

"Puerto Rico is dangerous ground for police: Much of violence linked to drug traffickers using island, by Kevin Johnson, USA Today, 23 November 2004, p. 5A.


I catch grief from some readers because this or that state is either inside or outside the Gap. People tend to take this designation very personally, and I understand the frustration. When I first drew the map, I simply drew my line around the icons representing the instances of U.S. military crisis response activity in the post-Cold War period without any great reference to the countries that Gap shape encompassed. That's true primarily because the map I use in my brief is rather iconic in its simplicity, failing to include small islands and not delineated in terms of national borders or state names.


When I got to the point of publishing the original article with Esquire, I was pushed by Bill McNulty of the New York Times, who constructed the map for the magazine, to get very specific about where the Core-Gap dividing line should be. That's because it's McNulty's style to have ultra-crisp maps (or should I say, it's the style of the Times). So he kept calling me up as he built the map, asking about this or that country, as in, "in or out?"


So I had to make a lot of choices, knowing that I really viewed the line less as a clear demarcation and more like a fuzzy, fat seamóor more like a deep beach against which the waves of globalization lapped constantly, altering the make-up of the shoreline. One of those choices was basically to include the entire Caribbean in the Gap, along with the southern (i.e., Chiapas) state of Mexico. Why be so inclusive/exclusive?


It's weird, but Caribbean islands are both slimly connected and more than disconnected as both tourism spots and off-shore banking facilities. Both ventures desire a minimal form of connectivity, but no more. If you're too connected in terms of tourism, you're not really a "get away from it all" spot. And if you're an off-shore banking center, you want certain basic forms of flows, but not exactly the oversightóif you know what I mean.


But the real reason why I chose to keep the entire Caribbean inside the Gap is the question of smugglingóboth in terms of drugs and people.


Puerto Rico is technically part of the United States as a U.S. territory, but it's not really part of the United States, meaning it's not a state, and that's what makes up these "united states." Part of why that's happened, meaning why PR has never become a state, is because of the way we've chosen to structure the political and economic system there. In effect, we've disincentivized statehood to a significant degree.


Lacking such statehood, PR is far more Gap-like than any U.S. state, and that should be no surprise. As the article says, "Puerto Rico may be an island paradise for tourists, but it's also one of the most dangerous places in the world to be a cop."


PR is an island of less than 4 million citizens, yet the number of cops who die there every year outnumber the states of Florida (best comparable in terms of drug interdiction issues) and New York (police capital of the world), two states whose combined population is over 50 million. Only the huge states of Texas and California have recorded more cop killings since 1994.


The drug trade is the prime reason for the high level of killings, since PR is a "staging area for illicit shipments of cocaine and heroin heading to the U.S. mainland from Colombia."


What has pushed this up-tick since 9/11 is the U.S.'s crackdown on traditional smuggling routes through Mexico and Central America, which means Puerto Rico has become more Gap-like as a result of America's attempt to firewall itself off from bad things vectoring into the continental U.S. So thanks to the System Perturbation of 9/11, Puerto Rico is more negatively connected to the United States.

4:53PM

Talking the Future of War with CNN

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 22 November 2004

CNN's Paula Zahn show came by the college today in the person of correspondent Tom Foreman to interview me regarding an upcoming series on "future war." Like with the German "PBS" crew, we shot this in my office. Foreman really liked PNM and asked a lot of great questions, but I will confess that I didn't feel like I performed that well. Then again, I never feel I perform that well in such situations (the pre-taped stuff) and I guess I know why.


When it's live, the reporters tend to ask you easier questions (more specific) because everyone wants the process to go as perfectly as possible. The joy/pain of the taped interview like this one is: they will cut up the tape later and splice the best answers together for the produced segment. So I think that's why reporters like doing it this way: they can ask tougher and more broad questions, knowing they can scrub out all the bad bits and grab only the best lines (which, of course, is a lot of work for them, I would imagine). But better they work hard than me.


Anyway, despite my feeling like I sucked, Foreman was very complimentary. Of course, they always are, but I didn't feel like he was comforting me, rather that he was really psyched about interviewing me and about the series he was working on, which is really cool, because you always want to interact with people who are psyched about what they do.


Foreman's enthusiasm was needed today, since I felt a bit burned out from lack of sleep. I stayed up last night until midnight to watch the Pack beat the Texans with ANOTHER TIME-RUNNING-OUT FIELD GOAL!


Better yet, this was the first football game I have ever watched on HDTV, and it was spectacularóI mean, SPECTACULAR!


Here's today's catch:



Another good take on Putin's "silver bullet"

Iran's "Nixon" Considering Getting Kicked Around Again


Why America's definition of "genocide" is the only one that matters


"Greater China" eclipsing China as a "great power"


The Netherlands is joined by the Global War on Terrorism


The New Core is the future of environmental degradation and environmentalism


Japan sounds more ready to deal on North Korea


The "world election" needs a more globalized slate of candidates


The automatic first economic step in any SysAdmin job


4:51PM

Why America's definition of "genocide" is the only one that matters

"In Sudan, a Sense of Abandonment: Crisis Victims See Little Help From Outside," by Emily Wax, Washington Post, 16 November 2004, p. A1.


I know I've covered this thing many times before. The only reason I cite this article is the following: to highlight the African Union's sad attempt to plus up its "observer force" from 700 to 3,000. The AU asked for $220m in donations to finance the effort, and got only $140m pledged, so nothing has happened. The plus-up is designed to make the force something closer to a peacekeeping force, instead of just note-takers, but Sudan has been adamant about not letting in any such peacekeepers, only "observers."


How many peacekeepers would be needed? Good estimate is 44,000. So is the observing helping in the absence of peacekeeping? According to one experienced Canadian general, "The mission of observing will do nothing except destroy the credibility of African Union troops . . . Observing troops getting beaten up and dying is useless."


There will be no 44k peacekeepers without the U.S. military as the hub around which the spokes can be laid. If the US sees no genocide, then it does not matter who does, because there is no critical mass without the Pentagon. No Pentagon, and it ain't on the map.

4:51PM

Iran's "Nixon" Considering Getting Kicked Around Again

"Lion of Iranian Politics May Return for Run at Presidency," by Robin Wright, Washington Post, 16 November 2004, p. A19.


Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was the president of Iran from 1989 to 1997. He was considered the "face of moderation in Iran" during his rule, following Ayatollah Khomeni's death. What marked his time? He opened up Iran considerably to outside connectivity, to include reviving the Shah's stock market and letting Beethoven music and Arthur Miller's plays to be performed in Tehran.


Sounds like dÈtente with the Sovs, does it not.


Rafsanjani was succeeded by the presumed Gorby-like reformer Mohammad Khatami, who apparently has little expectation of being approved by the resurgent mullahs to run again. Khatami's plans for Iran has not born much fruit, and instead suffered a reactionary setback following 9/11 and the start of the whole Axis of Evil thing. If Rafsanjani wins approval from the mullahs to run again, his resurrection would be on par with Nixon winning the presidency in 1968 after being out of politics for so long.


How likely? He is described as "the leading candidate to become Iran's next president, according to Iranian politicians and analysts."


Here's the real question then: is this the guy whose regime we want to change? Or is this the guy we want to make some SALT-like deal to start a serious dÈtente?


Think about itÖ