Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 7:25AM COMMENTARY: Iranians Favor Peace Deal with U.S., By Amjad Atallah, New America Foundation, with Ken Ballen, President, Terror Free Tomorrow: the Center for Public Opinion, CNN.com, June 8, 2009
The logic is there. We'll see what opportunities emerge with an Obama team that-- for the first time in decades--is actually thinking strategically across the region as a whole.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 3:22AM OP-ED: After Cairo, It's Clinton Time, By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, New York Times, June 6, 2009
Good sensible argument from Friedman re: the need to finish off strongly on Iraq vice wasting effort on the 2-state solution. The latter just isn't in the cards this term, while the former is crucial to the U.S., to Obama, and to the region's stability.
(Thanks: Dan Hare)
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 3:14AM ARTICLE: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/08/AR2009060800089.html, By Blaine Harden, Washington Post, June 9, 2009
The DPRK is going out its way to pick any and all fights.
Time for the full-court press, in my opinion.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 2:05AM NATIONAL: "More States Using GPS to Trace Abusers and Stalkers," by Ariana Green, New York Times, 9 May 2009.
Terrorism comes in many forms, these being the most likely ones for average Americans.
Indiana was the 13th state to pass a law making such tracking possible.
Great stuff.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 2:04AM BOOK REVIEW: "Field of Dreams (Outcasts United, by Warren Saint John)," by SOMEBODY, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 4-10 May 2009.
The call-out text here states a simple truth:
The xenophobes and protectionists who argue that immigrants cost jobs have it exactly wrong. Newcomers create jobs and they always have. A report by the Center for an Urban Future recently described immigrants as "entrepreneurial sparkplugs," and the reason is obvious. If they weren't risk-takers, they wouldn't be here.
America in a demographic/economic nutshell.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 2:02AM OP-ED: "Is Rape Serious?" by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, 30 April 2009.
Scary description of how many rape kits around the country never get tested. They simply pile up.
Then there's NYC, which made a big effort in last decade to speed up the process, raising its arrest rate from 40% to 70% in the process.
Throughout its long history, NYC has been a huge force of innovation in municipal services. It apparently remains so to this day.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 at 2:01AM NATIONAL: "Panel Advises Clarifying U.S. Plans on Cyberwar," by John Markoff and Thom Shanker, New York Times, 30 April 2009.
Best bit:
Admiral [William A.] Owens said at a news conference Wednesday in Washington that the notion of "enduring unilateral dominance in cyberspace" by the United States was not realistic in part because of the low cost of the technologies required to mount attacks. He also said the idea that offensive attacks were "nonrisky" military options was not correct.
Owens is almost always the smartest guy in the room and he proves it once again here.
Remember his words as you continue to be subjected to all these scare stories coming out of the U.S. Government.
In general, the panel members say America should remain vague on what it can do offensively and what it will do in retaliation, very much in line with nuclear practices.
I agree.
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 4:50AM As the World Health Organization agonizes over whether or not to declare the H1N1 flu virus an official pandemic, I can't help but think of the American national security establishment's continuing struggle over the definition of threat in a post-9/11 world. In both instances, we see institutions with worldwide responsibilities coming to grips with an increasingly interconnected global landscape. And although that global landscape, according to all the available data, suffers less catastrophe, it nonetheless appears to present far greater potential for such catastrophes to unfold with seemingly uncontrollable consequences.
Continue to read Tom's The New Rules column for this week at WPR.
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 3:31AM SPECIAL REPORT "SURVIVING THE SLUMP": "The fragile web of foreign trade: The recession makes globalization more necessary, but more precarious," by Robert Guest, The Economist, 30 May 2009.
This is a rare Economist bit where the content does not address--much less deliver--the title.
Piece starts out by noting how temporal the concept of "Chimerica" may prove to be (from economists Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick), but then goes on to give a lot of reasons to believe in its staying power (basically my bit about "imagine a world in which China doesn't demand US T-bills and a world in which Americans don't demand Chinese goods"--emphasizing the power of demand v. supply), to include the notion that Chinese and American companies are becoming blended in many instances (e.g., a Wal-Mart that rents Chinese labor becomes a larger thing that is sort of Chinese and sort of American--I expect a lot more of this in the future, to include a lot of Chinese investment in American companies).
Instead of noting the end of corporate America's love affair with China (cheap labor creating elaborate supply chains), Guest correctly argues that most corps go to China today for the consumers (that demand again) instead of suppliers.
Bit ends with a patched-up para that argues America's reliance on globalization generally, but--again--the title of the piece simply isn't delivered.
Instead, the sum total of the article is "Chimerica--love it or leave it."
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 3:28AM MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Iraq's Kurdish oil: Kurdistan goes glug glug; The federal government is letting Iraq's Kurds export from their new oilfields," The Economist, 30 May 2009.
Maliki may be letting contracts on Kirkuk to keep it out of the Kurds' grasp (and their alleged desires for independence, lest they achieve this critical mass), but while the right hand taketh away, the left allows Kurdish oil to flow, suggesting that whatever the national petro law says, some respect will be shown to Kurdish autonomy within Iraq.
We're talking the first new oil field development in Iraq in 30 years--the Kurds leading the way despite the supposed controversy of the PSAS (production-sharing agreements where foreign firms get 10-20% of the profit off the top before the rest of the revenue is sent to Baghdad for the usual distro--the Kurds getting something like 17% based on population). The first foreign companies in are Dutch and Turkish (so much for fearing the rise of the Kurds, the practical Turks decide to make money instead). The row between Irbil and Baghdad is mostly about who cuts the deals first off, as the Kurds want to develop their own fields even as they admit they will share the revenue with the rest of Iraq as previously agreed. Baghdad wants to approve all deals. The Kurds have a hydrocarbon law in place, the south does not.
Projections for Kurdish production would have the three northern provinces cranking 42% of Iraq's oil production in 2012--if the south can do no better in the meantime. But since even civilian casualties in Iraq have tanked, that seems unlikely.
Meanwhile, the Kurds enjoy showing up the "decrepitude of Iraq's oil establishment," says the Economist, which overplays, IMHO, Baghdad's antipathy.
In truth, Baghdad may be learning the benefits of federalism--as in, let the provinces experiment and then have the center follow the fastest.
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 3:26AM ARTICLE: Afghan Strategy Requires 'Holistic' Approach, General Tells Senate,By Samantha L. Quigley, American Forces Press Service, June 2, 2009
Key line: "What I do know is a military-centric strategy will not succeed."
War within the context of everything else.
(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 2:58AM INTERNATIONAL: "China Relents on Status Of Taiwan at U.N. Agency," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 30 April 2009.
ASIA: "Taiwan and the WHO: A healthy development; A shot in the arm for Ma-Ying-jeou," The Economist, 2 May 2009.
BUSINESS: "Chinese investment in Taiwan: Strait deals; Acrimony between China and Taiwan gives way to business deals," The Economist, 9 May 2009.
The Chinese rewarding Ma for his efforts, very much in line with the times (swine flu scare). China only looked bad blocking this access.
A good sign that the economic integration proceeds well enough that Beijing is less concerned on the political front about Taiwan's perceived independence.
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 2:57AM WORLD NEWS: "Asian Nations Unveil $120 Billion Liquidity Fund," A WSJ News Roundup, Wall Street Journal, 4 May 2009.
A situation of the big three (Japan, China, South Korea) coming together to help out the ASEAN members of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam--very much the Core aiding the Gap within Asia.
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 2:16AM AUTOS: "What the Nano Means to India: Tata's new care, the world's cheapest, is set to change the lives of the nation's middle class," by Mehul Srivastava, BusinessWeek, 11 May 2009.
Tata has way too many desirous customers than cars for now, so lotteries are conducted to determine who actually gets to buy a Nano this year.
People outside of India, we are told, have no idea what this breakthrough means for average people there: most were stuck for decades choosing between two crappy cars that cost too much or fourth-hand wrecks. Oh, and piling your family of seven on a motorcyle (something truly scary to watch).
No test drives for buyers, just for salesmen so they can understand how to pitch. After one got five-minutes behind the wheel, he was asked for his impression--as in, How did it make you feel?:
Amazing, like a rich man.
Think globalization is going away? Dream on.
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 2:15AM FEATURE: "Help Wanted: The U.S. has 3 million jobs going begging. Why that may not be good for the economy," by Peter Coy, BusinessWeek, 11 May 2009.
13 million unemployed and 3 million jobs unfilled, evidence of "serious mismatches between workers and employees."
Up goes education, accounting, health care and government and down goes construction, finance and retail.
Sunday, June 7, 2009 at 12:04PM + Carter Phipps of EnlightenNext used his Huffington Post column to link his audio interview with Tom, their latest print magazine with the interview (more on this Tuesday) and Afghanipakistan: The Ungovernable (from Esquire's 2007 State of the World).
+ Futures Group linked The Unflat World of Global Food Production.
+ League of Ordinary Gentlemen said about one of their podcast topics: 'our favourite foreign policy guru Thomas Barnett, why we love him and why when you love someone you have to set them free'.
+ New Wars talked about PNM, the Leviathan and SysAdmin.
+ David Axe mentioned the Gap and GP.
+ Patterns 'R' Us talked about the Core and recession.
+ The Hannibal Blog talked about the Leviathan and SysAdmin and embedded the TED video.
+ charbookguy linked Obama's speech: thumbs up.
+ Naval Open Source Intelligence linked Despite Rhetoric, Obama Still Following Cheney's Lead in Dictatorial Justice.
+ Razed By Wolves reprinted Uzbekistan: the next apartment over.
+ BrothersJudd Blog linked The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: How Obama's Cairo Rhetoric Could Really Unfold.
+ Rethinking Security linked GP.
+ The New Nixon linked Four Reasons North Korea Won't Stop Being a Pain in the World's Ass.
+ Stephen Pampinella talks about Tom and grand strategy.
+ Information Dissemination The adaptive capabilities of the Chinese Capitalist Party, as sung (lips firmly attached to ass) by Banyan, Chief Suck-Up Officer for the Economist.
+ And thanked Tom for his support contributing to two years of successful weblogging.
Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 3:44AM ARTICLE: Militant attacks strike eastern Uzbekistan, Jane's, 03 June 2009
When you indulge in your opponents' desire for a "central front," you do the region a favor by drawing in a lot of violent extremists. But when you spray that apartment, in hopes of killing and/or driving off the cockroaches, then the next apartments over are forced to deal with the flow (up to now, Pakistan, but here, Uzbekistan too).
Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 2:47AM POST: Taking the Bite Out of "Era of Persistent Conflict", by Paul McLeary, Ares, 6/2/2009
Nice post from Paul McLeary at Aviation Week on describing the era better.
The key bit from my favorite "monk" Mattis:
That's why a simple two-word phrase that the Joint Forces Command's Gen. James Mattis uttered yesterday is so important. During a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mattis chucked the old term and instead described an era of "persistent engagement" rather than "persistent conflict." In fact, putting the two side by side makes the latter sound even more tone-deaf than it already does, doesn't it?
Friday, June 5, 2009 at 3:34PM ANALYSIS: Using New Language, President Shows Understanding for Both Sides in Middle East, By Glenn Kessler and Jacqueline L. Salmon, Washington Post, June 5, 2009
Having heard it both live and in clips, I thought it was an excellent speech. Obama has such a clean and clear style of speaking at such moments--very accessible. A lot of the lines were bits you could feel yourself saying on the same subjects. Suffice it to say the man has good speechwriters and knows how to deliver.
I find a lot of the nitpicking analysis on the speech to be silly--it was a speech and not some full-blown doctrine!
As outreach, it was crisp and very open in tone--exactly what it should be. There was no point in announcing policy shifts at a moment like that and it's just not his style.
So I give it a thumbs up and say it accomplished what it was supposed to: make a connection to ordinary people looking for reasons not to indulge in or support violent extremism or religious hatred.
Friday, June 5, 2009 at 3:38AM IN THE ARENA: "Gates Unbound: How the Defense Secretary helped turn Iraq around, shook up the Pentagon and won over Obama," by Joe Klein, Time, 8 June 2009.
Klein is a bit notorious for falling in love with profiled subjects (look who's talking!), but that allows him to peer deeply and record correctly.
Here's a bit that exactly mirrors the response to FP.com (pretty sure, from memory--maybe it was the WSJ?) when Gates was selected by Bush back in 2006. What I said then was something to the effect: everything you need to know about how Gates will handle Iraq can be found by asking him the following question, "How do you feel about China as a threat?"
I said, if Gates says "China is the threat," then you can forget about him being a useful change agent on Iraq, COIN, etc. But if he offers a sensible take, then the promise of real change is there.
Here's the Klein bit:
"If you ever get a chance to interview Donald Rumsfeld," a retired four-star general told me in 2005 [bet it was Keane], "ask him two questions and see which one lights up his eyes. Ask him what our force posture should be toward China 10 years from now. And then ask him what tactical changes we should make on the ground in Iraq as a result of the last three months of combat. I'll be you anything, he gets more excited about China."
And that was the problem. The Cheney-Rumsfeld axis, which essentially ran nation-security policy in the first half of the Bush administration, was stuck in the Cold War.
That meant, when the going got tough in Iraq, the problem became, in Klein's cool phrase, a "bureaucratic orphan."
Damn straight.
As soon as Gates takes over he summons Petraeus ("no favorite of Rumsfeld's") from Leavenworth . . .
I believe I had dubbed him a "monk of war" . . .
Still, Rummy put Petraeus in Leavenworth, and Mattis in Quantico, and Wallace in Leavenworth and then TRADOC . . .
Here's the bit no one wants to hear in retrospect: Rumsfeld made Gates possible--in ways both good and bad.
