Real estate bubble is global, emphasizing globalization's profound connectivity

■"Stocks? How Boring. If you want to get people really excited these days, just say the two magic words: real estate," by George Anders, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. R7.

■"Real Estate, the Global Obsession," by Steve Lohr, New York Times, 12 June 2005, p. WK1.

■"Hot Towns," table, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. R3.

We have reached the point in the real estate bubble when everyone seems to be piling on. An unusual percentage of purchases (20-25%, by some estimates) nowadays are by people who have no intention of living on the premisesómeaning either landlords or pure speculators. I am happy to be leaving the East Coast under these insane circumstances for the more reasonable Indy, where price rises occur, but not in double digits. Newport is #9 in the country for absurdly rising prices, and Portsmouth is caught in that same grip of rich people from both Boston (north) and New York (south) buying second homes in our area (more and more houses in our neighborhood are lit up only on weekends).

But this real estate boom is larger than America, reflecting the connectivity of a mobile elite whose second and third homes span continents. Interest rates around the world are increasingly linked, the WSJ tells us, so what goes up together must come down together. Most financial panics with global reach begin with some obvious pattern of over-building, like the Asian Flu of 97-98, so who's to say over-pricing of houses can't do the same trick?

Still, others say what's really driving this is the aging demographics in the Old Core. We get older, and wealthier, so more pressure on home prices becauseóquite simplyómore people can afford more. We are building a house in Indiana, for example, I could only dream about when I started my career.

But I will tell you, the scariest data I've come across in these articles is the "what does one million dollars buy you around the world." Here are the square footage totals for some big cities: London at 841, Dublin at 1152, Barcelona at 1238, San Francisco at 1414, Hong Kong at 1520 and Paris at 1182.

We're renting our three-bedroom apartment in Indiana (1250 square feet) at $1,100 per month. I think I could buy the entire apartment building for less than one million.

China's literate peasants are revolting? For what exactly?

■"For Chinese, Peasant Revolt is Rare Victory: Farmers Beat Back Police In Battle Over Pollution," by Edward Cody, Washington Post, 13 June 2005, p. A1.

■"China Is Said To Consider $15 Billion Bailout of Stock Market," by David Barboza, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. C2.

■"China's Haier Looks at Maytag As Possible Target for a Takeover," by Richard Gibson, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. C4.

■"Travel Industry Targets China: Global Tour Operators Revamp to Lure Growing Middle-Class," by Kristine M. Crane and Alex Ortolani, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. A12.

One of my all-time favorite Mel Brooks' lines comes from his most underrated film, "The History of the World, Part. 1" Harvey Korman's Count de Money says to King Louis of France, "Your highness, the peasants are revolting." To which Louis answers, "You said it. They stink on ice!"

First piece is interesting recounting of peasants fighting the establishment and growth of a highly polluting industrial park. After petitioning right up to the Premier, they started a tent community of protesters at the park, filling its ranks with old retirees they hoped the policy would be reticient to treat roughly.

But of course the cops cracked heads just like always.

Reading this story is like reading about labor unions' strikes in America in the early years of the 20th century. My Mom would tell me the story of striking milk farmers during the Great Depression meeting with my grandfather, their lawyer, in his basement while the cops were looking for them all over town. My grandpa would send my Mom to the door to lie to the cops, telling them that no one was home. We forget this sort of cops-cracking-skulls labor history, but we had loads of it.

It's happening all over China, and Bob Kaplan's "literate peasants" are proving to be less of a superpower threat to America than a major thorn in the side of China's political leadership as they try to keep the economic juggernaut rolling. Thousands of protests and acts of violence are said to occur across China each year, and the biggest drivers are land grabs and resulting pollution.

Here's my prediction: China will becdome a global leader in pollution controls and abatement within a generation, and the leadership won't do it because it's nice but because they consider essential to their survival as a political elite.

When the commies start multibillion dollar bailouts of stock markets, you know they'll do anything to survive, ideology be damned. China needs a healthy capital market, as one expert put it, but it also needs a healthy environment. Peasants, especially those literate ones, are ready and willing to riot over either point.

China, as always, runs a far bigger race with itself than with the United States or any other imagined opponents. It's running a race to morph as much of that literate peasantry into an urban middle class as quickly as possible. It'll need a whole lot of everything to pull that off, so don't look at a Chinese buyout of Maytag as an assault on an American economic icon, but rather as the desperate reach of a national industry working its ass off to provide for that emerging class's needs across the boards.

Still, factor in the environmental requirements of all those washers, and you wonder if China won't pioneer the waterless system of cleaning clothes that many leading experts are touting as a practical way to shrink the Gap (and remove unwanted wrinkles) without too much environmental cost.

Finally, that growing middle class is increasingly attracting the attention of the global tourism industry, with predictions floating the possibility of 100 million Chinese tourists reaching foreign shores each year by 2020. On average (for now), they tend to spend about 1000 Euros per trip, and they favor luxury items and shoes most of all.

Geez, come to think of it, when Vonne and I were in China last year meeting baby Vonne Mei, we bought mostly luxury items and shoes!

Unless you consider bone carvings and cross-stitching with human hair to be essentials . .

The UN: What's it good for?

■"A Report By U.S., Criticizing U.N., Urges Reforms: Changes 'Must Be Real'; Congress Task Force Calls for Rapid Use of Power to Prevent Genocide," by Warren Hoge, New York Times, 13 June 2005, p. A1.

■"U.S. Remains Vague About U.N. Goals: Battle Over Bush's Bolton Nomination Masks Administration's Caution on Overhaul," by Yochi J. Dreazen, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. A4.

First article previewed today's release of a congressionally-mandated panel report on how to fix the UN. Newt Gingrich, who's on every such panel, and George Mitchell, who's also on every such panel, were co-chairs (I think they co-chair every panel and commission in existence today, do they not?).

Report is 174 pages, and I bet it's thrilling stuff (no, we just write forensic thrillers after terrorist attacks, I forget).

It's big push is for UN to pull some rapid reaction force out of its rear end and make it able to leap national boundaries in a single leap, preventing genocide before it occurs.

Oooh! I see that one coming in a matter of weeks, once this baby hits the streets!

Notice how the U.S. is always asking other entities to come up with these "rapid reaction" forces that will do jobs we detest?

Good luck with that, I say.

On the second story, it's interesting that the U.S. favors Japan getting a UN Security Council permanent seat but not Germany. I mean, Germany comes totally clean on all its sins of WWII (the reason why it's not on), whereas Japan continues to whitewash its own far too much. Hmmm. Wonder if Germany's opposition to the Iraq War has anything to do with this, as in "forgive Russia, ignore Germany, punish France."

Gas: It's the other hydrocarbon

■"Demand for Natural Gas Brings Big Import Plans, and Objections: Push for New U.S. Terminals Stirs Safety Worry," by Simon Romero, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A1.

■"As Mexico's Oil Giant Struggles, Its Laws Block Foreign Help: Born in Nationalist Fervor, Pemex Faces Drying Wells; CEO Wants to Open Doors; Gasoline Imports From Texas," by David Luchnow, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. A1.

Opening sentence says it all:

Just as the 19th century was shaped by coal and the 20th century by oil, people in the energy industry say, this century will belong to natural gas.

The U.S. is shifting from self-sufficiency on gas to rapidly rising dependence on imports, just like it did on oil decades ago. Realizing it will be the demand center for an emerging global market for natural gas, the U.S. is trying to shape that market to its ends as much as possible. The role for the federal government? Figuring out how to move from 4 current importing port facilities to something like 40 or more, each costing from one-half to a billion to construct.

Natural gas overtakes coal in terms of global consumption around 2025. Right now the equivalent of a barrel of oil in natural gas goes for about half that barrel's price of $50, plus known reserves currently project out farther than oil (67 years to 41), and that's not counting the notion that gas exists in vast quantities besides those known reserves that are co-located with oil (so-called "associated gas" that typically rides on top of oil pools).

The U.S. imports about 2% of its gas now, but expects to import 20% within a decade. There is the usual NIMBY stuff, and complaints from environmentalists to try alternatives, plus the added specter of terrorist dangers (mostly imagined) since 9/11.

This will be one interesting struggle to watch, almost as interesting as watching Mexico get over its absurd nationalism on the subject of Pemex, it's national oil company known for lotsa corruption and setting up its own mini-welfare state. One big cow, but never enough teets to satisfy everyone who wants to be fed. Pemex is a testimonial to the disutility and waste associated with having a national government run an oil company. Mexico already imports gasoline from the U.S. and will become a net importer of oil, despite being the world's #3 producer today, within 10 years unless it changes its idiotic constitution that bars foreign investment.

Still, a crisis of this sort (purely political) would probably be a good thing for Mexico. Instead of relying on wealth in the ground, it might be pushed to developed its human capital more. Either way, something will give and soon enough. On a subject this testy, a decade can blow by very quickly.

Amazing how two smart advanced states can damage their economic futures with such self-inflicted political wounds. It's this sort of "wisdom" and "leadership" that got us a Great Depression once upon a time.

God's eye view or ground eye's view?

■"Panel Seeks to Shift Spy Money From Satellites to Agents: A report stirs a budget debate with huge stakes for companies," by Scott Shane, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A17.

■"Bush Aides Report 'Increasing Doubts' North Korea Will Give Up Nuclear Arms Program: Negotiators see little hope of serious talks with Pyongyang," by Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A10.

The House Intelligence Committee just released a report that dared to suggest that less money should be spent on spy satellites (a huge portion of the overall community budget) and more on actual spies. Satellites are oh-so-Core, whereas spies on the ground are oh-so-Gap. You want to spot the missile silo, then fire up the satellite, but if you want to finger the rising terrorist leader, you better get down and dirty with the locals.

The emerging fight between the Leviathan's Big War crowd in the Pentagon (centered in the Air Force with it's space dreams and the Navy with its hopes to retain subs and carriers) and the SysAdmin's Small War crowd (Marines and Army, natch) is being replicated in the Intelligence Community. The bifurcation of the U.S. military is spreading to the Intell Community. Of course, the split was always there with that community, it's just coming down to bucks now that we have to choose somewhat between Leviathan and SysAdmin. Can't have it all. Can't prioritize al Qaeda and failed states AND keep China as enemy #1. You gotta choose, Mr. President. Ditto for the VP. You can't afford it all with the skyrocketing budget deficits and an aging population.

North Korea may well be our next big test, and here's my prediction: war will go much easier than expected and the nation-rebuilding much harder. To get the latter more right next time, we need more spies, not more satellites.

Guess which Democrat emerges as the voice of "reason" on this subject? Guess who defends the satellite community most vociferously. Why the nice congresswoman Jane Harman, who brags that her southern California district is "the intelligence satellite capital of the universe." Like members of Congress protecting their district's economic interests, I'm sure she's a super-whiz expert on all security matters that involve satellites. As always, they'll protest that no one wants a more efficient military than theyójust find those efficiencies in somebody else's district. Anything less would be "rash and irresponsible"

Yeah, to their chances for re-election.

On elder affairs, Japan sets the pace

■"Fast-Aging Japan Keeps Its Elders On the Job Longer: Threat to Economic Growth Spurs Incentives, Laws; Trend Other Nations Face; 'I Want to Work Till I'm 80,'" by Sebastian Moffett, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. A1.

The Japanese response to their demographic aging is always worth noting, not just because they're furthest along in this process, but because they'll be both the most stubborn about it (trying to "go it alone" far too much out of fear of immigration) and the most innovative (trying to technologize the problem away with robots (I can just see the scene from "Pokemon 2025": "Colostomi, empty my bag!" cried the infirmed Pokemon master Ash after a long day of too much eating; "Colo! Colo!" cried the tiny monster happily).

In some of the earliest versions of my current brief (back when it was built off the NewRuleSets.Project I conducted with Cantor Fitzgerald atop WTC1, I used to do a couple of extra slides on the "people flow" that included data on what it would take for Europe, the U.S. and Japan to maintain their Personal Support Ratios (PSRs, or number of working age to retirees) as their populations aged. And if you tried to do it through immigation alone, the numbers were staggering, as in letting in millions of people each year.

Of course, that would never happen, nor should it, because rising technology means fewer workers CAN support more retirees, although that's a long-term trend that can't exactly be sped up at the drop of a hatóor an elder.

Typically, most experts predict that a combination of solutions will be required: more productivity, more immigration, and longer careers. As soon as I saw the numbers, I said to myself, I'm going to do exactly what my Dad did and work til I'm 80 or so.

You want to see what some call the "geezer economy," you go to Florida and see the amazing number of elders in the work force (same with Arizona), as these "retirees" simply fill in the gaps across the service industry, taking on jobs that elsewhere tend to go to relatively young workers.

Well, Japan is moving in this direction big timeócall it "elder sourcing."

Story came with neat chart on when states hit what Pete Peterson calls the "Florida mark" of having 20% or more of your population over 65. Japan hits it next year! Then again, so does Italy. Germany next at 2009, then France at 2018.

But here's the interesting bit, and it's yet another example of what I mean when I say that China and the United States have more in common than they realize: both will hit the mark in 2036, the year I turn 74 (only six more years to retirement!).

More interesting, the chart provides the year in which each state hits the 10% mark, and China has the shortest gap between the two marks of 10% and 20%: 19 years (2017-2036). Italy comes next at 20 years (1986-2006), then Japan at 21 years (1985-2006), then Germany at 57 years (1952-2009), then the U.S. at 64 years (1972-2036), and France at 75 years (1943-2018).

This is proof positive of the prediction made by demographers that China will age more rapidly than any state in human history.

Homeland insecurities

■"Homeland Security Wrestles With Revamp: Big Changes Appear on Hold as Chertoff Tries to Trim Bureaucracy, Mold Counterterror Force," by Robert Block, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. A4.

DHS is, like, less than five years old and already it needs to be revamped. Don't you just love it?

One-hundred-and-eighty-thousand workers and counting, and it's arguable that DHS's creation has done nothing whatsoever to improve our national security against terrorist attacks. You can say, "But none have happened since 9/11," but I'll reply, "That's because we took the offensive overseas and now have created new, distant centers of gravity for that fight."

You can tell how meaningless DHS is by how mired it is in its own bureaucratic turf wars, not to mention that it "lacks a structure for strategic thinking and policy making," according to a joint Heritage Foundation and Center for Strategic and International Studies report that's credited with triggering the latest hot air about "rethinking" DHS.

My favorite proposal? DHS needs an "intell czar" to interface with the US Government's "intell czar," the newly created Director of National Intelligence. Yes, yes, another czar. When in doubt, create a czar!

Still standing . . .

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 14 June 2005

Third section of POD packed today, with most of the stuff wrapped for the truncated fourth section (smaller, because of the door). I pack that on Thursday and the company picks up the whole box on Friday.

Tomorrow I get to rest my bones on four commuter flights. A Brookings Institution affair for mid-level Defense Department officials. I will have to say hi to my favorite historical Thomas.

Many articles clipped, so I expect to stay busy.

Some progress, seemingly, on my second Esquire profile. The boys in the band want to speak with me directly to sort this out. I am back to being optimistic.

Today we did final home evaluation with social worker on Vonne Mei Ling Barnett. This was the last hurdle. We should get the paperwork about the time her U.S. passport arrives. . .

So a good day.

Newsletter archives through 14 June 2005

Available to download from The New Rule Sets Project archives:

June 13, 2005 File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: Email exchange from Ask Tom

June 6, 2005 File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: The New Map and the Enterprise ResilienceÔøΩ Response
~ Stephen DeAngelis, CEO, Enterra Solutions, LLC

May 30, 2005 File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: The question of hedging in the strategic environment
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

May 23, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words
~ Graphic Facilitation byPeter Durand

May 16, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: Kaplan's strategic lap dance for the U.S. Navy and Pacific Command
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

May 9, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: Why Benedict XVI was a big disappointment to me
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

May 2, 2005 Newsletter: File format: MS Word document

Feature: Gameplay for The New Map Game
~ David A. Jarvis, Vice President Strategy & Foresight, Alidade Incorporated

April 25, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: The Top-Ten List of Reasons Why I Hate "World War IV"
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

March 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF

Feature: The Asian Tsunamis as a System Perturbation
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

February, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF

Feature: The Pentagon's Internal War Over What Iraq Means
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

BTF Forum: China, the strategic threat

Andrew, Silpion, Sean Meade, Jeremy, and ultaviolette are discussing China, the strategic threat.

Have a look: http://bloggingthefuture.com/discuss/viewtopic.php?t=56.

Tom interrupts:

Geez! Just scanned. Fairly intense discussion.

I love to see that. China needs a lot of debate. And we need to get the Chinese themselves involved as much as possible.

Well done, everyone.

Officially bummed

Dateline: above the garage in Portsouth RI, 13 June 2005

Moving is a total pain. I just about freaked this morning when I realize I had 7 mirrored tops to dressers (all antique) that I had to pack up. Also felt a hernia coming on (at least I was convinced for a bit there). Plus it was another sweltering day.

And yet somehow the day unfolds, another section of the POD is filled to the ceiling and tied off (2 down, 2 to go, so I remain on schedule), and I end the day with all seven mirrored segments packed and well placed.

And I'm pretty sure I don't have a hernia.

Then, right at dinner, I got the call I've been waiting for, and the tone in the PR guy's voice told me it was bad news. My man, my dream profile, is not granting interviews this year beyond the league-mandated weeklies. Heavies from Sports Illustrated and ESPN have already lodged similar requests, and we're talking journalists he's known for years, and he's said no to them all. PR guy says I can submit officially with Esquire's senior management, but he's 99.9 percent sure it will be a no. Said he's saying this to everyone high and low, old and new. Just wants to focus on the game and spend time with his family.

Understandable, and yet I am sad. After nabbing Rumsfeld, figured I might as well shoot for the moon.

And yet it's a relief, and the news came on a good day. The enormity of moving hits you during the pack-up. The multitude of decisions and errands, then there's the lot purchase combined with the house building. Then I think of the actual move itself, adjusting to the apartment, being around my own family more, kids starting school, BFA coming out, and a very ambitious assignment from Esquire (still just in prelim talking stage) that could dominate the fall . . . and I'm sort of relieved. As much as I would have wanted it, I have so much to do the next two months, and then a serious biz opportunity in August, then hopefully this Esquire thing, then the book and then blam! We'll be into the new house sometime early next year. And then I need to start planning Vol. III . . ..

Still, to have caught just one pass!

Haven't even read the papers since Saturday. Four flights on Wednesday (don't ask), so I'll catch up on stories then.

Newsletter 13 June 2005 now posted

ÔøΩTomorrow's newsletter will be all Q&A. Did my best on these. Don't know everything. Wish I did. But I don't.ÔøΩ ~ Tom Barnett, The POD has landed

Download The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett - 13 June 2005 at:

PDF format

Word document

The POD has landed

Dateline: above the sold garage, 12 June 2005, Portsmouth RI

Yesterday at Special Operations Command/Central Command (SOCCENT) was fun. Breakfast with old CNA mentor Hank Gaffney, then my presentation. The AV guys had spent four hours getting all these screens to work in unison (actually had tiny antennae dishes on them for wireless hookup) and then I showed up saying I wanted to use my own laptop. They freaked, then saw it was a Mac and said I could try. It came up on all screens immediately with no problems. Glad I kept the S-Video cord with me, though, otherwise a goner.

I speak 70 and go 15 on questions. Two other speakers: one a survey specialist who spoke on "Why they hate America" and another a serious scholar of Islamic-inspired terrorism (like a Sageman or Roy). I had a great Cobb salad at lunch that a SOCCENT officer insisted on buying. Signed some books. Got a nice medallion. Then we three "scholars" (you can only guess how I love that term now) did a roundtable. Then I swapped out clothes, was driven to airport and flew home, finishing all my Ask Tom questions, which I will send off to my webmaster as soon as I post this. Tomorrow's newsletter will be all Q&A. Did my best on these. Don't know everything. Wish I did. But I don't.

Got home around 11pm last night and oldest two kids still up (making me realize how much older they are becoming). I work out on the treadmill, finishing the two-hour making-the-movie disk that comes with Alien (4 movie collection). Then we watched a Simpsons from the Season 4 collection my oldest boy talked my wife into buying (I do love that show).

Today has been all packing all the time. Basically breaking down the antique dressers (don't ask how many) and wrapping the main piece in about 10 layers of industrial-size saran wrap. Then hand-truck to POD and wrap in blanket and store. Got one section of 4 in this POD done by 3pm, and I roped it all off very intensely and then shoved in a lot of light plastic toy stuff to make it all very snug. Working second section now. Eldest son Kevin turning out to be quite the help. With the hand-truck we bought, I was even able to load the very heavy antique organ, which surprised me. I tell you, having that POD flat on the drive is something. No incline to go up into. My wife said watching the guy land this baby was something to see. Really amazing technique.

I will be wrapping big mirror tops to dressers all night long. Good news: great workout and you eat less, so you tend to look pretty good after it's all said and done. Amazing to carry down heavy pieces with my two oldest on other end. When we moved in they were good for nothing, and now they're helping immensely.

Made contact Friday with the sports team's PR department regarding the player I want to profile. Naturally, man of his stature has one PR guy who pretty much handles only him. Awaiting his call. If I don't get by 2pm on Monday, I start pinging up the chain again. So far, they seem quite friendly on the subject.

Back to the POD mine.

Signposts - Sunday, June 12, 2005

Signposts - Sunday, June 12, 2005 is now available via email autoresponse. To receive html format Signposts, send an email to get.signposts@thomaspmbarnett.com. The current edition will then be sent to you.

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Barnett set to pitch Enterra against Big Blue

Dateline: virtual training camp, Saturday, June 11, 2005

On their April 25, 2005 post "The Evolution of Business Resilience - IBM Enters the Fray," Mapping Strategy writes:

My colleagues and I have watched, (from the ringside seats of an amazing client engagement in the financial services industry), as 9-11 spawned a growing awareness - bordering on horror - among executives and boards that disaster recovery planning had received little serious attention during the go-go late '90's. The impact of that sudden realization has stretched well beyond New York, and well beyond the financial community.

One of the early teams -- IBM -- will field "Resilience program assessment."

However, Enterra Solutions recently signed Tom Barnett of The New Rule Sets Project, which -- in this writer's humble opinion -- gives Enterra competitive advantage in the newly created Enterprise Resilience Management league.

Welcome to The Show :-)

American Defense Policy, 8th edition, first PNM appearance

Dateline: SOCCENTís 24/hr business center, Hyatt, Tampa FL, 10 June 2005

Today was short day of mowing lawn and catching up on banking. Plus reviewing and signing our construction contract with our builder so we can close on the lot and get the process rolling.

In mail today I received a complimentary copy of American Defense Policy (8th ed.), from Johns Hopkins. Edited by three academics, it contains a host of articles from across the academic and think tank worlds. Roughly 50 in number, the book includes pieces from (names I recognize): Reinhold Niebuhr, Michael Walzer, Minxin Pei, John Lewis Gaddis, Sam Tangredi, Kurt Campbell, Roger Barnett, the U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st century, Stu Johnson, Andrew Krepenevich, Richard Kugler, Hans Binnendijk, Bob Art, Barry Posen, Eliot Cohen, Peter Feaver, Tony Cordesman, Clark Murdock, Steve Biddle, Karl Mueller, Bruce Hoffman and . . . me.

It was weird. When I opened the book I was completely in the dark as to whether or not I was in the compendium. So pretty exciting to scan the table of contents, feeling so in the dark and yet so anticipatory. Sure beats scanning for a mere footnote. No memory whatsoever of saying yes. Certainly got no money. Still, I guess you cite the prestige. I mean, it's probably the only article in the book that will get read less in that version than it did in its original publication.

My piece barely stretches over 4 pages, whereas plenty of the articles drag on for a whole lot more. But they took out my headers, Mark Warren's intro, the country-by-country run-down andóof courseóthe map itself (cheap academic bastards probably unwilling to pay; not that they won't charge students plenty on this textbook).

I am certain I'm the only Esquire article in the piece, probably the first one the mag has ever gotten in the series. The book will get used a lot in college classrooms, so the more students are exposed to PNM, I guess I get my payoff in book sales.

Plus, writing for Esquire is like having Leigh Bureau for my speaking agency: I'm unique in that context: grand strategy for the masses.

Heading down to Florida yet again today for Special Operations Command conference that brings together SOF seniors from all over the world (meaning a host of foreign SOF leaders). Should be an interesting crowd to briefólike SOCOM on steroids! Actually, I'm speaking tomorrow at a one-day follow-on symposium put on by SOCCENT, or the Special Operations Command of Central Command. If follows immediately the 4-day SOCOM "SOF Week" conference held here Tuesday through Friday (Tom Friedman spoke on Wed, Cheney this afternoon).

Plus, Hank Gaffney will be there, so I'm taking him a map. Dog Bailey ate a couple today when he snuck above the garage, so I'm down to my last one now that I let Vonne give her hairdresser one (signed), along with one of my remaining paperbacks.

Posting this from SOCCENTís biz center here at hotel to save on the Internet charge to my room. Just missed the tropical storm coming in today (bit rough landing in winds), and hopefully will easily steer around it tomorrow on return.

Here's the daily catch:

■ The Big Bang was never about making America saferóexcept in the long run

■ China and America: more alike economically than you think

■ Africa: forgiving debt is nice, administering the security system is better

■ The Washington Post's op-ed page: the good, the bad and the really boring

■ What's right with this picture?

The Big Bang was never about making America saferóexcept in the long run

■"Poll Finds Dimmer View of Iraq War: 52% Say U.S. Has Not Become Safer," by Dana Milbank and Claudia Deane, Washington Post, 8 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Assault on Women at Protest Stirs Anger, Not Fear, in Egypt," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 10 June 2005, p. A1.

This is the backlash you get when you see a basic police action (arrest the offender) sold as a us-versus-them war. It was never us versus them in Iraq, but the global community versus a mass-murdering tyrant. How we got rid of him is less important than how we improve the Core's processóbased on the experience we regain in Iraqófor removing from power political tyrants in the Gap and rehabbing their country systematically.

There are a host of powerful political movements for reform that have sprung up in the region thanks to the Big Bang. The key choices we make today are all about how we keep that ball rolling and disarming any potential veto-wielding players in the gameólike Iran.

Africa: forgiving debt is nice, administering the security system is better

■"U.S. And Britain Agree On Relief To Poor Nations: Writing Off $16.7 Billion; Plan to Release 18 Nations From Obligations Gives Blair a Timely Lift," by Elizabeth Becker and Richard W. Stevenson, New York Times, 10 June 2005, p. A1.

■"As Africans Join Iraqi Insurgency, U.S. Counters With Military Training in Their Lands," by Eric Schmitt, New York Times, 10 June 2005, p. A10.

This posting is essentially a redux of one I just did: great for Old Core to plus up its economic aid to Africa, but unless it does the same or better on security help it all adds up to nothing.

Same noble intentions cited in the aid piece (all worthy), but Schmitt's piece is a lot more informative: citing Africa as the strategic rear of the Middle East-centric global Salafi jihadist movement. I've been briefing the "tactical seam" between Central Command in the Middle East and European Command's ownership of most of Africa (Centcom owns the Horn) for roughly a year now. It's a bit I developed while sitting down with Centcom's policy planners last summer at MacDill in Tampa (where I'm heading now). So as that strategic rear gains importance, expect the U.S. to get involved in more and more military-to-military programs in Africa. What drives this process is the rising importance of African jihadists showing up and fighting in Iraq (roughly one out of every four we catch).

Naturally, after cutting their teeth in Iraq, these jihadists are ready to rumble on their home turf, a phenomenon we've seen already unfold in Saudi Arabia.

So our previously tiny expenditures on such military training in Africa have grown to surpasss $100 million a year.

Who does the bulk of this training? Right now it's Special Operations Forces.

This plus-up in military aid is described by one senior Bush official as "get[ting] ahead of the power curve."

Indeed. My basic premise still holds: succeed against the jihadists in the Middle East and you take that fight south over time. You want to get the Pentagon to Africa fastest, cheer on the Big Bang and the occupation in Iraq. Africa needs it to succeed even worse than we do.

China and America: more alike economically than you think

■"Do China And U.S. Face Same Woes?" by Floyd Norris, New York Times, 10 June 2005, p. C1.

■"China Weighs Modest Currency Change," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 10 June 2005, p. C4.

■"Getting Around Pyongyang's Hard-Liners," op-ed by Selig S. Harrison, Washington Post, 10 June 2005, p. A23.

Facinating piece by Norrris, comparing the plight of big corps on both sides (state-run on Chinese side, private on ours). Both types have taken on a lot of welfare functions for their employees over the years (China because it was socialist for so long, in America because employment with a major company was supposed to be rewarding in that way (lots of bene's, otherwise why put up with the bureaucracy?). When China cuts back on the state-run companies, abandoned workers are left without a host of support nets. Ditto here in the states, where healthcare and pensions seem to be going the way of the dinosaur with each passing year.

Bit of a Catch-22 brewing: our corps want relief from all their financial legacy woes and seek it through revaluation of the Chinese yuan, but that revaluation is resisted by China because it fears political unrest is too many state-run enterprises are sunk too fast by a rising yuan.

China will move to a floating yuan, something we talked about a lot roughly five years ago in the economic security exercises I ran atop the World Trade Center with Cantor Fitzgerald. But Beijing is smart enough not to create a giant do-loop with the yuan floating solely against the dollar (I don't think anyone in their right mind wants such a focused float, because what hurts America could hurt China could hurt America and so on).

So hopefully China's 9-man leadership group, known as the Standing Committee of the Party's Politburo, will make this move sooner as opposed to later, so we can seek real cooperation with Beijing on North Korea.

And yes, as Harrrison points out, I am aware that getting the Chinese to pressure Pyongyang pisses off the hard-liners there, due to past bad blood between the two. I just don't care if getting Beijing to go hard on Kim recalls 19th Century dynamics between the two. Simply put, nothing but Kim's downfall will bring any reformist element to the fore in North Korea. Harrison, with all his years of first-hand experience, still can't get off his appeasement shtick.

We should all be tired of being reasonable with Pyongyang. And I've got a good 3 million reasons why.

The Washington Post's op-ed page: the good, the bad and the really boring

■"'We Need to Accelerate,'" column by David Ignatius, Washington Post, 8 June 2005, p. A21.

■"Amnesty's Amnesia," op-ed by Anne Applebaum, Washington Post, 8 June 2005, p. A21.

■"The Right Path to Arab Democracy" op-ed by Madeleine Albright and Vin Weber, Washington Post, 8 June 2005, p. A21.

■"Judging This Court" column by George F. Will, Washington Post, 8 June 2005, p. A21.

■"Candor on Immigration" column by Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post, 8 June 2005, p. A21.

Thinking back to my judging of the various levels of quality of op-ed pages in general (WSJ strong, Post pretty strong, Times getting weaker), the 8 June edition of the Post reminds me of that paper's continuing strengths relative to the Times, whichóquite franklyóI was surprised to rank 3rd of the 3.

For your political/legal you've got George Will here, instead of the insufferably smug Maureen Dowd, whose unfunny humor (sophomoric is the word) makes it impossible for me to actually wade through one of her silly pieces.

For economics, you have Bob Samuelson, who actually informs, instead of Paul Krugman, who mostly just rants on Bush nowadays, to sad effect (for his reputation, that is).

For national security, there's David Ignatius versus . . . I guess Friedman, who's tourist stint there seems ended. Kristof's really the guy now on security.

For general self-righteousness, you've got Anne Applebaum, who's top flight, compared to Bob Herbert, who's bottom drawer in his sputtering rage.

[Applebaum's is especially good on Amnesty International's stunning tendency to compare Guatanamo to the Soviet gulag systemóa comparison so amazingly dumb in its skewing of historical weight as to defy reason).]

Where the Post tends to lose is in the quality of the guest columnist (where WSJ rules). Here we have Madeleine Albright (who somehow manages to write just as boringly as she speaks) and Vin Weber (not exactly your towering intellect). In their supremely dull piece, they tout their Council on Foreign Relations study, highlighting its main findings (wonderfully obvious, they manage to say almost nothing new, which seems to be a prerequisite for CFR writing, which is so careful never to offend, you basically have only Sam Huntington's "clash" article as a seemingly controversial piece during Foreign Affairs entire post-Cold War run). The Times, in contrast, seems to have as many or more Foreign Policy writers than Foreign Affairs types, and on that basis it clearly outperforms the Post.