SysAdmin work is tough on marriages

■"Soldiers' divorce rates up sharply: Separation, stress erodes marriages," by Gregg Zoroya, USA Today, 8 June 2005, p. 1A.

A 78% percent increase since 2003, the year we went into Iraq. What I heard today from officers at the Army War College is that the Army has truly just now accepted the reality of this expeditionary force that the Global War on Terrrorism has forced it to become. The kicker? Nothing drives it home like the second tour in Iraq.

Problem is, probably nothing breaks up marriages better than the second tour in Iraq.

Last time we had guys and gals doing a second term in a combat-zone theater? Vietnam, of course.

The officers suffer the divorces worst, but that only makes sense given the time of life (it's when most occur anyway).

My two nephews heading over to Iraq with WI National Guard units: younger is unmarried and older (my godson) just married but no kids. I think Jonathan's marriage will stay strong, because he's a fine man and his wife seems very steady. I focus my prayers on his staying safe, but since he's likely to do port security whereas Michael is likely to do convoy security, I pray a little harder for Mike. Both are excellent men who were raised amazingly well.

Newsletter archives through 6 June 2005

Available to download from The New Rule Sets Project archives:

June 6, 2005 File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: The New Map and the Enterprise ResilienceÔøΩ Response
~ Stephen DeAngelis, CEO, Enterra Solutions, LLC

May 30, 2005 File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: The question of hedging in the strategic environment
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

May 23, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: A Picture Worth a Thousand Words
~ Graphic Facilitation byPeter Durand

May 16, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: Kaplan's strategic lap dance for the U.S. Navy and Pacific Command
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

May 9, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: Why Benedict XVI was a big disappointment to me
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

May 2, 2005 Newsletter: File format: MS Word document

Feature: Gameplay for The New Map Game
~ David A. Jarvis, Vice President Strategy & Foresight, Alidade Incorporated

April 25, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF | MS Word document

Feature: The Top-Ten List of Reasons Why I Hate "World War IV"
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

March 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF

Feature: The Asian Tsunamis as a System Perturbation
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

February, 2005 Newsletter: File format: PDF

Feature: The Pentagon's Internal War Over What Iraq Means
~ Thomas P.M. Barnett

Getting the message(s) out

Dateline: Washington Hall, Army War College, Carlisle, PA., 7 June 2005

Today drove to non-descript location in Northern Virginia wrapping up F2F interview with subject for next Esquire story. It's going to be very good or never published -- meets my standards or never sees the light of day.

Back to Carlisle now, spending night at Army War College quarters for Distinguished Visitors. Tomorrow I talk at Army War College annual academic symposium -- a mutually appreciative audience. Should be a another great exchange.

A day of good feelings

Dateline: a neverending SWA flight from PVD to BWI, 6 June 2005

Vonne and I start the day by getting youngest daughter from China her first American passport. Actually, just the official application process submitted, but pretty cool anyway. We have to travel off-island to MA to get it done, but it is nostalgic, because Vonne ran many of the official State Dept. docs through the town hall of little old Dartmouth MA.

After picking up the young man at preschool, I head to a local photographer and have a bunch of head shots done on digital. First set were butt ugly and really had me scared. I mean, in a couple I almost looked life-like! So I made him shoot a whole lot more (not exactly costly on digital). Despite being the old film guy using a digital, the man had an eye that had seen them all, so his guidance was invaluable on realizing which shots did the best job of really presenting me in the manner I wanted. These shots are to be used in BFA-the jacket cover (which I edited today for Neil Nyren at Putnam-they did a beautiful job), but logically will be used all over the dial in reviews, on the web, on Esquire's contributors page.

So I chose six we agreed were best, and I'm having a disk made up with four versions of each: low-res color, low-res B&W, and high-res versions of color and B&W. The former for Internet, the latter for print. Total cost? $103. I will miss this photo shop. Spouse has had loads of stuff done there over the years. Last time I went to a fancy portrait shop and it ended up too formal. This time, feeling more comfortable with these old friends, I got what I wanted.

Afternoon slips by in a stream of phonecons. Set up tomorrow's interviews with my next profile subject for Esquire. I spent a day with this guy way back when I was just starting my string of interviews for the big profile of a Bush cabinet official coming out in just a few days in the July issue. Left him high and dry for a while but now I'm back to finish what Mark Warren and I are convinced will be one very interesting personal story. When this piece goes in, it will be my fourth for the mag this year, assuming what I wrote on Sunday finds a home in a future issue, as the August issue's too far gone for this particular brainstorm. Two more in the works, one moving to negotiations and the other just in brainstorming range, but that would give me six for the first year, which would be pretty damn cool on top of the book.

Rather than get everything done I needed to get done, much less deal with the piling-up emails (and yeah, it's getting much harder to pretend that everyone's missive outranks bath time for the two little ones-as inevitably "rude and arrogant" as that makes me seem to some correspondents), I spend the time making sure I hear everyone's stories and play everyone's favorite little games (both real and mind) before dashing off to the airport for my many-hours odyssey that was flying down the Eastern seaboard tonight.

Hoping to hit the sack around 2am before having to get up NLT 0630 if I'm to keep my appointment. Tomorrow is likely to end well after midnight in yet another late-night drive. I am happy not to be feeling any older than 43 tonight, and am glad I got the workout in last night despite the late hours involved.

Here's the daily catch:

■ East Asia won't choose sides in any Sino-American rift

■ Energy requirements ARE the new Indian foreign policy

■ The military/market division of labor in shrinking the Gap: a bad thing or a good thing?

■ Russia welcomes FDI and oil output rises; Russia scares off FDI and oil output stagnates

■ Will someone tell my wife our kids don't need to be good at math?

East Asia won't choose sides in any Sino-American rift

■"Bush Shifts Focus Back to China: Beijing's Rising Power Again Makes It a Foreign-Policy Priority for U.S.," by Greg Jaffe and Jay Solomon,
Wall Street Journal, 3 June 2005, p. A4.

■"Rumsfeld Issues A Sharp Rebuke To China On Arms: Sees A Broad Risk To Asia; In Singapore Speech, He Urges More Trade and Political Freedoms," by Thom Shanker, New York Times, 4 June 2005, p. A1.

■"East Asia Fears Superpower Squeeze: China's Neighbors Are Wary of Washington-Beijing Rift, As U.S. Criticizes Mainland," by Jay Solomon and Barry Wain, Wall Street Journal, 6 June 2005, p. A9.

Donald Rumsfeld carries some Dick Cheney water to Singapore, sounding yet another Bush administration warning about "rising China."

He notes China's rising defense spending and asks, Who threatens China?

Well, the chief Chinese delegate asked the same thing about America.

If Rummy were to answer, "International terrorism!" couldn't China do the same?

China wants to be big in Asian security, so give it a venue to express that bigness, say I. Give them an East Asian NATO-and fast.

As I warned in Esquire in February: the price will only go up.

Energy requirements ARE the new Indian foreign policy

■"Hunger for Energy Transforms How India Operates: A growing need for power influences foreign policy," by Somini Sengupta, New York Times, 5 June 2005, p. A3.

I remember sitting down with an Exxon exec who told me Bangladesh was going to float away on a sea of natural gas before those stubborn people would ever let in Western investment. And, of course, it would never sell that gas to natural enemy India.

Just like India could never think to lay a pipeline from Iran through Pakistan . . .

Well, things change. So India wants to plus up its nuclear energy industry big time, and doesn't want any hassles from the U.S. on that score. And yeah, we've given them the business before. When I was in India in 2001, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was on the front page of all the papers, basically calling India a rogue state for its pursuit of nuclear power and it's intemperate relationships with like-minded states.

Well, things change for us too. Now we are willing to sell such technology to India, and when India signs a huge gas and oil deal with Iran, likewise demanding its international rights to develop nukes for "peaceful means," we better not expect the Indians to lean on Tehran or rein in that investment strategy.

Energy relations will remake South Asia and Central Asia in very profound ways in coming years, and those networked ties will extend into the Persian Gulf via Iran first and foremost. There is no preventing this, or Iran's growing role as a Gulf pillar. There is only coopting-or making sure you get what you want out of the process.

Don't expect India to piss in the wind on any of this, nor choose America over China. China-India energy cooperation will happen. It's not just some dream. As one Indian advocate points out, the EU started with just cooperation on coal between France and Germany.

So get used to it. India already has. "Mutual dependencies" is the new diplomatic buzzword in South Asia, where India rules and Iran is viewed as a little brother.

Again, get used to it.

Russia welcomes FDI and oil output rises; Russia scares off FDI and oil output stagnates

■"Russia Oil Output Is Showing Signs Of Leveling Off: Investment Decline Augurs Stagnating Production, Upward Pressure on Prices," by Bhushan Bahree and Gregory L. White, Wall Street Journal, 3 June 2005, p. A9.

Russia let in the foreign investors and oil companies in the early 1990s and production ramped up dramatically, absorbing in recent years almost half of the global oil demand spike led by India and China.

Then Putin goes after Yukos, and investors take the chill. Production stagnates and looks to settle into a long decline.

No, no, this is not some deterministic Hubbert's Curve effect. There is a lot of Russia still not well explored or well exploited.

This is the dead hand of the statist approach to economic development scaring off much-needed investors, and this trend will prove -- in spades -- Putin's ultimately limited ability to lead beyond reestablishing the authority of the center after too much had been lost. He's gone too far, and the big question is will Russia realize it by the 2008 election and choose a better path.

The upshot? Give the silovki (or power-types) enough time as rulers of Russia, and they will move it past the dreaded "oil curse" far faster than otherwise, forcing the society to develop, or perhaps just realize, their human capital potential sooner.

Paging Dr. Pink!

The military/market division of labor in shrinking the Gap: a bad thing or a good thing?

■"U.S. Challenged to Increase Aid to Africa," by Celia W. Dugger, New York Times, 5 June 2005, p. A8.

■"AIDS, Pregnancy and Poverty Trap Ever More African Girls," by Sharon LaFraniere, New York Times, 3 June 2005, p. A1.

The article describes a "powerful consensus" that is emerging among the world's heavyweight donors to buy into Jeffrey Sachs' quest to dramatically ramp up (basically double, in most cases) their amount of official developmental aid to Africa as part of the UN's big push to reduce poverty there by half in coming years.

The EU's 25 members seem on board, as does Japan, which has already taken the pledge. The Bush Administration is seen as the lone hold-out, and I don't necessarily disagree with their stance. Having interacted with people from State, USAID, and the Millennium Challenge Account on the subject, their doubts are the doubts of development experts everywhere regarding Sachs's latest version of "shock therapy": too much too fast with most of it likely to be wasted by governments in Africa yet unable to manage those flows and too often beset with internal strife. The U.S. is basically ready to ramp up, but not at the same pace.

Me, I am concerned that in all this aid talk, there's little talk about the huge amount of civil strife and generalized violence and associated corruption that is afflicting big chunks of Africa. Money alone can't solve these problems, and I worry that what ends up happening is a lot of triage that helps people, especially refugees, simply get by under such dire, violent circumstances, without any real associated push to deal with those violent circumstances.

In short, I see the market linkages (many of which start if very basic stuff like healthcare and education), but not the military ones (as recent reports have indicated, so many of the premature deaths in Africa result from conflict-driven migrations).

What's also interesting in the article is a share-percentage breakdown of U.S.-versus-EU-versus-Other donors of ODA (official developmental aid) over the past 45 years. Not surprising, in the early 60s, the U.S. alone provided roughly half, as Europe was just emerging from the shadow of WWII. Since the mid-1960s, coincidentally when the U.S. got involved in Vietnam, the U.S. share has slowly decline while the EU share has slowly increased, as has the other. Now the U.S. provides around 25%, the EU around 50% and the Others (led by Japan) providing the remaining 25%.

To me, there is a certain symmetry in these numbers, for you could say that the U.S. provides roughly 75% of the security aid (aid, training, crisis responses, major military interventions, and follow-on stabilization and reconstruction ops-aka nation-building) to the Gap, while the rest of the Old Core (EU + Japan + others) supplies around a quarter (reasonable ballpark guess). So if that's the rough breakdown in military aid, then it shouldn't surprise if the ratios are reversed in the market aid.

Wrong or right, fair or unfair, that's the way it has naturally emerged-this division of labor within the Old Core.

So if America weighs in primarily with the Leviathan and the rest of the Old Core primarily with the ODA, then what is the New Core logically good for? Me thinks a certain specialization in the SysAdmin.

I had my eyes opened on that score by The New Map Game and the strategies of the China team, treating, as they did, the SysAdmin role as a potential Gap-market-conquering strategy.

So must we fret if the Chinese "infiltrate" too much of sub-Saharan Africa and turn these backward societies toward something better?

Read the frightening and very depressing story on AIDS orphans in Africa and tell me America should ever be in the business of worrying about some New Core power paying "too much" attention to that continent.

Will someone tell my wife our kids don't need to be good at math?

■"A Race to the Top: The 35-hour work week vs. the 35-hour day," op-ed by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 3 June 2005, p. A27.

■"Pomp and Circumspect: 'Do what you love' is now practical career advice," op-ed by Daniel H. Pink, New York Times, 4 June 2005, p. A29.

Friedman's off the Grenocon shtick, or whatever that bit was about throwing loads of investment at non-oil alternatives to transportation, and now he's singularly pushing his book's main theme, which I -- as a blogger -- respect . . . in other bloggers, but really, he might use his NYT op-ed column with a bit more reach. I mean, there's no way Esquire would let me go "Core-Gap, Core-Gap" in every piece I wrote for them.

Still, it's a neat club, and Friedman wields it well, beating the French and their 35-hour-work-week mentality.

But his upshot misses the target, in many ways, just like his geo-green stuff. We won't go hydrogen on our own, but because Asia will forge the pathway out of sheer desperation for both its skyrocketing oil dependency and its nasty air pollution. Left to our own devices, we'd be fine on oil for quite a few decades. We'll change because we'll not want to be left behind technologically, and Asia's rising giants will pave that path.

On the "World is Flat" storyline, Friedman's selling a serious self-critique of the U.S. educational system, and while it's true that we aren't producing the same great generations of engineers and scientists that we once were, Friedman never seems to ask the question of whether or not that's the automatic bad thing he assumes it is. If America of the 20th century was so very different in its dominant skill sets from that of 19th century America, then why should 21st century America not similarly "move on"?

This is why I find Daniel Pink's notions of shifting from a left-brain (the number-crunching side) to a right-brain (the imaginative, storytelling side) so interesting. It's not just the follow-your-bliss notion that attracts, but something that speaks very directly to my own life: so long as I tried to be like every other military analyst and do the operations research-sort of thing, I never stood out. When I moved into the serious storytelling of grand strategy, I attained a global reach I never thought possible.

And that's not just a story of the Michael Jordan-phenomenon sort. Storytelling and personal care and designing and styling are about product differentiation in a world where the standard things can be automated and mass produced elsewhere at far lower costs. Do we race China and India down that path, or do we move beyond?

My kids are all inveterate storytellers, acting out each movie we watch (often, quite annoyingly in the theater like Jerry waving his light saber yesterday at Star Wars), singing songs like every meal is their personal caberet, and writing down their stories and mangas and comics and books and plays and every thought that pops into their heads like there's no tomorrow. My eldest Emily is designing elaborate manga-style comics with hugely intricate drawings and wonderfully fast-paced action. Her latest project is a full-blown parody of the movie "Moulin Rouge" using characters from her favorite Japanese vampire-hunter manga series. And yes, if you know the characters as I do after listening to her rambling on about them for hours at a time, it's awfully good.

Meanwhile, my wife worries incessantly about their science and math skills, which are just fine, but not at the tippy top of the class like their verbal/music/singing/storytelling/all-around-showboating skills, and it bugs her to no end. Me, I'm convinced none of these kids will ever go hungry, or without a lot of career opportunities. Vonne wants to have them read science and tech magazines, whereas I favor Variety and comic books.

We shall see which view holds more promise in the end, but I'm betting on Pink's optimism over Friedman's fretting.

June 6, 2005 Newsletter: Enterprise Resilience

The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett, Monday, June 6, 2005 is now available for download as a PDF and a Word doc.

Drawing by Chris Fuller

Created while listening to Stephen DeAngelis, CEO, Enterra Solutions, LLC speak about The New Map and the Enterprise ResilienceÔøΩ Response

With special thanks to Peter Durand's Graphic Services at Alphachimp Studio, Inc.

Something to get off my chest

Dateline: above the sold garage in Portsmouth RI, 5 June 2005

Yesterday lost to painting faces all day at my kids' annual spring fair. Pretty shakey hands after doing that non-stop for about five hours. A few full masks, including two on my two youngest, but mostly cheek art. Eldest daughter does balloon animals. We collectively cash in a lot of tickets at the fair. I donate a signed paperback and map which does a decent trade at the raffle table. After the fair we have dinner with friends at their house, probably the last time we'll get together before we move on. He's a close colleague I would like to someday soon bring into the business.

Friday night I get a quick email from Warren at Esquire challenging me to a short piece. The notion sticks in my head all day long Saturday while painting. Near the end of my fair duty, the notion blows up into a full argument, so I call Warren and tell him my spin. We agree I should give it a go today, if for no other reason than to get it off my chest.

So I get up today and write from 9am to 6pm, breaking just in time to take the kids to Star Wars III as payback for the slow day. My three oldest dress up for the show. My youngest boy insists on going as Obi Wan Kenobi, and he waves his light sabre during the movie whenever Obi fights, repeating his lines throughout the long movie. Fortunately, we sit way up front and the theater's fairly empty, so no one picks up his motion in the darkness.

It was a strangely fast weekend after a blistering week. Participants at last week's game wanted a private forum in which to keep the conversation going, so we built one for them. I sense all sorts of follow-up brewing on this one, given the "chatter" I'm monitoring among the network of people involved, but I'm not sure how much I'll get involved.

I didn't get anything really done on my endnotes compilation for BFA this week. Then again, it's not like I was ever asked to produce hard copies the first time around, so I'm not sure why I go to the effort of cataloguing everything like that. Still, I'm just old fashioned enough to want to do it.

Depending on how Warren views what I produced today, that piece might take up some time, but there's so little to give. I have a bunch of family/move errands to do tomorrow, then I'm back to another Esquire piece later in the day. Then I'm looking at a couple of quick jaunts for speeches in coming days. Then the first POD arrives in the driveway, kicking the packing sequence whether I want it or not. June is disappearing before my eyes and I still have to squeeze in the big edit of the unbound manuscript. July is vast moving wasteland, with minimal travel outside of the move. August beckons with its possibilities.

Man, I've got some calls to make tomorrow. I'll try to read the NYT Sunday paper before I conk out, but I have to get back to workouts too. Tipping the scales pretty heavy after all the fine dining at the game. Fun to eat a lobster again though.

The allergies are killing me right now. Really bad batch of late trees blooming because the spring here so delayed by cold weather.

And yet, exercise I will.

Wanted: a few good clones

Dateline: SWA flight from Orlando to Providence, 3 June 2005

After yesterday's wargame came to a close, I drove to the airport with former Harvard college roommate Geoff Schad, who played our Iranian "cultural ambassador" in The New Map Game, only to arrive at TF Green realizing I had left my briefcase bag back at the hotel. No Mac, no brief, and no check for speaking in FLA today. I was arriving just in time for the last flight down to Orlando, so money was on the line.

I was shocked and flabbergasted when I discovered my oversight. To my amazement, the one Green flight on delay that whole night was the SWA flight down to Orlandoóby two hours. Just enough time to drive back and make the plane down, although it meant I was driving well past midnight again in Florida (seems to be a theme with me lately).

Got to sleep around 2am this morning and set my alarm for 7am, so I could call my wife and check when I was speaking today. Turned out it was 1330, so I slept in until 1030, something I do about once every three years!

It felt great, and I gave a solid performance as a result. Had to go on right after a professional corporate conference comedian, but I got my usual laughs even as I delivered my usual stern warnings.

Had to drive back to Orlando in heavy downpour, and while waiting for plane to leave I had a good talk with Mark Warren, my boss at Esquire. I am set to go finish my interview of my anonymous national security subject for my next feature. Unlike my profile in the next issue, which will be out in a matter of days, this one will stay anonymous in the piece as well. Simultaneously, I begin my quest to do a profile on a major sports figure. Got the contact info for the team's PR office and his agent, and will make initial forays Monday. Targeting him for the start of the season, and yes, if I pull this one off, I'm going to pretend throughout that this is strictly business.

Beyond that, Mark and I discussed a couple of other pieces. One a quickie I may write, another an ambitious research/experimental project that the magazine would undertake with me lining up some serious outside help. I think of all these possibilities, plus the book, plus gearing up the partnership with Enterra and possibly another major entity later this month, and I do get a bit intimidated. Once the financial flow for NRSP proper gets taken care of, I will seriously consider getting some help directly for myself, either through NRSP's office or just on my own. I can't draft my wife on any of this stuff, because I can't pile these duties on top of the ones I already burden her with by my absences. I imagine losing my hair sometime near the end of our stay in the three-bedroom apartment, and finally giving in to this inevitability.

Here's the daily catch:

■ Non, non Babette!

■ Energy & money together determine the bulk of a country's connectivity

■ Would anyone really miss North Korea?

■ What's the matter with Iranian national pride?

■ Brazil: stuck in the not-so-fast lane

■ Zimbabwe's continuing descent

■ What the Arabs need now

Energy & money together determine the bulk of a country's connectivity

■"Bolivia Presents Energy Risk: Unsettled Business Climate Spurs Neighbors to Seek Fuel Alternatives," by Matt Moffett, Wall Street Journal, 31 May 2005, p. A14.

■"China and Japan To Keep Talking In Gas Dispute," by Matt Pottinger, Wall Street Journal, 1 June 2005, p. A18.

■"When Betting on Russia, Kremlin Is the Wild Card: The government plays kingmaker and investment foil," by Erin E. Arvedlund, New York Times, 2 June 2005, p. A1.

For Gap, New Core, and Old Core alike, some of the biggest questions surrounding economic connectivity have to do with energy. Behave well, and the necessary foreign investments flow. But behave badly, and you've got a lot of stuff in the ground that maybe you won't be able to move, much less sell.

Bolivia's investment climate sucks, and so its energy wealth goes untapped. Russia's government is behaving badly, and so global investors are rethinking their positions. China and Japan step back from their anger for a moment, and realize that maybeójust maybeóit makes more sense to pool their money and split the shared energy proceeds.

It was great to play The New Map Game so intimately around the subjects of people, money, energy and security. By not just playing a security game, ever player and every team saw a much bigger and more comprehensive board game, and the resulting play was one helluva lot more realistic as a result.

Non, non Babette!

■"A French 'No' Reminds Europe of Many Woes: Behind Constitution Vote Lies an Economic Malaise EU Leaders Haven't Cured," by Marc Champion, Dan Bilefsky and John Carregrou, Wall Street Journal, 2 June 2005, p. A1.

■"2 'No' Votes in Europe: The Anger Spreads; As Ruling Elites Falter, Union Suffers the Pain," by Richard Bernstein, New York Times, 2 June 2005, p. A1.

Several questions at The New Map Game and at my talk today to the Harris Corporation down in FLA about the recent "no" votes. A lot of queries about, "Doesn't this call into question Core unity?"

Two answers:

First, we have to remember that we began as a nation in revolution in 1776 and got our constitution in 1789ó13 years later. The American colonies were a helluva lot more incentivized to get their act together than safe and relatively rich Europe does today. The EU superstate project is really only about a dozen years old, so setbacks are to be expected, especially since this integration process occurs simultaneously with Europe's growing connectivity with the rest of the world through globalization, something that the relatively isolated American colonies didn't have to deal with much.

Second, my concept of growing the Core has far less to do with keeping "the West" strong than with "securing the East." In fact, that's the name of the third chapter of the book, "Growing the Core by securing the East." I'm not sure I mention the "West" at all in the book, except to discuss the notion of Occidentalism, or hatred of the West by non-Westerners within the context of the global Salafi jihadist movement represented by al Qaeda and others.

In my mind, if the U.S. wants Old Core Japan and Europe to come along for the ride of shrinking the Gap, the fastest route is by wooing Brazil, India, China and Russia, and letting the rest of the West take the hint.

Brazil: stuck in the not-so-fast lane

■"Effort to Reduce Poverty and Hunger in Brazil Falls Short of Its Goals," by Larry Rohter, New York Times, 29 May 2005, p. A8.

Brazil is a hybrid Core-Gap society, as are virtually all of the New Core states. What makes them New Core is primarily their ability to largely deal with their own Gap areas without much outside assistance, in part because of the wealth generated by their very Core-like areas that are moving up the production chain quite impressively. In the Old Core, these Gap-like areas are essentially pockets in a sea of middle-class-and-above-prosperity, but in New Core states like India, Brazil and China, you're talking big numbersótoo big to ignoreóin both realms. India, for example, has more millionaires than any country in the world, and several hundred million truly impoverished.

President Lula's Zero Hunger effort in Brazil is stalling. It's tempting to say it's all about funding, but the real story seems to be poor or inept government bodies both above and below. The water cisterns that are supposed to appear as part of the program often do not. Instead, a lot of new paperwork has been created whereby the poor are supposed to submit annual income statements. Likewise, the promised medical help has been slow in forthcoming, so in villages where young women have babies each year, there's no state help on contraceptives. All in all, if there seems to be a way to bog things down, the Brazilian governmentóboth federal and localómanage to achieve it.

What's the matter with Iranian national pride?

■"Across Iran, Nuclear Power Is a Matter of Pride," by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 29 May 2005, p. A1.

Here's the gist:

From nuclear negotiators to student dissidents, from bazaar merchants to turbaned mullahs, Iranians agree: the right to develop nuclear power is a point of national pride.

"For a country to have nuclear energy means that it has made progress in all other fields as well, so other countries have to respect its technology," said Nilufar, 29, a graduate student in energy management at the prestigious Sharif Industrial University.

We should want a proud Iranian people who are ever more demanding of national achievement, but all we get when we focus on the WMD fight with Tehran is a rallying point for the repressive regime. In this dialogue, the mullahs play us like a piano, with the upshot being that America makes no use of Iran's potential to become a regional security pillaróan outcome that must inevitably occur if real and lasting peace and stability is to come to the region, triggering its broadband economic connectivity to the global economy.

The Iran team in The New Map Game basically played this strategy, always trying to keep their eye on the prize of becoming the region's gateway to larger economic connectivity with the outside world. It didn't do very well, relying as it did so much on its oil exports to win it diplomatic points while remaining essentially intransigent on the nuke issue. Judging by this article, I would say we got some awfully realistic scenario play on Iran in our game.

Would anyone really miss North Korea?

■"North Korea's Counterfeit Goods: U.S. Seeks to Curb Illicit Business in Cigarettes, Drugs, Currency to Augment Diplomacy," by Jay Solomon and Gordon Fairclough, Wall Street Journal, 1 June 2005, p. A4.

■"Without Apology, Leaping Ahead in Cloning: 'I never destroy any life during my process,' Woo Suk Hwang says," by James Brooke, New York Times, 31 May 2005, p. D1.

North Korea used to earn as much as half a billion a year in missile sales to rogue nations, until the U.S. and others cracked down on that. But it still makes tons of money on counterfeit goods and illicit substances and fake money. Kim's basically the reason why my spouse and I carried so much uncirculated cash in our underwear during our adoption trip last year, and so the U.S. government imagines that if it can't get regional neighbors to realize how much all this smuggling and counterfeiting is costing them, those are just some more screws to be applied to the horrific Kim regime.

Meanwhile, South Korea races ahead inóI guessóanother form of counterfeitingóalbeit a far more technologically advanced one. If a South Korea can reach for such heights while a North Korea descends to such depths, I ask you: who would miss North Korea the state?

And if nobody would, why not just get rid of it any way we can? Put the people out of their misery, their stunted growth, their perpetual low nutrition and caloric intake, their lowering IQ, passed on from generation to generation.

North Korea is the international equivalent of the child whose horrific parents locked her in the closet for the last 15 years. I say it's time to do the humane thing. South Korea's too busy cloning themselves to give a rat's ass. If they have that many extra bodies around, I don't think we should sweat their possible losses in the take-down of Kim's regime, because at some point, the horror has to stop. At some point, you have to strike right into the heart of darkness, killing that mad little nutcase.

What the Arabs need now

■"What Arabs Really Think," from StrategyPage.com , www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/478-1975.asp, 29 May 2005, sent by reader Russ Steele.

Analysis offered from a recent survey of Arabs undertaken by Al Arabiya news network. Focus was on causality behind lack of economic progress in region. Eighty-one percent blamed it on the governments being unwilling to reform, 8 percent blamed the "ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict, 7 percent blamed society for failing to convince governments to change, and a whopping 4 percent blamed terrorism.

Another question focused on the fastest way to correct this situation. Here 67 percent said "ensuring the rule of law," 23 percent answered "freedom of speech," and a whopping ten percent said "resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict."

So what do we hear from our media and the region's media regarding the "problems" of the Middle East? What do we hear from a lot of activists and academics and experts? Fix terrorism and fix the Arab-Israeli conflict and there will be positive change.

Seems the Arab street is a whole lot smarter than we imagine it to be.

Zimbabwe's continuing descent

■"Zimbabwe Takes Harsh Steps in Major Cities to Counter Unrest," by Michael Wines, New York Times, 2 June 2005, p. A4.

If the end of the Mugabe regime isn't near, then we're witnessing the beginning of the end for a significant portion of Zimbabwe's people:

Facing rising unrest over a collapsing economy, Zimbabwe's authoritarian government has apparently adopted a scorched-earth policy toward potential enemies, detaining thousands of people, burning homes and street kiosks and routing large numbers of people from makeshift homes in major cities.

The numbers here are staggering, if true. Zimbabwe has only 10-11 million people, and some observers estimate over 1 million people have been displacedóperhaps as many as 1.5 million. As one source, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution put it: "I don't think anyone has any idea of the scaleóit's big."

Experts on the situation believe that Robert Mugabe's regime is effectively waging a preemptive war against his own people, before all the economic deprivation drives them to unrest. This is the classic African Big Man phenomenon at its worst: better that 1 and a half million should hit the streets, with some godawful percentage suffering premature death as a result, than Robert Mugabe's regime suffer any potential loss of power. It doesn't matter how many of his people will die, Mugabe must rule.

Tell me this isn't a politically bankrupt state that needs a regime change now. Tell me you would like to see an international system arise, populated by rich and powerful states with the military and financial resources necessary to remove the regime from power and begin rebuilding this shattered economy.

Or do we just sit back and watch several hundred thousand more deaths get added to the African Holocaust of the last ten years?

Get ready for your grandkids asking you someday "What did you do, Daddy, during the African Holocaust?" And yes, in our indifference and in its purposeful killing, it is exactly the moral equivalent of the Jewish Holocaust.

Then again, maybe a nice museum on the Mall 50 years from now will do the trick. I can't wait!

I was blown away

Dateline: Rialto Place Hilton, Melbourne FLA, 3 June 2005

Yesterday was a thrilling end to The New Map Game. Steve DeAngelis of Enterra Solutions and I jointly announced our strategic alliance over lunch and we played the last of the five turns that afternoon. Then we had the final plenary session, where the team captains of the four teams reviewed all five moves, standing in front of a wall of Alphachimp drawing boards behind each (Alphachimp must have done almost at least a dozen boards of my two talks (PNM, BFA, and this final one), plus a solid 6-8 for each team, which was way cool). I then ended the event with some wrap-up comments.

Fascinating play throughout, with the Chinese team taking first place, in my opinion, and showing how formidable China will be in coming decades--without a shot being fired in anger!

Alidade did a magnificent job, leaving me to just play guru and evening speaker and giver of interviews to the press. Press was active and involved across the dial, sitting in team rooms and typically hanging out in Control for our deliberations. The guys and gals that Alidade put together for Control and support and Alphachimp were routinely superb. Everyone was just so cool and confident, I and my partners felt like we were in great hands throughout, and so felt perfectly able to get out of the event what we wanted to achieve while delivering what the circumstances needed.

In short, everything went way beyond my expectations. Participants were gushing about two of the "most amazing days" they had ever spent in this sort of venue, I was signing books and maps like crazy, Game Master Dave Jarvis, a NASA alum, was getting kudos from all corners, and everyone was walking away from the event talking about the next one (probably Nov in DC) and all the other things this consortium might be able to do together.

In the end, I'm glad we started with about 40 players and a fairly loose approach to inserting jarring scenarios. This was the shake-out cruise and it served its purpose in spades. All of the partners in the process got to know and trust each other. We all got to know and trust the process (many ideas for improving the next one). Participants went away evangelists. We're going to get some very positive press. And we got enough people here at this proof of concept to pay all the bills and accomplish all that. This was exactly what I was hoping for and I can't believe we pulled it off with such a crucial and yet minor assist from me.

I say that because I've always been the guy who worked all the details and led the event at every moment in all the games I directed, whereas here I was the relaxed, chatty fellow on the side who was more than comfortable to watch a lot of supremely talented people do their thing, and every time it got scary or bogged down or gave off the hint of things falling apart (as it always does in games where live people will do what they want/must), Control would pull a rabbit out of its hat, in no small part thanks to the cool, experienced minds of Alidade CEO Jeff Cares, who impressed the hell out of me, and Dave Jarvis, who always pushed us to get everything we needed to get done just as we needed to do it.

The game was exactly what it should have been: a really cool party that stretched over two days and two nights, with fabulously stimulating conversation, neat entertainment, and work so fun that we had to almost slap people out of character (if I get called the Great Satan Barnett one more time . . .).

I left the island tingling with the sense of how many other venues this sort of event would be perfect for--both private and public, both US and overseas, both mil and civilian--at any age range you can name right down to junior high.

Between Enterra, Alidade, Alphachimp, and NRSP, we have a real package here that we can use to change the world, change a lot of minds, and have a blast intellectually doing it.

Can you believe we actually make a living having this much fun?

This was the war game I've always wanted to attend, and it was built off my vision and gave me the privilege to play Caesar throughout with thumbs-up or thumbs-down. I was like a kid in a candy shop, and judging by how many people pumped my arms on the way out the door, the participants felt the same way.

Again, I was blown away, and extremely grateful to all who were involved. The game proved to be the wonderful bonding experience I wanted it to be with my partners, Steff Hedenkemp and Critt Jarvis, who both put tons of effort into the game--Steff especially on the press and the Enterra deal.

I got one of those PODS arriving at the house soon enough, and when it does, it will signal in no uncertain terms the scary scenario I've just set in motion for my family: moving us all to Indy and building a house while not holding a steady regular job. But after this game, I am figuratively walking on air (made it all the way down to FLA, thank you very much), feeling very confident that--collectively--The New Rule Sets Project LLC will follow through on everything we've been dreaming about, thanks in great part to all the great partners we've already lined up.

My thanks to everyone connected to the game in any way. You have no idea how much this means to me after all these years of toiling in the vineyard.