Globalization favors the rule-keepers

■"Globalization: It's Not Just Wages; For Whirlpool, High-Cost Germany Can Still Have Advantages," by Louis Uchitelle, New York Times, 17 June 2005, p. C1.

The biggest exporter of German-made washers to America? the article asks. It's Whirlpool. Turns out that U.S. multinationals rent labor all over the world, and not just in China. Their "exports" to the U.S. account for more than 40 percent of America's imports from the world, giving a strange sort of lie to the notion that America's trade deficit is so huge and underlying just how dependent we really are on globalization.

Yes, U.S. companies go overseas for cheap labor, but they also go overseas for some of the world's most expensive and regulated labor as well. Whirlpool builds simpler stuff, like microwaves, in China, but the very complex front-loaders it builds in Germany. So it becomes a matter of build what makes sense wherever you want and sell it anywhere you want.

So Germany somehow survives in a highly competitive global marketplace where wages and prices aren't the only dynamics at work. Just like America does, where roughly half of the "foreign" cars are built here.

I want my MTV Desi!

■"I Want My Hyphenated-Identity MTV: Videos conquered America, and then the world. What's left? Something in between," by Deborah Sontag, New York Times, 19 June 2005, p. AR2.

MTV already has channels in India, South Korea and China. Now they'll have hybrid versions for second-generation Indians (MTV Desi), Koreans (MTV K) and Chinese (MTV Chi) here in the states. Hip hop and rap will figure prominently in all three channels. No surprise there, as it's become the current young generation's preferred cultural vehicle for expressing all the usual alienation and angst of growing up in the modern world. The big distinction here is the stylized content and the focus on the politics and sociology of identity. Make young people feel like they belong, no matter the niche, and they don't become angry, disassociated and desirous of change through violence. Instead, they find their own way and on that basis feel a lot of freedom, which-quite frankly-is far more about economics than it is politics.

Again, recalling my piece in the Baltimore Sun a while back regarding the ever-diversified face of globalization, this is yet another example of why no one will confuse globalization with Americanization in coming years.

To me this is also a clear indication of New Core status: when you're so inside the Core's main economy (the United States) that MTV gives your nationality its own hybrid channel.

What does "desi" stand for? One theory is "doctors earn significant incomes."

Move over Carson Daly, here comes Niharika Desai.

. . .

David Geoge, via Tom's webmaster, interrupts. . .

"Desi" is not an acronym. Itís a word that Indians use to refer to Indians. DEH ñ see. Like Lucyís ex husband. Why do I know? I work with Indians. One day we were talking about a new employee, an American born kid but ethnically Indian. They referred to him as ìABCDî. I asked what that meant. American Born Confused Desi was the answer. It refers to the disconnection that some ethnically Indian kids grow up with in the USótorn between the very conservative culture of their parents and the (ahem) MTV world around them here. Culture flows in both directions. MTV flows in, but conservative Indians are also moving here too, little islands of the old world plugged into the new one.

Tom responds: the "theory" explanation in the story was actually a joke made up by a first-generation Indian. They like to tweak the typically successfull second-gens

Connecting: Enterra Solutions and Oracle

A few weeks ago, The New Rule Sets Project announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Enterra Solutions. We've come together to advise corporations and government agencies about the dynamics of globalization, and what organizations can do to respond quickly, effectively and consistently to global stressors and opportunities



Enterraís part in the alliance ñ Enterprise Resilience Management -- is to make companies in critical infrastructure industries and governmental agencies resilient to systemic stressors. A business perturbation, these stressors come at us in the form of new security rules, new compliance rules, and new competitive rules.



Today Enterra joins the Oracle PartnerNetwork (OPN), thus enabling the Enterprise Resilience Management Solution, using a best-of-breed, standards-based business process management solution.

ìBest-of-breed, standards-based business process management solution.î

What kind of a future do you want to create?

A flat world of hamsters and elderberries

The Book Is Flatulent: A Brief Review of Thomas L. Friedman's

"The World Is Flat" Op-Ed

First off, I really wanted this book to be good, because Friedman's decline as a columnist has been painful to watchólike one of those Oprah episodes that are enjoyable only when they're done up as parody on Saturday Night Live. Friedman's like Billy Joel in his later years, almost so overdone that he makes you embarrassed for having championed him in previous years as the next best thing after sliced bread. If you've ever wondered what a Malcolm Gladwell book of just one concept would look like if it were blown up into 450-plus real pages instead of stretched, big print-like, across a mere couple of hundred pages, then this book is sad testimony to the notion of "be careful what you wish for."

Download here.

Newsletter 20 June 2005 now posted

The Book Is Flatulent: A Brief Review of Thomas L. Friedman's

"The World Is Flat" Op-Ed

Download The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett - 20 June 2005 at:

PDF format

Word document

Four more from Vermont

Dateline: Father's Day in Vermont, June 19, 2005

Captures from Tom's cellphone:

Signposts - Sunday, June 19, 2005

June 12, 2005 - June 18, 2005

from the blog of Thomas P.M. Barnett

www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog

Discussion at www.bloggingthefuture.com/discuss

Delivered via email, html format. If you'd like the current issue, send an email to get.signposts@thomaspmbarnett.com

Auto-response delivers the current issue to your Inbox.

Phone photos from Vermont

Dateline: non-disclosed yet very descript locations in Vermont (one's more very descript than the others), June 18, 2005

Captured from Tom's cellphone:

1,2,3... It's so elementary

Dateline: outside the garage in Portsmouth RI, 17 June 2005

PNM as summer reading!

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 17 June 2005

Heading out the door with family to milk some cows at dude farm in Vermont this weekend. For a kid from Wisconsin who worked some summers on a farm, this seems odd in the extreme, but my kids are psyched.

This is our mini-summer vacation, besides the move.

Got this Google alert via my webmaster Critt and wanted to post before I left. BusinessWeek puts out summer reading list piece and cites PNM as one to get!

Here's the citation:

Will wars make such concerns seem trivial? For a vision of how U.S. strategic policy is likely to evolve, take a look at The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century (Berkley, $16). Author Thomas P.M. Barnett, a strategic researcher at the U.S. Naval War College and "a savvy prognosticator," according to reviewer Stan Crock, says future conflicts will not simply involve Islam vs. the West, but will be contests between those nations tied to a global economy (the Functioning Core) and those that aren't (the Non-Integrating Gap). Trouble spots, not surprisingly, include much of Africa, the Balkans, parts of Asia, the Caribbean, as well as the Islamic crescent. Barnett proposes a three-pronged response, ranging from occasional "preemption" of threatening regimes to economic efforts to reduce poorer societies' "disconnectedness."

Find the full article at: www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_26/b3939125.htm

Damn it all to hell!

still above the garage, 16 June 2005

Getting all ready to write review of Friedman's World Is Flat for next newsletter, and after wading through the first 100 pages, I had my basic shtick in mind.

Then way-too-helpful reader sent me this link (http://nypress.com/18/16/news&columns/taibbi.cfm) and I realize someone has beaten me to the punch.

This review is fall-down funny and caustic at the same time, but so on target, based on my first 100 pages, that I'm tempted to skim the next 370 even faster. Still, I will have something to write. I promise.

Curses to Brian Foster!

And please, someone, remind me never to be reviewed by New York Press. Too scaaaary.

Our enemies, our solutions (part 1)

■"Magnet for Iraq Is Test for U.S. Strategy," by Richard A. Oppel, Jr., New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A1.\

■"Uncle Sam Really Wants You: Army recruiters invade the schools," op-ed by Bob Herbert, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A29.

■"Iran Said to Admit Tests on Path to Atom Arms: Agency Report Suggests Hiding of Attempt to Create Plutonium," by Richard Bernstein, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A12.

■"Not Our Man in Iran: Why do we want Rafsanjani back?," op-ed by Danielle Pletka, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A29.

The U.S. finds itself retaking cities again and again. The pattern of win the mini-war and lose the mini-peace is a microcosm of our entire experience there.

And it is wearing on the morale of the troops. And it is hurting recruiting. And it is costing the U.S. military more than it knows in public support.

There is an ally we need to create in the region and it's name is Iran. Like Nixon's Doctrine of decades before, we need to tap into a regional pillar whose interests, once the old hatreds are put aside, are amazingly similar to our own.

Iran gets the bomb. The strip tease we watch today means only that Tehran is signaling throughout this process. It is signaling the price.

Rafsanjani will not give up the bomb, but he will give up the revolution for a price. His price is worth paying. Lives will be spared. The Big Bang will gain speed. America will get its happy ending to this chapter in the Global War on Terror.

It is time to move on. It is time to turn enemies into solutions.

One POD down, two to go

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 16 June 2005

One month to go and most of the big furniture is wrapped tighter than a drum and packed tighter than sardines in that POD in the driveway. It returns to the mothership in Providence tomorrow morning. Another arrives at the end of my final substantive editing process on BFA at the end of the month. That one will get packed far less intensely: bunch of rougher items (this one was almost all the antique furniture) and boxes galore. POD three will be the supplies for our 6-month camping experience in an apartment.

I have survived the process and am very pleased with the results. When I first spied the POD in the driveway Saturday after getting back from CENTCOM's special ops symposium, I was quite fearful it wouldn't hold enough. It does look small from the outside, but those 4 by 4 by 8 feet high sections are great with the dividing beams and the tie-down eyes that I used to great effect. It was very easy to pack, lying right in the driveway. We spent plenty on really nice packing stuff (bubble wrap, 8 restaurant-size rolls of wrap and high-end padded blankets), and I used it generously throughout. The high-end dolly/hand truck was worth every penny.

It's weird to have the house so diminished so early, but it feels great. We won't touch any of that stuff again until the new house is ready.

Other than that, day was mostly about getting haircuts for everyone save eldest daughter. I got friend Bradd to get me one final day visitor's pass to base, so me and the kids all got one last haircut with our beloved Ruth, to whom we were all sorry to bid farewell. But we snapped a nice photo of her holding Vonne Mei, and there were many hugs before we got into the car.

Weird to be on base one last time. Right now it is the big graduation week events. Always a lot of fun. But this year I spend those days at the Army War College and Central Command's special ops symposium, and that shift alone tells you where the work has taken me in the last year.

Tonight, some good Glenfiddich. This weekend, some offline time with the family. I will clock back in on Monday.

Two aggregate article posts:

■ Our enemies, our solutions (part 1)

■ Our enemies, our solutions (part 2)

Our enemies, our solutions (part 2)

■"North Korea Sparks Proliferation Fears Throughout Asia: Historic Rivalries Exacerbate Nuclear Anxiety in Region; Tapei Frets About China; Japan's New Plutonium Plant," by Carla Anne Robbins and Gordon Fairclough, Wall Street Journal, 16 June 2005. p. A1.

■"Chinese City Emerges as Model in AIDS Fight," by Jim Yardley, New York Times, 16 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Disney's China Play: Its New Hong Kong Park Is a Big Cultural Experiment; Will 'Main Street' Translate?" by Geoffrey A. Fowler and Merissa Marr, Wall Street Journal, 16 June 2005, p. B1.

The U.S. is very unhappy to see North Korea get the bomb, and so it frets that Japan will reach for it out of fear, as will South Korea. Both certainly could, and then East Asia would have five nuclear powers, including the always present U.S. Right now it has two, which seems better. The countries with the most to lose in this development are China and the United Statesóno question.

So where is the quid pro quo to keep the status quo?

We can either deal with new nuclear powers, or we can eliminate the emerging third one. If we topple Kim, we secure America's long-term security standing in the region via a new strategic partnership with China. How do I know this? Such an achievement is basically the price for getting China's help.

Instead, we offer China nothing on security and plenty on insecurity and wonder why Beijing does not play along. We're asking China to sell something that was once very dear to them. So why can't we figure out the price?

You tell me that China can't be trusted, that it's political scene is too authoritarian. Non-pluralistic yes, but the authoritarianism is far more limited than most imagine. China is opening up to the outside world is all spheres, and in only oneóthe political sphereóis Beijing resisting the reformatting of its rule sets that such opening up typically entails. That is the price the Chinese leadership demand for this growing connectedness. It is a small price to pay, and one we've paid many times in the past, yielding, slowly but surely over time, real pluralism in countries like . . . South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

Of course, we have huge military power over all three of those countries, and we have far less over "rising China," but that just means we have to actualize our military advantage in different ways: by using it to give China things it wants and in exchange demanding certain efforts on Beijing's part.

You look around China and you see a society adapting rapidly andófor the most partóquite effectively to modernization and rapid industrialization and ever rapid post-industrialization. China will teach us many things in coming years, as it confronts problems like pollution, or AIDS, or cancer, or a host of other problems we've already marginalized but havenít really conquered. There is much profit and much promise in China's rise. I mean, if it can teach Disney about feng shui, it can teach the world about so much more.

What stands between the now and the strategic partnership that will define the 21st Century are old wounds and old fights from another age. It is time to move on. It is time to turn enemies into solutions.

Looking for insights on China debate

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 16 June 2005

Finishing POD #1 today.

Meanwhile, I want to elicit insights from readers regarding how they see the current inside-the-Defense-Department debate on China unfolding, especially in reference to the Quadrennial Defense Review.

Email me at tom@thomaspmbarnett.com.

I'm hearing certain things from certain people, and I want to get my head on straight before committing something to text.

Initial reports on the QDR indicated China had slipped to an "emerging power" whose rise needed to be guided, but in the past few weeks the China-is-a-threat chorus has grown. Kaplan's piece in the Atlantic Monthly is one clear example (to include Pacific Command's clearly hard-line feed to him on the subject), Rumsfeld's recent speech in Singapore is another. There's the Taiwan scenario for the Navy, and the space fears for the Air Force.

How is this dynamic of debate currently playing out in the Pentagon? I have my own information and theories. If you have some particular insights, pass them along. They will be put to good use, with attribution as desired.

Long day's journey into night

Dateline: above the sold garage, thinking of tomorrow's packing, 15 June 2005

Up at 0430 after a tiring night of sleeping with a small Chinese woman who started kicking me violently around 1 am (we drank some water, had a short talk, and made amends). My five-year-old also magically appeared at some point, he of the sleeping sideways trick. I was almost grateful to bail at dawn's early light.

Commuter jet to LaGuardia, then another to Charlottesville VA. Quick drive in rental to yet another out-of-the-way-but-totally-unique-antique-resort-setting-just-60-miles-from-DC. This was a Brookings Institution retreat/training seminar for DoD midlevel types, both civil and military. Got there just in time for the gourmet lunch. Then hooked up and went 120, getting less far in the brief than I usually do in 60. The fatigue of the past few days slowed me down. Good news, I tend to tell more stories when I'm tired, so I cover less ground but a richer brief. Went over well, and I signed the copies of seemingly everyone there, all of whom had new paperbacks and two of which also had hard covers to sign.

Then back to the airport, and return flights to and through Philly to home. I am beat. Here are articles blogged along the way.

Oh, and I picked up an Esquire July issue along the way. Rummy on the cover (small picture), plus the first of four additional "covers" (super close-up) just inside. Sort of my first cover-story, I guess. And that's what Mark Warren called it over the phoneóthe lead story of a 'special issue.' It felt very good to see it in print.

Even cooler to seeóin two Philly airport bookstoresóthe Esquire cover story plus the PNM paperback within feet of each other. I felt an almost Bill Shatner-like level of self-love.

Which reminds me of my waistline . . .

Ouch, and my hairline too . . .

Time to go to bed.

Here's the daily catch:

■ No Rumsfeld wars, but no Rumsfeld peace either

■ Iran's sullen majority to speak out?

■ Politicians are expert at pissing in the wind on global trade and integration

■ Real estate bubble is global, emphasizing globalization's profound connectivity

■ Ending poverty? How long? How long must we sing this song?

■ China's literate peasants are revolting? For what exactly?

■ God's eye view or ground eye's view?

■ Gas: It's the other hydrocarbon

■ The UN: What's it good for?

■ Homeland insecurities

■ On elder affairs, Japan sets the pace

No Rumsfeld wars, but no Rumsfeld peace either

■"Suicide Bomber Kills 22 In Attack At An Iraq Bank: Timed to Kill Pensioners; Assault in an Area of Rich Oil Fields May Signal a Fight for Its Control," by Edward Wong, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Let's Talk About Iraq: What is the strategy?" op-ed by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A29.

■"Memo: U.S. Lacked Full Postwar Iraq Plan: Advisers to Blair Predicted Instability," by Walter Pincus, Washington Post, 12 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Pentagon Funds Diplomacy Effort: Contracts Aim to Improve Foreign Opinion of United States," by Renae Merle, Washington Post, 11 June 2005, p. D1.

Friedman is right to note the worsening security situation in Iraq since the elections, but he continues to get it wrong on Powell-versus-Rumsfeld. His take on the Powell Doctrine is simply out of date and here's why: Powell was never about nation-building or the second-half effort, and his overwhelming force doctrine was about keeping the warfighting first-half effort as short as possible in order to leave the playing field as quickly as possible.

Friedman may mock Rumsfeld with the "Rumsfeld Doctrine" of "just enough troops to lose," but his head's way up his ass on that one. The Rumsfeld Doctrine is called using the information age to tilt the playing field overwhelming in the U.S. favor, thus reducing the number of soldiers we need to put at risk on the ground during war. Efficiency, Tom. Doing more with less people. Read your own book for Christ's sake!

What hasn't been married up to that transformed first-half force is a second-half force that's far more fully committed to nation-building. Here is where Powell's doctrine should live in the "flat world": in the second-half where there is no such thing as having too many cops on the beat.

Two concepts, Tom. Learn to distinguish between the two. The war was won. What is being squandered is the peace.

We got to get better at the whole shebang of nation-building, from the initial planning right through to the strategic communications that signal our intentions far more clearly. That is not winning (or losing wars), but learning how to wage peace better.

Politicians are expert at pissing in the wind on global trade and integration

■"CAFTA in Peril on Capitol Hill: One Business Leader Gives Lawmakers an Ultimatum," by Thomas B. Edsall, Washington Post, 12 June 2005, p. A6.

■"Central American Trade Pact Passes First Congressional Test," by Elizabeth Becker, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. C4.

■"European Charter's Architect Faults Chirac for Its Demise," by Elaine Sciolino, New York Times, 15 June 2005, p. A3.

■"Blair-Chirac Clash Could Paralyze EU: Disputes on Budget, Charter May Undermine U.K.'s Bid To Steer Bloc in Its Direction," by Marc Champion and Dan Bilefsky, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. A13.

CAFTA (Central American Free Trade Agreement) seems in danger in the House, but less so in the Senate (the usual rule). Dems are predicting a 90 percent against rate for their numbers in the House, even as business association reps like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Thomas J. Donahue promise financial (as in election campaign donations) retributions.

Watching the Dems on this one is like watching the French and Dutch on the EU Constitution. It is typically the out-of-power party in the Core that argues for go-slow on globalization, preying on people's pain and fears. Ross Perot and the Republicans did it plenty under Clinton, and now the Dems do it big time under Bush. Leading is all about the future, and when you're in power, it's hard to do anything but embrace globalization for the challenges it represents. But when you feel like you're falling behind in the game, like the French seem to feel across the board, then the best you can do is try and prevent the future for as long as possible.

Iran's sullen majority to speak out?

■"Iran's Giant Question Mark: To Vote or Not?" by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 14 June 2005, p. A4.

■"As Iran's Vote Nears, Even Clerics Are Hip, Or Are Trying to Be: Front-Runner Rafsanjani Woos Young People; Disco Balls, Soccer Rallies," by Farnaz Fassihi, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Iran's Giant Question Mark: To Vote or Not?" by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 14 June 2005, p. A4.

■"Iranian Women Defy Authority to Protest Sex Discrimination," by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, 13 June 2005, p. A8.

■"Kuwait Names Woman to Cabinet," by Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, 13 June 2005, p. A8.

■"Why I'm Joining Al Jazeera," op-ed by Riz Khan, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. A12.

The Iranian election is proving to be quite the show. Two-thirds of the population are under 30 and since you can vote at 16, roughly 70 percent of the voting public is under 30. Attracting the youth vote is a must, so even a Nixon-like Rafsanjani, whose presidency in the 1990s was full of corruption and tough stances on liberals and critics, gets into the act.

Still, Rafsanjani would like be an improvement over the dashed hoped created by Khatami, whose surprise victory in 2001 led many to hope for reforms, only to see those hopes dissolve with 9/11 and Iran being namedóquite deservedly, mind youóto the Axis of Evil.

I think Rafsanjani offers more hope in the same way that Nixon went to China: you need someone trusted by the hard-liners but practical enough to see the future for the current log-jam to be solved. That log-jam being Iran wants to rejoin the world enough to revive its economy, but doesn't seem willing to compromise enough on key political issues (WMD, terrorism) to make that connectivity a possibility. So maybe Nixon doesn't need to go to Tehran if he's already there in the form of a newly "re-elected" president.

And maybe we'll just have Rafsanjani to kick around for a few more years.

If elected, and he's now the front-runner (something I blogged as a possibility a while back), Rafsanjani will face a public that's getting impatient for real change, with a key driver being women who are sick and tired of being treated like minors in their own country throughout their lives (their placards, not mine). So either Rafsanjani placates such demands somehow, or he would inevitably oversee a further distancing of even more of the public from a government that most loath. Again, the Nixon imagery here is more than apt.

But I am more than upbeat on the Big Bang's continued unfolding in the region. There is a real sense of urgency, of "enough already!" When Al Jazeera starts its English-version channel, I'll be interested enough to watch it, assuming I can locate it somehow on cable or the web.

Ending poverty? How long? How long must we sing this song?

■"Finance Chiefs Cancel Debt of 18 Nations: $40 Billion Owed to International Agencies Is Written Off; The relief package from the Group of 8 is conditional on good government practices," by Alan Cowell, New York Times, 12 June 2005, p. A12.

■"Bono's New Cause: Another African project for the U2 front man," editorial, Wall Street Journal, 13 June 2005, p. A12.

■"Concern Grows Over Nepal's Child Fighters: 'Untouchables' Used by Rebels in Brutal War," by John Lancaster, Washington Post, 14 June 2005, p. A18.

So the Old Core forgives a load of bad debt in the deep Gap. John Snow, our Treasury Sec, says "It is my hope today that this reform will conclusively end the destabilizing lend-and-forgive approach to development assistance in low-income countries."

Don't hold your breath John.

And don't hold your breath, ONE Campaign (now officially trendy with the PR shot of George Clooney looking handsome in his white ONE rubber bracelet in the current issue of Esquire) on your associated hopes for better development assistance plus a trade reform that cuts back on the Old Core's absurd trade subsidies to its own ag corporations (Bush just gave up on that back here, and the plight of such efforts in Europe, led by Tony Blair, looks equally fruitless, thanks to Chirac and those pesky French farmers).

The lend-and-forgive moment is just thatóa moment. The only things that really matters is what comes next.

Politicians fear Bono. He can be all sweet and everything, but frankly, he gets his way more through his potential shaming (like the Canadian PM he beat-up in the press) than through his charm (or lyrics). Being Catholic and oh so Irish, I understand both sources of his power (my Mom has long wielded an immense power of her own), and there's nothing wrong with either. No shame, no fear in not following the rules. It's just that Bono is proposing some new rules here, and if he wants to lock in today's gains, he better not stand still. He needs to go after the sources of conflictóand their victims.

A great place to start? Any conflict where large numbers of kids are forced into combat units. Tell me that's a hard one to shame on.

Give them some "Bloody Sunday" man. Hit 'em where it hurts. Make them look into the eyes of their kids and imagine them in combat.

Use your power for good, Bono, and take your sunglasses off inside. My Mom says so.