■"Fast-Aging Japan Keeps Its Elders On the Job Longer: Threat to Economic Growth Spurs Incentives, Laws; Trend Other Nations Face; 'I Want to Work Till I'm 80,'" by Sebastian Moffett, Wall Street Journal, 15 June 2005, p. A1.

The Japanese response to their demographic aging is always worth noting, not just because they're furthest along in this process, but because they'll be both the most stubborn about it (trying to "go it alone" far too much out of fear of immigration) and the most innovative (trying to technologize the problem away with robots (I can just see the scene from "Pokemon 2025": "Colostomi, empty my bag!" cried the infirmed Pokemon master Ash after a long day of too much eating; "Colo! Colo!" cried the tiny monster happily).

In some of the earliest versions of my current brief (back when it was built off the NewRuleSets.Project I conducted with Cantor Fitzgerald atop WTC1, I used to do a couple of extra slides on the "people flow" that included data on what it would take for Europe, the U.S. and Japan to maintain their Personal Support Ratios (PSRs, or number of working age to retirees) as their populations aged. And if you tried to do it through immigation alone, the numbers were staggering, as in letting in millions of people each year.

Of course, that would never happen, nor should it, because rising technology means fewer workers CAN support more retirees, although that's a long-term trend that can't exactly be sped up at the drop of a hatóor an elder.

Typically, most experts predict that a combination of solutions will be required: more productivity, more immigration, and longer careers. As soon as I saw the numbers, I said to myself, I'm going to do exactly what my Dad did and work til I'm 80 or so.

You want to see what some call the "geezer economy," you go to Florida and see the amazing number of elders in the work force (same with Arizona), as these "retirees" simply fill in the gaps across the service industry, taking on jobs that elsewhere tend to go to relatively young workers.

Well, Japan is moving in this direction big timeócall it "elder sourcing."

Story came with neat chart on when states hit what Pete Peterson calls the "Florida mark" of having 20% or more of your population over 65. Japan hits it next year! Then again, so does Italy. Germany next at 2009, then France at 2018.

But here's the interesting bit, and it's yet another example of what I mean when I say that China and the United States have more in common than they realize: both will hit the mark in 2036, the year I turn 74 (only six more years to retirement!).

More interesting, the chart provides the year in which each state hits the 10% mark, and China has the shortest gap between the two marks of 10% and 20%: 19 years (2017-2036). Italy comes next at 20 years (1986-2006), then Japan at 21 years (1985-2006), then Germany at 57 years (1952-2009), then the U.S. at 64 years (1972-2036), and France at 75 years (1943-2018).

This is proof positive of the prediction made by demographers that China will age more rapidly than any state in human history.