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Entries from July 1, 2007 - July 31, 2007

2:31AM

This week's column

Publishing book in China its own adventure

A Chinese edition of my book, "The Pentagon's New Map," was published in the People's Republic last month, ending a three-year censorship battle that had twice derailed publication. The entire process was an education in how things get done inside China and how that regime slowly changes as it opens up to the outside world.

My literary agent received several inquiries from Chinese publishers following the book's North American release in early 2004. We eventually settled with Beijing University Press for two reasons: 1) the prestige factor, and 2) unlike many Chinese publishers, the university actually pays authors their book advances -- in advance.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

5:26PM

Half a loaf is better than none

ARTICLE: Africa, Offline: Waiting for the Web, By RON NIXON, New York Times, July 22, 2007

Interesting stat on Internet connection WRT Africa.

The piece illustrates a key provision from C.K. Prahalad's "The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid": find the reasonable affordable price and then simply figure out how to make it happen at that price--at a profit. Often, this involves simplifying the service quite a bit, but half a loaf is better than none.

Thanks to Jarrod Myrick for sending this.

5:24PM

None of this is impossible

POST: COIN in a Tribal Society, By Dave Dilegge, July 21, 2007

Another great example of learning.

None of this is impossible, it just took time for the serious students to emerge and begin to teach others.

5:14PM

PRTs are the embryonic SysAdmin/DoEE

POST: Letter from the Raider Brigade Commander

The PRTs are the embryonic SysAdmin and the foot soldiers of the Department of Everything Else.

They are not a new concept. In Vietnam they were known as CORDs. Given time, they work everywhere, but the time required is everything, and--politically-speaking--Bush has wasted an extraordinary amount of time.

So great to see, because it shows how really attacking the problem can yield the outcome desired, but also sad to hear so late in the game.

To me, though, the key becomes less Iraq the proving ground and more Iraq the learning laboratory. As the operational experience mounts, the case for the SysAdmin force/DoEE gets harder to refute.

Thanks to CitSAR for sending this.

1:58PM

Opinions are like...

Tom get this email:

The pentagon's New Map--Comment

You don't know me but i'm a 40 year old National security expert with a Master's degree in Political Science from the University of Dayton. I felt compelled to write you after reading part of your book. It's completely wrong in every way. The premises to the arguements are wrong--even the critique of the right side of the Political Spectrum in this book is wrong. In fact i am completely amazed at your inability to understand even the basis of a good National Security Policy--one of which is not to be drawn into conflicts that bankrupt the treasury of the government. i'll give you a challenge though instead of calling names. I will debate you anytime and anywhere in this country at any forum. You name the place and the time. Your ideas are so left leaning liberal that any good national security person would be able to show you up. And by the way---Power Point presentations are perceptions--not realities---I hope you at least know the difference

Jeff Lanphere

Tom's reply:

Wow! He sure lays me to waste with that stunning critique!

Hard to counter his logic. Certainly, Mr. Lanphere has earned his right to debate me, being 40 and an expert and having read several pages of my first book.

I mean, it's not like he's just another asshole with an opinion.

8:04AM

Odd and bad argument from Obama

ARTICLE: Obama: Don't Stay in Iraq Over Genocide, By PHILIP ELLIOTT, AP, Jul 20, 2007

Odd and bad argument for Obama to make, one that paints him in a corner. Citing the slippery slope argument that says, "If I don't do it everywhere, then I must not do it anywhere" is foolish and self-restricting. I can't believe Samantha Powers let's him spew that.

7:55AM

A possible energy pathway

PETROLEUM COUNCIL: "Draft Report: Facing the Hard Truths about Energy: A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas," July 18, 2007 [13MB pdf]

I read the highlights in NYT and it seemed very sensible, suggesting a global tipping point on oil, whereby the cost of more production will simply force a migration off our current model. As I have written many times, I see the New Core leading this process, and with Honda's recent announcement on building a new model in China specifically for the Chinese market and partnering with a Chinese automaker, you get a clear sense of the pathway possible.

Thanks to John Shissler for sending this.

6:14AM

Sullivan props

Andrew Sullivan linked to Tom this morning, noting that Tom wrote that problems in Iraq could ultimately serve peace in the Middle East. The linked post is Bush’s Big Bang strategy continues to provide opportunities for radical change.

11:37AM

Protege, not planner

ARTICLE: A Resolute Condoleezza Rice, By Maria Bartiromo, BusinessWeek, JULY 23, 2007

Money quote:

I'm a terrible long-term planner.

Hmmm, that's explains a lot.

This is what happens when the professional protege gets promoted beyond her talent.

Thanks to Pat O'Connor for sending this.

11:34AM

Don't forget about India

ARTICLE: Tata sets wheels in motion for Ford deal, By Mark Kleinman, Telegraph, 18/07/2007

Sebastian Mallaby wrote recently about state-directed investment funds being the next hot topic in globalization, and I agree. But this sort of demonstrated New Core ascendancy, as Shiva put it, is likely to attract even more heat. We always focus such attention on China (e.g., Sinopec, Lenovo), but India's rising MNCs are also very impressive. Tata is the King Kong in India. The family underwrote most of India's cost in hosting the International Fleet Review of 2001 that I attended, meaning they bought my biz-class tickets, got me the nice room for a week, the driver, the car--the works.

Thanks to Shiva Polefka for sending this.

11:32AM

Word on the (Iranian) street

ARTICLE: Iranian Public Ready to Deal on Nuclear Weapons, But Not Uranium Enrichment, World Public Opinion

Interesting and worth reading on the state of thinking in street-level Iran. Fairly logical, when you consider it.

9:56AM

600--the guest column

Got an offer recently from a major news weekly to do a short column on a subject near and dear, so I said yes.

Cranked 910 words this morning, and then painstakingly reduced it to 600 (actually, it's a lot of fun and I enjoy slimming down a piece so).

Feels weird to have so many things in play right now:

1) the usual weekly column (this week on the story behind getting PNM published in China);

2) the shorter piece sitting with Esquire for their October issue ("Top 100 ideas");

3) a longer piece for the same issue;

4) this piece for the news weekly;

5) a lengthy essay currently being edited for the Baker Center's flagship journal;

6) and, of course, the all-important proposal for Vol. III currently sitting on Neil Nyren's desk.

Still, it makes sense to be writing so much in the typically slower summer. Now is the time to collect thoughts and cull stones, apparently.

7:58AM

Was the surge a set-up?

ARTICLE: Help Wanted: Peacemaker, By Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, July 18, 2007, Pg. 19

Understand the frustration here and agree. I was willing to support the surge from the start, as I often noted, but only if--as Friedman now puts it--there would have been an accompanying diplomatic surge. Otherwise, it just struck me that everyone would simply wait us out, which they are doing.

You look at that dynamic, then, cynically, and you listen to the build-up from various sources about how war with Iran is "inevitable," and you begin to think the whole surge thing was a complete set-up.

And that gets me very mad indeed, much like Friedman.

7:55AM

Filling the Saudi humor Gap

ARTICLE: 'A Young Saudi's Online Gambit: Comedy Writer Launches Site for 20-Something Arabs Starved for Entertainment,' By Faiza Saleh Ambah, Washington Post, July 19, 2007; Page A10

To me, Saudi Arabia, despite its concentrated wealth, remains very Gap. You get a sense of that taboo-based, denial-of-outside-influences disconnectedness in this piece.

Very interesting.

You can see why the elite find globalization so scary with its flood of accessible entertainment and taboo material.

7:50AM

Jihadists are self-negating nihilists

ARTICLE: State Sponsors of Jihadism: Learning the Hard Way, By Kamran Bokhari, Stratfor

Agree with it.

That's why I don't share Robb's pessimism. I find the jihadists self-negating because of their absurd goals. They are true nihilists, and they fit the time (an expansive, frontier-integrating period of globalization), because we last saw them in droves roughly a century ago, including here in America (the escapism of the ghost dancers). I instead see them as a natural and somewhat useful function in the network, much like the Architect views Neo and Zion in the Matrix. They simply have to be.

Thanks to Dan Hare for sending this.

7:45AM

Apostles' Creed for realists

ARTICLE: End of Dreams, Return of History, By Robert Kagan, Hoover Institution Policy Review

If you want the pure opposition to my thinking, Robert Kagan's produced it in this piece: globalization is meaningless, great power politics are everything, nothing has changed from the past, states rule all and nationalism is stronger than ever and the future is a struggle between democracy and autocracy. We have never left the 19th century, in terms of global dynamics. Any sense that we did was a pure illusion.

As that argument goes, this is about as good as it gets.

What is missing in the piece, of course, is economics, but realists don't care about that anyway, so not a problem. He does seem to acknowledge the continuing reality of MAD, because he doesn't speak of hot wars among great powers. But the key missing link, for now, is that China and Russia can't come together to balance unipolar America, so basically the past decade has been a complete wash, with no harm, no foul from Bush.

Consider this an Apostle's Creed for realists.

Thanks to TurcoPundit for sending this.

4:26PM

Revamped proposal for Vol. III sent to Putnam

After inputs from agents. Now up to almost 20 pages.

Still feels good, like a book only I can write and a book I should write.

I'll take the kidney stone attacks as a good sign, given my history ....

Worked out like crazy today, doing anything I could to trigger some action. It's a weird but kinda fun grind. Very Jeckel and Hyde though: you're great in the day and then it comes in the night. Still, I love being around my family, and I like the concentrated bouts of writing. I really could live at home full time and just write every day. I see why authors like it.

Fear not, though. I have my next trip already planned for next week, and just landed my first big speaking gig (big, as in, paying) for the fall. It's just fun being around the house when everyone's home. If it wasn't for bugs, summer would be perfect.

11:38AM

Connecting Africa is about much more than water

ARTICLE: Water find 'may end Darfur war', BBC, 18 July 2007

The Darfur story is an old one, as I noted in either PNM or BFA: the cowboy and the farmer can't be friends. It gets dressed up as a "clash' here because it's Arab Muslim cowboys and largely black African farmers. Desertification in the north pushes Arabs southward, and so now the hope is that more water resources in the south will calm the violence.

It is definitely a start and good news for refugees, but let's remember, the cowboy and farmer weren't friends in the American West for reasons beyond water (relatively plentiful then). It's mostly about controlling the land. More water makes the land more sustainable in terms of population, but it also makes it more valuable, and therefore more worth fighting over.

The reason why I crankily eschew the promise of single solutions, especially resource-based ones, as answers to conflict ("Get them water!" "Get us off oil!") is that they strike me as treating symptoms. If they're bad enough, then yeah, every bit helps. No sense in killing the cancer if the infection's gonna get you first. But relieving the resource pinch doesn't solve the underlying problems that yield the deprivation or misuse and perpetuate them. There are plenty of water-stressed places in the world without genocide. So it's a bit neat to say, "Give them water and the genocide will cease," even if that may well be true (and thus worthy) in the short term.

Simply put, there is no silver bullet, but always a complex interweaving generating enough connectivity that allows for individual creativity and entrepreneurship to emerge.

The denial of basic needs certainly hampers that emergence, but their provision, especially when unsustainably provided by outsiders via aid, is more status quo-enhancing than paradigm breaking.

Why do I argue like this?

I want to escape the logic that says, "For pennies a day, we can keep this disenfranchised, marginalized, unempowered person barely alive, assuaging your sense of personal guilt and moral obligation. You too can 'save' Africa/Country X!"

I don't want to save Africa. I want it integrated into the global economy with the same brutal, indifferent efficiency that pulled Europe together first, then North America, and now Asia. I want the entire package to come to Africa, in all its glory and pain and liberation and dislocation and pollution and innovation.

I don't want to make Sudan simply survivable. I want to make it accessible and therefore exploitable.

And whether we like it or not, China's doing more than we are to make that happen. It ain't pretty, it ain't often just, but it connects.

I want to connect American grand strategy to that sort of unstoppable force--that greed for a better life.

You might call it the "pursuit of happiness."

But the story does show why it makes so much sense for CJTF-HOA to focus on well digging in East Africa. Having traversed the area, it's clearly the long pole in the tent. Serious hydrological work, I might imagine, is a rare thing in those parts. Why? You need outside technology abetted with outside money fueled by outside greed to connect that region to the outside. We're now toying with that in our military penetration of the region (toying in the sense of pursuing in a limited fashion). China and Asia in particular offer more base ambitions, suggesting longer legs (remember, one Blackhawk down last time and we pullled).

I want to put those two together.

Thanks to Matthew Garcia for sending this.

5:50AM

Going through the labors . . .

I acquired kidney stones as a kid. Too much milk, I was told.

They began to be a problem in my 20s.

First bout was during my senior honors thesis at UW-Madison. Since I was writing about Solzhenitsyn's concept of "Ascent" and how you achieve spiritual awakening through intense physical suffering, it seemed apropos enough.

Then I was in the clear until my PhD, when the other side struck. At the time, I just assumed: write a big academic publication, pass a stone.

The second time was at Harvard, and I was given the chance to pursue the new technology known as lithotripsy (I was one of the first several thousand) at the hands of one of its great pioneers, the big guy at Mass Gen in Boston. Back then they dipped you in water when doing it (now, it's so simple they do it in a tractor trailer).

That procedure left me with a load of too-small-to-crush fragments in either side. Every so often they give me trouble, usually in the spring.

I have not had any episode requiring drugs for almost 20 years, but Sunday night I was knocked down pretty well and Monday night was as bad as anything I've ever endured.

So, the assumption right now is that I'm moving a lot of material and just have to get it done.

Odd situation, like a woman's labor: you want to trigger it but you don't want to trigger it, meaning you want to get it done but you ain't looking forward to the process.

So a strange routine: up all night in discomfort and pain, then sleep in, then spend day doing all sorts of physical activities to trigger action, then you're worn out, then comes night and the pain returns and you do it all over again.

Had to cancel trip to CA in meantime. 16 hours in planes over two days just a bit too scary, especially the night away. Again, it's like waiting for the labor to kick in: you keep a certain routine but you also stay close to home and keep your bags packed. I am trying to stay out of the hospital (they actually can't do much of anything but shoot you up, which really helps only if you're out of control and I don't expect it to get that bad), but you never know.

If I can't manage this within X days, I will need to probably at least get an X-ray.

Meanwhile, I'm writing in chunks. Weekly column done. Expanded two pieces for the October Esquire that I've been working on. Turning the discarded Fast Company piece into a paper for the Baker Center's new flagship journal. And putting final touches on Vol. III revamped proposal, which I am very excited about and hope Neil Nyren, somewhere in the next 24 hours, will also become very excited about.

So with all this creative birthing going on, I guess the stones are just an added ambience.

An artist's gotta suffer ...

7:21AM

Gaming the exit aftermath

ARTICLE: 'Exit Strategies: Would Iran Take Over Iraq? Would Al-Qaeda? The Debate About How and When to Leave Centers on What Might Happen After the U.S. Goes,' By Karen DeYoung and Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, July 17, 2007; Page A01

Tom knows Gary going back to 1990 when both worked on "From the Sea ..." and respects him a lot. This game and analysis dovetails nicely with what Tom thinks and has been saying about Iraq.

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