Email (vitual) bag

Tom got this email:

Sir,

We are reading and studying your articles / books in our ILE course at Fort Gordon. We read your latest article entitled, Army needs dose of realism in planning for future wars, published July 12 in the Augusta Chronicle. Thanks for keeping it real and for bringing attention to relevant and important issues. I thank you.

major

Putin's oil company strategy

ARTICLE: "Russia's Rosneft Forges New Oil Pact With Shell," by Benoit Faucon, Wall Street Journal, 10 July 2007, p. A4.

Re-working the next book proposal (outline set), expanded per Nyren's charge, but this one catches my eye.

A new cooperation deal between Royal Dutch Shell PLC and state-owned Russian oil company OAO Rosneft underscores how Russia is continuing to seek foreign investors as minority partners in oil and gas projects, even after unwinding some deals it signed with them in the 1990s.

It also confirms the country's strategy of using those same investors to help its energy companies expand beyond Russian borders.

Russia's desire to go up and downstream speaks to a connectivity strategy that's really different from your usual OPEC national oil company.

So clearly a Putin-led rule-set reset to take advantage of rising prices, but likewise a firmer strategy to leverage current connectivity for more over time.

And that's a good reason why I'm okay with Russia's path. Scary to some, but when you focus on connectivity over pluralism like I do, not bad.

Question on Kim's long-awaited demise

ARTICLE: NKorea Military Wants Talks With U.S., By BURT HERMAN, Associated Press, July 13, 2007

Does raise the question, as Kim gets closer to the end of his life, whether NK military might prefer a separate understanding with the outside world in preparation for the fall.

Thanks to Rob Johnson for sending this.

Only German-speakers need apply

ARTICLE: Only German-speaking spouses allowed, Marketplace, July 05, 2007

Fascinating.

Just watched "Sweet Land" last night with Vonne at home (great movie) and the story of a Minnesota immigrant farmer and his mail-order German bride (early 1920s) resonates oddly with this rule change in Germany today (anti-German feeling was high, and the fact she spoke German made her automatically suspect).

Per my "State of the World," it would seem the Brit doctors' plot is achieving quite the locking-down effect, despite its operational failure.

Whip it good

ARTICLE: When Cheap Products Kill: Emerging Global Trade Regulations, by Austin Bay, Strategy Page, July 10, 2007

Comparing this age of global supply chains to the colony-fueled globalization of the late 19th century is okay and useful, so long as you remember that age featured no such supply/production chains, hence the connectivity was only weakly conducive to rule set harmonization--often driven by scandal as my recent column observed.

Today, rules and security are incredibly caught up with actual and--more importantly-- investor-perceived competitiveness.

That whip snaps anyone who want to increase their income, especially when social harmony and regime legitimacy so depend upon it.

Thanks to Lexington Green for sending this.

Really, our economies are intertwined

ARTICLE: Seven Questions: Can You Live Without China?, Foreign Policy, July 2007

Weird experiment, but one that underlies something I've harped on for a while. People have no sense of how intertwined our economies already are--the U.S. and China.

This test was only about goods. Financially speaking, the connectivity is also quite profound.

Thanks to Matt Armstrong for sending this.

We can out-guerilla them

ARTICLE: My Cyber Counter-jihad, by Shannen Rossmiller, Middle East Quarterly, Summer 2007

Right outta Glenn Reynolds' "Army of Davids."

Point being, our "global guerrillas" are smarter, better connected, and--when turned on--just as motivated.

Thanks to Don Bollman for sending this.

'Soft kill' doesn't mean 'passive'

POST: Say NO to Job Security for Ahmadinejad

Great piece by Lex. The soft kill isn't about being passive, just non-kinetic.

And he's right on Ahmadinejad's "job security." The wrong war could make him very powerful indeed as a solution to the mullahs' flagging control. We don't want to simply trade theocratic autocracy for civilian autocracy. We want to exploit Iran's decay, it's need for FDI, the intense hunger of its people for outside connectivity, and Asia's rising economic presence to crack that nut for good.

Execution's a bit crude, but...

ARTICLE: China Executes Ex-Drug Chief, Vows to Stamp Out Fakes, By Dune Lawrence, Bloomberg, July 10, 2007

Bit crude, but China's sitting around 1889 America in this regard.

Thanks to Joe Hatlelid for sending this.

The problem with rerunning Reagan

POST: McCain Shakes Up and Giuliani Goes Off the Deep End,

I looked over the crew and likewise got similarly depressed. Add them all up and it would look like we're going to be tough on and with everyone (meaning we grow the military in all directions), and to me, that sounds like more of the same, just differently (and one would assume more adroitly) administered.

Rerunning the Ford Admin with W did not work, and rerunning the Reagan Admin is unlikely to work either. Too much thinking from bygone ages at a point in history when major realignments are taking place (the biggest ones just beginning). There is way too much going on globally to "hold any line" or "just get tough."

The board shifts dramatically under our feet. We either recalibrate or find ourselves fundamentally outflanked by history. We need to rejoin the world dramatically with this presidency. Accommodation on many fronts will be required to do that. Absent that "difficult/easy" (depending on your point of view) adjustment, our security will be--by default--dramatically damaged over time.

The other problem with rerunning Reagan for Rudy is that Thompson will do the same, and when McCain drops, one imagines those numbers go to him more than Giuliani (although Fred had a different sort of spouse problem). I fear Rudy assumes his low 30s numbers signal a floor, when they may be much closer to a ceiling (Hillary faces the same danger in the Dems).

Alas, in my desperation, I find my mind wandering to Barack Obama. I am willing to trade experience (although his wordly life is highly valuable at this point in history) for the flexibility required to change our damaged relationship with the world.

Thanks to Hans Suter for sending this.

Peace is non-zero-sum

ARTICLE: Winning: What Does it Mean?, By Charles D. Hayes, July 2007

Great piece that's helpful to recasting language regarding war/peace. We naturally go win-lose on war when peace, of course, is non-zero-sum--otherwise it cannot occur/last.

Thanks to Steve Gallison for sending this.

Let's hope for a hero now discovered

PRESS RELEASE: First Africa Command Commander Nominated

Out of BFA, let's hope Ward is a "hero now discovered."

Collier's book (II)

Overall, it continues to be good, even though I find he's imprecisely dismissive of the attractiveness right now of the Chinese Model inside the Gap.

For one, he says China's autocratic model of development can't work in ethnically diverse countries and works in China precisely because it's so homogeneous.

My problem with that is two-fold:

1) I don't find China particularly homogeneous, either culturally or linguistically (a sure sign). I think "uniform" China is a myth that land sells to itself to hold the place together despite the great differences (linguistically, for example, far greater than ethnically-divisive and long-time warring Europe). Indeed, China's history of kingdoms fighting kingdoms is longer and just as violent as anything Europe managed, and yet we call one a cauldron of nationalistic hatreds (until recently) and pretend the other is some homogeneous harmonious ethnic unity, when China's history says anything but that. I really feel we mislabel China a lot. To me, you compare China with Europe, not with France or Germany.

2) China's model is autocratic in politics but fairly wide open in economics (thus the corruption problem). So long as the political authoritarianism doesn't advantage one population over others, I'm not sure Collier's statement is as true as he imagines. But it's probably true, in more practical terms, than I care to admit.

Then again, if you describe China's model as single-party rule with state-directed capitalism, I think you're closer to describing a more portable model, so long as the party remains equally accessible by ethnic groups.

But here's what really triggered my post:

It is commonplace that the rich world wants to shift its dependence on oil away from the Middle East. That is where Africa and Central Asia come in. Yet it is also a commonplace that one reason why the Middle East is in such difficulties is that it has had such large oil revenues. Shifting our source of supply simply will not work as a security measure is the resource curse shifts with it. Becoming reliant upon the bottom billion for natural resources sounds to me like Middle East 2.

I have often cast the same argument in reverse: Want to see the Middle East with far less oil wealth? Look at Central Africa.

But it works both ways. The Middle East with substantial wealth (but not widespread development) gets us 9/11 and al Qaeda and the GWOT. Africa with far less resource wealth gets us millions of dead we don't have to care about. Reverse those situations and what do you achieve? Reversed situations and nothing more.

Second point to make on Collier's excellent observation: Guess who's making themselves increasingly dependent on bottom billion natural resources?

China.

Guess who doesn't have a military capable of dealing with that reality?

China.

If we press that vulnerability, are we likely to push China rapidly into democracy or something far worse?

Think about that for a minute.

Tom around the web

Another week, another 10 or so links to the TED video:
+ John Denver's Ghost
+ And Stupid for All!
+ ~C4Chaos
+ Grant Henninger
+ wizbang
+ sector404.org
+ Silflay Hraka
+ Porkopolis
+ 3protons.

+ 1 Raindrop linked Get your own foreign policy.
+ Hidden Unities linked Freedom increasingly defined as access to technology.
+ And linked The fight is within religions.
+ ShrinkWrapped linked Great piece by Brooks on Libby case.
+ New Yorker in DC linked Why do we let Pyongyang and Taipei run America's relationship with China?

+ What the Heck was I Thinking!? didn't like I watch Michael Moore promote "Sicko" and he impresses throughout.
+ House of War says Tom's weblog is a reason to remain cheerful.
+ Dumb Looks Still Free linked his own reviews of Tom's views of globalization.
+ Right Truth picked up Learn from the Brits and it got picked up at some other similar weblogs.
+ Roguely Stated gave Tom the Thinking Blogger award (I think we're up to two).
+ Stokes Kith and Kin linked The Americans Have Landed.
+ Kavanna says Tom's wrong about globalization.
+ And finally, the big stinker, Yblog ZA goes on at great length about his distaste for Tom and his ideas.

Kurds: Is a bird in the hand...

ARTICLE: 'Kurdistan Showdown,' By Ilan Berman, Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2007, Pg. 20

Good piece, raising, in my mind, the obvious solution that as we pull back from the south into Kurdistan, the quid pro quo from us to ally Turkey is two-fold: 1) by guaranteeing the KRG's de facto independence, the KRG must publicly disclaim any ambitions to unite Kurdish populations beyond its borders; and 2) the KRG, with U.S. help, must crackdown and expel the PKK.

The Kurds haven't decided if one in the hand is worth it or not, because the possibilities of three more in the bush will--if not pre-emptively precluded--generate dynamics of instability that will eventually lead to the KRG's subjugation by somebody.

Get real on DoD, State

ARTICLE: Taking Defense's Hand Out of State's Pocket, By Walter Pincus, Washington Post, July 9, 2007; Page A13

Fair to say DoD overreaches after 9/11, but in seeking to realign now, where does Congress intend to move these funds/efforts?

Does anyone see State effectively managing? USAID?

Get real.

Congress has yet to get anywhere near dealing with this profound gap in our capabilities. These cuts, by themselves, accomplish nothing.

There's no point in robbing Peter when there ain't no Paul.

Bear pix

Male bear from vacation

Foraging female and one of her brown cubs

Remember where the lines are drawn

ARTICLE: Al-Qaida leader in Iraq threatens Iran, AP, July 8, 2007

A simple reminder not to casually conflate Sunni al Qaeda with Shiite Iran.

Thanks to Jeff Jennings for sending this.

The IC is catching up

OP-ED: Who Runs the CIA? Outsiders for Hire, By R.J. Hillhouse, July 8, 2007; Page B05

Clearly, a new rule set in the offing. By clinging to its separateness and secrecy, the IC becomes more isolated by default as the world grows more transparent and connected. Trying to catch up, the solution set becomes outsourcing, not necessarily bad whatsoever (What? You thought CIA was so hot to begin with?). Indeed, one can argue that key info moves from public to private sectors in this era so why shouldn't the spying?

Still, a messy devlopment ripe for abuse. It will/has happened and we simply await the right scandal to trigger the rule set reset.

Calling Frank Church!

File under the people flow

ARTICLE: Back to India, By Robyn Meredith, Forbes, 07.23.07

In BFA, I described this as a crucial threshold in journeying from Gap to Core: the brain drain reverses.

Thanks to Pete Johnson for sending this.