Africa on a realistic upswing

OP-ED: "Africa: Land Of Hope," by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, 5 July 2007, p. A15.

The importance of lead geese:

1) Paul Kagame of booming Rwanda modeling himself on Lee Kuan Yew

2) Botswana as the fastest growing country in the world 1960-2001 and "more and more African countries are now following the Botswana model of welcoming investors and obeying markets," like Mozambique, Benin, Tanzania, Liberia and Mauritius--"trying to build a future on trade more than aid."

The package: U.S. Exporting security, China pulling with resource demands, and Africa stepping up just enough to attract the FDI befitting its status as the last great cheap labor pool left unexploited by globalization.

That's how you shrink the center of the Gap by 2035--or about the time I retire.

Stick along for the ride.

Great piece by Friedman showing how globalization's spread drives the jihadist response

ARTICLE: "At A Theater Near You ...," by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 4 July 2007, p. A19.

The perfect slice:

Two trends are at work here: humiliation and atomization. Islam's self-identity is that it is the most perfect and complete expression of God's monotheistic message, and the Koran is God's last and most perfect word. to put it another way, young Muslims are raised on the view that Islam is God 3.0, Christianity is God 2.0, Judaism is God 1.0, and Hinduism and all others are God 0.0.

One of the factors driving Muslim males, particularly educated ones, into these acts of extreme violence is that while they were taught that they have the most perfect operating system, every day they're confronted with the reality that people living by God 2.0, God 1.0 and God 0.0 are generally living much more prosperously, powerfully and democratically than those living under Islam. This creates a real dissonance and humiliation. How could this be? Who did this to us? The Crusaders! The Jews! The West! It can never be something that they failed to learn, adapt to or build. This humiliation produces a lashing out.

Game, set, match.

The more Islam is connected to the larger world through globalization's creeping embrace, the more this humiliation will be felt, and those most likely to "bring it on" will be educated Muslims who come to the Core and simply cannot accept that humiliation.

What's the expiration date on Mugabe?

ARTICLE: OK to invade and remove Mugabe, Ncube tells Brits

A sign of the average Zimbabwean's desperation under Mugage.

Ah, but America's gotta get out of that business, right?

"Every time I think I'm out, they pull me back in!"
--the 44th POTUS

Congressional meddling

Committee News: Committee on Ways & Means: U.S. House of Representatives: Peru and Panama

I get the okay on Peru (right labor considerations) and I get the desire to fine-tune on South Korea similarly.

What I don't get is the violence focus in Colombia. The Dems admit that is way beyond the scope of an FTA, so why hold it hostage?

This is a terrible signal to send an ally whose main misfortunes are fed by our own bizarre anti-drug policies (the main reason why we imprison so many). Why should we passive-aggressively punish Colombia by denying trade for our own sins?

This is Congressional meddling at its best: misguided, misapplied, and chock full of misunderstanding of political developments beyond our shores.

Pelosi screws this one up nicely.

Thanks to Keith Mitchell for sending this.

When, not if. Then who

OP-ED: Get ready for next attack, By David Ignatius, Indianapolis Star, July 5, 2007

Thoughtful piece by Ignatius that suggests to me how a terror attack on the U.S. would propel Rudy to victory. He's the focused-on-terror candidate who won't get caught up in the Left-v-Right fingerpointing likely to follow, as Ignatius accurately portrays.

Bet on when, not if.

What Africa needs and wants

ARTICLE: Africans to Bono: 'For God's sake please stop!', By Jennifer Brea, American.com, Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Great piece.

I caught some real crap for the line about "only Western celebrities care about Africa," but I meant it with all due cynicism.

When I get excited about Africa, it's not some aid-flow thing, but the Chinese showing up, seeing the place for what it is, and saying to themselves: "Hmm, looks just like home to us. Let's get started making business!"

I mean, it's always charming to think of ourselves as saviors, but Africa doesn't need saviors, it needs investors and businessmen and entrepreneurs who will exploit it to within an inch of its life and--by doing so--accomplish so much more so much faster than all the previous colonialism and aid combined (both kill local capacity, so what's the difference?).

What Africa needs from us is the security capacity-building promised by Africom.

My favorite line: give them mosquito nets or invest in some local to start a bug-spraying business. Guess which is more sustainable?

Bet on greed, pass on the altruism.

And please, can we stop enshrining our hypocrisy (whether it's the neocons after "winning" Iraq, the creepy Wilsons, or the "new faces of Africa" that somehow include Warren Buffett and George Clooney) on the covers of Vanity Fair? That mag is like some queer chronicle of American self-delusions.

Thanks to Keith Mitchell for sending this.

Speaking of Newt

OP-ED: Sarkozy's Lesson for America, By Newt Gingrich, Washington Post, Thursday, July 5, 2007; Page A17

Speaking of Newt: a good op-ed from him that reminds why he is formidable. Implicitly, he notes the Boomers' horrific failures in national leadership.

Great piece by Brooks on Libby case

ARTICLE: "Ending the Farce," by David Brooks, New York Times, 3 July 2007, p. A21.

The best parts are when he compares the stunning hypocrisy of Left and Right across the Monica and Libby cases.

Bottom line: Boomers simply suck as politicians. Born of Watergate and Vietnam, they replay these shows over and over again to no useful leadership outcomes. I want them off-stage so bad it hurts.

Frankly, that's what scares me most on Hillary: this will simply continue for another fruitless four or--God forbid--eight MORE YEARS!

I will simply go nuts with this nonsense. Why not just admit the Boomers can't govern and let Bill Gates (now sainted) rule instead.

On the GOP side, that attracts me to Rudy (he is his own universe) and Romney (possibly from another universe). McCain's a goner (painful to watch), Newt would be a nightmare of Boomer infighting, and Thompson just does not excite--save as null hypothesis ("I could remind you of Reagan!").

On the Dems' side, I don't think Hillary can be stopped, but that is the promise and excitement of Obama's fundraising.

Don't get me wrong. I think Hillary would be a good president, but a plagued one, and I'm not enamored with the notion of the Clintonites all returning in triumph, because I'm skeptical they'll really do much with the time.

So I'm left with Obama's promise (I don't see Gore stepping up) and Rudy's plausibility, and for now I still lean to the latter on the basis of experience.

And I gotta tell you, that's weird. Rudy's 3 marriages, being Catholic and pro-choice (as am I), plus Italian and a New York mayor (can anyone say Al Smith?), that's one strange package on the face of it.

But there it is--for now. And I don't see that much changing, although Hillary v. Rudy v. Bloomberg is certainly one strange subway series.

Tom in USN&WR

Tom got referenced again in US News and World Report's Capital Commerce weblog in the post Globalization: Bin Laden's vs. the West's. Tom's part:

Geopolitical strategist and consultant Tom Barnett, a former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, says the jihadist menace is, in reality...

"...'global' resistance that's really all about the Gap, where globalization is coming in...and reformatting traditional societies that are unprepared for its new rule sets. Radical extremists (typically young men) rise up in resistance to this Borg-like assimilation, believing it's evil and driven by infidels. They advocate a civilizational apartheid, and their dream expression is the resurrection of the ancient caliphate stretching across the whole of the predominately Islamic societies of North Africa to southeast Asia...Faced with a globalizing integration process, it 'goes global' itself. The answer to this threat is to make globalization global, meaning it's essentially a race."

Thanks to Jack Slovic for sending this in.

Decline of the American Republic, or...

ARTICLE: Private contractors outnumber U.S. troops in Iraq, By T. Christian Miller, LA Times, July 4, 2007

The decline of the Roman Empire to some, or the logical shift from public sector to private that we're seeing all over the dial, so why should we expect the war/peace equation to be any different?

Remember this: markets build countries by demanding the development of states that function sufficiently enough to enable and regulate and protect them. Who's going to put in the frontier time required to integrate these bad lands? Expect the most incentivized to do the bulk of the work: our super-incentivized against their super-pissed-off, with technology empowering all individuals. We win by creating numbers. Locally, that can be hard, but globally, it's happening in spades (those 3 billion new capitalists). So our strategic goal is connecting the incentivized to the opportunities.

America will not be the main conveyor of globalization into the restless Gap; New Core pillars like India and China and Brazil and Russia and South Korea and Indonesia (etc.) will.

The coming realignment is everything. There were trajectories in sight prior to 9/11. There were the course corrections and ruleset resets triggered by that System Perturbation, and now, as dinosaurs fade and mammals rise, we seek the great realignment.

Trajectories resumed, globalization consummated. No illusions on the amount of violence required, but also no delusions that we can win by expanding our list of enemies and contracting our pool of allies.

Thanks to Kelly Hall for sending this.

2 Batters, 1335 HRs

Great American Park, Cincy, Bonds in LF, batting 4th, Griffey in RF, batting 3rd.

Looking into Reds' dugout from our seats.

Papers said this was most HRs on field (2 players) since Aaron and Mays together in early 70s.

Barry lives up to the moment with line drive into center-right that looked so perfect that Junior did not move in RF.

I saw Aaron hit 754 back in the mid-70s at County stadium in Milwaukee, so that was a real treat. Only 6 HRs hit above 750 and now I've seen 2!

Griffey 1st AB.

Alas, flies to right.

Bonds walked on 4 pitches, top of 3rd, two on and no out.

Top of 5

One out and runner on second. Bonds intentionally walked!

Zito walked in 2 runs to tie game, but still has no-hitter going.

Reds grand slam to go 7-3.

Bonds finally out in 3rd AB with F-7.

Get your own foreign policy [updated]

ARTICLE: Peace Through PayPal?, By BETSY STARK, LARA SETRAKIAN and TERI WHITCRAFT, ABC News, June 5, 2007

Neat story that dovetails with my notion that everyone who wants to make a difference should just go ahead and get their own foreign policy and stop waiting on change from above.

Watching Steve DeAngelis work his stuff in Kurdistan makes this clear to me: Enterra makes its own Dept. Of Everything Else.

Thanks to Gunnar Peterson for sending this.

Update: Gunnar sends in a link to microfinance businesses in Africa.

Kissinger on Iraq

OP-ED: A political program to exit Iraq, By Henry A. Kissinger, Tribune Media Services, July 2, 2007

Not bad.

Especially like the Waltzian breakdown of internal/regional states/system of external powers.

Thanks to Kilngoddess for sending this.

Learn from the Brits

ARTICLE: Attempts Seen As Model for New Attacks On U.S. Soil, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, July 3, 2007; Page A01

Logical to watch anything that happens in UK as potential precursor to future threats against U.S.

Also smart to learn from Brits, who clearly have a long history of dealing with this stuff.

Is this our future? Eventually, we'll have to undergo some trial and tighten up on that basis--no question about it.

When the threat goes subnational, so too must the security.

That much has long been certain.

Africom could learn a lot from SouthCom

ARTICLE: A US military leader stresses ideas over firepower, By Gordon Lubold, The Christian Science Monitor, July 3, 2007

Stavridis is one of the smartest guys the Navy has, and Africom could learn a lot from his approach at SouthCom.

Nice summarizing article.

Thanks to Nathan Machula for sending this.

There are always limits

ARTICLE: Farmland to revert to forest in China's green plan, 30 June 2007, NewScientist.com news service

Right in line with my Ohio/Cincy Zoo post regarding Ohio's historic reforestation.

Simply put, there's always limits.

Thanks to Shiva Polefka for sending this.

Extrapolate from 1900 Ohio and Earth is dead

Ohio is 95 percent forested and still has some bison when it becomes a state in 1803. By 1900, the combination of ag and industry cuts forests down to 10 percent, and wildlife populations are decimated. By 2000, forests are back up to 30 percent coverage and certain forms of wildlife are back, some (like deer, beaver, etc) in large numbers.

My point: you extrapolate from 1900 and it's the end of all life. But once a certain saturation reached in development, people's values change.

Something to remember when we contemplate globalization moving ahead. There are numerous "curves" involved, many of which we've already traversed. Doesn't mean we know the answers, because history never repeats itself quite the same, but it does mean there's comparable experience to be tapped.

Sign is from Cincy Zoo, one of Newt Gingrich's favorites, as he told me last year.

The SysAdmin partner waiting to be co-opted

ARTICLE: China takes up civic work in Africa, By Danna Harman, Christian Science Monitor, June 27, 2007

That's why our SOF talks to China's SOF.

Thanks to Shiva Polefka for sending this in.

Tom around the web

It's the gift that just keeps on giving. The TED video:
+ hyperblog
+ The Pendulum
+ CargomasterRaster
+ xastamuj
+ The Amsterdam Post
+ Captain America's Blog

+ The Agonist linked (in criticism and got reprinted over on The Huffington Post) The Americans Have Landed.
+ So did Small Wars Journal Council.
+ So did Roguely Stated.

+ Dreaming 5GW hated the Peters article Tom linked in The fight is within religions.
+ Mackinlay's linked that post, too.

+ Opinio Juris linked I remember when globalization was doomed.
+ So did Colby File.

+ ZenPundit linked Best article yet on sullen Iranian majority right out of late Brezhnevian USSR.
+ Show Me the Code reviewed BFA.
+ Argghhh! linked Amphibs must be multi-purpose.
+ TPMCafe mentioned Tom's take on China.
+ Phil Windley linked The Gap will map itself.
+ John H. Brown of the USC Center on Public Diplomacy linked this week's column.

Timing is everything

ARTICLE: 'A President Besieged and Isolated, Yet at Ease: Bush, Grasping for Answers and Fixated on Iraq, Remains Resolute,' By Peter Baker, Washington Post, July 2, 2007; Page A01

This strikes me as awfully sad, these opening para:

At the nadir of his presidency, George W. Bush is looking for answers. One at a time or in small groups, he summons leading authors, historians, philosophers and theologians to the White House to join him in the search.

Over sodas and sparkling water, he asks his questions: What is the nature of good and evil in the post-Sept. 11 world? What lessons does history have for a president facing the turmoil I'm facing? How will history judge what we've done? Why does the rest of the world seem to hate America? Or is it just me they hate?

Almost six years after 9/11 and Bush is only getting around to asking these questions now?

As I've written many times: Bush was just fine for 9/11 and the immediate response. We didn't need the "thinker" then or the tortured soul afraid to act.

But by the national election of 2004, it was clear it was time to change. Bush had his limits and so did his crew. They were just not the gang to move things forward at that point.

Problem is, no one wanted to run on the Dem side, and so Kerry was the best of the bunch. Apparently, no one wanted to run his campaign either, so Bob Shrum was the best of the bunch. And so Bush squeaked by again and we get this disastrous second term.

Timing is everything.