Gaming the exit aftermath

ARTICLE: 'Exit Strategies: Would Iran Take Over Iraq? Would Al-Qaeda? The Debate About How and When to Leave Centers on What Might Happen After the U.S. Goes,' By Karen DeYoung and Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, July 17, 2007; Page A01

Tom knows Gary going back to 1990 when both worked on "From the Sea ..." and respects him a lot. This game and analysis dovetails nicely with what Tom thinks and has been saying about Iraq.

Comments

[Michael]

Why is Tom referring to himself in the third person? Is this related to the medical condition or aftermath thereof?

Get well soon.

[CitSAR]

And yet I am left to wonder; Given quickly rising tide of soldiers in the field stating the media is not telling the truth about what is going on and they are getting pissed about it, a weakening attempt by said media to refute this, the Democrats are becoming slightly unhinged with emotional "get out now" attempts, a number of Generals currently in theatre that are getting louder about "surge is working" and even stating "we may choose to increase boots on the ground sometime in the future" all while the President is continuing to remain "quiet".

Patton said, at least in the movie... "America will not tolerate a loser" but I bet it will support a winner. So, with the mid east looking like all war or all peace suddenly - I smell a stinkin "rope a dope" coming. Were I a Democrat or a Republican that is distancing him or herself right now, I would watch what I say or I may politically hang myself with my own words. Yes, I know its only hopeful thinking from a conservative, but I agree with the thought -The US military is slow to learn, but very, very fast to correct.

The idea we cannot prevail "in some way" is frankly - a bit stupid. It seems to me the future Dept of Everything Else hinges on COIN success and dies with COIN failure.

Just a feeling.

Rob

[Anonymous]

oops. wrong attribution. thanks, Michael. i fixed it

[Tom Barnett]

CitSAR,

I would agree. Hard to imagine a sustainable DoEE with an unwillingness to master and sustain counter-insurgency. But here I turn complete cynic, as I always have been on the subject, and say, it's not a matter of desire, but simply how much pain we'll end up taking before we don't like taking it any more.

Structurally, I don't see the problem going away. There I am with Robb. And I don't see China "rescuing" us with great power war.