The geo-pol argument on Russian-Iranian bond
Wednesday, March 21, 2012 at 12:02PM Nifty oped in WSJ Monday on Russia's "stake in Syria and Iran" by Melik Kaylan, a "writer in New York."
Usual case made on the old Sov-era naval base in Syria (snore), but more vigorous one made on Iran being sort of geo-strategic southern plug that keeps Russian influence substantial in the Central Asian republics - as in, lose Iran and the CA Reps "escape" with all their oil and gas ("southern bottleneck"), thus loosening Russia's energy grip on Europe, etc.:
Why is Iran so central to Mr. Putin's global pretensions? Take a look at the Caspian Sea are map and the strategic equations come into relief. Iran acts as a southern bottleneck to the geography of Central Asia. It could offer the West access to the region's resources that would bypass Russia. If Iran reverted to pro-Western alignment, the huge reserves of oil and gas landlocked in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and the like could flow directly out to the world without a veto from Moscow . . .
At stake here is not merely the liberation of a vast landmass from the Kremlin's yoke. The damage to Russian leverage would amount to a seismic shift in the global balance of power equal to the collapse of the Warsaw Pact.
Hmm. Had me going right up to that bit, but the argument is certainly compelling enough when you see just how much the emerging reality and future prospect of North America's energy export boom is already redrawing certain global energy market landscapes.
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Reader Comments (2)
Does this mean Putin will do everything he can to stop the collapse of syria and Iran? Some people speculate about this being the prelude to WW3. Is there anything realistic in this?
To what extent IS Iran the southern bottleneck claimed in the article? I looked it up in an atlas earlier today, and the shortest route between the former Soviet Muslim states and the Oceandoes indeed run from southwest Turkmenistan or southeast Azerbaijan to the coast of Khuzestan province in Iran. Problem is, there's a mountain range in the way, a road network that almost certainly needs upgrades and one or two restive provinces in the way. Throw in the recent trend of insane leaders in Turkmenistan- not a positive sign for channeling the whole region's exports- and the parlous state of every other country between them and the Indian Ocean and one wonders if their best alternative to Russian pipelines might not be a pipeline to China instead!