Leading indicator of India eventually surpassing China as globalization's factory floor
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 at 12:38PM 
Fabulous Economist story entitled, "India's Guangdong."
Short explanation from me b/c fighting ear infection:
Demographic dividend huge in India, and will stretch deep into mid-century. China's, by comparison, had heyday from 1980-2010 and now starts slow decline. China, for example, loses about 1/3 of labor entering workforce over next decade - decline finally set in motion by one-child policy. India surpasses China in labor around 2030, and has 50% more by 2050. SE Asia on similar trajectory.
All comes to say: China, as it moves up value chain (all those Foxconn robots!), exports jobs to India and SE Asia - inevitably. Good and bad thing for China, just like it's been good and bad for US last 30 years.
As I watch this, I keep saying to myself: where is the leading indicator of how India actually gets around to seriously industrializing?
That's why this article so cool: says Gujarat is the state to watch. It's India's Guangdong.
So stay tuned.
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Reader Comments (1)
The big problem for India will be overcoming the killer combination of corruption and stifling bureaucracy. Another part of India to watch is the area around Kolkata, which I understand used to be the 'factory of India'.