Leading indicator of India eventually surpassing China as globalization's factory floor
Wednesday, August 10, 2011 at 12:38PM
Thomas P.M. Barnett in China, Citation Post, India, global economy, globalization

Fabulous Economist story entitled, "India's Guangdong."

Short explanation from me b/c fighting ear infection:

Demographic dividend huge in India, and will stretch deep into mid-century.  China's, by comparison, had heyday from 1980-2010 and now starts slow decline.  China, for example, loses about 1/3 of labor entering workforce over next decade - decline finally set in motion by one-child policy.  India surpasses China in labor around 2030, and has 50% more by 2050.  SE Asia on similar trajectory.

All comes to say: China, as it moves up value chain (all those Foxconn robots!), exports jobs to India and SE Asia - inevitably.  Good and bad thing for China, just like it's been good and bad for US last 30 years.

As I watch this, I keep saying to myself: where is the leading indicator of how India actually gets around to seriously industrializing?

That's why this article so cool:  says Gujarat is the state to watch.  It's India's Guangdong.

So stay tuned.

Article originally appeared on Thomas P.M. Barnett (https://thomaspmbarnett.com/).
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