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Entries in global trends (66)

12:04AM

A glimpse inside one of the world's most important companies:  Cargill

From an FT "analysis" full-pager, some sense of Cargill's reach (corresponding to graphic above):

1. The world’s largest cocoa trader, Cargill also processes the beans into cocoa liquor, butter and powder, the raw materials for chocolate

2. The world’s largest sugar trader, Cargill buys from countries such as Brazil and selling to Egypt, India, China, Russia, Ukraine and others

3. Cargill is developing a business focused on replacing petrochemical-based plastic products with soya-based products

4. Cargill produces sterols, plant compounds that help cut cholesterol levels, used in orange juice and other products

5. Cargill merchandises cotton worldwide, buying and sell cotton in North America, Europe and Asia and operates cotton gins in Africa

6. Animal feeds are supplied by Cargill to commercial dairy farmers in 28 countries across North and South America, Europe and Asia

7. The world’s largest corn processor, Cargill handles about 20 per cent of the US crop

8. Cargill Pork is involved in pork production in the US and export

9. Cargill Kitchen Solutions is a leading marketer of high value, processed egg products in the US

10. From seasoning used in processed foods such as baked beans to the kind used on frozen roads, Cargill produces more than 1,000 types of salt

11. Through its subsidiary, The Mosaic Company, Cargill is a leading producer of fertilisers, supplying fruit and vegetable farmers around the world

12. Cargill’s grain and oilseed subsidiary trades grains and employs 15,000 people in 50 countries, operating 324 silos and 31 import-export termin

More basics:

A decade ago, after profits halved, the company set out to offer more than just bids and offers for the farmers and food companies it serves as middleman. Instead of counterparties, Cargill now calls them customers – people with whom, as one executive puts it, “we need to be more open, transparent and vulnerable”.

In many senses, Cargill is one of the hidden companies of the global economy. As the world’s agribusiness leader, it sits at the nexus of one of the world’s biggest and most critical industries – a force of great importance to millions of farmers as well as to large food multinationals from Nestlé to Coca-Cola andKraft, though it is much less well-known as a name. Its significance – as the equivalent of ExxonMobil for the agriculture markets – is set to increase further as food demand rises in China, India and in parts of the developing world, and the use of biofuels grows in the west.

Agriculture and the big food trading houses have been drawing increased attention from policymakers following the price spikes and supply uncertainties of the 2007-08 global food crisis, the first in more than 30 years. Food security, long a topic merely for agriculture ministers, is now hotly debated among leaders of the Group of Eightindustrialised countries.

Amid all this profound change surrounding its business, Cargill has had to do more than just alter its language. It has spent several years expanding down the supply chain from its large-volume, thin-profit business of trading bulk agriculture commodities – instead transforming some of the raw materials into ingredients it could sell at a premium.

In addition, the group is nowadays much more than a grain trader. An industrial side that mines salt, makes plastic from plants and includes a majority stake in Mosaic, the fertiliser company, provides a chunk of the profits. The company holds dozens of patents, including one recently granted for a process to prevent scrambled eggs from turning mushy.

Cargill didn't get here by accident.  After a weak earning year in the late 1990s, it launched its "farm to fork" vision to bring it exactly to this point by 2010--the best earning year in Cargill's 145-year history.

America's biggest private-owned company founded in 1865 with a single Iowa grain elevator, Cargill is now one of globalization's most crucial players as its vast middle class emerges and desires more caloric intake.  Per my "Great Powers" history of the US, it doesn't get much more emblematic than this.

You want to take about a globally integrated enterprise?  138k employees across 63 nations, the hallmark of their vision is, according to CEO Gregory Page, "end-to-end awareness connectivity"--as in, don't just see a supply chain but understand the everything else to which it is connected.

As in the past, Cargill has started by changing its language.  While previously it talked about internal collaboration, which had a voluntary aspect, today it speaks of connectivity.

Naturally, I admire that kind of thinking when it comes to globalization.

Great piece.  Worth reading.

12:02AM

Another sign of China's growing dependency of PG energy

Recently we hear that the Saudis now send more oil to China than to the U.S.  Now we discover that China will become Qatar's top gas buyer, if a new deal passes.  

Doesn't get much more symbolic than that.

Current dealmaking by Qatar also foresees big uptick in exports of gas to India.  Both deals will counter depressed demand from US and Europe.

12:05AM

You knew this was coming: NBC sitcom about Indian call center

Thursday night slot for show about a call center in India: "A comedy where cultural differences are a novelty."

Like the cheesehead, goes well with the sacred cow.

America, at its best, has always been a if-you-can't-beat-'em,join-'em mindset when it comes to economics. The first best step in revitalization is de-demonizing your competitors and learning from them in the process.

12:05AM

As DVDs decline, globalization comes to Hollywood's rescue

Conflicting messages from Variety and The Economist.

Variety points out that the great initial wave of DVDing the back catalogue (all those movies from the past) is winding down, especially as people move toward digital access and services like Netflix).

The pic in 2006 was about 2/3rds retail DVD, 1/5th DVD rentals and all the rest.  But by 2013, the all-the-rest will dominate to the tune of 2/3rds.  All-the-rest is online video, Pay-per-view & video-on-demand, DVD by mail, and rental and retail Blu-ray. 

Pretty big and fast shift in revenue sources, although one can argue that the generation shift from DVD to Blu-ray isn't really that profound as far as customer is concerned.  If you add up the rental and retails of DVDs and Blu-Rays in 2013, it's more like 3/4ths--so not such a huge drop from 2006.  Still, clear that digital access is rising as a model.

Meanwhile, the box-office revenue is doing great, off-setting the slight decline in domestic retail product sales ($27B in 2006 to predicted 25B in 2013, because the digital access involves a tighter margin).  Worldwide box office hit $30B last year, up 8% from 2008.  Domestic BO was only 1/3rd that total. 

So Hollywood, left to domestic sales only, would be a $35B-$37B business.  But add in overseas and you're talking a $55-57B business, meaning globalization works just fine for Hollywood.

12:08AM

The BO balance for Hollywood

Scanning the weekly BO report.

Of the 55 films listed, only 14 have bigger foreign BO than domestic, which isn't surprising, because the list is US-centric.

But the foreign-heavy numbers appear primarily in the tent-pole, or blockbuster films, such that, when you add up the total BO for all of the 55 films, the foreign revenue accounts for almost exactly 1/2 of total BO, or $4.4B out of $8.9B).

Those tent-poles films with higher international BO are:

  1. How to Train your Dragon
  2. Clash of the Titans
  3. Alice in Wonderland
  4. Avatar
  5. Percy Jackson and the . . . Thief
  6. Alvin . . The Squeakquel
  7. Sherlock Holmes.

In that septet, the foreign share is 66%.  That means their foreign audiences pay the bulk of the tab for the prestige films back here.

There are only 10 blockbusters (over $200M) listed.  Besides the 7 above, there's Shutter Island, Blind Side and Valentine's Day.  Only Blind Side is primarily US BO (85%). The other two are slightly US-heavy.  Blind Side is unlikely to do well overseas, because the football theme doesn't travel.

9:01AM

WPR's The New Rules: Keeping Disasters in Perspective

Between Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano and the oil slick in the Gulf, everybody seems to have disasters on the brain lately. Some of it stems from the nonstop global media coverage, while a good portion relates to our growing awareness of climate change. But a lot of this heightened anxiety is simply misplaced. We don’t live in an increasingly dangerous world, whether you’re talking wars, terrorism, disasters -- or just the weather.  In fact, we live in the safest times yet known to humanity. We just choose not to see it that way for a variety of reasons.

Read the rest of my column at World Politics Review.

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