The penultimate brief

Monday morning I caught a Delta flight out of the old Indy terminal for the last time. Flew through Atlanta to Fort Myers FLA, where I snapped that shot of the Gulf of Mexico last night after swimming in the lap pool of a nice resort in Naples. Then an elaborate AV check, complete with rehearsals of my intro and how I should approach the awards show-like stage while the music blared ("More than a feeling" by Boston). Then a nice dinner at a local restaurant with a senior exec of BAE Systems and a senior-level executive coach who works with the company. Great food right on the beach. Then I crashed.

Slept in yesterday a.m. til about 0900, then some room service and I finish editing my column for the week. Some phonecons and then I check out, deposit my bags with the AV production team, and take a seat for the opening two hours of this global meet of BAE senior execs, with people drawn from Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and so on. Big ballroom, with maybe 400-plus in attendance.

It is a slick show. The kind you see at this sort of level. Very moving videos of BAE's front-line work with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, and, of course, a lot of well-deserved bragging rights on MRAP (mine-resistant, ambush protected) vehicles and the company's deep embrace of the Wounded Warriors program.

I finally go on at 1520, powering up with a Coke and coffee. It's about 30 minutes later than I was supposed to go on, but backups are the norm, and so my countdown clock starts at 50 mins instead of the promised 60. I think I go about 54 mins, so it's a blistering pace at 29 slides. I was on, but the audience was very subdued. Some usual killer lines registered, by the ironic stuff died a quiet death. But with such a huge space like that, you try not to get caught up in how the audience reaction is being swallowed up, especially when you go on late in the afternoon (one could sense a bit of fatigue).

I'm off stage and de-miked by 1615, pack up quickly behind stage and then zoom out to the waiting limo, changing en route as the driver does his best to deliver me with a fighting chance of making the 1730 flight. I was smart (two times in a row!) to get my boarding passes printed, and hit security with no line. I forget a water bottle and so suffer a bag search, but it's not too bad. I then run maybe 75 yards til I spot the spillover line of passengers at the gate awaiting boarding (thank God we're connecting again through Atlanta!). I check my garment bag at the gate at 1715.

Bit of a layover at Hartsfield, where I dine responsibly (always hard at airports), and then onto to Iowa, where today I deliver the combined PNM-BFA brief for the last time this year and the last time ever.

I said read it!

ARTICLE: Upwardly Mobile, By David Talbot, Technology Review, November/December 2008

Neat piece talking about accessing that fortune at the bottom of the pyramid (Prahalad), and if you haven't read his book, please do so.

(Thanks: Neotrad Librarian)

Iran is more than oil

OP-ED: Sleepless in Tehran, By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, New York Times, October 28, 2008

Reasonable description from Friedman on Iran's increased vulnerability, but I am wary of the uni-causal explanation for the Soviet Union's fall (oil up and then down), because it takes a complex thing and turns it into an all-encompassing, single-point failure answer. So I am equally wary of thinking that lower oil prices afford us that much leverage with Iran. High oil prices alone don't explain all of Soviet behavior in the 1970s and lower prices don't explain all of it in the 1980s. It is simply a simplistic 20/20 hindsight that's been layered on in recent years, in part to give Reagan undue credit for the USSR's demise. But that's like saying that if you're there to help to pull the plug on the comatose patient, you're the real reason why he stopped being a virile, strong man, and that's--again--awfully simplistic.

We're not powerless with Iran when oil prices are high, nor do we hold some magic key when they're low. It's just more complex than that.

Iran is a real country with real interests in the region. It's also full of a young population hungry for connectivity with the world. You can't control both of those elements simply by turning the big knob called oil prices.

Regionalizing Afghanistan

ARTICLE: Obama to Explore New Approach in Afghanistan War, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, November 11, 2008; Page A01

Good signs from Obama team re: a rethink on Afghanistan. Good to see them not just waiting on word from CENTCOM's strategy review. I hate it when the civilian masters outsource their decision-making function wholly to the military--very anti-American in my mind.

Naturally, I welcome the "regional" approach. It's been the missing link in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Switch to fence-sitter on Gates possibility

POST: Bob Gates, Patriot, By Andrew Sullivan, The Daily Dish, 11 Nov 2008

If true, most welcome. I had heard down here in southern FLA that Gates had to answer affirmative to certain Obama questions of Iraq and the desired redirect on Afghanistan.

If the right answers were proffered, this is the best short-term solution, as I've often stated.

So switch me from unbeliever column to fence-sitter at least on the possibility.

Tom's article for World Politics Review

The Obama Presidency: A Grand Strategy Agenda

As far as foreign policy goes, Barack Obama comes to the presidency totally unburdened by his past (this is truly his first act in the international political theater) and unusually credentialed as a presumed agent of future change (e.g., his biracial background alone), so he's a relatively free agent, ideologically speaking.

That's a huge asset as he follows the highly ideological Bush-Cheney administration, because he encounters a world of labeled players, most of whom are eager to come in from whatever "cold" standing vis-a-vis the United States that their current designation implies. That doesn't mean these regimes necessarily seek our affinity but merely the cessation of our efforts to isolate them from globalization's networks. With a global recession in the works, everybody wants access to consumption demand -- the real power in the system -- and America's still got more of that than anybody else.

Read on

Name that body of water

Equivalent of 6pm EST.

Musical wanderings

DeAngelis, who turned me on to John Legend, prompted me to finally get Amy Winehouse's world-conquering "Back in Black." I knew of her two big hits off the album, but frankly the entire CD is stunningly good, especially the "Tears Dry On Their Own" collaboration with the long-time song-writing team (and couple) Ashford and Simpson.

Also listening to all the Coldplay albums now, and loving them all. Waited for years until they got a quartet. I like a critical mass, as a rule (broken with Winehouse), before diving in. I thought the band was fabulous on SNL with Jon Hamm (double winner for Vonne and I, who miss Mad Men desperately already.).

Europe steps up, but the U.S. not yet displaced

WEEK IN REVIEW: "Economic Puzzles: Suddenly, Europe Looks Pretty Smart," by Nelson D. Schwartz, New York Times, 19 October 2008.

OP-ED: "Not Quite Ready to Dump America," by Jim Hoagland, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 20-26 October 2008.

I write it in Great Powers: we are advantaged by having the European contrast to our "go fast/hard" model of globalization/markets—especially now.

So yeah, Europe suddenly looks smarter. Question is, what do they do with this moment?

Sarkozy, to me, has yet to impress. Brown, we always knew was smart. Now, he's turning out to be a real leader too. Merkel seems out of her depth: all sorts of cluck-clucking but where are the ideas?

Hoagland, back from a big global meet where Medvedev argued for a dump-America stock strategy, offers this analysis:

But as I listened to the freewheeling discussions, I wondered if the widespread obituaries being written for American power and all that it stands for might not turn out to be premature. I did not hear the deep questioning of the American model of capitalism that I expected at this moment of financial terror, and Medvedev's blatant attempt to drive wedges between Europe and the United States was effectively blunted by French President Nicholas Sarkozy.

Okay, kudos to Sarkozy

The end section to Hoagland's op-ed is a gem, reminding me of why he was my first great love as a columnist. Somewhat past his prime, Hoagland today is like watching Hank Aaron when he came back to the Brewers in the mid-1970s: you read for the privilege and—every once in a while—the guy swings for the fences, leaving you breathless.

This is one of them, so I type the whole damn thing out on a bumpy flight:

Music to the ears of an American participant. But for me the high point was listening to three democratically elected leaders from the developing world advise their Western peers not to give up on supporting democracy and market liberalization in their countries and everywhere else.

"Free elections are the only way out of crises" that would spark repression or chaos for dictatorial regimes, said Mongolian President Nambaryn Enkhbayar. His view was strongly echoed by Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

"Trade and investment are vital to Africa's ability to work its way out of today's economic mess," said Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade. "You in the North should be truly Keynesian about this crisis. Put your billions into investments in Southern Hemisphere countries to create real assets and jobs—not financial bubbles—and you will get the best returns possible."

And Saudi Arabia's Prince Turki al-Faisal—while warning that Western countries should not try to force-feed democracy to the kingdom—acknowledged that a country that refused to try any "of the dishes that democracy has to offer risks starving to death."

There was, to be sure, skepticism and anger in Evian over what Sarkozy called the excesses of "financial capitalism," which routed huge pools of savings away from the productive economy into the pursuit of unrealistic returns before slamming into the ditch.

But there was a solid consensus also for global oversight and regulation, not for a renunciation of the free market. Medvedev's Dump America message did not make much progress. What the world seems to await is better American leadership, not its elimination.

That, in a nutshell, is why I wrote Great Powers, after Neil Nyren at Putnam helped me see the need for that message right now.

SWFs to the resc----no, they're waiting for the right prices to surface this time

OP-ED: "The Great Iceland Meltdown," by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 19 October 2008.

ARTICLE: "Mideast and China Return to Scene With Investments in Financial Firms," by Chip Cummins and Peter Lattman, Wall Street Journal, 17 October 2008.

Friedman, when he's not getting too freaky-deaky over the seemingly damaged prospects for his Green Revolution (fret not, old boy!), is sounding a lot of realism on the future of globalization given this crisis—as in, not less globalization connectivity but one helluva more of it and damn fast.

Ah, for the clueless whiners who constantly bitch about Friedman (and sometimes me) and our "panglossian" view of globalization, as if a quarter century global boom hasn't been enough and we should all lose our minds because globalization, in its modern form, actually has the temerity to experience a downturn.

"My God man! I thought your entire vision was predicated on the notion that globalization would never hiccup whatsoever and all violence would be eliminated over night!"

Put down the bottle before you make an ass of yourself, young soul dripping with hubris.

My notion is that globalization's spread drives mass violence in a geographically predictable pattern, so I actually argue that globalization causes violence. Moreover, a key concept of mine is that tumult and network instability actually rises with globalization's spread, with each System Perturbation causing an influx of new rules.

So please, somebody point out where I predicted nothing but rising incomes all the time and no violence attached to that process.

Friedman, while more bullish, actually makes the same argument. Remember, this is the guy who coined the whole super-empowered individual concept.

In sum, the globalization is dead argument is only slightly more nonsensical than the capitalism is dead argument, but—by all means—run with it if it makes you happy in your willful ignorance. And if caricaturing the pro-globalization arguments gives you repose, then now's the time to indulge, because Friedman will be right on the super-globalization connectivity coming—faster than you think.

Less belligerently, I like to note how the Mideast and Chinese SWFs are returning to the action. Remember how much money the Arab ones in particular poured into Wall Street last year. Burned they were by the crash, so they've stayed on the sidelines while it's unfolded. Not because they no longer believe in globalization or capitalism or Western markets, but because they're looking for truly bargain-basement prices.

For now, the funds seem to be bottom-feeding along the margins—especially in Europe.

But again, Friedman's point is well taken, by those paying attention amid the glut and gloat of lesser analysis.

Sense and senselessness on the financial crisis

JUDGMENT CALLS: “Good Times Breed Bad Times,” by Robert J. Samuelson, Newsweek, 27 October 2008.

THE ECONOMY: “The End of Capitalism? Experts say free-market theories will prevail, but resentment is building over the U.S. brand,” by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 20-26 October 2008.

ARTICLE: “USA brand drops a spot, study says,” by Barbara De Lollis, USA Today, 7 November 2008.

Nice quote from always good Samuelson, who has a new book out:

We suffer cycles of self-delusion, sometimes too giddy and sometimes too glum. The next recovery usually lies in the ruins of the last recession.

Truer words rarely spoken nowadays, citing the tendency of academics, journalists, pundits, politicians and bloggers (the last just equaling additional a--holes with opinions, to put their newness in context).

So resentment against our brand builds, we are told, and America has dropped a notch lower than last year in global brand ranks (now we’re behind both Australia and Canada—hardly an “ouch!” since they’re knock-offs of the same original brand from which we sprang).

Yes, we will be tagged with too-loose capital flows, but the problem is located more in the inter-market realm than merely inside Wall Street: questionable instruments were sold to those without the knowledge and capability to judge them. Now, these other markets were dumb enough to take them, and we can’t fix that, but some sort of global SEC that becomes a repository of transparency rules seems inevitable as a result.

To me, that’s a big part of any Bretton Woods II.

More on what went right in Iraq

POST: Inside the Surge: 1-5 Cavalry in Ameriyah, by Lieutenant Colonel Dale Kuehl, Small Wars Journal, October 26, 2008

In our never-ending quest to understand what went right in Iraq with the surge, this is worth perusing.

No gloating in Beijing over this mess

OP-ED: “A Bailout Beijing Would Cheer,” by David Ignatius, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 20-26 October 2008.

ASIA: “Asia and the crisis: Here we go again; The world’s financial meltdown stirs uneasy memories across Asia,” The Economist, 18 October 2008.

ARTICLE: “Their Own Worst Enemy,” by James Fallows, The Atlantic, November 2008.

A bit much from Ignatius: “We are all Chinese now.”

Puh-leeze!

Hamilton isn’t spinning in his grave; Mao is.

Public-private partnerships may be “Confucian,” as Ignatius points out, but they are also very American. Go back and read your early history on how infrastructure got built in our new republic.

Cool part of op-ed is Ignatius describing what some have already dubbed, Bretton-Woods II, or the structural imbalance whereby Asian economies go surplus and we go deficit and they recycle through our bonds and T-bills.

For a long time I have called this “exporting security,” and the outsourcing of global security from Asia to the U.S. (along with Europe). Another way you can describe it is to say we’ve run an implicit Marshall Plan for rising Asia in the post-Cold War era: we consume our way to their rapid development.

Now, whatever you want to call it, that course has been run and we need to re-calibrate.

Thus the good timing for Great Powers.

I do want to see Ignatius’ movie, though: Crowe + DeCaprio + Ridley is—to me—just about perfect. I was sorry to see it do poorly in theaters, but the timing was bad.

No, I don’t expect Asia to step up as quickly as it should at this economic summit. There’s just too much fear left over from the Asian Flu, as the Economist points out.

It’s one of the reasons why China keeps underselling itself, as Fallows argues. That word came down from Deng himself when that whole revolution began.

Dream on WRT SECDEF Gates

ARTICLE: “In Gates We Trust: The ideal Pentagon boss is already on the job,” by Nancy Soderberg and Brian Katulis, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 20-26 October 2008.

One of many recent articles fantasizing about Gates, who allegedly carries countdown clock in his briefcase detailing the minutes 'til the end of the administration.

Too bad, because in response to Shelton question today, I said that the number one thing I’d demand with a new Obama administration is to keep Gates two more years, because that’s enough, I think, to lock in the SysAdmin’s emergence vis-à-vis the Leviathan’s committed resistance. 24 more months of Gates cracking the whip and then Petraeus coming home to roost (another demand of mine) would seal the Green-v-Blue struggle in the former’s favor.

Back-up?

Hagel.

Hagel, in my mind, is way too rough for State, and since Lugar’s out of consideration (his call—smart), then I say Kerry for State (we’ve had his careful foreign policy for the last two Bush years anyway, so sensible continuity with more brains and gravitas than Rice) and Hagel in the Pentagon, where his ground-pounder sensibility will be more than enough to keep things real.

Let's graduate from strategic children

ARTICLE: Russian navy: sub accident kills more than 20, By STEVE GUTTERMAN, AP, November 8, 2008

Reminds us of how far the old Soviet military continues to fall.

This is why this idiotic conundrum we've achieved in Eastern Europe is a complete waste of Obama's time.

Now we're told that we can't give in to Russian pressure over Bush's stupidity in sticking missile defense in Poland to protect it from Iran.

Isn't is wonderful to have your military-industrial-complex's greed sanctified by Russia's stupid leaders? Talk about the tail wagging the dog.

Such is the state of America's strategy. Osama tells us where "central fronts" are. Ahmadinejad jerks our chain regularly. And now the puppet Medvedev gets to declare our strategic interests for us.

Wouldn't it be nice to actually think for ourselves for once instead of being told by our enemies and general fools what matters to us?

Enough of the neocon childishness. Bring on the adults.

Column 127

What Bush- Cheney got right with China

Barack Obama's victory presents to America a wonderful opportunity to redefine our engagement with the world's rising great powers.

Along those lines, it's worthwhile to remember what Bush-Cheney got right with China.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Hugh Shelton is a towering figure!

Seriously, even with a bum knee, the guy looks down on me like few people I meet.

Flew through Charlotte (free wifi there, as all airports should offer) yesterday afternoon, after penning piece for World Politics Review online quick post-election "issue" that will post next Monday. Production continues on my my next-issue pieces in both Good and Esquire.

Somebody out there has to remind me of some German pub that wants a small piece from me sometime in early Nov. I remember it vaguely ...

Anyway, fly USAIR through Charlotte, missing the connection, so show up late for dinner of Hugh Shelton Leadership Center's board of directors at Sheraton in downtown Raleigh, where my speech the next day is sponsored by Oak Ridge National Lab and old comrade of Shelton's, Frank Akers (my original boss at ORNL in my consulting gig and still minister-mentor of sorts there). Nice to see Frank again, and honor to meet General Shelton and his wife and sort of share the meal (I was starving, showed up late, got served, and then ceremonies launched at podium right behind me so I had to sit and stare at my food for about 45 minutes, which for me, is like putting down a dog bowl and then asking Fido to "sit!," but it reinforced my pre-tour diet a bit [down five pounds already], so that helped, I guess).

After dinner I worked out and listened to my iPod (son's old one that I'm loving and stocking with all my favorite albums) and then prepped for next day and crashed, watching some "Family Guy" (an addiction I picked up in RI--quite aptly).

Up at 0700 and down for breakfast at hotel, then taken by MC of day's forum to local convention center, along with Shelton and his missus. Set up and get the AV down right. Then show begins 0815 with opening comments, intro of Shelton (Chairman, Joints Chiefs of Staff second Clinton admin and a bit into Bush), and then he intros me and takes a seat on stage. I operate off the floor, covering about 60 or so yards of cumulative territory (I love going way up aisles, cause it really catches people) and give a truly kick-ass performance. I have no idea why. Allergies have abated quite a bit, but I just felt on in a big way. Of course, a crowd of somewhere in the vicinity of a thousand is a good reason. Bigger the crowd, bigger the pump.

Go almost exactly one hour and then do about 20 Q&A with Shelton making first question. I'm even hotter in the Q&A, which is really odd for me, because usually the delivery breaks down quite a bit then. But again, for some reason, I was OOOOOON!

Anyway, Shelton and Akers and loads of audience seem very happy, so the customer happy.

Nice personal, UNC-Shelton Leadership Center coin from the general.

I gotta tell Steve that Enterra needs its own coin.

As always, lots of young people coming up afterwards asking how they can join Enterra, once they've heard the Development-in-a-Box™ pitch. This I like a lot.

Two flights home and down to the movie theater with the kids. Break earned.

Chivers' account on start of Russian-Georgian war finally emerges

ARTICLE: "Accounts Undercut Claims By Georgia On Russia War: Independent Military Observers Described Wide Shelling in Enclave's Capital," by C.J. Chivers and Ellen Barry, New York Times, 7 November 2008.

About time.

Read it and learn some truth amidst all the BS fed us.

The state-within-the-state that flexes a bit of muscle: all hail the Puntland military!

ARTICLE: "Somali soldiers capture ship from pirates," by Associated Press, USA Today, 15 October 2008.

INTERNATIONAL: "With Spotlight on Pirates, Somalis on Land Waste Away in the Shadows; Millions Hungry As War Drags On," by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 11 October 2008.

Soldiers from "Somalia," we are told, freed one of cargo ships captured by pirates off its coast.

Now, the article doesn't exactly say whose soldiers were involved (and I'm too lazy to engage in serious research on the subject, so I welcome corrections), but right after giving the blow-by-blows, the article then quotes "Puntland's foreign minister" in saying that his "ragtag coast guard can fight pirates" all right.

Excuuuuse me!

Puntland has a foreign minister, like Florida does?

What the hell. The pirates got their own spokesman ("Aaaargh! I said we'd be releasing those mateys on our own good time, see!), so why shouldn't a state-within-a-fake-state have one, too?

Mark my words: many Somalias to emerge eventually.

Meanwhile, of course, millions subject to starving in a libertarian--or is it libertine's?—paradise.

Aaaarrrgh, indeed.

Finally, the promise keepers arrive

ARTICLE: "Obama Victory Alters the Tenor Of Iraqi Politics," by Alissa J. Rubin, New York Times, 7 November 2008.

Iraqi Shiite politicians indicate they are willing to move much faster on on security agreement, now that Obama elected.

Why?

Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party[, said] “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”