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Monthly Archives

Entries from November 1, 2008 - November 30, 2008

1:56AM

We're number one--with a bullet!

USA TODAY SNAPSHOTS: "Countries with high gun ownership rates," by Anne R. Carey and Alejandro Gonzalez [source is Swiss "2007 Small Arms Survey"], 28 October 2008.

Fear not, gun-owners: Obama can't possibly bring us down enough to lose our number-one global ranking.

Here's the top five: US at 89 small arms per 100 people, Yemen at 55 (a gun-&-knife-toting culture without peer in the uncivilized world, but we still kicks their asses!), Switzerland at 46 (who knew?), Finland at 45 (still expecting the Russians), and Serbia at 38 (just got in the habit, I guess).

When I tell you nobody--and I mean NOBODY--digs and glorifies violence more than Americans, I'm not kidding.

We are the first-person-shooting superpower!

1:51AM

More than three nations in Iraq?

POST: An Initiative to Create the Federal Region of Basra Is Launched, By Reidar Visser, EUROPEAN TURKMEN FRIENDSHIPS, 11 November 2008

Interesting, given Enterra's southward movement with Development-in-a-Box‚Ñ¢.

Reminds me of that "I-can-cut-a-better-deal-on-my-own" mentality.

In the end, Biden was more than right. He just underestimated the number.

(Thanks: Critt Jarvis)

2:06AM

My wife would thank this man

OP-ED: "All Apologies: Working backward in a rude world," by Henry Alford, New York Times 10 November 2008

Wonderful op-ed about a guy sick and tired about the lack of politeness in this world--to wit, the inability of so many people to say "I'm sorry" when it's entirely appropriate to do so.

So he goes around making those apologies for people, confounding them in the process.

As he explains to one woman who smacks him with her stroller:

"No one says I'm sorry anymore, so I do it for them."

"O.K."

"My idea is that if I say I'm sorry, then at least the words have been released into the universe."

She stared at me with equal parts irritation and faint horror, as if I had just asked her to attend a three-hour lecture on the history of the leotard.

I continued: "The apology gets said, even if it's not by the right person. It makes me feel better. And maybe you'll know what to say next time."

"Wow," she said.

And then, finally, came the words I have longed these many months to hear: "I'll think about that."

My wife is like this guy, without the snark . She simply believes in politeness.

I, having been raised in a family where such words were rarely used, am usually reduced to the "wow."

What kills me is that Vonne's willingness to remain polite, even under the rudest conditions, is often seen as a sign of weakness, when actually, there is a glorious, Christ-like strength to be witnessed in such moments.

2:03AM

A relief to have learned something

ARTICLE: Pakistan reopens Khyber crossing to NATO convoys, By Bill Roggio, November 17, 2008

We now re/learn a whole new geography for another long slog.

What makes me feel better this go-around: our learning curve in Iraq changes everything; we seem to be acting sensibly with the Pakistanis, understanding their difficulties; we're going to tackle this one more regionally, so dialogue with Iran; and if we can further internationalize the force (like with China), then we really start using this situation as a great powers learning environment.

I expect many ups and downs, and I'll let the COIN high priests argue the tactics, but this all feels so much more sensible and realistic that the first iteration--either here or in Iraq.

And I like it when we learn and move on.

1:23AM

Japan sees an opening in the financial crisis

ARTICLE: "In Finance, Japan Sees An Opening," by Martin Fackler, New York Times, 21 October 2008.

WORLD NEWS: "China Appears to Join Europe In Call for Overhaul of Rules," by Ian Johnson, Wall Street Journal, 27 October 2008.

A CRISIS IN FINANCE: "U.S. Does Not Support A Global Crisis Regulator: Likely Isue at a Financial Summit Meeting," by Mark Landler, New York Times, 6 November 2008.

Now that the sextet of America's world-dominating investment banks have been crushed by the subprime crisis, Japan's leaders "say they believe their country should take a more active role in economic leadership" globally. Europe is too busy crowing, but Japan worries more about filling the leadership void, so says Fackler.

While smart Western observers like Sebastian Mallaby dream of a Bretton Woods II deal at the upcoming summit, it's starting to look like the last time Bush-Cheney get to stand up--rather isolated yet again--against the rest of the Core regarding the rule-set reset that others demand but from which our White House seems determined to shy away.

China, always looking to follow, comes out with a bold call for "what they said," pointing at the EU pillars.

As serious System Perturbations go, this one disappoints for now, but it probably makes sense to view this summit as simply the Bush administration's swan song.

I hope to be proven wrong, but expect me to snore through the say-everything-but-do-nothing proceedings. Probably just a practice session for the real deal with Obama.

But mark my words: eventually the global SEC is a must. The Core as a whole simply has to get its collective arms around what's happening in terms of inter-market financial flows, and such an institution is where those new rules will inevitably reside.

1:19AM

The second law of petro politics: disregard Friedman's "first law" outside of bubbles

ARTICLE: "3 Oil Countries Face a Reckoning: Fall in Prices Threatens Big Political Visions," By SIMON ROMERO, MICHAEL SLACKMAN and CLIFFORD J. LEVY New York Times, 21 October 2008.

Doesn't negate Friedman's first law, but rather bounds it a bit.

So now all but the die-hard hardliners should responsibly dial-down the "axis of diesel" rhetoric. Yergin calls it a "reverse oil shock."

Ask OPEC's mainstays how they liked the 1980s. Yes, Reagan fans will say he engineered the whole thing with the House of Saud to topple the USSR, but that's a bit much. No one can mandate a price collapse like that. That's simple market dynamics beyond everyone's control but subject to a universe of actors responding to price prompts.

Iran and Venezuela, with populist presidents who promise much and deliver seed corn-munching social agendas, now suffer magnificent bouts of inflation. But don't expect these Monty Python Black Knights to notice their lost limbs any time soon. These guys will go on blustering for a while, even as the "flesh wounds" build up.

Russia is a bit more self-aware, but not much. A captive consumer base on natural gas helps.

1:13AM

The 19-year-old female just off the farm--driver of industrialization everywhere

BOOKS OF THE TIMES: "Dynamic Young Engines Driving China's Epic Boom: Factory Girls: From Village to City in a Changing China, by Leslie T. Chang," by Howard W. French, New York Times, 22 October 2008.

The respectable treatment of an otherwise obscure book alerts me to the fact that Chang has got to be a fellow newspaper journalist. Sure enough, she used to write for the WSJ.

Obscure or not, it's a very cool topic, historically speaking. As I've long argued in the brief, there is no more welcome sign of industrialization-leading-to-the-globalization of an economy than a surfeit of 19-year-old females just off the farm and streaming into the city looking for factory jobs. Go back to New England after our Civil War, and this wave signals the rise of the textile industry in Fall River and other places. I did plenty of city-planning strategic consulting for Fall River's city fathers a few years back, so I know this history well, especially since all the old textile mill buildings still stand just off the interstate that passes through the city (toward Providence going north and toward the Mall coastline peninsula (my God, the name escapes me somehow, but you know, Martha's Vineyard, the Kennedy compound and all that).

Accurately described by Chang as the "largest migration in human history," this flow continues in aggregate even as the supply of 19-year-old females willing to work for damn-near nothing along the coast is thinning dramatically, by some accounts.

The coolest reference in the review:

China is locked in a Dale Carnegie era, with bookstore shelves dominated by titles purporting to explain how to gain a leg up. In Dongguan the self-improvement business that caters to the female factory worker has achieved industrial dimensions, with night schools on every street corner.

Girl is moving up all right--part of the promise and peril of what comes next for China.

2:14PM

Rebuilding code

Working on making this new comment registration really work. Thanks for the emails. I know it's broken. Stand by.

12:44PM

Article to go with today's column

ARTICLE: Shipper: Militaries must confront pirates, AP, Nov. 21, 2008

Today's column (in case you missed it).

11:08AM

And we're back

Ok, DNS changes have propagated. Everything appears as it should be. If you see something that doesn't look right, please let me know.

Something new: I am requiring registration to comment, now that we have Movable Type 4. There are a couple good services you can go with, including just registering with our own site. This will help me a lot with comment moderation. As above, let me know if there are any problems with it.

6:37AM

Siterep

In the process of switching to a new host today, so shutting down all comments and posting in the meantime. Everything should be seamless for you, with all the same links, once we get changed over.

Be sure to check out Tom's column (below). Posted it early in case we're not ready to roll by tomorrow morning.

6:35AM

Column 129

Fight the pirates

When piracy threatens global commerce, great powers need to fight back --collectively.

Nothing better signals the lack of -- and thus opportunity for -- comprehensive maritime security cooperation among the world's great powers than their collective inability to stem piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Persian Gulf, not to mention the Straits of Malacca -- chokepoint for Asia's energy imports from the Middle East. Add it all up and we're talking $15 billion of losses every year.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

3:59AM

Disappointing NIC report

ARTICLE:
US global dominance 'set to wane'
, BBC, 21 November 2008

REPORT: GLOBAL TRENDS 2025: THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S 2025 PROJECT, NIC, November 2008

Disappointing to see the NIC default to resource wars as a generalized bit of futures fear-mongering. It's just so unimaginative and reflects the NIC talking to a lot of stale academics who trot out their analogies to 19th-century colonialism and balance-of-power politics while completely discounting the profound economic--and especially financial--interdependence (the latter currently on display big time).

Not very helpful in terms of preparing people for the real dynamics ahead.

(Thanks: David Blair)

3:13AM

Nice piece of analysis from Heritage

WEBMEMO #1709: Productivity Growth, Not Trade, Is Cutting Manufacturing Jobs, by Ambassador Terry Miller, Heritage, November 27, 2007

Worth reading for its counterintuitive sensibility in this current age of irrational fears re: globalization.

(Thanks: ROVER Fixer

3:06AM

Iraq victory approximation

AFTER ACTION REPORT: VISIT IRAQ AND KUWAIT 31 OCTOBER - 6 NOVEMBER 2008, By General Barry R. McCaffrey USA (Ret), November 4, 2008

The latest from McCaffrey on Iraq. Note that it's addressed to Col Michael Meese, son of Reagan's AG, who served famously in Petraeus' brain trust during the surge and now wields his considerable influence as a new thinker at West Point. He was kind enough to send me a copy of On Point II after our F2F there last spring.

Of special interest to me is the definition of the "howevers" under the economy header. This is where Steve and I think Development-in-a-Box can have a lot of good impact once translated southward.

As tentative as this all feels, this is as close as it may come to a definition of "victory" in Iraq--as wholly inappropriate as that term may be.

2:44PM

For now, Obama's picks strike me as encouraging

Geithner is the Summers' protege, so a pick that's a nod to experience plus a nod to the current crisis, where Geithner gained his greatest national prominence yet.

The AZ gov (Napolitano) as homeland seems solid enough: outsider, from the front lines, female to boot.

Holder is a solid choice, yielding the first African-American AG. If you're going to pull off any additional "first" of this sort, that's about the coolest, most symbolic place to do it. I always liked Holder under Clinton. He seems very much in no-drama-Obama mold.

Daschle at HHS is a good payoff to his mentor and a solid pick in its own right. His stature from the Senate will prove helpful.

Finally, Hillary is a good pick at State, co-opting the Clintonian goodwill globally right where it can best be put to use. Whether Bill's detractors want to admit it or not, he's arguably the most admired past leader in the world today, other than Mandela. Hillary's now a much admired figure in her own right, so why not put all that to use while limiting any options she might still entertain for 2012? Having voted for both of them (Hillary in Indiana's primary, where she squeaked out a win, Obama in the general election where we tipped this place blue!), it is exciting (and a testament to Obama's self-confidence) to see them both together. In the end, this is a much cooler outcome than her being Veep (and I feel more comfortable with Biden as the trusty back-up). With Hillary at State, we might have our first strong SECSTATE since Baker, and here I agree with Gergen: we are likely to be surprised by how well they work together, so I think Thomas Friedman's fears, while reasonable, are unlikely to be met.

Plus, with Jones (a figuratively and literally towering figure) at national security adviser, I see the strongest, most credentialed player in that post since Kissinger-the-realized. I don't see him taking that job only to be as weak a coordinator as Rice and Hadley, meaning it won't be years until solutions like the Iraq surge are finally allowed to emerge (Seriously, how can you take those two seriously in the post when both expressed such awe at Bush's intellect? I would never want anyone in that gatekeeper role who held my intellect in awe--just a bad idea.). I would also expect him to work well with Petraeus.

With Hillary at State, then the pressure builds for a non-Dem at the Pentagon, so more desire, I suppose, to get Gates to stay (Although he's really an independent, isn't he? But I guess he counts as a holdover). If he does, then many assume Danzig preps as his deputy and then moves up.

In the end then, none of my early favorites seem to emerge, but I'm not disappointed. Parlor games are fun, but I like to be surprised by bolder picks (mine tend to be safer, duller ones). I mean, I hired the guy and when I hire people, I like to see them grab the job by the horns and make it their own. And in each instance here, I find myself feeling better and not worse about the choice, which you just can't predict beforehand.

All in all, I take a lot of encouragement from these choices. Obama is trying to satisfy in a lot of different directions, and I think it's a good mix to date. They reflect a true CEO mindset that wants very strong subordinates, and I like a cabinet for America right now that reflects too much agenda and too much leadership rather than too little in either category.

I don't want an America that simply accommodates or surrenders to presumed trends. I want an America that leads as it always has, but does so in a smarter fashion.

And I see such possibilities here . . .

2:24AM

The expected penalty on the milk scandal

U.S. NEWS: “U.S. Restricts China Milk Products: FDA Forces Importers to Prove Shipments Contain No Melamine After Positive Tests,” by Jane Zhane and Alicia Mundy, Wall Street Journal, 14 November 2008.

The U.S. is the second biggest export market of Chinese food and beverages, after Japan and just about HK, South Korea and Russia.

Now, as a result of the scandal (oh so 1850s America, as I noted in a previous post), we now demand the Chinese prove they can reach some sort of product safe harbor.

Upshot? Our FDA now to open three offices in Chinese cities.

Connectivity drives code, and opens offices.

2:22AM

FDR to Obama: don‚Äôt go light on the stimulus

OP-ED: “Franklin Delano Obama? Drawing the right lessons from the New Deal,” by Paul Krugman, New York Times, 10 November 2008.

Interesting piece by Krugman, who seems simultaneously calmed by his Nobel and Bush’s imminent departure.

Argument: FDR didn’t fail early on with the Great Depression from making too big of a stimulus effort but far too little.

Pretty compelling.

2:19AM

Welch advises Obama on picking people

THE WELCH WAY: “Team Building: Wrong and Right; The President-elect must avoid the same hiring hazards that face any new CEO,” by Jack and Suzy Welch, BusinessWeek, 24 November 2008.

There is always the feeding frenzy when a new president takes office, especially if the break for the party in question is 8 years or more. You have this entire universe of super-talented, ambitious and supremely focused players who’ve gone into the exile of think tanks for the long winter, cranking all manner of—admittedly—pretty dull books (you want to say careful things) and attending conference after conference to network like crazy, and never turning down any commissions or what not. So when the floodgates open, it’s not pretty. I mean, you’re talking about true addicts to power—as in, people who’ve organized their entire lives around these moments of possibility.

Trust me, the DC area is a hard place to live and raise a family. The people who put in the years on that one truly have sacrificed for the chance/cause, because it is an environment that's almost completely charmless and full of daily tension.

So yeah, it gets intense! For a lot of these people, this swing at the bat may not come around again for a very long time, and there’s the need to feel like any job you take is better than the one you had last time, so emotions and ego run very high. As one pundit on TV put it recently, for any top job, there’s at least 10 people who’ve crafted their entire career for this moment, and nine of them will go away very unhappy. So the discipline required on the part of the Obama team will be vast, testing its very structure of rule.

Welch & the Missus offer three simple rules:

1) do not automatically reward loyalists

2) do not hire people who need the work or lust for the prestige of being on your team

3) do not focus all your attention on crisis hires

Good advice, but hard to follow.

2:15AM

"Flight 93" versus "United 93"

I really liked the Greengrass film, as did most critics in 2006. Greengrass has a realistic quality to his cinematography that is truly compelling (and it's why the second and third "Bourne" films outperformed the original).

Last night Vonne and I finally got around to watching the TV film "Flight 93."

The difference?

I found the movie a lot more frightening, but the TV film a lot more sad, because the latter really focused on the families more.

They are both quintessential American films, though, as they seek out and celebrate the best part of an otherwise horrific day: the notion that ordinary Americans could figure out what was going on and thwart a complex plot years in the making, doing so in a matter of minutes and with the same suicidal sacrifice as the allegedly "superior" warriors we face.