Visiting the land of Thompson

Spoke this morning at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, giving them my new "State of the World" brief because I've already given them the bulk of the existing PNM/BFA/Vol. III preview brief. I had my PPTmaster, Bradd Hayes, throw together a slide per issue, pirating the cool graphics Esquire generated for the piece.

To my surprise, it's a really fun brief to give--basically a tour d'horizon of current issues and affairs.

I also gave them a short brief on the rise of AFRICOM.

Lots of questions, naturally, on the presidential field. Since I'm in east Tennessee, I don't field too many questions on Dems, but rather get a strong sense of the ambivalence a lot of Republicans have about the current field. No one seems to be excited about McCain, and no one counters when you talk about him inevitably torpedoing. Hagel seems distant for now. Giuliani is respected, but the social issues rule out the support of so many here. Romney is liked, but there's a similar feeling of unelectability.

So, because this is Tennessee, and a very politically-connected environment (you don't get to be Oak Ridge National Laboratory by having your head up your youknowwhat on DC politics), you hear a lot about Fred Thompson, and his much-anticipated decision to join the field--forthcoming within days by all accounts (get out that red pickup, Fred!).

How is this potential presidency defined, speculatively at this point? Connected people here say it will be very Reagan-like in form and function: Thompson is no micro-manager but chief communicator who would attract a lot of sensible talent. Like Reagan, he'd talk a lot of social conservatism but would be more moderate in actual action.

Would a Reagan-like GOP presidency, absent the Cold War ideology and the anti-DC mandate, be just what we need?

Mebbe, mebbe not.

But Thompson will definitely spice up the GOP field considerably, continuing to make this election the most interesting of my adult life.

Resilience in a frontier age

Wrote my column this week on Robb's "Brave New War."

I doubt I can sell more of his books than Brooks did, but I think I wrote a better column.

I titled it, "I wuz Robbed!"

;-)

Quick, call in the Minutemen!

California fruit and vegetable growers lament that a record crop may well go partially unharvested because of crackdowns on illegal workers.

I fully expect patriotic Americans everywhere to rush to California's ag fields in this moment of national crisis ... NOT!

Why don't growers simply jack up wages enough to attract legal citizens?

They don't think consumers will pick up the tab, instead simply buying cheaper imports.

Cursed globalization! Damned if you harvest and damned if you don't.

Beware Pandas?

Got this email:

Have you seen the cover of the Economist (North American) this week?

Have not seen many images more appropriate for this blog.

Timothy Jiggens

Tom says he's reading it now and it's a funny cover.

Now here's a reader who's truly pissed off!

Tom got this email:

Subject: Your bankrupt command of the English language

Dear Sir,

Some time ago, I think shortly after it was published, I bought your book "The Pentagon's New Map".

I was enjoying it and respected your ideas until I got to page 174 and was astonished to find you using the crude phrase "pissing off"

I was utterly incensed and disgusted to find, in what I had assumed to be an intelligent book written by a professional, such gutter language. There is a place for such language but not in a book such as this for which I paid good money.

In my whole life of reading hundreds of intelligent books I have never encountered such unprofessional language.

Are you not capable of expressing yourself on a normal level?

Your book should have had a prominent warning "contains offensive language" so that intelligent people could avoid it.

I have completely lost all respect for your ideas and yourself and propose to read no further but throw your book in the trash where it and your ideas belong.

It has taken this long for my disgust to die down sufficiently to allow me to write calmly to you.

Yours in despair,

Neil in California

Tom says:

That is the silliest feedback I have ever received, but thanks anyway.

Another customer served ...

My first time in Omaha

Kicked off the "Fighting 55th" Air Wing inaugural symposium on ISR ("Leading the Fight: Airborne ISR in 2025"). DEPSECDEF Gordon England closes it, with SECAF Michael Wynne in between. I was immediately followed by old friend David Gordon, now Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council (he goes back to both the Y2K project and the NewRuleSets.Project with Cantor Fitzgerald); we talked together through the reception last night and had breakfast this morning (I telling him of Enterra's Development-in-a-Box work in Kurdistan and he describing his very intense work sked on Iraq and Afghanistan--and yes, I take off my journalist/columnist hat for such discussions).

As usual, I spent less than 24 hours here in Omaha (roughly 18), but it was enjoyable and the interaction with officers was very good).

Just connect the dots

OP-ED: "After the Surge: The Administration Floats Ideas for a New Approach in Iraq," By David Ignatius, May 22, 2007; Page A15

Bingo!

This fits what I've been predicting in the brief for months (also stated in "State of the World"):

Iraq: The Quagmire

... Following our last best effort on the "surge," the inevitable U.S. drawdown--and "drawback" from combat roles--will look like Vietnam in reverse: We shift from direct action to advising locals ...

There is no "Iraq" any more than there was a "Yugoslavia," so America will have to accept this Humpty Dumpty outcome for what it is: a Balkans done backward.

Not rocket science to predict, just horizontal thinking that connects the dots temporally.

Religion inside America gets more Gappish in its orientation

ARTICLE: "Emphasis Shifts For New Breed Of Evangelicals," by Michael Luo and Laurie Goodman, New York Times, 21 May 2007, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "Hispanics Bring Catholicism to Its Feet: The Church offers livelier services for a growing constituency of charismatics," by Anthony Faiola, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 21-27 2007, p. 35.

Swap out Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson for Rick Warren and Joel Osteen (not covered here) and you see evangelicals shifting from the myopic Core focus of gay marriages and abortion to more Gap-heavy issues like AIDS, Darfur and global warming.

A twenty-year effect in the making, says one expert, predicting that the non-partisan, non-political nature of this new wave will inevitably become more policy-focused (though not necessarily political and partisan).

I think this shift is great, and it bears long-term watching.

Ditto for Hispanics enlivening Catholic masses, which I personally dislike but everyone else in my family would welcome.

Me? I probably have to go Buddhist at that point. I want it quiet, with humming and incense and maybe some yoga, but that's it.

The best op-ed on Iraq I think I've ever read [updated]

ARTICLE: "The Left's Iraq Muddle," by Bob Kerrey, Wall Street Journal, 22 May 2007, p. A15.

Simply brilliant. Buy the paper and clip it.

Best part:

The critics who bother me most are those who ordinarily would not be on the side of dictatorships, who today are arguing that only military intervention can prevent the genocide of Darfur, or who argued yesterday for military intervention in Bosnia, Somalia and Rwanda to ease sectarian violence that was tearing those places apart.

Then he makes a devastating point: suppose we don't topple Saddam but he falls to internal foes, triggering the same sectarian fights and al Qaeda penetration. Would we not see reason to intervene for humanitarian and counter-terrorism reasons?

Of course we would.

And if the Dems can't own up to that reality, then they shouldn't be granted the presidency, says Kerrey.

Kerrey ends with a Jim Webb quote that I think also points the way on Iraq:

You do not have to occupy a country in order to fight terrorists who are inside it.

The SysAdmin's use does not necessarily need to follow the Leviathan's massed employment. More surgical use of the Leviathan's SOF can be an effective substitute.

This is a concept I explore some in my upcoming Esquire article, which should hit boxes in 10-12 days.

Update: A big thanks to Nathan Machula for finding this at Opinion Journal and commenting the link.

Adding the poofs doesn't turn Brit military into puffs

ARTICLE: "Gay Britons Serve in Military With Little Fuss, as Predicted Discord Does Not Occur," by Sarah Lyall, New York Times, 21 May 2007, p. A8.

The Brit Army is determine to keep its successful integration of openly gay soldiers low key, out of a desire not to lord over the Americans, who still see the issue in explosive terms (like our just re-appointed Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Pete Pace).

There are now 24 militaries in the world, many of them traditional military allies, that allow gays to serve openly.

One quarter of U.S. deaths in Iraq are contractors

ARTICLE: "Death Toll for Contractors Reaches New High in Iraq: As Military Steps Up Effort, Risks Also Rise for Drivers, Translators and Others," by John M. Broder and James Risen, New York Times, 19 May 2007, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "First Called to Duty, Then Citizenship: Immigrants Fought for the United States Before It Was Truly Their Country," By Brigid Schulte, Washington Post, May 22, 2007; Page A01

Different way of casting the headline, I suppose, but they should be recognized as "U.S. deaths" if they're serving on USG contracts, yes?

Me? I would give any foreign contractors the same rapid citizenship we offer those who join our military. Staff up the SysAdmin with the biggest risk-taking, frontier types out there.

It's how we built this nation: on the backs of immigrant wave after immigrant wave.

Since we're in another frontier age thanks to globalization's rapid expansion, I say we need to return to similar incentive structures.

You knew this was coming

ARTICLE: "Why Work Is Looking More Like a Video Game," by Michael Fitzgerald, New York Times, 20 May 2007, p. BU3.

If you're under 35, you grew up on video games. Now that logic is seeping into business software programs.

Most interesting part: massive online multiplayer games showing how you keep a company of thousands spread all around the planet all seeing the same big picture.

Watching my kids , I can tell you this will only grow.

Does the Iranian veto cometh?

ARTICLE: Iran's secret plan for summer offensive to force US out of Iraq, By Simon Tisdall, The Guardian, May 22, 2007

If true, then I am not surprised. This is the Iranian "veto" I've been talking about since Bush's re-election.

As I said earlier, this is why I am not optimistic on coming talks. It's our barrel and we're strapped tight.

Thanks to Dan Hare for sending this.

The Scholar or the Journalist?

POST: What’s Your China Fantasy?, By David M. Lampton, James Mann, May 2007

Good debate worth reading between Mann and Lampton.

You can guess which one I find sensible: duh! The long-time China scholar!

Actually, regional specialists should always be taken with a grain of salt, but Lampton is superlative.

Mann's a journalist, and you know what I think about looking to journalists for grand strategic advice ...

Thanks to Dan Collier for sending this.

Another article relating to last week's column on China's scandals

ARTICLE: "An Export Boom Suddenly Facing A Quality Crisis: Customers Worldwide Pressing Beijing to Act After Tainted-Food Case," by David Barboza, New York Times, 18 May 2007, p. C1.

No comment necessary. Subtitle says it all.

Just posting for my record.

Finished editing the book proposal

Just over 4,300 words and 14 pages (much double-spaced).

Sending out now to Mark Warren and my agent Jennifer Gates.

This book is going to be so amazingly fun to write.

On sending Tom stuff

In text of email is good.

Working links are good.

All attachments suck.

I blog mostly off my phone now (yes, I type incredibly fast), and I just junk the attachments and the cryptic link-only emails.

I need a hint, or an excerpt, or the text. I need to be able to process the whole email in about 30 seconds.

Any longer is too long, given the several hundred substantive emails I get in a day.

Trickle-down is how the world works

POST: Kurdistan's Economic Divide, Enterprise Resilience Management Blog

Good blog by Steve.

People tend to have the most unreal expectations of what initial connectivity can bring to a damaged society (although, let's say the average Kurd, as this guy hints, makes--say--200 a month, which would yield an annual of 2400, which would be stunningly good for a postwar Gap state in recovery), especially on the question of rich v. poor.

Honestly, the first order of any boom is to create some rich people while making sure no one's doing too badly.

Why?

Richer people create economic activity by investing and consuming.

Ask a tradesman sometime. They don't get hired by poor people. They get hired by wealthier ones. You may scoff at such trickle-down notions, but it's actually how the world works.

I myself never seem to make any speaking or consulting fees off "poor" groups or companies, just "rich" ones. Am I supposed to resent that? Or just hope that the ranks of the "rich" ones swell?

Development-in-a-Box is about democratizing access, not equalizing income. It's about making everyone richer, and yeah, it will inevitably be that the poor get richer but that the rich get a lot richer. Unless you want to get in the business of telling foreign cultures what to do with their wealth, that's how it's always going to be. Our job in Kurdistan is not to curtail the growing wealth of the elite, but to expand opportunity.

Globalization will never be about income equalization, but about connectivity equalization. We can't mandate economic outcomes. Can't do it at home. Can't do it in other people's countries.

What we can do is end the disconnectedness while not pretending that we're the world's social worker.

Europe incentivized to integrate Russia

ARTICLE: Russia to negotiate new deal with EU after joining WTO, RIA Novosti, May 20, 2007

Good stuff that sees the Europeans (and one thinks of Merkel here, who's proving to be great) take more initiative in integrating Russia--its main gas supplier--in political and economic terms.

Yes, the Bush administration has worked the WTO angle too, it's just dangling a different prize: missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Ah well, the Euros face a different incentive structure, which tells you something about globalization, does it not?

Thanks to Bill Mayer for sending this.

If I'm Iran...

ARTICLE: Those pesky puppies of war, By Spengler, Asia Times Online, May 22, 2007

Good analysis from Spengler on the Middle East, especially in dismissing the "silly" talk from last year on how belief in the 12th Imam was driving everything Tehran did in confronting the West.

Things are settling in rather nicely toward a path of detente with Iran: we need them on Iraq and they need us to back off on the nukes so they can move toward some sort of perestroika on their economy, which is floundering badly, despite the oil wealth. They need access to FDI and that access can only come with some gives on their part.

For now, Iran is sitting relatively pretty other than its economy: our pain in Iraq is profound and growing in terms of domestic discontent, and their path on nukes seems locked in. The more they wait on those two issues, the better the terms get, especially as Bush's term draws to a close.

The question, of course, is how Tehran calculates the economic costs in the meantime, especially since it can trigger political unrest, which seems to grow more frequent with each passing month in Iran.

So the wild card is domestic unrest, which seems largely driven by economic frustration, although petty political repression could end up being a huge trigger (e.g., the daily battles with the supremely annoying morals/fashion police).

If I'm Iran, I rein in Ahmadinejad for now, relax on the public, and wait out Bush while soft-pedaling the nuke issue and Iran, meaning I pretend to cooperate on both but deliver little. The Bush people, so desperate now for signs of success (witness North Korea) won't prove too hard to suffer in their remaining 20 months..

This is what I expect Iran to do, and I expect it to be supremely frustrating for us on Iraq.

But we can hope that Bush will pay the logical prices to salvage some sense of genuine relief on casualties in Iraq prior to his departure.

Thanks to Lexington Green for sending this.