Iran: good logic

ARTICLE: 'Iran Studies China Model: To Craft Economic Map: Nation Aims to Keep Political Control And Lift Economy,' By ANDREW HIGGINS, The Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2007; Page A4

There is both economic and political logic in this choice.

Get used to it.

Thanks to NYkrinDC for sending this.

Robb in the NYT

OP-ED: 'The Insurgent Advantage: Thanks to a series of organizational technological innovations, guerrilla insurgencies are increasingly able to take on and defeat nation-states,' By DAVID BROOKS, New York Times, May 18, 2007

Good news for John. This will spur further media interest, reviews and sales.

Ignatius helped me in this way, and it was a serious boost. Coming a month out, it will help spark what strikes me as a modest Wiley effort at PR.

It's all about generating interest while the book's readily available in stores, which still dwarf the online sales.

Thanks to Eric Osmer for sending this.

Vol. III's TOC

Brainstormed that yesterday, or rather, should I say, I wrote down on a slew of Fortran cards my proposed chapters for Vol. III that I had been contemplating, in a model of sorts that describes why I want to write this book, why I think this subject of grand strategy in a globalized world is important, what is required of people, what goes in, what goes on, what comes out, and why the results matter.

I foresee a preface, an opening chapter, four parts of three chapters each, a conclusion, and an afterword, making for 16 substantive sections in all.

Having constructed this, what I don't see, really, is a continuation of BFA in terms of running down content or arguments, nor do I see a grand exploration of all change led or made possible below the level of the nation state. I see that material flavoring this book, but not driving it. On that score, I will disappoint those who want this or that argument pursued.

There are a number of arguments I want to pursue in the book, but those argument will have to serve the book's primary function as a How-to manual.

This book needs to be timeless, born of a time and based on a challenging need, but not driven by current events.

It will also not be an exercise in futurology, but about how to think systematically about the future, much like my one taught course at the Naval War College.

The subject matter will be global change, but the subject matter will be somewhat irrelevant to the delivery of the how-to. This will not be a book about becoming an expert on globalization per se, crammed with facts and figures. It will be a book about how to become a strategic thinker on global affairs in an era of expansive globalization. I can't tell you the opportunities, but I can help you recognize them. Ditto for the dangers. But no list-making here, because lists change with time.

It will be a book about how you order your life, your mind, and your career in order to become a purveyor of grand strategic visions that inform and influence others.

It will be at once my most personal and impersonal book, reflecting my life most and yet dissecting its function in the most generically translatable terms.

I want to make it as useful as possible for as many as possible.

I see this as the easiest book I've ever written, but easily the hardest to edit. Oddly enough, I don't see a bigger role for Mark Warren as a result--at least not in a hands on sense. Rather, I see much more negotiation between us. I think the first draft will be a breeze and the rewrites seemingly neverending.

I have never been more excited to write anything in my life.

Can the World Bank change?

POST: The Post-Wolfowitz World Bank

Keeping with the same theme, James Pethokoukis from U.S. News & World Report mentions Tom in a post from yesterday:

Perhaps new leadership and a new mission are needed. Political scientist and geostrategist Thomas Barnett, author of Blueprint for Action, says that perhaps the World Bank could focus instead on post-conflict and post-disaster recovery.

Blogs of War links that post, but says he's not holding his breath.

Next at the World Bank?

CLASH OF CULTURES: For Washington Insider, Job Was an Uneasy Fit, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, May 18, 2007; Page A01

Now that the Wolfowitz drama seems over, let me be among the first to suggest Robert Zoellick is our man.

More from Steve in Kurdistan

POST: Lessons from the Edge of Globalization: 3 days in Iraq from the Syrian/Turkish Border to the Iranian Border

Another fascinating blog from Steve on his activity in Kurdistan.

The "noneconomics" don't help on China, because the economics are doing just fine

OP-ED: "It's a Win-Win on U.S.-China Trade," by Wu Yi, Wall Street Journal, 17 May 2007, p. A21.

TECHNOLOGY JOURNAL: "Why China Relaxed Blogger Crackdown: Registration Plan Was Dropped in Face of Tech-Industry Protests," by Jason Leow, Wall Street Journal, 17 May 2007, p. B3.

Vice Premier Wu Yi notes that the U.S. and China were completely cut off from each other until Nixon goes ... in 1972 and now 35 years later we are both each other's largest trade partner.

But the Chinese Communist Party still rules, so James Mann sees complete failure, due to his painfully myopic definition of freedom inside China.

Wu wants less interference from "noneconomic" issues in our burgeoning bilateral economic ties.

Is the ballooning connectivity enough? Does it have effect? Does it encourage freedom?

China was to force all 20 million bloggers there to register themselves by their real names. You know the drill and the intent.

But China's tech industry balks at the incredible regulatory burden, saying it will retard China's tech industry and hamper its development both at home and abroad, thus harming competitiveness and thus limiting economic growth and thus threatening the party's legitimacy as overseer of economic expansion.

So the party backs down, choosing the economics over the politics.

Not enough for Chicken Little Mann, but I just saw 20 million bloggers win their freedom--yet again. First time was when the connectivity emerged. Second was when their courage emerged. Third was when the party decided it couldn't bear the costs of a crackdown.

That list will go on and on, as will the growing freedoms.

But yeah, the Party ain't going anywhere anytime soon. If that's your only definition of freedom, China will confound you much like South Korea did for decades, Japan did for decades, Mexico did for decades, Singapore has done for decades, Russia will do for ... not quite sure on that one because the tides switch back and forth with such speed there--in historical terms (although such yo-yo-ing is common in Russian history).

But I see no useful political freedom unless it's undergirded with economic freedom, and that cannot come about without wealth creation, and that cannot come about without connectivity.

The Latino Mugabe

ARTICLE: "Farms Are Latest Target In Venezuelan Upheaval: Co-ops of City Dwellers On Seized Acreage Are Mostly a Bust So Far," by Jose De Cordoba, Wall Street Journal, 17 May 2007, p. A1.

BLOG: What is the basis of Mugabe’s support?, by Curzon, Coming Anarchy, 15 May 2007.

Curzon wonders how Mugabe holds on, despite all the obvious damage he's done to his nation's economy.

First, there is the devious deal-making with outsiders. Then there is the fear of neighbors to get involved, as Curzon points out.

But the underlying strength, in my mind, is the constant Stalinist purging of opposition, which keeps them off balance and continuously generates news allies who believe, incorrectly, that they're going to benefit--finally!--from this purge.

Stalin was a genius at this, Mao a clumsy paranoid (not that Stalin wasn't too--an occupational hazard): every so often you simply take from some and reward others, while toppling enemies in the process. You keep your opposition fragmented and confused, and you capture just enough of the masses with the belief that--maybe, just maybe--it'll work out for them next time.

It's a neverending shell game.

Chavez is doing this now, replicating some of Mugabe's early madness on farm seizures. Naturally, crop production is crashing as a result, amidst farcical claims that "we are building socialism and fighting capitalism!"

What a cartoon show.

Just like Mugabe:

The government bills land reform as a way to make Venezuela self-sufficient in food. But so far the effect has been to undercut production of beef, sugar and other foods , as productive land is handed to city dwellers with no knowledge of farming. Established farmers and ranchers, fearing their land may be seized next, are cutting investment in their operations to a minimum.

The chaos in the countryside has contributed to shortages in basic items like milk and meat, a paradox in a country enjoying an economic boom traceable to high oil prices. Also spurring the shortages are price controls ...

Let a thousands plots bloom!

Where have we seen this madness before?

And this builds socialism all right, which has always failed in agriculture to a stunning degree.

Watch the downward spiral continue, along with the oil curse fueling Chavez's idiocy.

But rest assured he will always work diligently to keep a certain quotient of the public in his debt and/or in his sights, all the time enriching his relatives, who continue--a la Castro and all Big Men--to move into key positions.

Chavez already blames the shortages on "speculators," who will naturally be targeted next for the purge.

Pretty soon they'll go after people wearing glasses, who must be reading too much "dangerous literature."

People ask why I don't worry aout the Mugabes and Chavezes spreading their example.

No need to, as they guys are completely self-liquidating, like a very contagious disease.

The neighbors just need to wash their hands regularly and keep the borders as closed as possible.

The rest of us just let the demonstration effect do its thing.

Keep it real on China in Africa

ARTICLE: "Superstitions of Democracy," By William F. Buckley Jr., National Review Online, April 25, 2007

A fairly realistic take on what sequencing makes the most sense for Africa vis-a-vis the Chinese. No connectivity without modicum of order, and once connectivity occurs, a bunch of other stuff becomes possible over time.

But without connectivity, nothing will happen.

And without order, then you're talking Somalia.

As I have said many times, China's burgeoning connectivity in the region limits our liability there, which is fine, because even with Africom, we're unlikely to have even as many soldiers on the ground as France still has in its weakening strategic twilight.

So keep it real on China in Africa, unless you contemplate more than just words emanating from the U.S.

Thanks to Lexington Green for sending this.

Chinese investments in Africa

ARTICLE: Roundtable probes the politics of China’s large-scale investments in Africa, BY ANNIE JIA, Stanford Report, May 16, 2007

Good overview of trends and issues re: Chinese infrastructure investment in Africa.

Thanks to Eric Allison for sending this.

Latter-day Ford Admin failures

ARTICLE: Failing By Example, By Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, May 16, 2007, Pg. 19

A bit of a stretch by Friedman on DoJ, but more to the point on the CPA.

Bottom line analysis is very pertinent: Bush divides rather than unites. That with-us-or-against-us stuff can hold up for only so long (apparently only one term) and then the retreats begin.

Cheney and Rummy learned 2 things during their time with Ford: 1) don't do Vietnams and 2) restore the power of the presidency. By reaching so hard to meet both goals, they have--quite ironically and at great cost--gotten us into a very lonely tie-down in Iraq and diminished the presidency and U.S. stature in the world.

When you are that obvious in your fears, you hand your enemies everything they need to destroy you.

Again, history's judgment will be very harsh.

I want my DoEE

POST: Big Aid Agency Group Splits With Bush

The big aid crowd asking for their Department of Everything Else, for all the logical reasons.

Thanks to the person who sent this in.

This will change ... nothing

ARTICLE: "Bush Taps Skeptic of Buildup as 'War Czar': Lt. Gen. Lute Accepts Position Others Spurned," By Peter Baker and Robin Wright, Washington Post, May 16, 2007; Page A01

The patsy has been found, finally: the man on the white donkey.

Kurtz: "You're just another grocery clerk sent to kill me."

The French SysAdmin-on-the-sly is going away?

ARTICLE: "Colonial-Era Ties to Africa Face a Reckoning in France: Secretive and Powerful Cell Suffers Blows As Controversies Grow," by David Gauthier-Villars, Wall Street Journal, 16 May 2007, p. A1.

France has long used its residual forces in Africa to make sure its former colonies continue to give it privileged access to raw materials and energy and precious commodities there--same old same old.

Now, with the scandals piling up and Sarkozy poised to clean some house, France's minor key SysAdmin role in Africa appears to wind down, leaving the continent to whom?

Already, the U.S., India and China are investing heavily in Africa, hovering around what's left of French-controlled riches on the continent.

Now, with Africom poised to stand up, we see the real shift from Old Core to New Core begin in Africa, with America naturally aligned with this era's frontier-integrating economies: India and China.

So yeah, shrinking the Gap is not some dream. It's right on schedule.

Time is on Iran's side

ARTICLE: "Iran's Progress on Nuclear Fuel Brings New Urgency, Divisions," by David Crawford, Marc Champion, and Neil King, Jr., Wall Street Journal, 16 May 2007, p. A10.

Another headline that's getting routine: we're surprised at how far Iran is on nukes, and that gets people more bothered and more conflicted on how to act.

ElBaradei says, "Keeping them from getting the knowledge has been overtaken by events."

Right.

We made those events happen by the choices we made (Afghanistan, Iraq) and the company we keep (Pakistan) and the tasks we put off (North Korea) because of the worn-out enemy images we can't discard (China).

Overtaken by our foreign policy, perhaps, but hardly by some detached "events" beyond our control.

We made our calls, which I agreed with and still do, and now we have to live with them on Iran, which isn't going away and needs to be penetrated now in the only sensible manner we can muster, given the tie-down in Iraq: economic connectivity.

Nixon slayed the Sovs this way, like the Bride slayed Bill in Vol. II: they walked away, never knowing how they had sold their souls by opening up, thus leaving themselves subject to dropping oil prices and our defense hike later, neither of which wasted their system, but simply made clear (as did their misadventures in the Third World with the aid-sucking Countries of Socialist Orientation and Afghanistan, plus their aging dependents in East Central Europe) how dysfunctional it was because pricing had no meaning for the vast majority of it and where it started to have meaning, it was all disastrous and sapping of public morale and belief in the system. Gorby shows up to fix and inadvertently ends up dismantling, all because Nixon laid the groundwork back a dozen years earlier in the greatest act of strategic jujitsu known to history.

But we can't do that with Iran, can we? We're too proud, and too bossed around by the Saudis and Israelis. And Iran is too clever, which is why their economy is collapsing outside oil, which is peaking truly there due to lack of investment, which it cannot obtain without opening up.

We have Iran over the barrel but can't see the opportunity because of our strange fixation on global gun control.

Does anyone think SALT killed the Sovs? Or was it simply a mechanism for accessing them in the "postwar" of nuclear deterrence, the same situation we're running into with Iran.

A Euro diplomat defines it simply: "This is a major change; it shows that time is very much on Iran's side."

Yeah, so long as we keep playing the wrong moves on the wrong board.

Japan moving to center of auto universe

ARTICLE: "Japan's Auto Giants Steer Toward China: Toyota, Nissan, Honda Refocus Their Efforts As U.S. Demand Slows," by Amy Chozick, Wall Street Journal, 16 May 2007, p. A12.

Get used to that subhead: "turn to Asia/China as U.S./European demand slows."

All relative, mind you, but it comes down to, Who's the demand center in the global economy?

When I did the NewRuleSets.Project security ex on Asia's rising energy needs (scroll down) with Cantor Fitzgerald atop World Trade Center 1 at Windows on the World in early 2000, the clincher line in the read-ahead was basically, "Asia's going to become the global demand center on energy by 2020."

That, of course, doesn't change everything, but it does change a lot of things, to include the focus of effort of major auto companies from around the world--including ours.

You access the China build-up and you learn how to sell to the bottom of the pyramid for whatever markets Asia replicates itself in next.

Remember, the Euros made us in the 1800s, and then we, in turn, raised up Asia after WWII. Now Asia must replicate itself--by sloughing off lower-end production as it moves up the value chain--and that somebody's gonna be in the Gap.

When Honda-Shanghai Motors opens its first assembly plant in Kenya, then we'll understand better what comes next.

Don't want the time?

ARTICLE: "Surging Ahead In Iraq," By Max Boot, Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2007, Pg. 17

Combine this article with Jaffe's and Ignatius' and one gets the feeling of complete disarray in this administration.

You can blame the disconnect cited on the Dems, but they act on the mandate of the midterms--the public's pronounced political feedback to Bush. Blaming them now is like blaming the judge for sentencing after the jury convicts. You don't want the time? Then don't commit the crime, which here is losing the American public over the poor administration of these postwar rebuilds in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The sad thing is, we waste so much time in this premature, two-plus-year-long postpresidency masquerading as the real deal.

The opportunity costs here are simply stunning. This downside alone will yield incredibly harsh historical judgments on Bush-Cheney.

Ignatius of similar opinion

OP-ED: Running Out of Time in Iraq, By David Ignatius, Washington Post, May 15, 2007; Page A15

Ignatius seems likewise to be of the opinion that sectarian strife is now--as I said in my column last weekend--the long pole in Iraq's tent.

Bush Admin loses interest in Iraq

ARTICLE: "Fewer Hands Steering Iraq Policy: As 'Surge' Continues in Baghdad, Washington Officials Drift Away," By Greg Jaffe and Yochi J. Dreazen, Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2007, Pg. 4

Bad sign, indicating the political withdrawal has already begun back here in DC.

Kirkuk is the place to watch

ARTICLE: U.S. Scrambles To Keep Kirkuk From Igniting, By Rick Jervis, USA Today, May 15, 2007, Pg. 1

Following my notes from "State of the World," Kirkuk is the place to watch in coming weeks. We lose that struggle for stability and no partial victory to claim in Kurdistan.