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Monthly Archives

Entries from June 1, 2007 - June 30, 2007

7:43PM

Photo album now online from my Africa trip [updated w/slideshow]

It's annotated.

Find it at http://picasaweb.google.com/thomaspmbarnett/AfricaTrip.

[Ed: Or just watch it here.]



Captions are easier if you click through to Picasa. To see them here, click the speech bubble at bottom left.

The blog should have been up by now at Esquire.com. When it is, it will help you understand the pix a bit better. But my captions alone should make the basic plotline fairly clear.

Enjoy.

3:32PM

Dolly Parton's Dixie Stampede

Photo_06.jpg

From the pre-show concert at Dolly Parton's Dixie Stampede.

We were seated with the Core otherwise known as the "North" (you know, in the serious "kinetics" of 1861-1865).

temp.jpg

Quite the dust-up at Dolly's

Photo_06%282%29.jpg

A contest to settle the rivalry!

10:45AM

Whoa doggy! Condemn generally, praise specifically

If anyone took my previous blog on Ganske's post as criticizing his material or approach, then they are not reading carefully.

I actually took the pretext of his most excellent post to blow off some steam on how I myself fear blogs are being changed (i.e., becoming more professionalized). I really think that process is good, by and large. I'm just not looking for it here, and so sometimes my blog output gets interpreted a bit too seriously, like a press release or something, when I consider it pretty much open mike.

I don't deny I'm a calculating fellow, it's just that sometime I calculate to cut loose and accept what results. That's what I like about the blog.

I admire the Russia Blog a lot, want it added to my roll, and hope Ganske writes more of the same. I just wanted to take advantage of his blog to make my larger point. I find it's better to make generalized condemnations when combined with a specific point of praise--better form, nicer tone, etc. If I do it when somebody really pisses me off, then I'm likely to make the matter worse. Better to do it when I can combine with some specific praise, because then I can counter with the good example and not just be negative.

I really think there's a variety of blogs possible, and I don't have a problem with mental masturbation whatsoever. I imagine it keeps your imagination healthy in the same way that real masturbation supposedly staves off prostate cancer (yes Virginia, there are web sites to this effect). I mean, use it or lose it. And God knows there are so many ways in life today to let parts of your intellect atrophy, so I see blogs as inherently good in developing expressiveness and thinking and new ideas.

It's just that one man's unfiltered post easily becomes another's cause celebre, so I worry that, as my profile rises, I'll be denied the venue because too many readers will start taking everything too seriously, to include harshly criticizing me everytime I don't give every side to every subject I raise or don't give every expected qualifying argument (go on TV sometime, and tell me exactly how easy that is, and if you can pull it off, then you might have a future as a talkinghead who covers all arguments without every making a coherent point--one magnificently crowded field, I must say).

Anyway, enough said.

9:32AM

Tom around the web

Well, for the second week in a row, various and sundry links to Tom's TED talk are the most popular:
+ Surfing suggestion
+ Duck, Duck, Broken Goose
+ Chris Miller
+ pebkac thoughts (love that name ;-)
+ retrofire
+ A hack pretending to be an intern
+ the Daily Irrelevant
+ Bacon and Money
+ Hot soup in my eye (plus the MeFi thread)
+ Brain Unclenching
+ Mraฦ’รงni blog (what language are we working in here? an Eastern European one, I guess...)
+ Surendra
+ Richmond kills me

+ New Yorker in DC linked the C-SPAN interview and The Americans Have Landed.
+ Annansi Chronicles also linked the Esquire article.
+ So did Crossriflesonblue on Hannity's forum.
+ Free Somalia ripped off the whole article and one of the pix (but included Tom's name, at least).

+ ZenPundit linked Nice post by Curtis on 5GW.
+ Curtis responded to Tom.

+ ArtLung linked Watch Vietnam's rerun of China's relationship with U.S.
+ Argghhh!!! linked The debate is real on going to war with Iran.
+ So did et alli.
+ Argghhh!!! also linked I said, it's China's oil!.
+ Dave Porter linked Criteria for a real conversation.
+ Andynonymous linked the weblog.
+ Big Lizards mentioned the Gap.
+ The American Mind says Mitt Romney's New Marshall Plan sounds like the SysAdmin.
+ La Russophobe linked Comment upgrade: Russia's reset.
+ Chapomatic linked Your best scenarios on how America gets its 51st state.
+ Silicon Hutong linked Tom as a good source for China info.

9:27AM

Amphibs must be multi-purpose

ARTICLE: Landing Ships Outmaneuver Terrorists, By Harold C. Hutchison, Strategy Page, June 22, 2007

An obvious repurposing from Leviathan to SysAdmin. Despite the much-cited observation from the Marines that some fantastic percent of the world's population is accessible by assault from the sea, we're simply past the point in history where it makes sense to maintain a large-scale capacity to mount opposed amphibious assaults--unless they are mutli-purposable. Inchon was probably the last great hurrah for that sort of warfare (although North Korea remains plausible--reflecting its trapped-in-history status), so we watch Marine amphibs redirected toward pure SysAdmin work as medical responders.

Thanks to Brad Lena for sending this.

3:12AM

This week's column

How America organizes itself to win both war and peace

For years now I've argued for splitting America's military into one force that wins conventional wars and another that focuses on crisis response, disaster relief, post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction, and counterinsurgency operations. That decisive bifurcation of our forces is currently on display in Africa.

I dub the war-fighting force the Leviathan, a term borrowed from the 17th-century English philosopher Thomas Hobbes, whose book of the same name described why man's life was then filled with wars: the lack of an all-powerful entity that enforced global peace. America's conventional force constitutes just such a capability in today's world.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

6:24PM

Good, elaborating post on Russia's demo decline on Russia Blog

One of the hazards I have right now is trying to be all things to all people: do all the speeches, write all the columns and Esquire articles, do the media stuff, write the blog--oh, and help Steve manage the company while it grows explosively.

Then's there's the next book, the house, the marriage, the four kids (high school, junior high, primary and preschool) and the upcoming interview for the next hoped-for adoption.

Then there's having a home where you do no work, although you work at home when you're there.

Then there's the occasional parental helping-out, both sides.

Then there's trying to stay in shape.

Then there's just still being in love with Vonne the person and wanting to spend time with her.

Then there's everyone sending you emails, expecting responses--sometimes personal tutorials!

Sorry.

Being on vacation lets you hang out like that.

Anyway . . .

The back and forth with RKKA (who's clearly an angrier guy than I can manage on my sked, though I have my moments) represents one of those efforts (and there are so many) when both pissed-off and helpful readers shove things your way and pretty much demand you reply to it (like it's your job to reply to everything going on in the world), and while you don't want to get into that pointless "commenting" role that I eschew on MSM venues (I prefer to go on only to talk about my stuff/articles/ideas versus just chattering about current events because, when I do, it just feels like another asshole with an opinion, so why bother?), you try to accommodate all this demand without angering your family too much.

But I mean, it's not like you have the time a lot of these people seem to have to craft these super-long emails where they go on and on (often getting cut off by my Treo's character limit--always a bad sign), so you do your best to reply and deal with what they're coming at you about.

Call it retail strategizing.

When you do this, you're cutting intellectual corners by definition, because time isn't infinite. Most of this stuff I type in so fast, you simply wouldn't believe it--even on my Treo.

So the fine points often get mangled, even if the gist and thrust are dead on.


[EDITOR'S NOTE: All of the preceding text is what we here at Thomas P.M. Barnett Weblog like to call, "pre-writing." It's just a little thing we like to do to give you, the reader, the illusion that Tom's actually just cranking this stuff out with really no filter whatsoever--not even his Catholic upbringing! None of this stuff can be found in the blog 90 days post-posting. We edit it out to preserve a more professional tone for our archives, and to save Tom from embarrassing questions at some future Congressional hearing [Sean here: Will somebody down at research pull a nice quote from somebody well known on that point and insert here prior to final proofing?]. Now, on to the real purpose of this blog post, which we on the staff really think is smashingly good.]

Charles Ganske in his excellent and where-does-he-find-the-time post on Russia Blog (I mean, Jesus! His blog posts seem fancier than my articles! And doesn't it seem a bit much when people quote my blog so solemnly? And then there's commenting on my tone . . . to which I reply, Fuck off! ITSABLOG man! Not the Goddamn Congressional Record [he types in furiously, overdoing the profanity to drive his point home]) does a nice treatment of the subject at hand, being both fair and polite to me--even in his justified criticism--and so moves the ball and the conversation along nicely.

This, to me, is how the blogosphere should work--especially for professionals like me for whom the blog is really a web-based intellectual and career diary and not what so many slick ones have become recently: you know, a lot more professional and calculating and thorough and careful.

All of that's good, and Russia Blog is a great example of it (if it's not on my blogroll, Sean, then . . . ). Too much of the blogosphere is full of know-somethings acting like really-done-somethings (although that changes as writing blogs seems de riguer for so many really-doing-somethings in so many fields), and that can grate those of us who are both professionals in their field and--in effect--what is now old-school bloggers (meaning there's really something of ourselves in the blog, not just polished output).

My blog is so amazingly real-time for me, with almost no forethought, meaning I just pour it out from my ongoing work and thinking. As blogs get more collectivist and professional, that sort of from-the-gut and off-the-cuff writing gets easier to attack and criticize, and I can easily imagine that process reaching the point where I'm still writing my blog like we're sitting at a bar with two nice martinis between us and I'm just talking my way out of my professional/personal day with you, but that style ends up getting slammed all the time by the more corporatizing blogosphere (to include the zealots who spend way too much time online) so that I start dulling up my own blog, watching my words, getting more confidential (inevitable) and so on.

And I would find that outcome sad, not just for me (fuck'em all if they can't take a joke now and then) but for the blogosphere as a whole, because I'd foresee a straight split between the professional blogs and the personal ones, with the former taking things too seriously and the latter not seriously enough (discourse is valuable, no matter what the impetus).

Why say all this?

I was just impressed by Ganske's well-reasoned and reasonably polite way of correcting my posts. I have no idea who he is. I mean, the guy uses that "we here at Russia blog" tone that apes the NYT a bit too much for my taste ("Oh yeah! Well, I here at the Thomas P.M. Barnett blog will be sure to raise this with myself the next time I take a really long shower, so there!").

Still, that's how to deal with guys like me without ruining guys like me (I mean, shit! Here I am in this vacation house with everyone lights out and I'm bothering to write this!). And yeah, I really appreciate that, even if this post never would have happened without Ganske sending me this superserious email about his post, with his "maybe you want to comment on it" suggestion (if I had a nickel for every one of those emails I get daily . . . Randy Moss would be a Packer!).

But to wrap up this long post, which I labored over for several hours, running past several colleagues for their comments and getting Sean out of bed to do a style edit: read Ganske's nice post. I found it illuminating.

You know, wouldn't it be cool to just issue a standard press statement everytime someone quotes my blog that reads:

Pressed for comment, a representative of Thomas P.M. Barnett Weblog replied, "It's just his fucking blog, man! Call him up if you want a more dignified quote. I ain't the boss of him!"

Oh, already I feel like I shouldn't have typed that.

5:41PM

Spotted four black bears up close in Smokey Mtns National Park

Got some nice shots of a foraging male. Also came across a female with two cubs.

Great long five-mile hike in the mountains to a falls that took the afternoon.

Saw a Chinese acrobat/circus/drumming show tonight that was as good as anything we saw in Beijing. Got a bunch of the performers to sign an umbrella for Mei Mei.

Nice to be on trails again.

3:02AM

China's oil, SysAdmin

ARTICLE: China hosts 1st visit by Iraqi president, cancels debt, Xinhua, 2007-06-21

Invariably, it ends up being China's SysAdmin job because it needs to be their oil. You knew they had to connect eventually. All I want to do is get them involved upfront.

When you spot the pattern, you start being able to manipulate the process instead of being manipulated by your enemies.

In my version of 5GW, outcomes are never in doubt, just in process.

Thanks to Jamie Ruehl for sending this.

3:42PM

The politics of understanding

Speaking of hate mail, we got this amusing comment:

Mr. Barnett is a lying neocon fascist. The callers on c-pan made him look like the lame duck he really is, and there was nothing but rhetoric spewing from his remarks about Africa and Iraq. We cannot police the world and rape other nations of their oil.

12:21PM

C-SPAN link [updated]

For those of you who couldn't watch this morning, here's a link to the video archive (requires RealPlayer). Just skip forward one hour if you want to start where Brian tried to pick up Tom and starts to intro him. Then Tom himself comes in at 1:11:30.

Thanks to Porkopolis, who calls it ' Must See TV', for the link.

Here's a link to just Tom's appearance. Same 2-hour program with specific times above.

11:58AM

On C-SPAN

Felt it went okay. Really drowsy from the allergies. Questions were mostly statements. Clearly, the anti-Bushism revives a lot of latent distrust and dislike of U.S. military (the hate emails already pour in). But I had a lot of fun being back on with Lamb after three years.

Even with the delay due to tech problems (I finally told the local booth guy to leave his mike on to my ear and I'd simply listen from the feed by relay--difficult but it worked). There were two TVs astride the camera, which tempted me throughout (not sure how much my eyes darted): left one showed me all the time (local feed) and right one showed the C-SPAN output (which allowed me to realize when I was on the screen and to check out the photos as much as I could).

Kevin, along for the ride (we got up early at my mother-in-law's and drove to the Speedway studio from Terre Haute), appeared on screen to the surprise of the DC studio people as we checked out the set before the show. They called me on my cell to confirm I was on the scene, figuring he was my kid.

BTW, I shot it in shorts and hiking boots, so Lamb's bit about interrupting my family vacation was accurate.

1:12PM

Tom's on C-SPAN tomorrow!

This just in! Tom is confirmed for Washington Journal, tomorrow morning at 8am ET (click the little arrow up top for tomorrow's schedule to see his entry). The copy:

8am - Thomas Barnett, Esquire Magazine, Contributing Writer | Article: "The Americans Have Landed"

Looks like you can watch C-SPAN live on the web. I've never tried it myself. Guess I will tomorrow ;-)

12:09PM

Comment upgrade: Russia's reset

RKKA left this comment on Good sign for Russia's political future:

Um, Tom? The sharply higher death rates reach into people in their thirties. Its not just "old farts" who have paid the price of "reform" with their lives. Couple that with birth rates dropping to a bit more than half their 1992 level by the time Putin took over, and you have a demographic catastrophe that exceeds Stalinism and approaches WWII.

That's what you're brushing off here, and our refusal to realize and acknowlegewhat "reform" has really meant will poison US-Russian relations for years.

Tom wrote:

Your one-note is acknowledged, but comparisons to Stalinism and WWII are just plain indefensible and display a stunning ignorance of history.

You need another pony or another pasture.

Blaming Russia's bottoming-out (with the rebound already begun) on "reforms" is simplistic in the extreme.

The Soviet Union was long shielded from markets and liability. When Russia was suddenly thrust into that world, the country found that much of what it owned was useless, much of what it made was useless, and much of what it knew was useless. Decades of pushing pregnancies yielded to a demographic decline by volition. Comparing that to the tens of millions killed by Hitler or Stalin is nonsense.

What caused Russia's collapse was 70 years of socialism, not reforms, which merely pulled the curtain back on that vast human tragedy. Watching Russia emerge from that disastrous period is like watching America recover after the Civil War or China after the Cultural Revolution: it's a good 25 year shadow.

Socialism was a huge menace to life, liberty, happiness, and wealth in the USSR, just like it was everywhere else.

Russia's population now heads toward a number it can sustain rather than one artificially manufactured by the state. That is not a tragedy. It is a reality Russia imposed on itself.

Saying the reforms caused the collapse is like accusing the chemo of creating the cancer. It plays into silly stabbed-in-the-back fantasies that some in Russia entertain, preferring to blame the USSR's collapse on outsiders. Indulging such fantasies should be avoided at all costs.

5:21PM

Pretty good discussion of the TED video...

over on MetaFilter. Check it out. And if you're a MeFi member, think about participating.

4:09PM

Your best scenarios on . . .

... how America gets its 51st state.

By email or comments.

Nothing too fantastic (i.e., Kurdistan, Taiwan). I'm looking for believable stories and how they'd unfold.

Been giving a lot of substantive interviews lately to representatives of the 3-letter world, long range thinking and such. Issue arises, so I become curious on a good storyline.

I remain convinced that 51 is everything. Once in the door, the brand is back open for business.

Actually, the coolest would be a 2x2 with four outcomes . . .

1:28PM

Scandals that recalibrate China's economic connectivity with the world, part umpteenth

ARTICLE: "As More Toys Are Recalled, the Trail Ends in China," by Eric S. Lipton and David Barboza, New York Times, 19 June 2007, p. A1.

Already wrote the column on this one as a dynamic for positive change: when greed meets shame meets lawsuits.

Why is China the source of every one of the 24 toys recalled this year? China is the world's toy chest right now.

How to say, Irving Maimway in Mandarin?

1:20PM

The Americans have landed--elsewhere

ARTICLE: "U.S. War on Terror Shows Promise in the Philippines: Local Officers Lead, With American Aid; Beheadings in Jolo," by James Hookway, Wall Street Journal, 18 June 2007, p. A1.

A neat companion piece to my current article in Esquire. The piece even compares the work being done in the Philippines to that in the Horn of Africa.

The best line:

A simple formula underpins the progress here: While the U.S. brought sophisticated intelligence technology and drilled Philippine troops in night-combat and other specialized training, it also provided financial and community support to help revive the local economy. The approach is changing citizens' attitudes and setting the stage for a new level of normalcy after years of conflict.

Abu Sayyaf on the decline in the Philippines, and the Aceh separatist leader now serving as governor in Indonesia.

Southeast Asia is settling in to the point where it strikes me as unlikely anyone will consider it Gap in a decade's time.

12:51PM

Good sign for Russia's political future

ARTICLE: "A Chess Champion Unites Disparate Critics of Putin: Kasparov Tries to Turn Kremlin's Crackdowns To Political Advantage," by Alan Cullison, Wall Street Journal, 20 June 2007, p. A1.

The move and countermove:

The Kremlin channels dissent into parties that limit their criticism to lower-level officials, and hounds any party that tries to run without Kremlin approval. There remains a reservoir of angry but muffled voices. Mr. Kasparov, as a celebrity who refused to shut up, has managed to unify them to some degree.

That, to me, sounds like a Nobel Peace Prize in the making, but get behind Sistani, I say, because he's saving lives big-time in Iraq.

No, I don't expect Kasparov to dislodge Putin's crowned successor, but the sheer reality that he's been able to unite the opposition is a modest step forward. When this evolution moves into something more recognizable as rough pluralism, Russia's establishment and its opposition will move beyond the dregs/stars of the Soviet system, or the last generation of KGB versus the last generation of celebrities/poseurs. But we're a good generation from that generation appearing, or the people who've worked within the successor system for their entire careers and want to improve it.

Stability and growth set that sort of ambition in motion. Putin, in retrenching from the wild days of Gorby's political unraveling of the Soviet Union and Yeltsin's economic unraveling of the centrally-planned economy, has provided that and only that, but it's enough for now.

Yes, the country is full of old farts who'll tell you it's all been a disaster, but the harsh truth is those were old dogs whose only new trick learned has been to drink themselves into early graves rather than change. Don't mourn them or the system. It was a journey well worth enabling.

12:20PM

I said, it's China's oil!

ARTICLE: 'Iraq To Seek Chinese Help To Reinvigorate Oil Industry,' By Shai Oster, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2007, Pg. 3

One of the many reasons why we should have outsourced a good chunk of the Iraq rebuild to China in the first place: gonna be their oil in the end, plus getting some skin in the game spreads the risk.