The coolest one yet

As you know, I dig command coins (I have somewhere just short of 40) because they're small, unbreakable, highly specific and memorable, plus I just collect coins in general.

But today I got a way cool speaking gift: desk-top-size model of Sikorsky Blackhawk helo painted black. Comes with wooden stand and hangs suspended. Very sweet.

Spoke to company's senior execs today at Doral Arrowwood resort just outside Greenwich, CT. Prez is big fan of first book and (like so many others) was excited to hear about a sequel (hmmmmm--still, good to sell more books).

Great room, great AV, horseshoe table, lotsa great questions/dialogue throughout, and I dash out to catch limo back to airport. Went 110 with 10 extra Q&A. Probably one of the best corporate gigs I've ever done. Just really clicked.

They're mailing the model. My fingers are crossed.

Moving up the supply chain on transparency

ARTICLE: "FDA to Toughen Food Inspection: Imports With Biggest Risk May Get Extended Looks Through Supply Chain," by Jane Zhang, Wall Street Journal, 14 June 2007, p. A3.

This one, as I've oft noted here, is just gonna keep coming and coming, with food worries driving most of the drive for transparency up the chain.

So we'll see FDA extend its nets quite logically, and "collect much more data from overseas on how foods are produced and handled--called 'life-cycle' data--and feed it into a data-base for inspectors."

What Enterra would then do, is help involved agencies dynamically manage the rules of response, because this is going to be both a huge data flow and a complex application of a plethora of rules (many conflicting and many involving us in the rule-set regimes of partners) that everyone will want to run while keeping the flow hyper-efficient, because companies and states can't see their ag and food companies' competitiveness killed in the process.

Watch Vietnam's rerun of China's relationship with U.S.

ARTICLE: "Vietnam Leader to Push Economic Ties on U.S. Trip: As Human Rights Gains Scrutiny, Triet Signal Reply," by James Hookway and Paul Beckett, Wall Street Journal, 14 June 2007, p. A8.

POLITICAL MEMO: "An Unexpected Odd Couple: Free Markets and Freedom," by Patricia Cohen, New York Times , 14 June 2007, p. A4.

Vietnam will face all the same pushback China has and continues to receive: yes, you're turning capitalistic but not democratic at the same time.

What should Triet do? Exact same game plan:

He will also respond to criticism of Vietnam's human-rights record by urging U.S. political leaders to pay more attention instead to the countries' growing economic ties."

No surprise:

As it has opened to more foreign investment, Vietnam's economy has boomed.

So can we be patient on the rise in incomes or must we demand instant democracy?

After all, the academics argue, democracy and development went hand in hand in America, right?

Unless you weren't white or didn't own land at first.

Unless you were a slave for the first century or so.

Unless you were black and living in the South until the 1960s.

Unless you were part of any immigrant wave in which you were systematically denied your social, political and economic rights for years and decades following your arrival--as in, no Irish allowed or no Catholics allowed.

Unless you couldn't vote directly for senators until the turn of the 20th century.

Unless you were Native Americans.

Unless you were female and didn't vote whatsoever until about 80 years ago.

Unless you're gay and lesbian today and can't get married or enjoy spousal benefits.

Unless, unless, unless.

Ah yes, but we were perfect from the start. Where it took decades or even centuries to achieve democracy to achieve elsewhere.

Our sense of our own history is so queerly warped.

Ah, but let the academics debate it endlessly while the businessmen spread economic freedom in the meantime ....

Our best new strategy of disconnecting rogue elites by further disconnecting already disconnected masses

ARTICLE: "Should States Sell Stocks To Protest Links To Iran?" by Neil King, Jr., Wall Street Journal, 14 June 2007, p. A1.

ARTICLE: "Missouri Treasurer's Demand: 'Terror-Free' Pension Funds," by Craig Karmin, Wall Street Journal, 14 June 2007, p. C1.

The history on this (check John Mueller at Ohio) is stunningly clear: economic sanctions overwhelmingly kill the poor and disenfranchised and have little to no effect on the rich elites.

Yes, yes, apartheid South Africa is the sole exception, but it's a profound outlier that didn't feature oil and gas in an expanding global economy where rising powers face skyrocketing energy requirements.

Americans love sanctions and divesting, but they simply don' t work.

Bush opposes this stuff, preferring the highly targeted financial squeezes using banks. He's right.

The A-to-Z rule set on processing politically bankrupt states in the Gap is seductive, but so naive, as the Balkans can never be replicated

OP-ED: "Africa's World War," by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, 14 June 2007, p. A31.

Paul Collier's new book, "The Bottom Billion" is a must read. His previous work with David Dollar at the World Bank is a classic.

Collier is arguing SysAdmin precedence and return-on-investment right out of the Copenhagen Consensus (he authored that brilliant chapter on conflict prevention that I used in BFA).

Collier wants an international process by which failed states in Africa attract military interventions designed to quell mass violence or rogue regimes and jump start economic connectivity to the global economy. He and Kristof see the G-8 as needing to spearhead this new expansion of thought on aid and security's nexus.

Sure, it's be great to build up the AU to do this, but if Africa doesn't have the resources to pull itself up economically with foreign aid, how will it do so security-wise with military aid?

So walk the dog backwards:

1) you need an interested Leviathan
2) you need bodies for the attendant SysAdmin
3) you need a model of a new blending of development, diplomacy and defense.

And we've got CJTF-HOA leading to Africom and both India and China all over Africa.

Line up the G-20 and a revamped WB to finance it all and connect the front end to the UN Security Council and the back end to the ICC (their entire slate of defendants to date have been African), and you've got the package.

Or you can make it Bill to Bono to Clooney to Angelina to the other Bill to Buffett (check out the glam shots on "Fair Vanity"). But I like my six-pack better.

Arrest that operative! But only after making sure he's not Saudi or Pakistani!

ARTICLE: "Pentagon Chief Says Iran Is Arming Afghan Fighters," by Greg Jaffe and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, 14 June 2007, p. A7.

Yes, regional powers will game us every time we intervene locally. What do we expect?

Iran's arming people left and right--quite literally, but remember Saudi Arabia's not remaining aloof in Iraq either. As for Afghanistan?

[The Bush Administration has] far more evidence of Pakistan supplying the Taliban, but they don't say anything, because Islamabad's an ally," said Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University.

Gates thinks Iran might be trying "to play both sides of the streets."

Duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Does it seem like we're fielding a serious B Team here?

Don't expect it to get any better as this thing winds down.

Gillespie for Bartlett is a good example. Let's bring in the architect of Bush's mid-term humiliation.

Quote to build a life of value

Google Book Search serves up this page that quotes Tom from Building A Life Of Value: Timeless Wisdom to Inspire and Empower Us By Jason A. Merchey.

Tom's quoted on that page along with Diana Vargas, Carlos Castaneda, Gilda Radner, Clarence Darrow, Isabel Allende, and Francis Bacon. Pretty good company.

Co-opt the inevitable

ARTICLE: Pentagon says China improving ability to launch surprise attacks, By Robert Burns, Associated Press, May 26, 2007

Hmmm.

As opposed to "China modernizing its military so it can launch attacks everyone can see coming well in advance, but only from its shores!"

Of course, which country possesses the preeminent worldwide capacity to launch surprise attacks?

Why does America maintain such a capacity, when no other state comes close to matching it and can't for decades?

Because we're a global economic power intent of protecting our interests.

As China rises, is their development of such capacity automatically a threat to ours?

Or should we take this as the ultimate form of flattery?

If you want to rule the world, here's the first rule, lifted from Bob Wright: Don't fight the inevitable.

My corollary is simply, "Instead, co-opt it."

Thanks to Mike O'Toole for sending this.

On the run

Got up 0400 Monday and flew to Knoxville TN, for a day of meeting with local economic/development leaders at Steve's side. All this new business forces us to contemplate many possibilities.

Finished day with nice meal and time at Shane Deichman's house.

Slept in a bit Tuesday and when Shane dropped me at Knoxville's airport, I immediately got nervous. I was sked to fly to Atlanta for direct to Madison. All I could think of was thunderstorms and a paying gig in 7 hours and I'm headed in the wrong direction.

Sure enough, the delays begin and T-storms are the culprit. When Delta projects a 10-min layover in Atlanta and I have to go C to F or I wait on 2030 departure to Madison, I back away from gate, have bag pulled, and have Jen rebook me a United into Chicagoland get me a Hertz one-way.

I land at 1410, and walking by 1425, and in the car at 1445. I reach Monona Terrace (conference center) at 5:15. I was supposed to address about 250 at 5:10, but the organizers switched the dinner up and me back.

So I get to hang out with older brother Andy for an hour, share a dinner, meet some local bigs over the meal, and then talk at 1845. I go roughly 80 and then do 15 Q&A. Sign many paper BFAs afterwards (distributed to attendees). More and high-level interaction with this global organization of financial advisers.

Then I bid adieu to brother in lot, jump back in rental and drive 80 to Boscobel to cap off night with my Mom's Scotcheroos and a glass of milk and spirited play with our old family dog Boswell, who's lived with Mom since my Dad passed.

Up this morn for breakfast at Unique Cafe (I had the Unique Au Gratin) with Mom and then drive to Madison for flight out.

Working my column as I go along.

People flows

Coming Anarchy links to NPR's Immigration: Global Hot Spots map.

This map comes from a post called Debunking Global Migration Myths in a true-false format which I don't find to be particularly useful. It would have been more useful to focus on the actual trends and not perceived myths.

Nothing new or shocking here. Many trends Tom has noted before. But still some interesting facts on China, Russia, France, UAE, UK, Germany, Mexico, the Philippines, and the US.

No divided loyalties, no permanent friends

A reader is disappointed by my tendency to link the current push for war with Iran to Israel's consistent arguments toward this end.

The comment is found here. My reply is below.

"Scratch Israel's itch" doesn't qualify as impugning motives, it simply denotes an obvious desire for America to engage in a war on Israel's behalf. I believe that desire, while arguably justified from Israel's calculations, is dangerously unjustified from America's current set of situations and goals. As such, I reject Israel's apparent demand for a zero deductible on strategic risk, something we've never granted an ally, nor should we (including the similarly-incentivized House of Saud).

I simply don't see that stance serving America's long-term interests, nor Israel's. I also believe it unworthy of near-term expenditure of American blood and treasure, two assets we must currently value at a premium.

My consistent criticism of fear mongers falls into the same category. I don't calculate matters of war and peace on the basis of emotion--especially implied guilt.

So I ask readers to please spare me the implied anti-semitism through imagined impugning. Argue the points but skip the tortuous attempts at shaming me into silence.

Israel's 200 nuclear warheads provide all the genocidal capacity it needs to adequately defend itself. This strategic Goliath can hardly pass as David any more, meaning any American obligation to ensure survival was fulfilled long ago.

Now, with such great power comes great responsibility. There are no chosen peoples in such strategic calculations, just immeasurable risk for a species.

We are way beyond anyone's claim on "holy lands" at that point.

Moreover, we're collectively into double digits on holocausts since 1900, so the emotional power of that image hardly absolves anyone from responsibility to contemplate the costs of war. Simply put, it conveys no moral authority whatsoever when we cross over into discussions of nuclear strikes. It merely reminds us of the stakes everyone shares.

I don't believe in dividing my loyalties under any religious or ethnic or ideological garb. Under the right conditions, I'd nuke Dublin or the Vatican in a heartbeat to ensure my country's survival. There are no unique categories. That's what makes MAD so terrifyingly effective. It's also why Israel stockpiles nuclear weapons, so no disingenuousness here--please.

I've been routinely hounded by partisans on both sides of the Israeli-Muslim divide for my "obvious bias," so such transparent attempts to quiet my analysis--consistent in its logic but unsparing in its targeting--are a wasted effort.

I have but one client, and while it has many permanent interests and equities, it has no permanent friends--nor should it in this world.

Such is the necessary but troublesome burden of the Leviathan.

The SysAdmin works in decades

POST: It's Time for an Army Advisor Corps

Nagl is a serious visionary. Well worth the read. Further logical evolution toward the SysAdmin force and function.

Iraq is the "end of American empire" to the hysterics and "the worst foreign policy disaster ever" to the academics.

To clued-in professionals, however, it's just the logical pivot we've been waiting on. None expected it would be easy. Indeed, the pain quotient is what drives the change.

In the end, the trigger matters little, the response is everything.

If you want to engage in this sort of stuff, measure your time in decades, not news cycles.

I know, I know. Everything changes so much "faster" today.

Run with that one if it makes you feel better or more in control, but eschew if you want to retain any clarity of vision.

Thanks to Bill Millan for sending this.

Are they states or nations?

2nd map for the day: US States Renamed For Countries With Similar GDPs

My main thought on viewing this map was: World's oldest multinational economic union indeed.

One Leviathan, many SysAdmins

John Weitzer writes:

Tom - didn't know if you had seen this. Everyone else is a role player. We are the only when left, as you say, that can project force everywhere.

The item (one occurrence):

The World's Top 10 Military Spenders

Monday June 11, 8:26 am ET

By The Associated Press

A Glance at the World's Top 10 Military Spenders
The world's top 10 military spenders in 2006. The list shows the amount each country spent on weapons in 2005 dollars, and the share of world arms expenditures.

1. United States, $528.7 billion, 46 percent
2. Britain, $59.2 billion, 5 percent
3. France, $53.1 billion, 5 percent
4. China, $49.5 billion, 4 percent
5. Japan, $43.7 billion, 4 percent
6. Germany, $37.0 billion, 3 percent
7. Russia, $34.7 billion, 3 percent
8. Italy, $29.9 billion, 3 percent
9. Saudi Arabia, $29.0 billion, 3 percent
10. India, $23.9 billion, 2 percent

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Tom says:

A view of the world: one Leviathan, many SysAdmin helpers.

I say: One more reason not to believe the hype about China as a threat.

PNM and piracy

It's going to be map day here. I've got three for you.

The first one comes courtesy of Rob Johnson: IMB live piracy map 2007.

Like Rob says: Looks a lot like the PNM.

Demographics and limited input

POST: On Demographics, Part 3: Why the Gap will conquer the Core

An analytically-narrow and subpar post from Curzon, who seems to have drunken the Kool-Aid recently on demographics, confusing characteristics/outcomes of economic development with causality (he seems shocked poor people have more babies than rich). The 95 percent number tossed out of nowhere at the end is particularly egregious, flying in the face of the economic reality of the past quarter-century.

Ah, but once you've committed to the Dark Lord ... you've just shut yourself off from the bulk of reality, so you make do with what you can.

Plenty of reasoned analyses of globalization cite the one-third (as I do, as does Chanda in his book "Bound Together") of the planet currently suffering from poor connectivity to globalization. In that one-third you find 80 percent of population growth between now and 2050 (cited in PNM), meaning we go from 6.5B today to about 9.2 and then--by all reasonable predictions--we top off planet-wise at below 9.5 and begin a long, slow decrease. That 80 percent, BTW, won't live so long--on average.

How that planetary pathway equates to the Gap "conquering" the Core, given that the two-thirds living in the Core progressively enjoy the benefits of 90 percent of the wealth and are experiencing the biggest, broadest, and most booming global economy we've ever witnessed (to include 1B new consumers with disposable income emerging in the next decade), is beyond my "optimistic" capacities for doom-and-gloom prognostications fueled by cherry-picked stats.

Beware the single causality explanation for how connectivity--in all its myriad of forms--comes about or fails to come about. A lot of things go into making "destiny."

Chanda's book is a great description of all that growing connectivity over time, including its historical gaps in Asia (recently reconnected) and the Middle East (still struggling). Globalization is unstoppable now simply because too many people are "infected" with the ambitions it enables. Fine to highlight global guerrillas and such, but--as always--you don't want to confuse friction with the force in this only-bad-news-constitutes-real-news media environment. You can't think systematically about the future when you limit your inputs so.

New Esquire article is up

The Americans Have Landed

The word came down suddenly in early January to the fifty or so U.S. troops stationed inside Camp Simba, a Kenyan naval base located on that country's sandy coast: Drop everything and pull everyone back inside the compound wire. Then they were instructed to immediately clear a couple acres of dense forest. Task Force 88, a very secret American special-operations unit, needed to land three CH-53 helicopters.

Check it out

Forgetting Iran is a nice argument

POST: Forget Iran, By Gregory Scoblete

Nice argument.

We debate Israel's preferred war instead of preparing ourselves for a far more likely intervention scenario.

Thanks to Kilngoddess for sending this.

Sick Kim would be good news

ARTICLE: Kim reported in poor health, By Sergei Soukhorukov, LONDON SUNDAY TELEGRAPH, June 11, 2007

Interesting possibility, one we're also poorly prepared for--I fear.

Still, Chris Hill, following Zoellick, have us in a decent place with Beijing on the subject.

It remains my preferred near-term scenario.

Thanks to Louis Heberlein for sending this.

Powell resurfaces to advise presidential candidates

Inevitable, I suppose.

But seriously, how can a guy whose entire fabulous career was so unmarred by any significant accomplishment be so routinely resurrected as wise-man messiah?

If Obama's reaching for that credential, then I'm immediately unimpressed. Powell cannot possible be his answer for a "new" foreign policy that moves past the myopia of the Boomers and 60s crowd.