Comment upgrade: Russia's reset
Thursday, June 21, 2007 at 12:09PM RKKA left this comment on Good sign for Russia's political future:
Um, Tom? The sharply higher death rates reach into people in their thirties. Its not just "old farts" who have paid the price of "reform" with their lives. Couple that with birth rates dropping to a bit more than half their 1992 level by the time Putin took over, and you have a demographic catastrophe that exceeds Stalinism and approaches WWII.
That's what you're brushing off here, and our refusal to realize and acknowlegewhat "reform" has really meant will poison US-Russian relations for years.
Tom wrote:
Your one-note is acknowledged, but comparisons to Stalinism and WWII are just plain indefensible and display a stunning ignorance of history.
You need another pony or another pasture.
Blaming Russia's bottoming-out (with the rebound already begun) on "reforms" is simplistic in the extreme.
The Soviet Union was long shielded from markets and liability. When Russia was suddenly thrust into that world, the country found that much of what it owned was useless, much of what it made was useless, and much of what it knew was useless. Decades of pushing pregnancies yielded to a demographic decline by volition. Comparing that to the tens of millions killed by Hitler or Stalin is nonsense.
What caused Russia's collapse was 70 years of socialism, not reforms, which merely pulled the curtain back on that vast human tragedy. Watching Russia emerge from that disastrous period is like watching America recover after the Civil War or China after the Cultural Revolution: it's a good 25 year shadow.
Socialism was a huge menace to life, liberty, happiness, and wealth in the USSR, just like it was everywhere else.
Russia's population now heads toward a number it can sustain rather than one artificially manufactured by the state. That is not a tragedy. It is a reality Russia imposed on itself.
Saying the reforms caused the collapse is like accusing the chemo of creating the cancer. It plays into silly stabbed-in-the-back fantasies that some in Russia entertain, preferring to blame the USSR's collapse on outsiders. Indulging such fantasies should be avoided at all costs.
Reader Comments (10)
The trouble is, Russia's present condition, and the BS the Russian government is getting from the West while they're recovering, are powerful arguments against would-be Iranian "Reformers". What can they say in reply?
Looks to me like there will be plenty more pissed-off unemployed young adults, with lots more time for plotting revolution if the Iranian government drops the shields against markets and liability.
You have it wrong.
Look at Figure 2 from this article from the New Left Review (how's that for a "neocon" source?):
http://www.newleftreview.org/?page=article&view=2658
You can see the drop-off then growth in all the post-communist countries. The basic pattern is the same for all of them. The ones that were the most thoroughly Stalinized are the ones recovering most slowly.
Tom is right. Communism was poison. The recovery process will be painful.
Anyway, George Kennan predicted this exact thing in the late 40s. He said that social cohesion in the Soviet Union was based solely on state power, which had destroyed everything else, and that once the Party lost control the USSR would go from being a formidable foe to a disorganized mass at a single stroke. He was absolutely right, a prophet. Now they are repairing the damage. It took 70 years to destroy the place. Lets see how long it takes to get it off the hospital gurney.
Iran's demo bomb already exploded. Huge drop in fertility and worst brain drain in world, according to IMF. If and when Iran opens up, someone will erroneously cite that as causality too.
Already blogged all this, so enough remedial education.
One of the American experiments in trying to give Russia experience with entreprenurial efforts involved a State Department effort to foster small community women's local businesses. The women in these locations did not have the Russian male orientation towards big planned government or big macho corporations. Ms. Hillary Clinton helped the experiment in the field. Someone should ask her about her insights.
The technique was not revolutionary. The Mennonites have used it for decades in austere environments which the media just covers for its male violence & hurt pride stories.
Unlike other closed economies (N. Korea, Cuba (sorta), Myanmar), Iran does not have the sort of strong, natural allies that can help to weather the storm with economic aid. Iran is in for a tough ride, methinks.