Tom's column this week

Good impressions of Rudolph Giuliani

With former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani consistently leading early polls for the Republican presidential nomination, pundits have spilled an ocean of ink concerning his electability. Having recently sat down with the man, let me tell you why I consider Giuliani a candidate wholly appropriate for our times.

As someone who spends a lot of time thinking and writing about globalization and security, I was brought in recently by the Giuliani campaign to discuss these topics with the mayor. This is standard practice as presidential candidates gear up, and Giuliani's camp is the fourth I've visited in the last year.

Read on at KnoxNews.
Read on at Scripps Howard.

Scripps Howard edited off the end of Tom's column, so here it is:

Major coastal cities are the dominant nodes of our global economy. Not only do they attract roughly half the world’s population, such megalopolises serve as primary flow points for commerce and immigration through their financial markets, seaports and air hubs. So whether you’re talking about culture clashes, border security, legal compliance, systems integration or economic competitiveness, nowhere do globalization’s major challenges concentrate themselves more than in coastal mega-cities.

In this long war against radical extremism, we can focus on killing bad guys or making our nation more resilient. The former task takes us to the world’s most off-grid locations, while the latter forces us to strengthen our biggest connections to the world’s networks.

Ask yourself what’s more important: fewer criminals or less crime?

As the mayor who resurrected New York City across the 1990s, only to guide it masterfully through the system perturbation that was 9/11, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely qualified for what comes next: the recasting of America as globalization’s most resilient pillar.

Tom says:

I have to say, when Scripps just cuts chunks out of piece, it pisses me off supremely. I submit every column at 720 words and then somebody at Scripps will--on occasion--simply cut for length because they like smaller ones (more like 500-600). Knoxville News, thankfully, doesn't do that.

The cut on the Giuliani one is big and very important, explaining my argument of his credibility as a candidate based on experience. Cut that and the thrust of the article's main claim is left void and null. To me, that sort of editing is just careless.

The usual Scripps trick is to cut all parentheticals. So I stopped using them. Now they just lop off endings when they can't figure out anything else to do.

Impressive.

Betcha Tom Friedman doesn't have to put up with this crap.

Note to self: on next book try to sell 2.5 million copies.

Then they'll rue the day!

Early column sightings:
+ Press of Atlantic City
+ Giuliani 2008

Tantric creativity

Spent hours today going through all my notes and transcripts for next Esquire article, which I owe Warren . . . sometime veeeery soon!

Writing down key points on old Fortran cards (don't ask), I now have a stack about 3 inches thick.

Tomorrow morning I will begin the great sorting--replete with special hat on. Following a son's track meet I start writing tomorrow afternoon, with a big push extending through Monday. Goal is first draft of roughly 6k to Warren COB Monday.

Fallback is Tuesday noon.

July issue already shipping out to printers. As usual, I am likely to be the last guy in the door before it closes.

Yes, that sort of cutting-it-close does worry me, except my problem on this piece is an embarrassment of riches, not a shortage.

Still, I will feel much better once I get the sorting done tomorrow. Even more than the writing, I find those exercises to be the supreme act of creativity--real "beautiful mind" sort of fun where you walk around the office with hundreds of cards spread out on floor and you sort of move through it all, gyrating your brain around all unseen laser beams.

I used to be scared about moments like that: having to step up and be really creative all at once.

Then I realized I put them off to the moment when it starts to subconsciously click for me, which is why those moments always work, which is where my confidence comes from.

Still, I love having a job where you have to get up in the morning and say, "I have to be brilliant between 0700 and 1400!" You know, like you can pencil it in or something!

But seriously, you do have to pencil it in, and the trick in doing that is not mustering some imaginary brilliance that is or isn't there. Rather, it's all in the send-up, which tends to be weeks in the making. I mean, I started writing this piece in my head in early January, when I first broached the idea with Warren.

Call it tantric creativity.

Either that or somebody's been on the road too much lately ....

Catching up to the Israelis' logic on walls

ARTICLE: "U.S. Erects Baghdad Wall To Keep Rival Sects Apart: 'They're trying to isolate us,' says one angry Sunni resident," by Edward Wong and David Cloud, New York Times, 21 April 2007, p. A6.

Echoing Friedman's point about the Palestinian-Israeli struggle playing Spanish Civil War to this Long War (sorry, Fox, you have to come up with a better title to replace the old one): suicide bombers shift to Iraq and now Afghanistan, so why not security walls?

Already the Sunnis are bringing up Native Americans ....

You can almost hear the rueful chuckling in Tel Aviv.

As I said in PNM, I don't mind walls per se, so long as you're trying to disconnect solely in terms of violence. But it's a tricky thing, and it speaks to somebody staying around for a very long time ...

But yeah, we know how to do walls. We've sat on some for decades to get what we wanted.

Tipping points in the journey from the Gap to the Core

ARTICLE: "China's Automakers, With Beijing's Prodding, Show Alternative-Fuel Cars: An unexpected array of hybrids as well as hydrogen power," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 21 April 2007, p. B3.

Here's what I wrote in BFA:

China’s emergence as a manufacturing superpower is already resetting rules throughout the global economy in commodity markets, and its vastly expanding transportation needs, both on the ground (cars) and in the air (airline industry), have the potential to push the Core as a whole in much needed directions of technological innovation. You want to get to the hydrogen age? China’s your best bet, not America. China’s huge growth in automobile traffic over the coming years will push it ever faster toward a tipping point on air pollution, in addition to ratcheting up its dependency on foreign sources of oil to a frightening degree. Neither condition will come about in the United States to anywhere near the same degree. Most important, because China’s in the process of creating a car culture and not recasting one, it’ll be far easier for China to choose the alternative pathway of introducing hybrids and ultimately hydrogen fuel-cell cars far earlier in its growth trajectory. The fact that China will soon represent the world’s largest car market can trigger changes in car cultures the world over, including the United States, making the Core’s transition to the hydrogen age all the faster.

Here's the wow opening to this article:

Chinese automakers, under pressure from the government to produce more fuel-efficient cars, unveiled an unexpectedly broad array of prototypes for fuel-cell cars, gasoline-electric hybrid cars and electric battery cars at the Shanghai auto show on Friday.

The variety and sophistication of the cars showed a striking improvement not just since the last Shanghai auto show two years ago, when Chinese automakers demonstrated scant technological innovation, but even in the months since the Beijing auto show last November.

Universities and technical institutes across China have started advanced vehicle propulsion research programs, combining strong government financial backing with China’s growing ranks of skilled engineers.

China, worried about severe air pollution and rising dependence on imported oil, has already imposed more stringent fuel economy standards than the United States — although not as strict as the semi-voluntary standards in the European Union.

China plans to tighten its standards considerably next year. It has raised its consumption tax to as much as 20 percent on gas guzzlers, while cutting it to 1 percent for cars with small fuel-sipping engines. And it is studying the possibility of tax incentives for buyers of hybrids.

Multinational automakers like General Motors and Volkswagen have begun cooperating closely with Chinese joint venture partners on the development of hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles. Larry Burns, G.M.’s vice president for research and development, said the company was in talks with a Chinese joint venture partner on sharing hydrogen fuel-cell technology as well.

Xu Liuping, the chief executive of Changan Automobile in Chongqing, said the Chinese auto industry was hard working to save energy.

“The speed will be accelerated because available energy supplies are dwindling and because of the environmental protection aspect,” Mr. Xu said in an interview at the Shanghai auto show.

Later, GM's Rick Wagoner says China "may very well be the first country to develop a broad-based fuel-cell infrastructure."

I know, I know. It can never happen . . . until it does.

Necessity is the mother of invention, yes?

How about, instead of sharing missile technology with Russia, we get together with China on car technology?

Uhh ... maybe we already are?

Now that's a greed I approve of.

Russia: Just say no to strategic apartheid!

ARTICLE: "Pentagon Invites Kremlin to Link Missile Systems: A Package of Incentives; U.S. Offer Cooperation on a Defense Project Based in Europe," by Thom Shanker, New York Times, 21 April 2007, p. A1.

First off, strategic missile defense has never worked and shows no signs of working.

Second, this is just an attempt to keep that Cold War program chugging along, sucking up billions, by spreading the wealth.

Third, this is about pork barrel for East Central Europe to bind them to our strategic stance.

Fourth, how can I talk about integrating the Middle East to the world while simultaneously trying to wall it off? Why does rejecting bin Laden's offer of civilizational apartheid somehow translate into offering strategic apartheid in the meantime?

Fifth, Russia doesn't need any protection from Iranian missiles any more than Poland or the Czech Republic do.

This is nothing more than the Defense Department's biggest case of Waste, Fraud and Abuse masquerading as a diplomatic initiative. This has nothing to do with bringing peace to the Middle East or shrinking the Gap and everything to do with keeping defense contractors happy along with their Hill sponsors.

No one is going to strike anybody else with a missile in this day and age, because it's traceable and will lead to massive retaliation. Anyone who wants to blow off a nuke will smuggle it in, not loft it all obvious-like over the borders of several states.

This Reagan-era myth persists only because so much money is to be made on it.

Tell me, who's more likely to nuke Poland based on past history? Israel or Iran? How many millions of Persians were exterminated in Poland?

This is just cynical teet-sucking of the past, instead of serious dealings with the future. Shame on everybody for peddling this.

I'm shocked! (Iraq oil reserves)

ARTICLE: Iraq oil reserves estimate increased, ASSOCIATED PRESS, April 20, 2007

Shocked to discover there's so much more oil in Iraq than previously known!

Tom around the web: premier edition

+ Pride of place to Critt, for sure, for helping me gather up what others have said about DoEE (or the like). Comments from the Conversation Base page feed the Grazr at the wiki (but you do have to click on a feed in the left pane to get results to the right (Anton! ;-)).

+ The Scribe quoted the NPR interview.
+ So did Northern Gleaner.
+ So did Green Coffee.
+ So did Prairie Weather.

+ The World 2 Come linked Tom's Pop!Cast talk.
+ So did Garrick Van Buren.
+ So did Savory Times.
+ So did dan collier.

Tom around the web

+ A Wisconsin Librarian linked The side I've always been on.
+ Flit(tm) linked Searching for the Secretary of Everything Else.
+ And linked India plans on enjoying membership in the big boys' club.
+ Most Serene Republic linked First Kaplan, now Boot wants a Department of Everything Else.
+ And linked Speaking on Interagency today...
+ China Redux linked The China threat I always worry about.
+ ZenPundit linked Last week's column.
+ So did Heritage Tidbits.
+ postpolitical linked My "a-ha" on the Settling the West analogy/metaphor.
+ Nick Guariglia mentioned Tom and the SysAdmin.
+ Dave Porter promotes learning Chinese, with Tom as inspiration.
+ Outside the Beltway linked Bush's post-presidency means we all move on.
+ Ben and Faye's Eurasian Adventure mention Tom and his position on China.
+ Live from Zion says PNM is amazing.
+ Civil War Bookshelf thinks this weblog is 'frivolous to the point of being unreadable' but does interact with the material.
+ Being a former debater briefly, I think this debate weblog recommending reading Tom's weblog for material is fun.
+ House of Chin linked No big surprise on Iranian hostages.
+ American Republic Online linked On second thought ...
+ CP mentioned Tom WRT the environment.
+ One Cosmos mentioned Tom WRT Islam.
+ N=1 linked Plant the flag and give 'em the vector.
+ Cheat Seeking Missiles linked The Big Bang is match play.
+ Kicking Over My Traces linked Allegation: what Tom says 'war' in the ME is REALLY about.
+ And linked Dancing with wolves in Afghanistan.
+ Hidden Unities linked Beware hypocrisy on Darfur, China.
+ Federated Thinkers Union linked The theory of peacefully rising China.
+ In Search of 2nd Tier linked The Brief on YouTube
+ An Assembler's blog has a pretty extensive post on Tom.
+ A SVC Alumnus' Blog linked Rudy is speaking my language.
+ There Is No Second Place linked India plans on enjoying membership in the big boys' club.
+ What the Heck was I Thinking!? thought the Bush Admin search for a czar for Iraq and Afghanistan sounded like the SEVEVELSE.
+ ProgressNow Action quotes Tom's presidential advice from the new Esquire piece.

Glancing blows without any more commentary:

+ SupportImus.org
+ memeorandum
+ Beautiful Horizons
+ Haselwood Library
+ ClearCommentary.com
+ Cyberhillbilly
+ Illinoisans in Support of Mitt Romney for President in 2008!

Now I'm caught up for real!

Tom around the web: Two funny links

In my never-ending search for links to Tom, I found these two humorous ones:

+ First, I found this picture (courtesy of searchmash):

Heck, even the title of the picture, PNMarsupial, is funny.

Came from the post Tom Barnett is a Killer Possum!

(It's all an elaborate mashup with The Truth Laid Bear's weblog ecosystem.)

Not sure it's entirely complimentary, but...

+ The second one is more from the 'What in the world?' department. This weblog is dedicated to monitoring NPR for 'rightwing, pro-government, and corporate bias'. The sidebar says s/he wants 'responsible' public radio. Apparently, this is what do you do when NPR isn't left enough for you. (You know, short of moving to... I don't know where...)

So, I give you Twister for the Twisted (complete with photoshopped Twister images!). Here's a little taste: 'Or maybe Twister for mass murderers. Liane Hansen talks with imperial wunder-boy Thomas Barnett about US foreign policy.'

Wacky.

Phil likes Tom

POST: Barnett from PopTech!(sic)

(Yo, Phil. It's 'Pop!Tech'. I know, funny place to put an exclamation mark ;-)

I just finished watching Thomas Barnett’s talk from PopTech! I like reading Barnett, but watching him is another thing altogether. He’s a very good presenter and very entertaining. If you want a gentle introduction, watch the video. I don’t think the audio would do this talk justice.

There are some other talks on that page that look pretty interesting. Friedman is always good—I had breakfast with him one day at the Governor’s mansion when I was Utah’s CIO. I heard Juan Enriquez at the Governor’s mansion during the Olympics and read his then new book, As the Future Catches You. His latest is a look at a possible future of the US.

Sometime I’d like to have a relaxed conversation with Barnett. I think he’d be very interesting to just hang with for a bit. That’s maybe one of the best, overlooked perks of being governor: the convening power that allows you to spend time with interesting folks and learn from them.

Force structure changes last

POST: The PooBahs Speak

Krepenevich is one smart guy, and these are some great recommendations.

I've said for a while now that the force structure changes last because it takes time for the operational experience to pile up and force change in training, then doctrine, then scenarios for planning and then finally in acquisitions.

Very good stuff to see start unfolding.

Thanks to Brad B. for sending this.

The climate-change approach that makes sense to me

ARTICLE: "Singing the Praises of a New Asia: Lawrence Summers Finds a Theme and a Receptive Audience," by Heather Timmons, New York Times, 19 April 2007, p. C5.

I let the great man (I am an unabashed fan) speak for himself (as paraphrased and quoted:

[telling hundreds of execs] that most of the action on global warming needed to "take place in the developing world."

The industrial world was responsible for much of the problem, he said, but most of the solutions must come from the developing world, where emissions are growing the fastest and infrastructure is still unbuilt. The developing world should be compensated and supported for taking actions "in the interest of all," he said.

Other themes he sounded:

... that growth and changes in Asia are the most important thing to happen during our lifetimes, that the United States and Europe have not yet appreciated the impact of these changes and that the global imbalances from the United States' current-account ... could have severe consequences.

Or present someone with "severe" opportunities that dovetail nicely with his advice on global warming responses:

In Beijing this January, he asked hundreds of economists and policy makers at a Global Development Network conference to consider the fact that $2 trillion from developing Asia invested in United States Treasury bills, was making a "zero real return." Imagine instead, he said, "all the opportunities in these countries for productive investments."

The big shift comes on investment flows, in part in response to rising energy infrastructure requirements, and therein lies the best and most logical response plan: take advantage of Asia's build-out to create infrastructure most appropriate to CO2 savings, and then use those resulting companies (the build-out will be so vast that a roll-up season--meaning lotsa mergers and acquisitions--ensues in global construction and transportation
and energy (and any infrastructure-determined industries) and those new behemoths will spread these new technologies to the Gap in coming decades.

Our job? Encouraging such developments with the creation and spreading of the best possible rule sets.

Best American Political Writing 2007!

Whew!

That took longer than expected!

Got nice email today from editor of series, Royce Flippin. I make into this year's issue, just barely getting in under the wire with "State of the World" in the current issue of Esquire.

I got in 2005 with my "Mr. President" piece and in 2006 with the "Chinese Are Our Friends," so this makes 3 years in a row.

Very nice honor, glad to accept it on behalf of Esquire.

No quick fix. Keep the board in play

ARTICLE: Defying a Clan Code of Silence on Unspeakable Crimes, By ISABEL KERSHNER, New York Times, April 20, 2007

The honor killings stuff isn't new to us. It's just something we got rid of a long time ago because it's so phenomenally backward and inefficient and medieval.

Traditional Muslims who hold on to this practice do so because it's a basic way for males to dominate females--pure and simple.

As modernity creeps into traditional societies--here, the proximity of Israel is the trigger--the ancient rule set is revealed in its barbarity and increasingly condemned by those parts of society who have moved on.

Here, you get the classic yin-yang on Israel though: its very presence perturbs the Arab system and yet those within that community who see the extreme injustice want hated Israel to be the progressive agent of change.

After decades of both that plus constantly being attacked and threatened with destruction for its "evilness," it's not hard to see why Israel builds a wall.

And yet the wall won't bring the necessary change, but delay it.

That's why I vote for anything that keeps the board in play. That's why I still support the decision to topple Saddam. But that's also why I want something far more imaginative outta Bush than just variation after variation on "staying the course" on Iraq.

Thanks to Dan Hare for sending this.

Watch Nick Jr., see the future of globalization's content

TELEVISION: "Cartoons With Heart ... and a Little Mandarin," by Michael Davis, New York Times, 15 April 2007, p. AR32.

You can always spot the future, in demographic terms, by watching children's TV.

The first glimpses of the rising Sino quotient are generated by Chinese Americans operating in our mass media. Amy Tan's PBS series about the "Chinese Siamese cat," called "Sagwa," was a ground breaker.

Now we have "Ni Hao, Kai-lan!" (or "Hello Kai-lan!) from a second-generation Chinese woman who--none too surprisingly--writes about what she knows: her bicultural childhood. The show will start in August.

The rise of the Chinese-American role model comes just in time for this father of a Chinese-American household. Vonne Mei is always captivated by Chinese faces in mass media (you have no idea how big "Mulan" can be when there's so little out there to grab a hold of).

Vocabulary will be a big part of this show, basically tutoring kids in beginning Mandarin. This just follows the rising trend of kids taking Chinese in primary and secondary schools, which in turn will generate a flood of tertiary school training within a generation.

But understand this: these opening bids by Chinese-Americans will inevitably be overwhelmed by a flood of such efforts coming out of China itself in coming years, especially in animation, where China sees how effectively Japan and South Korea export their mass media in anime and video games.

Meanwhile, the creator of "Kai-lan" hopes the series will have a "special resonance for the estimated 60,000 girls in the United States who have been adopted from Chinese orphannages," or what I called in BFA a small army of Tiger Woods-like powerhouses soon to be released upon American society (go figure, as they all live in mid-to-upper-income families where most are single kids of older parents who will spare no money on their success). The Chinese-American girl who voices the lead character has a bio exactly like Mei Mei's (left on doorstep in infancy and adopted by American couple at 8 months).

Rest assured, Vonne and I will make the same over-the-top effort with Mei. I like to say that we have four "single," all of whom share the same problem: they have three siblings.

Now, at least, Mei Mei will have some of the same role-model opportunities that the other three have long enjoyed.

As I often say in my brief, I've got one Asian kid and three kids turning Asian.

Edwards segment airs on Monday on XM

My trip to Hawaii was a hard one because I started out with a double-ear infection. When I got back I thought I was doing well, but then woke up today with a pretty vigorous sinus infection and I'm realizing the antibiotic I'm using just ain't doing the trick.

But . . . I did drag myself out of bed just in time to have my wife drive me to the local rock radio station where I taped the segment with Edwards. I was in an intense fog throughout, but seemed to perform well enough to make the producer inquire about my next piece for Esquire.

It'll air Monday, they say. Have no idea how long I went.

Meanwhile, I'll go see my doc and work hard to get myself in shape so I can churn out a first draft of this next article over the weekend/Monday. I am in survival mode.

Tomorrow with Bob Edwards on XM at 1000 EST

Not sure if I'm live or taping, but it's Bob Edwards, and it's XM (which we get and love in both our Hondas).

Talking "State of the World." He's on 133.

Then I disappear until COB Monday, when I owe Warren the draft of my next piece for the July issue.

I plan on pulling out some hair... but also getting it done.

Glad to be back from Hawaii. I really don't want to see any of the world for a while...

"Under the Bridge" is the big time for this Boscobel boy

Mom leaves me message on cell: the famous "Under the Bridge" column of the Boscobel Dial, my hometown paper, is wall-to-wall excerpts from my "State of the World" piece in the May issue of Esquire.

To you, nothing.

To me, priceless.

Happens just as my Mom is trying to sell her house (I spent three years of HS there) and move to the Twin Cities to live with one of my sisters. When that happens, it won't much matter if I can't go home again. There just won't be a home there.

So I'm glad I worked in this lifetime achievement quasi-award while Mom was still there, getting the Dial.

Kirkuk is a wildcard

MIDDLE EAST REPORT: Iraq and the Kurds: Resolving the Kirkuk Crisis, International Crisis Group, 19 April 2007

Kirkuk is a wildcard I mention in the "State of the World" piece. This is a solid description of the issue and its potential impact on Iraq and the region.

Thanks to sbahadir for sending this.

Downshifting the language is a mistake

ARTICLE: Message-Minded Admiral Ditches 'Long War' Phrase, By RICHARD LARDNER, The Tampa Tribune, Apr 19, 2007

To me, downshifting the language is a mistake. It's an attempt to seek short-term morale relief while appeasing the popular desire to not engage in long-term involvement in the region. To me, that was Abizaid being honest with the American public and casting the conflict in decades-long terms while avoiding the "global" moniker, which I always found hyperbolic.

There's always the impetus to change things when you assume command: it displays your decisiveness and makes your stamp. But the problem is that we need more consistency than course changes in this lengthy process, and the surest sign that the Americans are--once again--coming up with some new definition of grand strategy for this conflict is reaching for a new name.

I honestly think this just makes us look bad, like we're chasing the "strategic communications" victory more than anything else. Then again, it's the mass media nature of the coverage: there has to be a new tag line every couple of months.

But if I'm a local in the Gulf, this sounds like the Americans are no longer in this for the long haul, and so I start hedging even more. I wonder if that dynamic isn't more damaging than the PR-implications of the old phrase.

I guess what worries me most is the sense that the Bush administration, in okaying this shift, is basically abandoning the concept of a grand strategy for the region. I worry that it reflects the breakdown in coordination across the government and that it's now every slogan for itself.

But that may just be the pessimist in me after a red-eye.