Tipping points in the journey from the Gap to the Core

ARTICLE: "China's Automakers, With Beijing's Prodding, Show Alternative-Fuel Cars: An unexpected array of hybrids as well as hydrogen power," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 21 April 2007, p. B3.

Here's what I wrote in BFA:

China’s emergence as a manufacturing superpower is already resetting rules throughout the global economy in commodity markets, and its vastly expanding transportation needs, both on the ground (cars) and in the air (airline industry), have the potential to push the Core as a whole in much needed directions of technological innovation. You want to get to the hydrogen age? China’s your best bet, not America. China’s huge growth in automobile traffic over the coming years will push it ever faster toward a tipping point on air pollution, in addition to ratcheting up its dependency on foreign sources of oil to a frightening degree. Neither condition will come about in the United States to anywhere near the same degree. Most important, because China’s in the process of creating a car culture and not recasting one, it’ll be far easier for China to choose the alternative pathway of introducing hybrids and ultimately hydrogen fuel-cell cars far earlier in its growth trajectory. The fact that China will soon represent the world’s largest car market can trigger changes in car cultures the world over, including the United States, making the Core’s transition to the hydrogen age all the faster.

Here's the wow opening to this article:

Chinese automakers, under pressure from the government to produce more fuel-efficient cars, unveiled an unexpectedly broad array of prototypes for fuel-cell cars, gasoline-electric hybrid cars and electric battery cars at the Shanghai auto show on Friday.

The variety and sophistication of the cars showed a striking improvement not just since the last Shanghai auto show two years ago, when Chinese automakers demonstrated scant technological innovation, but even in the months since the Beijing auto show last November.

Universities and technical institutes across China have started advanced vehicle propulsion research programs, combining strong government financial backing with China’s growing ranks of skilled engineers.

China, worried about severe air pollution and rising dependence on imported oil, has already imposed more stringent fuel economy standards than the United States — although not as strict as the semi-voluntary standards in the European Union.

China plans to tighten its standards considerably next year. It has raised its consumption tax to as much as 20 percent on gas guzzlers, while cutting it to 1 percent for cars with small fuel-sipping engines. And it is studying the possibility of tax incentives for buyers of hybrids.

Multinational automakers like General Motors and Volkswagen have begun cooperating closely with Chinese joint venture partners on the development of hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles. Larry Burns, G.M.’s vice president for research and development, said the company was in talks with a Chinese joint venture partner on sharing hydrogen fuel-cell technology as well.

Xu Liuping, the chief executive of Changan Automobile in Chongqing, said the Chinese auto industry was hard working to save energy.

“The speed will be accelerated because available energy supplies are dwindling and because of the environmental protection aspect,” Mr. Xu said in an interview at the Shanghai auto show.

Later, GM's Rick Wagoner says China "may very well be the first country to develop a broad-based fuel-cell infrastructure."

I know, I know. It can never happen . . . until it does.

Necessity is the mother of invention, yes?

How about, instead of sharing missile technology with Russia, we get together with China on car technology?

Uhh ... maybe we already are?

Now that's a greed I approve of.

Comments

[Brian H]

Much as I dislike Ayn Rand's money=ethics formulation, there's a certain appeal to that formulation in this instance, no?