Dateline: Marriott Hotel, Falls Church VA, 12 April 2005
I am stationary once more.
Sunday was another marathon of house-perusing that ended badly, leading to another day in the trenches on Monday, seguing into SWA flight after SWA flight, subjecting others to interview and submitting myself, then finally to a full stop in this hotel room.
If we spent Saturday investigating the south and east of Indy (to include its northern urban slice), then Sunday was all north and west of Indy. It was getting more unfocused by the moment, reflecting a decision process that was ugly but necessary. Before deciding where we wanted to live in the Indy vicinity, I needed to rule out all the negatives, no's and over-my-dead-bodies. Frustrating as hell, and ending with the day's only house viewing that was a complete waste of time. Once back in Terre Haute, I took out my frustration with the agent by phone, in effect threatening to fire her in the same way that Vonne had threatened to fire me on the phone minutes earlier. I went to bed convinced I was heading home on my flight with no further effort.
I was wrong.
While my father-in-law drove me to the airport early on Monday, Vonne called me and asked where I was viewing today, signaling her strong desire that I go back to zero (or "6 o'clock" on the Indy clock, meaning due south). So I move back my flight to Providence, get ahold of Gloria, and we set up a number of viewings. In the end, I see only one house, which is fantastic on so many levels, and epitomizes the option to go rural in a big way. I am close to making an offer right on the spot, but a long talk with Vonne makes clear to me that: 1) when confronted with the reality of that option, Vonne may not actually reach for it, for a lot of good reasons connected with our kids; and 2) I was done for this trip and now that the decision has been made that we'll land somewhere south of Indy (to keep our goals of preferred Catholic grade and high schools), the decision-making now shifts to her on execution. Strategy man is done, execution specialist is teed up. Vonne goes in two weeks. Between now and then I finish the book and write the first big feature for Esquire, both of which are looking good.
I get home yesterday around 9pm, and spend a good 90 minutes getting the dump from my two oldest. Then I talk things out more with Vonne. All is resynched.
Up this morning to deliver the kids to school, make a Home Depot run, then off to airport to fly back to BWI on SWA. Rental to DC to do interview with retired Army flag for Esquire. With my new timeline construct, the interview is much more focused and I feel awfully good about it afterwards.
Evening is a long meal with three senior writers/editors with various Pentagon industry newspapers, at their invitation. Great restaurant (Galileo) and a long, fun interaction, where I actually catch myself starting a sentence with, "As a journalist . . ."
Would go on longer, but have to get up and deliver speech to Navy audience at 0800, a talk set up by my speaking agency.
Here's my accumulated stories over last few days.
-->"Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries: Japan and Taiwan share concerns over Beijing's military modernization plan," by Jim Yardly and Thom Shanker, NYT, 8 April 05, p. A3.
-->"China Builds a Smaller, Stronger Military: Modernization Could Alter Regional Balance of Power, Raising Stakes for U.S.," by Edward Cody, WP, 12 April 05, p. A1.
-->"Crouching Tiger, Swimming Dragon: Will China play nice in the Persian Gulf?" op-ed by Nayan Chanda, NYT, 11 April 05, p. A23.
-->"Search for New Crude Turns Perilous: U.S. Strategic and Diplomatic Thinking Adjusts to Handle Hot Spots With Oil Potential," by John J. Fialka, WSJ, 11 April 05, p. A4.
-->"Beijing Is Striving To Cool Hostility Toward Japanese," by Jason Dean et. al, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A18.
-->"U.S., China Agree To Regular Talks: Senior-Level Meetings to Focus on Politics, Security, Possibly Economics," by Glenn Kessler, WP, 8 April 05, p. A14.
China builds a military that's clearly designed to counter our ability to do whatever we damn well please in Asia. Hard to believe, isn't it? Doesn't being the world's Leviathan mean we get to have everyone unable to stand up to us no matter what we do or where we do it? No, it just means it's impossible to wage war successfully unless the U.S. agrees to that proposition. That's real power all right, it's just not unlimited with regard to our own desires. Being Leviathan doesn't mean you're God, just that you can prevent anyone else from assuming that role on anything significant.
When someone gets to the point of accumulating power that calls into question your ability on some specific issue, then you have to start viewing both the rising power and the issue in question differently. We are not doing this yet. We see only the danger, not the possibility. We ask, Will China "behave" in the Gulf? Hopefully not like America does! One Big Banger in the region is enough, I would say.
China's just waking up to a world in which the Core relies on the unstable regions of the Gap for its short-term economic security via energy. You can change that dependency if you want, but it will take some time. Other route is to work the issue with military, but that's takes a military, now doesn't it? We've got one, so we work it. China doesn't, so it's getting one. Sound odd to you? Sounds pretty "real" to me.
But hey, at least we're talking regularly in the future . . . on politics (all theirs, of course), on security (all ours, of course) and even . . . on economics! Man, do you think they're all connected somehow?
Normally, I would say State would find a way to screw up such a conversation (not that it should go to Defense, cause there's still too many Neocons there able to screw it up worse-though the load lightens with time), but I am glad to hear Robert Zoellick is running that show for now. He sees connectivity in all forms. Smart guy, good post for him, right time to start this conversation.
Good luck Mr. Zoellick!
-->"India and China Are Poised to Share a Defining Moment: As trade grows, onetime rivals may hold lessons for other developing nations," by Somini Sengupta and Howard W. French, NYT, 10 April 05, p. A6.
-->"India and China Agree to Resolve Decades of Border Disputes," by Somini Sengupta, NYT, 12 April 05, p. A8.
-->"China and India Declare Era of Cooperation: At Summit, Leaders Agree To Work on Border Disputes, Clear Path to Boost Trade," by John Larkin, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A18.
-->"India, China Hoping to 'Reshape the World Order' Together: Once-Hostile Giants Sign Accords on Border Talks, Economic Ties, Trade and Technology," by John Lancaster, 12 April 05, p. A16.
China and India waking up to their own sense of collective power is a big theme for my in-process book, Blueprint for Action, and we're seeing it on display big time in PM Wen Jiabao's historic trip to India. The two countries already realize their collective buying power on energy, and Wen openly spoke of their collective brainpower on IT.
I know, I know, border disputes and all will keep certain countries at each other's throats forever . . . until the economic connectivity overwhelms, like it's doing right now with these two. Then, decades and centuries of this-and-that disappear like so much water off a duck's back.
America's waking up to the reality of both countries' "rise," seeking out the right venues of cooperation with India on military and finally moving on commensurate sort of summiteering with China, which frankly should occur at the presidential level, not the #2 at State. But we have a long way to go. These two countries will represent the two most important relationships we have in the coming decades, and what will be hardest for us to take in all of this is understanding how much more they are like us and we are like them than we are like many other states we have long called our best allies.
India and China are ahead of us in all this understanding-at least among themselves. We need to catch up and catch up fast. BFA aims to trigger such a catch-up-big time. China and India and the New Core in general will "reshape the world order" in coming decades. We need to decide how much we want to be part of that process.
-->"Insider Chides Kremlin Over Policies: Government Adviser Warns Of Venezuela-Style Trouble Amid Dismantling of Yukos," by Gregory L. White, WSJ, 8 April 05, p. A11.
-->"Russian Banks Prove Tempting: Sale of Tiny KMB Underscores Interest in Country's Growth Story," by Guy Chazan, WSJ, 5 April 05, p. C14.
-->"Putin Rallies Youth Support: Kremlin Applies Lesson From Toppled Neighboring Governments," by Alan Cullison, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A18.
-->"BP Russia Venture Faces More Taxes: Bill for $790 Million Comes After a Pledge by Putin To Rein In Revenue Officials," by Gregory L. White and Guy Chazan, WSJ, 12 April 05, p. A3.
Even political insiders are having trouble holding their tongues on where Russia is going under Putin. Andrei Illarionov has a big mouth to match his big mind, and he sees Russia heading toward Venezuela instead of the EU, and he's worried Putin hasn't a clue about how he's ruining business trust.
It's not totally gone; any place where foreign firms are willing to buy up local banks still holds plenty of promise. But Putin's looking desperate and scared: he knows how to hold onto to power but not much else. Being KGB-trained, he trusts power and distrusts businessmen, but in the end, Putin needs to go and the businessmen need to run things a whole lot more. If you can't trust the capitalists, there's no capital to speak of, because capital is mostly about trust.
So Putin reaches for the young, in a defensive move to stop any orange-ish revolution from occurring in Russia, like it did in Ukraine. But that's trying to prevent a bad future, not build a good one. Putin's appealing to fear, not hope. He's got to come to the same conclusion Gorbachev and Yeltsin did: the system will survive without me. The reason why so many in Russia give Putin a pass is because it's hard for Russians to think a system can survive without strong leadership. They simply don't trust themselves, and that's the real trust that drives capitalism-a faith in people over leadership. It's what defines any great capitalist culture, including ours. It allows a public to basically go about their business with little fear or delusion that leaders run much of anything-even here. That's a huge leap for Russia, but it's coming generation by generation. Putin is a lesser Yeltsin, who was a lesser Gorby and so on. Each version gets paler, while each generation of Russians grows more confident.
Meanwhile, foreign firms like BP need to stand up to the "tax terrorism" and make it clear to Putin, this will kill connectivity and he'll pay for that loss in the end.
-->"India Senses Patent Appeal: Local Companies Envision Benefits in Stronger Protections," by Eric Bellman, WSJ, 11 April 05, p. A20.
This story was so easy to predict: before you join the Core you're all, "patents are to protect the rich and rip off the poor," and after you join the global economy in a big way and become interdependent with other advanced economies, then it's all "patents are only fair and where's my lawyer?"
Articles on China have been appearing for a while on this subject, so now here comes the same ones about India.
That's getting to be a pattern: see the "inconceivable" article on China one week ("Commies seek patent protection!"), and look for its repeat on India the next.
-->"Democracy Drive By America Meets Reality in Egypt: U.S. Funds Mideast Activists, But in Cairo, Strong Ties To Regime Limit the Effort," by Neil King Jr., WSJ, 11 April 05, p. A1.
Tricky business, spreading democracy. You can issue the grants, but if receiving one marks you as a "traitor," then the money isn't exactly the issue, now is it? It always amazes me how the U.S. thinks it can blithely send money to influence other countries' elections, but when anyone tries even the slightest sort of influence in our elections, it's considered prettin' near a political invasion! Remember when the Chinese got caught trying to influence some Congressional elections with money? Can you imagine something like that? People trying to buy a Congressional election in the U.S.? Well, it was a big to-do, with lots of accusations and strong talk about teaching those Chinese a lesson.
Moreover, whenever any other great power tries to influence a local election, something we do with fundamentally no self-awareness, much less self-doubt (watch us try to torpedo Daniel Ortega's run for the presidency in Nicaragua), we get all bent out of shape and start talking such-and-such-country's rising "imperialism" and whatnot. I mean, how can you give Mubarek billions year and year without any questions and then start funding opposition parties and not seem hypocritical on that basis alone, much less our usual pot-calling-the-kettle-black shtick.
Don't get me wrong, I like seeing us spend our money this way, I just wish we wouldn't act so naÔve when others do the same darn thing-including to us.
Easy to pull off? No. But let's stand for what we stand for-democracy. And let's not pretend we don't live in a highly interconnected world where we're not the only great power which desires to do these things or where others don't naturally seek to influence our own elections and politics.
-->"A Daunting Search: Tracking a Deadly Virus in Angola: Children are dying. Beyond that, facts are hard to come by," by Sharon LaFraniere and Denise Grady, NYT, 12 April 05, p. A3.
So much focus on Avian Flu as the next possible great source of a pandemic, we tend to forget that a real pandemic needs a strange mix of disconnectedness and connectedness to unfold. A certain amount of disconnectedness is required at first to let the spread of the disease to take root without the system mounting a vigorous response, and Africa is the perfect place for that to occur, as the Core's pain threshold on that deep interior of the Gap is amply displayed time and time again on a host of issues and conflicts.
But once it takes roots, then you need just enough connectedness, and international air travel is just about perfect in that regard, for the disease to spread in a chaotic but path-dependent sort of way.
It bears watching in a way that Avian Flu does not, because SE Asia is connected enough to the world economically that a certain global response is guaranteed, if only by the locals' fear of losing business with the world. You don't get that sense with Angola, and that's when the fear creeps in.
Monday, April 18, 2005 at 6:45PM 
