Progress on the HIV vaccine

U.S. NEWS: "Vaccine Shows Promise in Preventing HIV Infection: Thai Experiment Represents 'Modest' Success but Offers Much-Needed Encouragement After Decades of Failed Efforts," by Gautam Naik, Wall Street Journal,, 25 September 2009.

Charts:

AIDS deaths rises from about 200k worldwide in 1990 to about 1.75m in 2005, and then tops off, dropping as steadily over 2006-07 as it rose over 2003-04.

Living with HIV 2007: 2m Old Core West, 1.5m former Sov bloc, 5m in Asia, 380 in Middle East/North Africa, 74k Oceania, 2.0m Latin America, and 22m in sub-Saharan Africa--or about two-thirds the total.

So no question about where the vaccine will do the most good.

50m orphans in Africa, with expectations that total doubles in foreseeable future.

The upside on the stimulus spending: movement on the smart grid

MARKETPLACE: "Stimulus Funds Speed Transformation Toward 'Smart Grid': (1) High-Tech Firms Seek Out Utilities As They Upgrade," by Rebecca Smith and Ben Worthen and (2) "New Appliances, in Sync With Meters, Shift to Energy-Saving Modes When Told," by Rebecca Smith, Wall Street Journal, 28 September 2009.

The inefficiencies to be wrung out of our energy networks are simply staggering.

The key? "Killer apps" that equate to immediate savings for consumers. If incentivized, behavior changes very quickly.

The Chinese making money off China's demand for resources

MONEY & INVESTING: "China Sovereign Fund Bets Big on Resources," by Rick Carew and Tom Wright, Wall Street Journal, 24 September 2009.

The bastards get it coming AND going!

Pretty smart, actually.

The competition for eyeballs in China encourages respect for IP

BUSINESS: "An assault on online piracy in China: Public morals and private property; Chinese websites come to the defence of Western intellectual property," The Economist< 26 September 2009.

A lot of Western media content can't be found in Chinese theaters and TVs, but it can be easily located on Chinese websites.

Here's the trick:

Because foreign entertainment companies cannot sell their products in China, they cannot claim damages from pirates.

Now, Chinese web-site litigants are working with Western interests to sue Chinese sites that are stealing both eyeballs (from their Chinese competitors) and content (from the West).

Count on greed, baby!

Surfacing (part two)

Actually, the weekend went less well than I stated previously, in that I once again had a severe list of reactions to a narcotic painkiller (itchy beyond belief, the difficulty breathing [a nice combo when my internal pads got blood-soaked and dropped down into my nasal cavities after one particularly bloody bout of vomiting], and the usual ennui [stuff makes me really weird, but fortunately, Vonne loves to talk all night long while I pace the bedroom like a caged animal]). I got permission from my doc Saturday morning to tweezer out the descended pads, because I thought I would just about go nuts pretending I could keep them in until Thursday (whence next we meet). I thereupon also quit the Vicodin, certain that the pain wasn't bad.

My rectitude didn't last, because the headaches got severe Sat night and again Sunday afternoon, but by Sunday night I knew I simply had to flush the remaining Vicodin (I've done this after other surgeries) and ask my doc for something non-narcotic, which I got today. Amazing how quickly all the side-effects disappear. Despite my checkered youth (actually, pretty bad), I have no stomach--or brain--for self-abuse of that sort anymore. A nice martini is about as far out on a limb as I care to climb.

So today (Monday) has been the big turnaround: hopefully my last bout of upchucking and commensurate bleeding and a glidepath that is truly sustainable. Look! I am writing somewhat coherently again. What got me over the hump was watching Ocean's 11, 12 and 13 in sequence--truly brain clearing in the best way. Plus, those are extremely fun movies.

Good timing on the recovery, as I need to start writing my Esquire column tomorrow and conduct an Enterra training session by phone on Wednesday.

No rest for the wicked, and no narcotics either.

Now to cheer on my Saints, the great hope of the ABF crowd (anybody but Favre) in the NFC. On the AFC side, I think it's my Colts (Peyton, my new religion at QB, and yes, he will inevitably break all of Brett's records--save INTs) and the Pats that matter. Going to be an interesting rest of the season.

Thankfully, now that the Favre thing is over for the Pack (thank you, scheduling gods!), I still see a good chance at 10-11 wins, meaning we may yet get another crack at the Old Man.

And yes, I know we can beat him--even at the Hump. After two queer efforts that largely consisted of beating ourselves up, I think we're ready to move beyond--unless McCarthy tries that same disastrous first-half game plan three times in a row!

But odds are, the Saints will have the top seed and we'll be sacrificed to the football gods down there. Alas, no home playoff tix for me, but January will be--thankfully--a busy month.

Finally, apologies from Sean and I regarding the website operation these past couple days. Usual BS with the host. Sean working tirelessly. We know comments and stuff have suffered. But all is being worked out.

Tom around the web

+ Free Iran Now linked 'So Iran Caved on the Bomb. What Now ?'
+ So did zenpundit.

+ FeralJundi embedded the TED video.
+ The Combat Operator linked Feral Jundi.
+ imminent metaphor liked the TED video.

+ Wormtown Taxi has a nice post about Tom's thinking.

+ weston linked PNM over on MetaFilter and our own artlung (whose user number is almost as low as mine ;-) weighed in.
+ Race for 2012 (ugh ;-) linked China will not rule the world.
+ Undercover Blue linked Building the Sys Admin force on the fly in Iraq.
+ Super Punch linked Losing my mind.
+ A little conversation about Tom broke out in some Yglesias comments.
+ Pathfinder Crossfit linked Military-Market Nexus.
+
RC Update is reading PNM (in Afghanistan, I think).
+ Cobbquoted a recent post about Japan and China.
+ Drive Time Happy Hour linked Why Joe Biden's War Plan Spells the Rebirth of Al Qaeda.
+ Internet Anthropologist Think Tank reprinted Fear of a Pashtun state.
+ CyclopsWarrior reprinted 'The Man Between War and Peace'.

Opportunity passing for Obama on Afghanistan

The upshot of Abdullah pulling out is: 1) we couldn't prevent Karzai from cheating his way to victory in the first election; and 2) we couldn't strong-arm Karzai into accepting a coalition with Abdullah (Kerry's mission to arm-twist for a second round has now backfired completely).

So the question begs: with those two pronounced failures, what makes us think we're going to ever get a strong partner in Karzai?

If I'm advising Obama and pushing for a smaller effort, I push very hard right now to take advantage of this fiasco. I shift my money overtly to Pakistan and say, "We have to work with governments that can at least make a decent show of democracy."

Is our concern really about democracy? Not so much as competency. Karzai is just competent enough to cheat his way to victory but not competent to keep the country together or rule it in an uncorrupt fashion.

So I see an opportunity passing here, unless we were to get very tough and then we negotiate further from that point.

But, as always, the State Department pipes in with the clumsiest of congratulations, demonstrating we know how to pick sides in disputed events (and that Honduras wasn't a fluke but the normal ham-handedness).

As it is, I see us approaching the "victorious" Karzai with less-than-zero leverage now--if we choose to reward his non-win with more money and more troops.

Ironically enough, I don't see this outcome playing well for us in terms of regionalizing the solution set. If I'm a regional power and witness this turn of events, I imagine the U.S. owns Karzai, so why bother? Of course, I believe the opposite to be true, thus we're screwed all the more.

First impression after a narcotic-filled weekend, but I see this development as bad, bad, bad.

And if I was Obama looking to leave, I would take advantage.

When Contractors Fill America's Foreign Policy Gap

Much ink has been spilt over the question of whether or not globalization leads to the "death" of the nation-state, or at least its eclipse by a rising tide of super-empowered non-state actors -- especially multinational corporations. On this score, history has been fairly clear: States that score high on globalization connectivity typically feature governments with extensive regulatory reach and strong enforcement capacity -- not exactly the demise of the public sector.

Continue reading today's New Rules column at WPR.

The Revolutionary Guards are really in charge

ARTICLE: Iran Is Said to Arrest Wives of Many Prominent Detainees, By NAZILA FATHI, New York Times, October 23, 2009

Very clear sign that the Revolutionary Guards aren't hiding the fact that they're in charge: they're unafraid to announce that dominance even at supposedly off-limit sites (or with regard to previously off-limit targets):

Iranian authorities arrested the wives and family members of a number of high-profile political detainees at a religious ceremony in Tehran, several reformist Web sites reported Friday.

When mullahs now complain, it's like listening to Trotsky in late-1920s USSR--so very OBE.

Expect more attacks in Iraq

ARTICLE: Bombings in Iraq, Deadliest Since 2007, Raise Security Issue, By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS, New York Times, October 25, 2009

A disturbing but inescapable truth:

Iraqi and American officials in Baghdad have repeatedly warned about a potential rise in violence as the Jan. 16 parliamentary elections approach, as political parties and their allies vie for advantage and insurgent groups redouble their efforts to destabilize the country.

So expect more high-profile attacks as regime opponents seek to prove the continued relevancy.

State, the Clue-phone's for you...

ARTICLE: Iran Delays Its Decision on Shipping Nuclear Fuel, By DAVID E. SANGER, New York Times, October 23, 2009

NEWS ANALYSIS: Both Iran and West Fear a Trap on Deal, By DAVID E. SANGER, New York Times, October 25, 2009

Glass-half-full argument on Iranian dithering, from those now accused of it by their opponents here in the States:

"We think we've created a debate within Iran," one senior administration official said. "And that's what some of these negotiations are all about: making the Iranian people decide whether their nuclear ambitions are worth the price."

My sense is that Iran has answered that question "Yes" so many times that hoping for otherwise is not smart.

But yes, I think the offer created a debate inside Iran.

As for how much time we give them to decide, it really doesn't matter whatsoever.

Iran is on the glidepath to a bomb. The only question is the timing of the revelation and under what conditions (truly broke out or just latent). There we have influence, but not on the reach for the bomb itself.

For good examples of the "public fissures" opened, see the second piece.

But when State's Nicholas Burns declares that the Iranians "are really on the defensive," that bit I find laughable.

When you want your capability known so that it's deterrent value is recognized, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A DAMAGING REVELATION.

Get a clue, Nick.

Cavalry:horses::SysAdmin:helos

ARTICLE: 14 Americans Die in Afghan Helicopter Crashes, By DEXTER FILKINS, New York Times, October 26, 2009

Old story, and I wrote a Scripps column to this effect: when, in the past, we suffered such losses with tactical aircraft, the Pentagon would spend money like water to figure out the problems and fix. But with fixed rotary, no such priority ever seems to emerge.

I do remember vividly flying high up in the mountains in central Afghanistan in late 2007 and it struck me that the helos were working overtime in that high-altitude (less air to push), plus the pilots were always hugging the landscape and flying so fast to avoid taking any rockets. I hear that all the time from the industry: that is one tough environment to be working helos so heavily, and yet, force structure-wise, there's no question fixed rotary is the long pole in the tent of operations.

The SysAdmin rides in a helo.

'Family Guy' is out of gas

ARTICLE: Window Closes on 'Family Guy' Special, By BRIAN STELTER; Compiled by DAVE ITZKOFF, New York Times, October 27, 2009

Frankly, I'm with Microsoft on this one. "Family Guy" stopped being funny about two years ago. You watch the old episodes and you see real cleverness, but lately it's just crass, crass, crass with no wit.

McFarland is seriously out of gas. Just watch "American Dad" and "The Cleveland Show" retreads if you doubt me--as they contain the same casts and feature maybe 2-3 plots endlessly repeated.

Same thing happened with Norman Lear, just with a lot more class.

More good ICANN news

ARTICLE:
Net set for 'language shake-up', By Jonathan Fildes, BBC, 26 October 2009

From my man Rod, now running ICANN:

"Of the 1.6 billion internet users today worldwide, more than half use languages that have scripts that are not Latin-based," said Rod Beckstrom at the opening of Icann's conference in Seoul, South Korea.

"So this change is very much necessary for not only half the world's internet users today but more than half, probably, of the future users as the internet continues to spread."

I was so happy to see Rod trade in his DHS credentials for ICANN. A guy with his vision and optimism can do so much more good there.

A good and inevitable sign of globalization's continued expansion.

(Thanks: Constantina Meis)

The power of connectivity inside the Gap

LEADERS: "The power of mobile money: Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could have just as big an impact," The Economist, 26 September 2009.

SPECIAL REPORT: "Mobile marvels: A special report on telecoms in emerging markets," by Tom Standage, The Economist, 26 September 2009.

Editorial's brilliant start:

Once the toys of rich yuppies, mobile phones have evolved in a few short years to become tools of economic empowerment for the world's poorest people. These phones compensate for inadequate infrastructure, such as bad roads and slow postal services, allowing information to move more freely, making markets more efficient and unleashing entrepreneurship. All this has a direct impact on economic growth: an extra ten phones per 100 people in a typical developing country boosts GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points . . ..

I recently got a snotty email from a "reader" who claimed to know my books and articles and was perplexed by this "connectivity" thing I was pushing. How was I going to bamboozle the entire American public into having our military invade the entire Gap in order to foster this dubious "connectivity"?

Well, this good fellow was having none of that!

Gosh, maybe people inside the Gap will want connectivity at less than gunpoint, DOYATHINK?! Maybe people other than the West will be involved. Maybe Americans other than gov bureaucrats, maybe U.S. civilians other than our military . . . Maybe, maybe, maybe this whole thing is bigger than whose regime we topple, not because we impose but because the locals desperately want it.

I just had to laugh. There is nothing more pathetic than the paranoid who wants to believe it's all about American conspiracies.

More than 4B handsets globally now, with 3/4ths used in developing world. In Africa, 40% have them. The developing world, as recently as 2000, accounted for only 25% of the world's 700m mobile handsets. Africa features the fastest growth--befitting its emerging status as globalization's hottest frontier.

So now comes the great wave of mobile banking, bypassing cattle, mattresses, traditional banks and post offices and even credit cards.

Ground zero is Kenya, whose mobile money M-PESA is taking off like wildfire. Not only that, but those who use it have seen household incomes rise 5-30% in the short time.

CANYOUBELIEVEIT? No U.S. troops were involved!

Ah, but financial innovation is inherently evil, is it not? Doesn't it always serve the rich and never the poor? Isn't the Gap always screwed by it in the end?

Yes, yes, this connectivity thing may have some uses, after all.

A tipping point reached on Taiwan's search for identity

ASIA: "Taiwan and the United Nations: Not even asking; At the United Nations a pragmatic Taiwan changes tack," The Economist, 26 September 2009.

The new phrase is "meaningful participation," not membership.

Still investing in Russia

COUNTRY REPORT: "The Peril and Promise of Investing In Russia," by Carol Matlack, BusinessWeek, 5 October 2009.

Simple reason:

Disposable household income in Russia is 30% higher than Brazil's, almost four times China's, and 10 times higher that of India.

Two words that define the global middle class tsunami: disposable income.

Other details:

China up 7.5% in 2009, India 5.4%, while Brazil down 1.3% and Russia 8.5%.

Those household numbers: Russia at $6532, Brazil at $5050, China at $1641 and India at $634.

FDI first half of 2009: $43B China, $13.2B India, $12.6B Brazil and $6.1B Russia (thank you Vlad!).

A fuel-cell distro system becoming less fantastic in the eyes of Western investors

NEW BUSINESS: "Fill 'Er Up--With Hydrogen: Automakers, energy companies, and even Germany's government are seeing new potential in fuel cells," by Jack Ewing, BusinessWeek, 5 October 2009.

German gov, along with a consortium of major auto/energy corps, committing to 1,000 H stations in the country by 2015.

The expectation? "Hundreds of thousands of fuel-cell vehicles on the road."

Surfacing . . .

Too bad about the Packers. I think the Favre hype really got to them in the first half, where the entire team had that deer-in-the-headlights look about "the most important game of the year!" That was just an ugly performance where our very young team looked downright unprofessional in their preparation and play. Then McCarthy actually started adjusting in the 3rd quarter and it became a game (maybe his staff was listening to Aikman complain loudly about the painfully unimaginative play-calling). But that was too late against a team as star-stuffed as the Vikings are right now, so Minnesota is pre-emptively awarded the league championship at 7-1 and Fox calls off the rest of the season in favor of following Brett 24-7 in a reality TV show (you know it will have to happen eventually).

A sad finish to a long weekend that otherwise went very well for me.

Surgery on Thursday was two hours, primarily because the doc found a portion of infected bone near the cyst that he removed. That required a lot of clean-up, apparently, but, in his mind, it explained my non-stop infections. The bone near the cyst apparent became contaminated from the repeat infections the growth was causing, so I was never going to get better absent some intervention.

The surgery for me was a relative breeze. I woke up with no particular pain (meaning it was easily handled by the meds) and was back home at 2:30. I had only internal packing, most of which should dissolve before I see the doc next Thursday. Big thing for me has been keeping still, as almost any movement triggered a blood flow, but I was stable enough to walk my two younger kids around the neighborhood last night and go to mass this morning with everybody. I been on Vicodin all weekend, in a homage to Brett.

The difference in how I feel is pretty strong. I actually felt better right after the surgery and since than I've felt in the past couple of months! I no longer have that dark cloud feeling in my head, which had gotten so bad I did feel like my skull itself was infected at times. I can also breath through big chunks of my head like never before (So THAT's how that works!), meaning I can actually hock a loogie now (can't blow out at all--docs's orders), something I could never do before in my life. It's weird, but I actually think I can now breathe in the same way that most everybody else has always done, and it's only taken me 47 years to achieve that minor miracle.

Doesn't mean I'm still not eager to leave Indy and move back East, where my allergies were always a lot easier (same with spouse and kids), but I do think I won't be operating here anymore behind the 8-ball all the time.

So, in the end, I only wish I had that surgery about 10 months ago. Frankly, it was such a breeze I would have glady had it ten times since last December if it meant no infections.

So we'll see where it takes me now.

A lot of hot air to arrive at the military consensus

ARTICLE: U.S. to Protect Populous Afghan Areas, Officials Say, By THOM SHANKER, PETER BAKER and HELENE COOPER, New York Times, October 27, 2009

Okay:

President Obama's advisers are focusing on a strategy for Afghanistan aimed at protecting about 10 top population centers, administration officials said Tuesday, describing an approach that would stop short of an all-out assault on the Taliban while still seeking to nurture long-term stability.

But I don't get why this is considered the "middle way." Everything I heard and everybody I talk to basically said this is the essence of McChrystal's plan in the short term, with the obvious hope to expand later on. We fiddle with the troop numbers--fine. Everybody declares we'll still kill AQ in Pakistan--like that was ever coming off the table.

I will go with Cheney's criticism on this one: a lot of dithering to come up with the same basic plan and call it "consensus." Plus a conscious low-balling on the necessary numbers and no real effort yet displayed to regionalize the solution over the longer-term.

To me, that's a lot of sturm und drang with little-to-no innovation.

My, what a crucial debate!

This reminds me of the surge debate on Iraq: basic military line adopted after a lot of hot air expended, with the politicians claiming deep impact. I am not impressed.