Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 10:30PM RELIGION: "Working Out While Muslim: Women around the world are inventing ways to balance faith with fitness," by Azadeh Moaveni, Time, 28 September 2009.
Actually, I and my kids have been dressing like Muslim women while surfing or swimming for years, getting closer and closer to full coverage.
Why? Most of us have blue eyes, and need protection from the sun.
The key is the new materials.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 10:28PM HEALTH & WELLNESS: "The Case for Bans on Smoking: Curtailing Second-Hand Smoke Cuts Heart-Attack Rates, Studies Show," by Ron Winslow, Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2009.
You watch: the global effort here will be stunning in the next 20 years.
I'm standing outside Atlanta's airport yesterday and one guy is smoking: Geez the way the second-hand smoke attacked this sinusitis sufferer! It's nasal rape.
I know I'm sensitive, but the other aspect that feeds this is how much we've already narrowed smoking in America. Sometimes I go many days before I encounter any.
Watch "Mad Men." That's the world I was born into. There was smoke EVERYWHERE.
Life is much better now, and you will see such "dogma" enforced globally more and more, primarily to cut health costs in emerging markets.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 10:27PM U.S. NEWS: "Recession Has Immigrants Packing: Census Survey Shows First Decline in Foreign-Born U.S. Residents in Nearly 40 Years," by Conor Dougherty and Miriam Jordan, Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2009.
Almost all the decline is just Mexicans, as a bunch of countries have increased flows slightly. Simply put, there is King Kong (Mexico) and everybody else, and since Mexico is right next door, you just go home to ride out the bad times.
Now, unlike normal times, Hispanics don't enjoy higher employment rates than whites and blacks.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 11:15PM ARTICLE: Proposal Circulates on New Civilian-Military Agency, By Spencer Ackerman, Washington Independent, 11/3/09
Bowen and I are in sync on this subject, but the easiest "sales" are to those who've labored in the vineyard. I have a ton of respect for Bowen's work, which I think has been nothing short of amazing. I don't know how you take this suggestion as anything less than an imperative.
In effect, Bowen's asking for the OFDA (Office of Foreign Disaster Relief) within USAID (within State) to serve as the cornerstone for a Department of Everything Else. I've always thought (and have long said in the brief) that liberating USAID in part or in whole is the way to start this evolution.
Why? You need something not State and not DoD as your interface with New Core powers, all of whom have issues with those two.
So when you need a new medium, you build a new interface.
I even like the name: U.S. Office for Contingency Operations.
But the key point is to create:
a "permanent, fully accountable, empowered interagency management office." It would take "full responsibility for managing the relief and reconstruction component" of a future war and would report jointly to both State and the Pentagon. With "total accountability for" the relief and reconstruction budget, it would manage all personnel used for such an operation "except for any uniformed personnel normally answerable to the combatant commander and Foreign Service personnel answerable to the Chief of Mission," the deputy to the ambassador in a U.S. embassy.
This is exactly what I've been talking about with the DoEE: labor on call from State and DoD as required; more of a virtual department than a big one; and a big focus on interagency management that will never come from the political minders at NSC.
Very gratifying to see.
(Thanks: NYkrinDC)
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:40PM FRONT PAGE: "China's Rich Youth Spark Bitter Divide," by Shai Oster, Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2009.
Good perspective:
China hasn't recreated its old class system, and even in Mao Zedong's day people resented abuses of power. Mr. Deng's reforms enabled hundreds of millions of people to lift themselves out of poverty. Yet today's richer China is also a more divided China. It is split between poor rural areas and richer cities; between developed coastal regions and poorer inland areas; between the educated and uneducated.
Just like America.
The solution? Get a political system that blows off the steam and keeps movement up and down rather fluid.
Just like America.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:38PM MARKETPLACE: "Indian Firm Takes a Hollywood Cue, Using Dream Works to Expand Empire," by Eric Bellman, Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2009.
To me, this is one of the most interesting and under-covered aspects of India's rise and its clear connectivity alliance with the United States.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:37PM CORPORATE NEWS: "New Pentagon Priorities Reshape Defense Business: Smaller Contractors Benefit Amid Shift From High-Tech Weapons to More Basic Arms Meant for Quick Deployment," by August Cole, Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2009.
The SysAdmin, being served, reshapes the industry.
Serving the Leviathan allowed the defense industry-Pentagon relationship to remain, as one expert puts it here, "totally divorced from economic reality."
The Long War changes that: the military comes back to society and the defense sector comes back to economic reality.
Revolutionary changes, indeed.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:34PM OP-ED: The rumours of the dollar's death are much exaggerated, By Martin Wolf, Financial Times, October 13 2009
From my favorite analyst of globalization:
It is the season of dollar panic. These panic-mongers are varied: gold bugs, fiscal hawks and many others agree that the dollar, the dominant currency since the first world war, is on its death bed. Hyperinflationary collapse is in store. Does this make sense? No. All the same, the dollar-based global monetary system is defective. It would be good to start building alternative arrangements.
Couldn't have said it better.
More:
The dollar's correction is not just natural; it is helpful. It will lower the risk of deflation in the US and facilitate the correction of the global "imbalances" that helped cause the crisis. I agree with a forthcoming article by Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics that "huge inflows of foreign capital to the US facilitated the over-leveraging and underpricing of risk".* Even those who are sceptical of this agree that the US needs export-led growth.
Looking ahead:
Finally, what can replace the dollar? Unless and until China removes exchange controls and develops deep and liquid financial markets - probably a generation away - the euro is the dollar's only serious competitor. At present, 65 per cent of the world's reserves are in dollars and 25 per cent in euros. Yes, there could be some shift. But it is likely to be slow. The eurozone also has high fiscal deficits and debts. The dollar will exist 30 years from now; the euro's fate is less certain.
This view may be too complacent. The danger of a collapse of the dollar is small and of its replacement by another currency still smaller. But a global monetary system that rests on the currency of a single country is problematic, for both issuer and users. The risks are also growing, particularly since the emergence of "Bretton Woods II" - the practice of managing exchange rates against the dollar.
Right out of Great Powers (the solution to the previous problem becomes the new problem):
In a floating exchange-rate regime reserve accumulations should also be unnecessary. But, after the financial crises of the 1990s, emerging countries decided they needed to pursue export-led growth and insure themselves against crises. As a direct result, three quarters of the world's currency reserves have been accumulated just in this decade.
A good definition of globalization's stunning recent expansion: 3/4s of the world's reserves were accumulated since 2000!
Strong finish:
I arrive, by a somewhat different route, at the same conclusion as Mr Bergsten: the global role of the dollar is not in the interests of the US. The case for moving to a different system is very strong. This is not because the dollar's role is now endangered. It is rather because it impairs domestic and global stability. The time for alternatives is now.
As always, as close to brilliant as it gets in punditry.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:32PM ARTICLE: Turkey and Syria Signal Improved Relations, By SEBNEM ARSU, New York Times, October 13, 2009
Turkish diplomacy seems decidedly in high gear. Makes you wonder if Ankara is getting its ducks in a regional row for something big.
After all, it'll be hard for the Turks not to go nuclear if/when Iran becomes a recognized nuclear power.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:28PM ARTICLE: China's navy sails past India's dock, By Peter J Brown, Asia Times Online, Oct 22, 2009
Interesting piece.
Longtime readers of the blog will remember this call:
"The Chinese were quick to note how their lack of a maritime capacity to engage in disaster relief and rescue during the 2004 tsunami also redounded in the formation of an ad hoc maritime alliance between the US, Japan, Australia and India to its detriment," said Sourabh Gupta, senior research associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc in Washington, DC.
"By appropriating capabilities in this disaster assistance and humanitarian relief area as well as participating in global stakeholder activities such as the Somalia anti-piracy mission, the PLAN seems to have cottoned on to a convenient vehicle for regional and 'out of area' naval activity - non-traditional security missions - without setting off alarm bells."
I delivered that message personally in Beijing many times, but I'm sure I was but one of a small army of sensible people doing the same, both from without and within.
As for the Subic resurrection, it will happen. It just won't be military. And the driver won't be threat, but cost.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:26PM ARTICLE: Offer Raises Idea of Marriage for Catholic Priests, By RACHEL DONADIO, New York Times, October 21, 2009
It's a move that will inevitably come, if only for the culture clash that will happen within the Catholic church in the U.S. as we import more and more fire-and-brimstone priests from Gap regions.
My Mom hopes for another John XXIII, and I hope for an American Catholic Church that divorces itself from Rome.
But I am much more likely to migrate to the American Anglicans (Episcopalian) before too long. My family went Episcopalian for two years way back when, in the mid-1990s, when our firstborn battled cancer. Our first son was baptized Episcopalian.
I admit I miss that parish, the female priest, and overall higher level of discourse (I actually taught Bible Camp to kindergartners for a week, my Moses lesson being the best!). I simply can't take the Catholic stance on homosexuality anymore, plus I dislike all the new bowing and scraping that's being introduced lately--like having to bow before communion. Too much goofy armography. I just no longer feel at home there.
But the younger two are still in Catholic grade school, and will remain there as long as we remain in Indiana.
But the minute we move back East . . ..
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:23PM ARTICLE: Violence in the Newest Olympic City Rattles Brazil, By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO, New York Times, October 20, 2009
Yikes!
Better clear that up!
Still, last time I went to the movies, Joker was blowing up stuff all over Chicago.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 10:19PM OP-ED: The Chinese Disconnect, By PAUL KRUGMAN, New York Times, October 22, 2009
Solid piece by Krugman.
I quote at length:
Some background: The value of China's currency, unlike, say, the value of the British pound, isn't determined by supply and demand. Instead, Chinese authorities enforced that target by buying or selling their currency in the foreign exchange market -- a policy made possible by restrictions on the ability of private investors to move their money either into or out of the country.
There's nothing necessarily wrong with such a policy, especially in a still poor country whose financial system might all too easily be destabilized by volatile flows of hot money. In fact, the system served China well during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The crucial question, however, is whether the target value of the yuan is reasonable.
Until around 2001, you could argue that it was: China's overall trade position wasn't too far out of balance. From then onward, however, the policy of keeping the yuan-dollar rate fixed came to look increasingly bizarre. First of all, the dollar slid in value, especially against the euro, so that by keeping the yuan/dollar rate fixed, Chinese officials were, in effect, devaluing their currency against everyone else's. Meanwhile, productivity in China's export industries soared; combined with the de facto devaluation, this made Chinese goods extremely cheap on world markets.
The result was a huge Chinese trade surplus. If supply and demand had been allowed to prevail, the value of China's currency would have risen sharply. But Chinese authorities didn't let it rise. They kept it down by selling vast quantities of the currency, acquiring in return an enormous hoard of foreign assets, mostly in dollars, currently worth about $2.1 trillion.
Many economists, myself included, believe that China's asset-buying spree helped inflate the housing bubble, setting the stage for the global financial crisis. But China's insistence on keeping the yuan/dollar rate fixed, even when the dollar declines, may be doing even more harm now.
Although there has been a lot of doomsaying about the falling dollar, that decline is actually both natural and desirable.
Because China insists on remaining pegged to the dollar, which is inevitably and naturally weakening (meaning it's worth less abroad but our stuff is cheaper to export), they're hitching a ride on our devaluation--in effect, screwing the entire world.
Worse, says Krugman, China's policy endangers the recovery--especially among the world's poorest nations:
By pursuing a weak-currency policy, China is siphoning some of that inadequate demand away from other nations, which is hurting growth almost everywhere. The biggest victims, by the way, are probably workers in other poor countries. In normal times, I'd be among the first to reject claims that China is stealing other peoples' jobs, but right now it's the simple truth.
Most counter-intuitively:
The thing is, right now this caution makes little sense. Suppose the Chinese were to do what Wall Street and Washington seem to fear and start selling some of their dollar hoard. Under current conditions, this would actually help the U.S. economy by making our exports more competitive.
In fact, some countries, most notably Switzerland, have been trying to support their economies by selling their own currencies on the foreign exchange market. The United States, mainly for diplomatic reasons, can't do this; but if the Chinese decide to do it on our behalf, we should send them a thank-you note.
Very informative piece and well written.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009 at 6:12AM Started it yesterday and it was like flipping a switch from screwed-up to normal: ate normal, got tired normal, slept normal (no weird dreams), felt hungry in a normal way when I got up (no nausea), and felt rested when I got up (instead of just plain scared). In short, a drug that truly promotes recovery instead of just holding the line on pain. The downside is minor: the slightest fuzz that is very easy for me to navigate and punch through as required for thinking (like a semi-bad allergy late-afternoon).
Non-narcotic, centrally-acting analgesic, Tramadol goes by many names.
It's calling card: it mimics the actions of opioids (they call it a "stripped down version" synthetic version of Codeine) but, in chemical terms, does not belong to that class.
What I know: it masks the pain very effectively and produces a mild sense of euphoria but something way short of the fuzzy elevation you get with the codeine derivatives. And the side-effect of depressed breathing is negligible--for me at least, whereas it was profound for the Vicoden/Percocet/etc. Ditto for any itchiness, constipation, etc.--all too mild to mention.
I only wish I had had it from the start. Would have made for a much easier weekend.
Full script name of what I got is Tramadol HCL 50MG Tablet TEV (4/day as needed for pain).
If you're somebody who doesn't handle the stronger stuff well (like me), this is a nice alternative worth asking for.
I learned this trick with Emily many years ago during her cancer fight: central-acting analgesics often fill in nicely for the harder stuff (morphine gave her frightening post-surgical seizures) and can be most effective for navigating scary invasive procedures.
I post this simply to create a reminder for years from now, when I say to myself, "What was that stuff that worked so well?"
NOTE: THERE IS A LOT OF DEBATE ONLINE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TRAMADOL IS LEGITIMATELY CONSIDERED A "NARCOTIC." WHAT SEEMS CLEAR: IT IS ADDICTING AT HIGH DOSES AND IS OFTEN ABUSED AS SUCH BY ADDICTS TRYING TO REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON OPIOIDS. LIKE ALL PAIN MEDS, IT IS TO BE USED AT A MINIMUM LEVEL AND FOR THE SHORTEST TIME POSSIBLE. I DO NOT WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT ITS DANGER-FREE, BECAUSE IT SO MIMICS THE ACTION OF OPIOIDS THAT MANY PROFESSIONALS CONSIDER IT TO BE THE SAME, AND THUS A NARCOTIC. I JUST KNOW THAT, FOR ME, IT REGISTERS AT A LEVEL WAY BELOW THE VICODINS AND PERCOCETS AND CODEINE PRODUCTS, SO IT WAS A REAL HELP,
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 11:54PM ARTICLE: U.S. Weighs Working With Local Powers In Afghanistan, But It Can Be Risky Business, By Zarif Nazar, Charles Recknagel, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, November 02, 2009
Yes, partnering with in-country locals will be hard, but it's the only route forward that I see. Afghanistan is now more of a fake state than it's ever been (one has to notice the pattern that, wherever we intervene inside the Gap, we tend to birth states within states--in effect, deconstructing colonial constructs).
The key will be, however, to find regional sponsors--province by province--besides ourselves. We can't provincialize without regionalizing. And the truth is, it will happen anyway, whether we work for it or not--just like in Iraq (which still seems to have a lot of fake-state internal fighting left over).
A simple rule: when you intervene in a fake state inside the Gap, expect more than one offspring.
(Thanks: Louis Heberlein)
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 10:58PM ARTICLE: Group Says China Has Executed 4 for Roles in Tibet Riots, By ANDREW JACOBS, New York Times, October 23, 2009
Usual Chinese response: round up a small number of prominent types and execute as a sign to everybody else.
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 10:57PM WORLD NEWS: "http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125634292388104937.html," by Paul Hannon and John W. Miller, Wall Street Journal, 24-25 October 2009.
After two months of rising numbers, global trade flows drop a bit in August (down 2%).
IMF now saying the year drop will equal 11.9%, the biggest since the Great Depression. The IMF also predicts a 2.5% rise in 2010.
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 10:56PM VIRTUS is a sexual abuse awareness training program that I am required to participate in--if I want to volunteer at my kids' Catholic grade school.
Funny how that works: the company engages in a decades-long coverup of sexual abuse of children by its employees and thereupon demands that its customers take sex-abuse training as a prerequisite for receiving its services.
Talk about socializing a problem--and the guilt.
But I do appreciate the need to keep an eye on Catholic parents who send their kids to parochial schools. Certainly, we're talking a high-risk pool of potential offenders.
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 10:55PM Before I switched off from Vicodin (I simply cannot handle narcotics anymore--at any level apparently) to a non-narcotic prescription pain killer, I did watch the six Star Wars movies in order, and I must admit, I really love all the complexity and depth and visuals of 1-3 much better than the original trip (4-6). I mean, so many shots in those movies are like works of art. In comparison, the original trio seem so much less sophisticated--so crude.
If you know the history of the project, Lucas had the entire 1-6 vision and then got just enough money to try a section. He picked what he later called "A New Hope," but when viewed from the perspective of the passing years, the whole collapse of the Republic and the rise of the Empire is a lot more interesting and profound than the successful insurgency. Luke is simply a pale version of the old man--story-wise. Plus Ewan McGregor's Obi Wan is more interesting than Alec Guiness's, and Yoda is just so much richer a character in the first trio than in the second.
I just found myself really let down by the second trio when viewed after the first. I think it's because, when Lucas did the first trio, he had all the resources and time to do it his way.
I wish I could say it more cleverly, but this is my brain recovering from sinus surgery.
And you have to understand, I saw Star Wars 18 times in theaters when it came out, so I know that movie--shot for shot. I was a serious fanboy (and yes, if you like Trek and Star Wars, you must see "Fanboys" the movie).
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 10:50PM WORLD NEWS: "Global Trade Data Remain Fragile," by Paul Hannon and John W. Miller, Wall Street Journal, 24-25 October 2009.
After two months of rising numbers, global trade flows drop a bit in August (down 2%).
IMF now saying the year drop will equal 11.9%, the biggest since the Great Depression. The IMF also predicts a 2.5% rise in 2010.
