Defusing the Arab-Kurd military standoff

WORLD NEWS: "Iraqi Arabs and Kurds Pursue a Common Ground: Military Commanders Are Finding Ways to Cooperate to Help Counter Threat of Violence, as They Rethink Roles as Soldiers," by Gina Chon, Wall Street Journal, 10 November 2009.

More good news out of Iraq: more evidence of troops behaving like impartial security vice extensions of political factions. For now, the mil-mil between the Iraq Army and the Kurds' peshmerga is just beginning, but the first steps are--historically speaking--the hardest.

None of this glass-half-full evidence says Iraq still isn't three states trapped within an uncomfortable federation. It does say, however, that traversing that chasm between the break-up and the make-up is looking a lot less violent and a lot more like tough bargaining.

Doesn't mean bombs won't still go off. Just means they're only a sideshow to the real power dynamics.

Iraq's election law delivers what Karzai lacks

EDITORIAL: "Democracy and Iraq," Wall Street Journal, 10 November 2009.

Which is, a sense that the government is both reasonably responsive to the public and the main center of bargaining among the nation's major players.

The recent vote (141 legislators our of 195) in Baghdad clears the way for the late January vote, the first one since 2005, when most Sunnis boycotted. The sticking point of Kirkuk was finessed in terms of whose votes count, but the big change is shifting from a party slate to actually choosing individual candidates.

All of this makes the drawdown that much more plausible and legit. But remember, even the currently envisioned glidepath sees us with 50k at end of 2011.

Islam is now overwhelmingly Asian, not Arab

INTERNATIONAL: "Islam: A shifting locus; New data on the second-biggest faith," The Economist, 10 October 2009.

New census says 1.57B Muslims in the world, or about 23% of the world population. Only Christianity (yes, Catholics are in that club, despite the claims of some co-religionists) is bigger.

Here's the kicker: only 2/3rds of Muslims are Asians, meaning substantially less than 1/3 are Middle East/North African or Arab (think of all the Muslims in the rest of the world).

The new China is balanced

ARTICLE: Confucianism a vital string in China's bow, By Jian Junbo, Asia Times Online, Oct 9, 2009

Interesting to hear about this tack more and more from Chinese. Notice how what China sells softly has nothing to do with Mao or communism or central state control. Instead, it's an argument for balance and harmony, which does not presume any one political outcome.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

Brazil's impressive foreign policy

POST: The world's best foreign minister, By David Rothkopf, Foreign Policy weblog, 10/07/2009

Great piece by Rothkopf on rising Brazil and the guy behind many of its fairly impressive and decidedly sophisticated foreign policy moves under Lula.

I too have long been impressed by Brazil's foreign policy. It is playing up to its potential, unlike China, with India somewhat closer to Brazil. Russia, naturally, brings up the BRIC rear.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)

How do you say 'Hummer' in Chinese?

ARTICLE: Iconic Hummer brand sold to Chinese manufacturer, By Tom Krisher, AP, October 9, 2009

Natural. Hummer is an classic example of conspicuous consumption (Thorstein Veblen) and it belongs in the hands of a rising economic pillar, where there's plenty such stupidity--and the bucks to afford it.

China goes upstream on commodity prices

FRONT PAGE: "China Targets Commodity Prices By Stepping Into Futures Markets," by James T. Areddy, Wall Street Journal, 12 October 2009.

China sets up three futures markets to fight back against foreign suppliers it suspects are gouging them on commodities given the nation's fierce demand.

Smart.

What Obama should do on Afghanistan

ARTICLE: U.S. Envoy Urges Caution on Forces for Afghanistan, By ELISABETH BUMILLER and MARK LANDLER, New York Times, November 11, 2009

Per my recent post regarding the Abdullah pull-out, Eikenberry's reluctance gives Obama the chance I stated he should take advantage of--if he's really looking to keep it light. This isn't a question of whether or not Karzai is corrupt (he is--hardly out of the norm for the region), but whether he presents legitimate competency as our counterparty going forward.

The commitment here is large and lengthy, as Obama seems aware based on his questions:

Mr. Obama asked General Eikenberry about his concerns during the meeting on Wednesday, officials said, and raised questions about each of the four military options and how they might be tinkered with or changed. A central focus of Mr. Obama's questions, officials said, was how long it would take to see results and be able to withdraw.

"He wants to know where the off-ramps are," one official said.

Any surge in forces will take months to unfold, then there's months before you can expect results, but then you've also bought yourself a significant delay on any desired downstream drawdown. In short, it's a serious second mortgage not to be undertaken lightly.

Ultimately, I think--and have said--that we need to show commitment. But Obama's leverage on Karzai is a now thing, something that will evaporate rather quickly once the commitment is announced. So better to raise your qualms now and make your pressures happen now, and if Eikenberry gives him that option, then Eikenberry is doing his job.

Me? If I'm Obama, I go to Beijing and tell them straight, "Listen, I'd like to be able to stay in Afghanistan long enough for you guys to see your $3.5B investment work out--along with other goals you might have, but what are you going to do for me in the meantime? Because I've got a domestic situation that does not support this long term, so if I cannot find some movement from neighbors like you, I may be offering you advice on how to deal with YOUR Afghanistan woes next time we meet."

Again, Obama's leverage on this whole decision is a wasting asset, so I don't mind the dithering, so long as side conversations like that are being pursued.

Are they? Rest assured you never hear about the truly serious ones.

So let's hope these guys are thinking glidepaths beyond just showing staying power, because that's why I voted for the man.

The Economist on fertility rates

ARTICLE: Demography, growth and the environment: Falling fertility, The Economist, Oct 29th 2009

Worth watching.

If you remember my demographics stuff in both PNM and BFA, this all tracks nicely: poverty causes babies, not the other way around, meaning rising incomes control birth quite nicely in those instances when the state isn't up to the task (and thank God both India and China were, because, in combination, they change world history).

Bottom line: the world adds about 2.5-3.0B to our 6.5B (today) over the next four decades, yielding us a topped-out global population (and historic tipping point) at roughly 9-9.5B--just in time for the life-lengthening revolution to start kicking in big-time, along with global warming (see my recent WPR column on the "great waves of change").

I really like these videographics from The Economist: very informative and easy to absorb.

(Thanks: Steve Fleming)

At some point, deliberation must become decision

OP-ED: The Tenacity Question, By DAVID BROOKS, New York Times, October 29, 2009

Good piece by Brooks, which captures, I think, the key unanswered question on Obama:

The experts I spoke with describe a vacuum at the heart of the war effort -- a determination vacuum. And if these experts do not know the state of President Obama's resolve, neither do the Afghan villagers. They are now hedging their bets, refusing to inform on Taliban force movements because they are aware that these Taliban fighters would be their masters if the U.S. withdraws. Nor does President Hamid Karzai know. He's cutting deals with the Afghan warlords he would need if NATO leaves his country.

Nor do the Pakistanis or the Iranians or the Russians know. They are maintaining ties with the Taliban elements that would represent their interests in the event of a U.S. withdrawal.

The determination vacuum affects the debate in this country, too. Every argument about troop levels is really a proxy argument for whether the U.S. should stay or go. The administration is so divided because the fundamental issue of commitment has not been settled.

One of the key reasons why I voted for him was the sense that he would be suitably calculating and rational on these decisions--eschewing the romanticism of "good fights." But the determination quotient still matters: if you want to hand off or regionalize, you have to seem a credible partner--you have to demonstrate it.

And why I don't find a lot to complain about regarding the administration's key decisions to date, none have given them any great opportunities to define themselves in this manner.

And they should be looking for one, because the alternative of having the world guess on this subject is no good.

21st century superpowers shrink the Gap

ARTICLE: Reviews Raise Doubt on Training of Afghan Forces, By THOM SHANKER and JOHN H. CUSHMAN Jr., New York Times, November 5, 2009

Old line in brief: mastering the skills that get a country from instability to stability, from war to peace, from disconnectedness to connectedness, from the Gap to the Core--this defines a superpower in the 21st century.

In this age of frontier integration, our military naturally spends more time trying to replicate itself than trying to eradicate wannabes.

Applause for self-centered, muckraking careerism

ARTICLE: Chinese Trial Reveals Vast Web of Corruption, By ANDREW JACOBS, New York Times, November 3, 2009

Interesting to watch a rising party official use a vast corruption trial to advance his political career. Of course, he's getting "too big for his britches," but there's plenty to be applauded in self-centered careerism based on muckraking.

Beats the hell out of the party line that birthed the corruption in the first place.

Stunning Maoism in India

ARTICLE: Maoist Rebels Widen Deadly Reach Across India, By JIM YARDLEY, New York Times, October 31, 2009

If, as we are told, the whole Pakistani Taliban deal is forcing the nation's military to reorient itself from its historical obsession with India, then maybe the Indian Maoists (Naxalites) will do the same for India.

Stunning to consider: if you had come to me in, say, 1980, and described a Maoist insurgency spread out across India in 2009, I would have guessed China might be in some way connected. Alas, there are no real Maoists left in hyper-capitalist China.

To succeed in Iraq, think in years

ARTICLE: For Every Iraqi Party, an Army of Its Own, By NAJIM ABED AL-JABOURI, New York Times, October 28, 2009

A good description of just how fake a state Iraq remains, and why effective nation-building would take many more years of babysitting.

Absent such commitment? Be prepared for each of your interventions to birth successor states--as in, plural.

The problem of corruption in Iraq

ARTICLE: Pervasive Corruption Rattles Iraq's Fragile State, By MARC SANTORA and RIYADH MOHAMMED, New York Times, October 28, 2009

Iraq sliding back to the regional norm.

Counting the SysAdmin

ARTICLE: Civilian Contractor Toll in Iraq and Afghanistan Ignored by Defense Dept., by T. Christian Miller, ProPublica, October 9, 2009

A theme familiar to readers of this blog: The SysAdmin side of the effort tends to be ignored and, when it's covered or acknowledged, devalued.

And yet, it's where the win is truly to be found.

(Thanks: Michael S. Smith II)

Blair on China

OP-ED: China's New Cultural Revolution, By TONY BLAIR, Wall Street Journal, OCTOBER 9, 2009

A truly magnificent piece by Blair (or his writers) that provides a lot of nice perspective of the sort I favor:

My fave section:

Prior to 1949, China was a deeply riven and unequal society. There was a reason for the civil war and the multiple invasions of foreign powers. There was a reason for the upheaval of 1949. In the first 30 years came the completion of the revolution and the establishment of the People's Republic. But then came the Cultural Revolution.

It is difficult for us to grasp the pain of that period, when China closed down and engaged in a bizarre and cruel experiment that left scars, even to this day, on those who experienced it--including many in the present leadership. Talk to those who lived during that time, when reason was turned on its head, when survival depended on the whim of officialdom, and when all independent thought was snuffed out, and you will understand how momentous the change has been since then.

The opening up of China has its ups and downs. But over the past 25 years, the number of people below the World Bank poverty line has fallen by over 80%, GDP per head has more than doubled, and Chinese entrepreneurs are among the most innovative in the world.

China is now the world's largest market for automobile sales, but it is also investing heavily in green vehicles. It is the world's second largest market for wind turbines and the third largest in solar power. Over the next decade, it will almost double its energy output from renewable sources, its cities will change much of their lighting to LEDs, and it will aim to peak its emissions in 2030.

China's universities are forging partnerships with the best of their counterparts in the West. And China is turning out more science and engineering graduates than the whole of Europe put together.

Worth reading.

(Thanks: Michael S. Smith II)

Turkey and Armenia make up

ARTICLE: After Hitch, Turkey and Armenia Normalize Ties, By MARK LANDLER and SEBNEM ARSU, New York Times, October 10, 2009

Nice to see, and nice to see the U.S. involved in the personage of Secretary Clinton.

Speaking at the Kellogg (School of Management) Innovation Network confab

The KIN, as it is known, meets several times a year, and it's a sort of TED-like event that's focused on management issues. I spoke yesterday at the KIN Dialogue (Fall 2009) entitled, "Managing Through Uncertainty, Mastering New Realities."

I drove up Monday morn, checked into the very nice, lakeside Allen Center, worked the brief for an hour or so (new ending) and then joined the delegates (55 senior execs from major corps spread all over the world for a very nice lunch (the Allen Center has its own dining facilities. After an opening panel, I addressed the group for about two hours, including probably 6-8 questions.

The talk was definitely one of my better ones, and the high-level audience really brought it out of me (I was still a bit wobbly as this was my first out-of-home workday after the surgery). Fortunately, I got to have lunch with Philip Kotler (Prahalad was named most influential biz guru in the world, and Kotler came in at #9), and that really warmed me up. I was funnier than usual, and that was odd, because I laid off any pain meds yesterday until after the talk!

One thing I did notice post-surgery: when I speak publicly now, my voice resonates quite a bit in my sinuses, which I think is normal for most people (meaning they never notice), but it was a new deal for me.

Great interactions afterward, with lotsa biz cards exchanged. I stayed through the day and through the night session (music oriented). I had breakfast with the delegates this a.m. and then drove home today.

It was a real honor to participate. Kellogg, of course, is a premier management/biz school, so very cool to speak there finally. I hope to do it again someday. And meeting Kotler was an added treat. He's like Ben Stein's separated-at-birth-twin, and he's almost as funny!

HRC wraps herself around the nuke axle

OP-ED: The Next Steps on Nonproliferation, BY HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, Foreign Policy, OCTOBER 28, 2009

Terrible, cliched beginning:

In an age of pressing global challenges, none threatens our nation or our world as urgently as the possible spread of nuclear weapons.

I would suggest a long talk with John Mueller on this subject, Madame Secretary.

The rest of the piece is equally bad: brain-dead orthodoxy likely cranked by some staffer. Sad to see it go out under her name, because it's just boilerplate statement after boilerplate statement.

As religions go, there can be none less useful to the practice of international affairs than that propagated by the high priests of arms control. I remain unconvinced that there is anything magical and transcendent about nuclear weapons in the sense that we should fear all such deaths above any other type of demise. They appeared 64 years ago and ended great power war. Since then, plenty of violent death and lives cut short by disease and pollution, but exactly zero caused by nuclear weapons.

And yet witness how we continue to wrap ourselves around this axle.

Clinton likes to brag that she isn't trapped by outdated Cold War thinking, and in the vast majority of instances, I give it up to her--as she isn't.

But here she truly is

(Via WPR Media Roundup)