China has to ante up in Africa

ARTICLE: China pledges $10 billion in low-cost loans to Africa, By Barney Jopson and Jamil Anderlini, Washington Post, November 9, 2009

China better get used to defending its "selfless" engagement in Africa:

Wen Jiabao, China's premier, has pledged $10 billion in new low-cost loans to Africa over the next three years and has defended his country's engagement on the continent against accusations that it is "plundering" the region's oil and minerals.

No, China's engagement in Africa need not be zero-sum, but, left to their own devices, you know it would be.

Could be the end of Blackwater/Xe

ARTICLE: Blackwater Said to Pursue Bribes to Iraq After 17 Died, By MARK MAZZETTI and JAMES RISEN, New York Times, November 10, 2009

Depending on how this goes down, it could spell the effective end of Blackwater/Xe. Attempting to bribe foreign government officials, while a lot of other governments do this at will, breaks a key American rule set known as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

One thing to get past the "mistakes were made" shooting, but another to get caught in something premeditated like this.

Luxury markets shift

ARTICLE: As Asia's Emerging Economies Bound Ahead, Auction Houses Shift Focus, By BETTINA WASSENER, New York Times, October 12, 2009

New Core = new money = new focus for sellers of damn near everything luxurious.

Advertising perspective

ARTICLE: In New Campaigns, Spots Take On a Rosier Hue, By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD, New York Times, October 12, 2009

It's called having some perspective.

Almost like it was a foregone conclusion

ARTICLE: Putin's Party Wins in Regional Elections Across Russia, By SOPHIA KISHKOVSKY, New York Times, October 12, 2009

News flash from Russia: Harlem Globetrotters win over Washington Generals yet again!

Ah, but a good game was had by some.

Russia's aggression will spur more natural gas finds

ARTICLE: Russia Gas Pipeline Heightens East Europe's Fears, By ANDREW E. KRAMER, New York Times, October 12, 2009

Great quote:

"Yesterday tanks, today oil," said Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, a former head of Poland's security service.

And you know what? That's called improvement.

Big point to me is that the Russians continue to push the pipeline connectivity.

Do they intend to dominate markets? You bet. Why should you expect them to be anything but Russian? Will they use their market dominance to try to force their political will on weaker nations? My, that's something ONLY the Russians ever try, isn't it?

But the larger reality is, the more Europe fears such monopolistic dangers, the more it'll search for non-associated natural gas--and the more it'll find.

US has reached 'peak carbon'

ARTICLE: US headed for massive decline in carbon emissions, Guardian, 15 October 2009

Great article that shows how limited our thinking is when we make the usual straight-line projections.

For years now, many members of Congress have insisted that cutting carbon emissions was difficult, if not impossible. It is not. During the two years since 2007, carbon emissions have dropped 9 percent. While part of this drop is from the recession, part of it is also from efficiency gains and from replacing coal with natural gas, wind, solar, and geothermal energy.

The U.S. has ended a century of rising carbon emissions and has now entered a new energy era, one of declining emissions. Peak carbon is now history. What had appeared to be hopelessly difficult is happening at amazing speed.

"Peak carbon," I love that.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

Jerry goes to Lambeau

Younger son at Packer Hall of Fame exhibit (fan section where kids pretend to ride bikes with players like they do at training camp).

Jerry as running back in famous Ice Bowl QB sneak.

Jerry practices Lambeau leap

Jer scored 27 mph. I got 38 mph.

Lunch at Curley's Pub at Lambeau.

Jerry kicks!

Jerry runs to daylight!

Jerry with namesake Jerry Clifford, inducted 1991.

Plaque up close.

Jerry Clifford
Legal Council (sic)
Hungry Five Member 1991

Still my hero, from childhood. Only NFL QB with 5 championship!

Tom around the web

+ Stephen Pampinella has a whole post entitled 'Neomarxism and Thomas Barnett'.

+ Griff reviewed PNM (briefly).
+ Leaders and Learners at Hyde-Bath school watched and discussed one of Tom's videos (didn't say which).
+ Kitapozetleri has a summary of PNM.
+ And mentioned Tom in this article.
+ The Image linked The long arm of the long war.
+ Leigh Drogen linked Hip hop: the high priest of globalization.
+ AliBabaIncorporated mentioned Tom's personal branding strategy.
+ Got Immigration Blog wrote about GP.
+ New World Global Outlook recommends GP and the weblog.

+ The Denver Chronicle reprinted 'Why America's War on Drugs Will Wane'.
+ The League of Ordinary Gentlemen mentions Tom on the difference between war and peace and the Powell Doctrine.
+ Alayne Fisher linked Earth continues recent cooling trend.
+ Internet Anthropologist Think Tank linked More evidence of Iranian logic.
+ Discussion about Tom broke out, including our own stuart abrams.
+ Planet Restart linked Lomborg does his usual rip on global warming fear-mongering (and got picked up lots of other places).
+ Sudan Watch reprinted Blair on China.

Hard but right for Obama to push China

ARTICLE: Obama to press China on Afghanistan, By Geoff Dyer, Financial Times, November 12 2009

Per my Thursday post, some evidence of Obama seeking to socialize/regionalize the problem of Af-Pak in the direction of China.

Yes, hard stuff, but the right stuff to be pursuing.

(Thanks: Judah Grunstein)

Reject the Taliban's 'offer'

ARTICLE: In Afghanistan, Taliban surpasses al-Qaeda, By Joshua Partlow, Washington Post, November 11, 2009

I find this logic seductive but misleading: the Afghani Taliban, under Omar, now say they no longer want to be identified with Al Qaeda and just want to be free to enslave the Afghan people again and pursue their brutal tactics there and there alone, with no desire to engage in transnational violence again.

Frankly, if I am forced to choose between a corrupt regime that will keep the people poor and largely disconnected from globalization's benefits and a brutal regime that will keep the people poor and completely disconnected from "evil" globalization, I will go for the corrupt one.

Why? It won't inevitably need evil outsiders to justify its corruption. In fact, its pursuit of the same will generate some baseline connectivity, which beats nothing.

As a natural pariah state, the Taliban will inevitably be forced down a criminal path, as such states always are, and that will bring them back into the orbit of transnational terror groups.

In the end, we don't want to confuse short-term tactics with ultimate strategic biases.

Remember, Hirohito was the bad guy, not Harry

ARTICLE: Hiroshima: The dreaded invitation, By Blaine Harden, Washington Post, November 13, 2009

Thank God on that non-apology.

Without a doubt, it was a brilliant call by Truman that saved tens of thousands of American lives and far more Japanese lives. The villain in this show was never Harry, but the Emperor, who blithely let so many of his countrymen die in the futile final months of his regime's brutal war of conquest that brought untold suffering to people throughout Asia.

I have always found Japan's efforts to use Hiroshima and Nagasaki to cast Imperial Japan as innocent victim as one of the most distasteful lies of the 20th century--right up there with Holocaust deniers. That regime absolutely got what it deserved, and found some salvation only in serving as the warning to others regarding the damage nukes can cause.

Ch√°vez is a non-factor

OP-ED: Save water, make war, Washington Post, November 12, 2009

Of course we should fear this guy as the second coming of Hitler:

HUGO CHÁVEZ recently found himself trying to explain, in a live television broadcast, why Venezuelans should limit themselves to three-minute showers. A national water shortage, the latest product of Mr. Chávez's "21st-century socialism," has led to mandatory rationing. There's also a power shortage, which is causing daily blackouts in large parts of the country. Though the country is deep in recession, inflation still runs at nearly 30 percent. Then there is the murder rate, which is on its way to tripling since Mr. Chávez took office; Venezuela and its capital of Caracas now have the highest per-capita murder rates in the world, according to the State Department.

Okay, so he doesn't make the trains or anything much else run on time. But he calls us such despicable names!

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we keep an eye on him, and we give him as much trouble as we can, but please, the guy defines "in the weeds," showing just how safe this international era truly is--notwithstanding the constant efforts of hysterical fear-mongers.

Reliving the DC sniper killings

ARTICLE: A rote look at (ka-chung) the D.C. sniper case (ka-chung), By Hank Stuever, Washington Post, November 9, 2009

Traveling repeatedly around DC during those weird days, I do remember it distinctly:

John Allen Muhammad and Lee Boyd Malvo's killing spree in October 2002 happened just long enough ago that the saga now belongs in the collective millennial-age, post-9/11 scrapbook of Washington area anxiety and paranoia.

Remember? The squatting while pumping gas, the jumping around, the zigzagging through strip-mall parking lots? And as Virginia prepares for Muhammad's scheduled execution, it should be easy enough to convey that fear without much effort -- it's still an unbelievable chain of events, heartbreakingly filled with random victims and dedicated heroes.

The books start to flow . . ..

Obama's sensible decision on the trials

I do like the Obama decision to try the 9/11 suspects in U.S. courts vice military tribunals. It was a criminal act committed on our soil, whatever the larger "war" intentions, so I prefer seeing our justice system work it out without fear of "revelations" or ideological grandstanding. As for being afraid that such an act will elicit attacks against Americans at home, I say, please, must we be such wimps that we're afraid to offend our terrorist enemies by putting their compadres publicly on trial ("Ooh! Let's not piss off the terrorists!"). Please, a little more courage. Again, when we talk about acts on American soil, let's not slip into militarizing either the environment nor the solution, for that gives it up to our enemies in a highly inappropriate, symmetricizing way--as in, allowing them to declare America to be their battlefield and operate within it as such. No thank you.

When we persist in the war analogy and demand the right to apply our own military law, then we run into the overlap with the International Criminal Court, which aspires to try terrorists who commit crimes against humanity, which 9/11 was as well, so if we want to keep them within our system exclusively (ours functions quite nicely, so no expressed need for ICC intervention), I'm more comfortable going this route--even with the attached risks (which strike me as minimal given the evidence). It's different when you're talking suspects whom we've acquired overseas and who cannot be linked to actual acts here in the States (like those up for the USS Cole bombing). There, if the crimes are recognizable and yet don't rise to the level of the ICC and cannot be reasonably handled by the local judicial system, I'm more partial to letting military justice do its thing, because it's highly respected.

So yeah, jurisdiction matters, just like it always does, meaning, as Solomonic as Obama's hair-splitting decision was (some here, some there), it strikes me as sensible.

The "sacred soil" argument (we dare not try these bastards on sacred NY soil) is a complete loser, in my mind. I have never preferred soil be recognized as being "consecrated" by murder, no matter how foul or how magnificent in scope. Frankly, if we did that throughout NYC, it would become one giant memorial. Again, since when do we give the terrorists the right to determine what gets consecrated and where we're allowed to seek our justice?

In the end, a good call even as it will elicit all manner of hysterical condemnation from the wing-nut Right.

As I get deeper into Conrad Black's excellent FDR bio (maybe Mr. Black should have spent more time on his business ethics), I've come to realize that Obama will be beset by such extremities throughout his administration. The key, as with FDR, is to claim the middle ground effectively, banishing the extremists on both sides to the margins. So far, Obama has done this well, which only makes these people nuttier, which is why the Secret Service better remain ultra-sharp, because--as always--we face more dangers from our home-grown nuts than the foreign ones.

What Obama Won't Say on His Trip to China

Chuck Kennedy/White House

Think he lost some pull in the health-care debate? Try heading East with a sinking dollar in your pocket. Inside Washington's tip-toe game with an equally nervous Beijing.

Continue reading this week's World War Room column at Esquire.com.

Hearing from Angie Stewart

Remember when Tom wrote passionately about the difference yoga has made in his life? The woman whose DVDs he uses, Angie Stewart, left a comment on that post. (I'll copy the comment here, and then the original post.)

Tom writes:

I was thrilled to get the email from her, as I had just spent an hour with her--via DVD--doing my first post-surgical workout.

Also, this should help all of you who wondered what exact DVDs Tom was using. Here's the link to Walmart and Amazon. Click through to Angie's page for more information.

Angie's comment:

Dr. Yogi Barnett!
How I wish I had known you sent this "yoga" blog out back in July about my yoga DVD as I would have sent you a personal motivating message as well as an immense thank you for sharing your yoga story. I am more than thrilled that you were able to find such great results within 2 months of complete dedication. Your story was beautifully written, inspirational and offered a feasible, inexpensive, truthful, genuine solution. You are the reason I teach and share the gift of yoga. As a runner myself, I sought yoga to help a chronic injury and in turn found it to renew my love for running, improve my speed and find my solace in my long runs once again.
Thank you for helping me spread the good news of yoga, especially to my runner friends who will reap the benefits just as you did with a little push and clarification as to what yoga is and how it can help.

My best to you,
Angie Stewart, MPH, CSCS, NASM-CPT
Creator of Runner's Yoga 90210‚Ñ¢

Tom original post:

Life is better

Like so many Republican politicians lately, I must confess to an affair. It's gone on for two months. Her name is Angie Stewart and she's based out of LA. I met her in a Wal-Mart. She has changed my life.

I could say it is an affair of the . . . spine.

Almost 18 years ago I was taught the butterfly effect from chaos theory. I was training intensely for the Marine Corps marathon (I had already run one the previous year at 3:29:59 and wanted to improve some) and had just run the 20 miler two weeks before the race. The next day I started a wobbly six. Your legs are always wobbly after a 20 miler and it takes a good three miles before they snap back into gear. Well, I was running this kilometer track at a park (Fort Ward in Alexandria VA) and in the first mile a squirrel ran across the asphalt. I would have crushed its head with my right foot but I instinctively (meaning, without thought) stretched my right leg to avoid the animal. In that instant, I snapped my tailbone, giving it a good crack.

I finished the 6, and felt sore that night. Tuesday I ran 8 and it hurt bad. Wednesday I gave up on a ten. Thursday I had trouble walking. Friday, I could not sit in a chair.

I saw the doc and had X-rays. He said I should forget the marathon. I asked about stretches. He predicted I would hurt myself beyond all reason and if I was insistent, I could cripple myself.

It was a useless conversation anyway, because I was on my back for a month on painkillers and muscle relaxants.

It took me six months to run again. I was told I would feel it if I sat on hard surfaces (like cement) for the rest of my life.

I never had another bit of trouble with it until mid-January of this year. It was an awkward lift. I was up in the attic and was pulling up a tupperware box (big) through the hole in the ceiling, so I was on all fours and pulling up with one arm (my right). I managed to reactivate the tailbone injury by doing the same thing: an extreme leverage that went right to the core of my back.

Well, I took relaxants the rest of Jan and got in okay shape for the book tour, but when I came back from it and tried to exercise again (Precor elliptical and Bowflex), the injury resurfaced.

Back and forth with relaxants and heating pads and jacuzzis and massages and so forth, and no matter what I did, I could cure it, but not to the point where I could reengage on exercise.

I started to worry about running with my younger son in cross-country next fall (my older has moved on to a team I couldn't possibly keep up with).

So, in late May, I set out and met Angie. Her 10-minute solution Yoga for beginners DVD was the missing link to my recovery.

I had long planned to go into yoga as the third leg on the stool (Bowflex for tone and muscle mass, elliptical for heart and vascular, and yoga for core muscles strength and flexibility).

So I did the 50 minute DVD (five ten-minute sessions that start easy, get harder, get really f--king hard on the third one, then dial back to balance, and then deep stretching on #5).

The key measure for me: numerous positions and moves were a bit scary, tailbone-wise on the thin mat over a wooden floor (we have no carpeting)--at first. But two months in, I do them all with no fear and no discomfort.

I committed myself to doing the entire 50 minutes every day until my back was okay and I could return to the Bowflex and Precor as an alternating exercise. I completed that recovery today, having done the yoga for two months straight, no matter where I was (it was hugely recuperative on the Shanghai trip, for example).

I will tell you, the yoga thing is perfect for me--very Zen and very centering. I walk differently. I'm a lot taller much of the time. I sit so much straighter in chairs. I no longer get any kinks from anything. It's really amazing.

The lesson: cardio is a must, as is the muscle tone, but what really makes you feel like you're aging is the loss of flexibility and the brittleness of the core of your body. There is something very empowering to maintaining your flexibility. It's simply wonderful for your state of mind.

If I had known what that squirrel was going to do to my life back then, I would have crushed its skull. But I'm glad I did not. Because the little bastard introduced me to Angie (and her impossibly flat stomach) and yoga, something I expect to practice for the rest of my life.

Now to talk my wife into joining me . . ..

Iran's overseas "empire": much talk, but little delivery

FRONT PAGE: "A New Mosque in Nicaragua Fires Up the Rumor Mill: In Poor Country, 'Everyone Asks' if Iran Helped Out; Question for the Contractor," by Steve Stecklow, Wall Street Journal, 9 November 2009.

Iran promises all this economic development in Nicaragua, but only seems able to build a mosque for the nation's 300 or so Muslims.

Another way Iran reminds me of China in the 1970s: all talk and no real action. Good for your average white elephant, but nothing more.

Revolutionary Guard's grip extends further to intelligence

WORLD NEWS: "Revolutionary Guard Takes Over Iran's Intelligence," by Marc Champion, Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2009.

The list goes on and on.

But I do find the Khamenei-in-charge stuff a bit misleading. If he's in charge, then he's not turning over all the instruments of control to the Revolutionary Guard.

One definition of the leadership rift in Iran

CAPITOL JOURNAL: "Iran's Moves Reveal Leadership Rift," by Gerald F. Seib, Wall Street Journal, 10 November 2009.

Seib describes four groups:

1) the reformers: open to the nuke deal but focused on regime change--and survival;

2) Ahmadinejad: wants the deal to improve his standing with young people with the impression that he can actually deal with the West (i.e., temporizing on the foreign front to concentrate on the consolidation of power internally);

3) old-time conservatives who dislike Ahmadinejad and don't want him to have any foreign successes; and

4) Khamenei: supremely distrustful of any deal with the West.

Team Obama takes rightful claim of exacerbating divisions within Iran by pushing this deal, but if Iran proves incapable of a decision (as it would seem, given all the conflicting signals), then the question is, Which path (sanctions or more talking) is more likely to worsen the divisions?

As always, fairly reasonable analysis from Seib.