Saudis request oil drop welfare

ARTICLE: Saudis Seek Payments for Any Drop in Oil Revenues, By JAD MOUAWAD and ANDREW C. REVKIN, New York Times, October 13, 2009

Not the first time the Saudis have raised this notion: getting welfare for lost oil revenue as the Core deals with global warming.

It is simply a measure of the Saudis' incompetence in diversifying their economy after all these years.

Now, they want to be paid for their strategic stupidity.

What will the legacy effect be on hybrid sound?

ARTICLE: Hybrid Cars May Include Fake Vroom for Safety, By JIM MOTAVALLI, New York Times, October 13, 2009

A truly interesting engineering issue: how to make silent hybrids just noisy enough to not constitute a hazard to pedestrians.

Let's hope they get artistic here, because we'll live the QWERTY effect if we're not careful. They'll want a universally recognized sound, but that doesn't mean it needs to be the same old, same old growl.

Economic wins in Iraq and Afghanistan

ARTICLE: Economy - In Iraq, a rapidly shrinking outlook for American companies, Peyamner News Agency, 13-Nov-09

The key bit:

Iraq's Baghdad Trade Fair ended Tuesday, six years and a trillion dollars after the American invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, and one country was conspicuously absent.

That would be the country that spent that trillion dollars -- on the invasion and occupation, but also on training and equipping Iraqi security forces, and on ambitious reconstruction projects in every province aimed at rebuilding the country and restarting the economy.

Yet when the post-Saddam Iraqi government swept out its old commercial fairgrounds and invited companies from around the world, the United States was not among the 32 nations represented. Of the 396 companies that exhibited their wares, "there are two or three American participants, but I can't remember their names," said Hashem Mohammed Haten, director general of Iraq's state fair company. A pair of missiles atop a ceremonial gateway to the fairgrounds recall an era when Saddam Hussein had pretensions, if not weapons, of mass destruction.

The trade fair is a telling indication of an uncomfortable truth: America's war in Iraq has been good for business in Iraq -- but not necessarily for American business.

A perfectly fine outcome: we truly "win" when everybody else becomes convinced that they "won" more.

Let's see Noam Chomsky and the hate-American-imperialism crowd run with this one.

Larger reality: outside of oil, Iraq is not a particularly good fit for us economically. The natural networkers there are regional, mid-level players who know how to tap that bottom of the pyramid.

Something to remember as we craft a similar "win" in Af-Pak.

The quiet conversation continues on the dollar

FRONT PAGE: "World Tries to Buck Up Dollar: Thailand, Korea, Russia Seen Buying U.S. Currency; Pressure on China to Boost Yuan," by Joanna Slater, William Mallard and Bob Davis, Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2009.

Timely headline for this week's Esquire column, reporting that China is coming under pressure not just from the EU but likewise from its own regional neighbors to relax its peg to the drooping dollar.

In effect, everybody recognizes how China is cheating by free-riding America's defensible effort (by not fighting the dollar's decline) to encourage a global rebalancing.

Great quote:

"It's one thing for the Chinese to ignore the U.S. and Europe, [Thailand's finance minister] said. "But when they start ignoring the developing G-20 it's a bit trickier."

As usual, as soon as the world crowns something as the "next big thing," the knives come out--and deservedly so in this instance. Yes, China's got its interior poor to think about, but now it's becoming clear that the ones who will pay for that logical devotion are the rest of the world's developing economies and impoverished populations.

China is simply closing the door behind itself as it moves upward.

And there's no way to sugarcoat that one.

Just one more example of ingenuity

ARTICLE: Building a Bridge of (and to) the Future, By HENRY FOUNTAIN, New York Times, October 12, 2009

Nifty example of the kind of upgrades made possible by advances in material sciences.

Always bet on ingenuity.

The military parade in Beijing--for domestic consumption

SCOPE: "Don't Be Afraid of China," by Melinda Liu, Newsweek, 12 October 2009.

Great point by Liu: this was all about telling the Chinese people not to worry, and that their government has their s--t together.

The fear is reasonable, as China's pol-mil ability to defend its growing vast network and trade and financial connectivity with the world is marginal at best, meaning there's a big shortfall between capability to defend and vulnerability--very USA circa 1880.

Pemex's woes define Mexico's future

THE AMERICAS: "Mexico's troubled oil industry: How many Mexicans does it take to drill an oil well? More than 140,000, and even they're not very good at it. For this, now acute, problem, blame the politicians," The Economist, 3 October 2009.

The usual story on PEMEX: too proud to accept foreign investment, it's running itself, and the Mexican gov with it, into the ground.

23 of 32 major fields in decline and the world's 7th biggest producer is set, like Indonesia before it, to be a net importer by 2017.

The gov hasn't got a clue, despite oil money making up 40% of its revenues.

For now, PEMEX remains "the untouchable bone marrow of Mexican sovereignty."

Medvedev mystique

ARTICLE: Medvedev calls for economic changes, By Philip P. Pan, Washington Post, November 13, 2009

Guy continues to give you reason to hope that he represents post-Putin possibilities inside Russia:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called on his country Thursday to shed its "humiliating" dependence on exports of oil and other raw materials and to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy aimed at attracting investment and promoting growth.

Even better is Medvedev's none-too-subtle criticism of his predecessor:

The nation's prestige and prosperity cannot be upheld forever by the achievements of the past," he said, citing Russia's nuclear arsenal, oil and gas production and industrial infrastructure. "This was all largely built by Soviet specialists. In other words, we didn't create them."

"We have to admit that in previous years we failed to do enough to solve problems inherited from the past," he added. "We have failed so far to dismiss the economy's primitive structure, the humiliating dependence on raw materials, and to reorient production to people's real needs."

High energy prices have lulled the country into a dangerous complacency, Medvedev argued, creating "illusions that structural reforms could wait." He said Russia needs to focus on innovation, including in agriculture, pharmaceuticals and nuclear energy, and perhaps attempt flights to other planets.

Since taking office as Putin's handpicked successor last year, Medvedev has often outlined ambitious plans for reform, but he has yet to make significant changes. In recent months, though, he has stepped up efforts to set himself apart from Putin, who remains Russia's most powerful politician.

Something to keep an eye on.

China: growing beyond its comfort level

LEADERS: "The People's Republic at 60: China's place in the world; The world has accepted that China is emerging as a great power; it is a pity that it still does not always act as one," The Economist, 3 October 2009.

BRIEFING: "China's other face: The red and black; As the People's Republic celebrates its 60th birthday, the gangsterism the communists boasted of vanquishing has staged a comeback," The Economist, 3 October 2009.

Great line from the editorial:

It is a big power with a medium power mindset, and a small-power chip on its shoulder.

That is a truly brilliant capture.

The briefing is mostly about corruption and the dark underbelly of Chinese mafias.

That simply reminds me of Minxin Pei's point about democracies being great at advertising their defects while authoritarian regimes are great at hiding their deficits.

Fascinating how this pot legalization movement has mushroomed (no pun) in recent months

U.S. NEWS: "Legal-Pot Backers Split on Timing," by Stu Woo, Wall Street Journal, 3-4 October 2009.

Doesn't it seem like all this legalization talk has come out of nowhere?

I mean, there's the sense of frustration on the "drug war," but this is separate and distinct.

As usual, California leads the way, where there the distance between the go-fast lobby (2010 state-wide referendum on making pot legal) and the go-slow lobby (prefer 2012) is . . . uh . . . a whopping two years.

To be watched.

I'm personally for it, based on past familiarity. I've always been perplexed by the way we drink so heavily in this country, at such enormous cost and violence, while we demonize pot. Doesn't mean I slippery-slope myself into supporting all manner of drug legalization. It just means I find the whole black market-versus-Big Pharma split a bit artificial, given how we're such a drug-friendly society (Americans love to self-medicate).

As for abuses, I prefer to treat the problem more medically than criminally, unless of course, we're talking bad acts while under the influence, but there again, the record on pot-versus-alcohol is stunning.

Do you know what the number 1 wife-beating night of the year is? Super Bowl night. And it's all about alcohol.

[Ed. We get it. See comment below.)

True crisis never yields a return to "normal," so why should this one be any different?

SPECIAL REPORT: "The long climb: A special report on the world economy," by Simon Cox, The Economist, 3 October 2009.

The first big question is how thrifty does the average American become and does it stick?

The second big question is how much does China endeavor to improve its social safety nets so Chinese don't feel the need to save at such high rates?

Big fear: everybody works more for less money for a long time, so unemployment stays high.

Kind of dull, as special reports go.

An end to an embarrassment for CNN

ARTICLE: As King enters, CNN says Dobbs seeks freer forum, By Paul Farhi, Washington Post, November 13, 2009

Hopefully, this is a sign that CNN recognizes that aping Fox's stridency may work for MSNBC but not for itself. It has been an embarrassingly evolution for both Dobbs and CNN, and I say good riddance.

Meanwhile, I recently caught the always good Greg Jaffe on Campbell Brown's show, and by God, that started to sound like real journalism again!

Hope reborn.

A way forward of U.S. on climate policy

ARTICLE: U.S. weighs backing interim international climate agreement, By Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, November 13, 2009

Perfectly fine for Obama to punt on Copehagen's quest for a global CO2 pact.

Watching Tata's Nano

Q&A: Tiny car has big potential, Washington Post, November 12, 2009

Definitely one to track.

A passionate leader won't change a dysfunctional organization

ARTICLE: Agriculture expert picked to lead struggling USAID, By Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, November 11, 2009

Once again we are sold the notion that the nominee's "personal passion" will be the difference. Meanwhile, plans are made to further incorporate the dysfunctional USAID inside State's truly antiquated structure.

Yes, yes, it'll be his personal passion that turns the tide!

Or maybe Shah's ties to the Gates Foundation will be more useful . . .

Do we really have to talk to North Korea?

ARTICLE: Obama will send top diplomat to North Korea for direct talks, By Scott Wilson, Washington Post, November 10, 2009

Oh goody. I expect all sorts of progress from this innovative turn.

Obama's Nuclear Focus at Odds with Rooseveltian Roots

President Barack Obama has successfully transformed America's strategic dialogue with the world for the better in his first year, impressing Europe -- or at least eminently sensible Norway -- enough to win a Nobel Peace Prize. In relationship after relationship, America now finds itself talking about what really matters, which in most instances means prioritizing economics above terrorism (George W. Bush's one-note presidency) and climate change (Al Gore's shrill post-vice-presidency).

Continue to read the week's New Rules column at WPR.

Photo: Franklin Delano Roosevelt, 1933 (Photo by Elias Goldensky).

Something working in Afghanistan

ARTICLE: Afghan Enclave Seen as Model for Development
Enclave, By SABRINA TAVERNISE, New York Times, November 12, 2009

Gotta like this:

Small grants given directly to villagers have brought about modest but important changes in this corner of Afghanistan, offering a model in a country where official corruption and a Taliban insurgency have frustrated many large-scale development efforts.

Since arriving in Afghanistan in 2001, the United States and its Western allies have spent billions of dollars on development projects, but to less effect and popular support than many had hoped for.

Much of that money was funneled through the central government, which has been increasingly criticized as incompetent and corrupt. Even more has gone to private contractors hired by the United States who siphon off almost half of every dollar to pay the salaries of expatriate workers and other overhead costs.

Not so here in Jurm, a valley in the windswept mountainous province of Badakhshan, in the northeast. People here have taken charge for themselves -- using village councils and direct grants as part of an initiative called the National Solidarity Program, introduced by an Afghan ministry in 2003.

Simple and sweet, dovetailing with the goal of super-empowering individuals and connecting them to opportunity, both at home and abroad.

A basic truth one learns when you run your own business or participate in a start-up:

"You don't steal from yourself," was how Ataullah, a farmer in Jurm who uses one name, described it.

Best part, after much cajoling, the region is seeing girls back in schools.

Obama 5GW

ARTICLE: On trip to seal ties with Asia, trade policy threatens rift, By Andrew Higgins and Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post, November 15, 2009

In line with my Esquire column. Obama must balance every show of deference with defiance. Thus, while working to rebalance the global economy by allowing the dollar's drop, he must make all manner of trade nationalistic showing, for which he takes heat on this trip. It is a careful balancing act where I think he outperforms Beijing right now.

In many ways then, Obama wages economic policy in what I have previously imagined to constitute the Fifth Generation Warfare mode: a win so subtle that your competitors claim it as their own.

Finger protest in China

ARTICLE: China's 'netizens' hold authorities to new standard, By Keith B. Richburg, Washington Post, November 9, 2009

Ah, but I thought Beijing was going to successfully keep everybody there under mouse arrest!

A severed finger sparked an online uproar that went viral. And very quickly, rattled authorities here took note.

The story of Sun Zhongjie, a 19-year-old driver who chopped off his finger to decry police entrapment, shows how the Internet has become an effective tool of public protest in this tightly controlled country.

Almost every form of open dissent is outlawed in China, but mass protests organized online are increasingly putting pressure on police, judges and other officials -- and getting results.

Again, the AOL/walled garden approach works for the first generation of users. It's the 19-year-olds that will screw you--God bless 'em.