Globalization's expansion is best for all of us

ARTICLE: Fruitful Decade for Many in the World, By TYLER COWEN, New York Times, January 2, 2010

Nice piece that fits well with my WPR column last week: the Naughties were very nice to most of the world in terms of economic advance, our financial f---ups notwithstanding.

Opening:

IT may not feel that way right now, but the last 10 years may go down in world history as a big success. That idea may be hard to accept in the United States. After all, it was the decade of 9/11, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the financial crisis, all dramatic and painful events. But in economic terms, at least, the decade was a remarkably good one for many people around the globe.

Even better in the next para:

Ideals of prosperity, freedom and the rule of law have probably never been more resonant globally than they've been over the last 10 years, even if practice often falls short. And for all of the anticapitalistic rhetoric that has emerged from the financial crisis, national leaders around the world are embracing the commercialization of their economies.

Some perspective! Which Cowen routinely provides in his typically great pieces.

Nice, near-ending:

TO put it bluntly, if the United States takes one step back and the rest of the world takes two steps forward, even in purely selfish terms we should consider accepting the trade-off, if only for the longer run. Most of us gain from the wealth and creativity of other countries, even if we can't always feel like the top dog.

So yeah, we'll all going to make a lot more money because globalization continues to expand--crisis or no.

Israelification wouldn't be that hard

ARTICLE: The 'Israelification' of airports: High security, little bother, By Cathal Kelly, (Toronto) Star, Dec 30 2009

Fascinating piece that's worth reading. Makes a strong case that Israelification of U.S. airports would not be as hard as many make out--including myself.

I scan corrected.

(Thanks: Hugh Pierson)

Tom's next gig in Las Vegas

"The Next Decade in the Commercial Vehicle Industry," this year's annual Heavy Duty Dialogue '10 on Monday, Jan. 18, at The Mirage, Las Vegas, Nev.

Further details at the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association.

Globalization problems won't go away

ARTICLE: Asia Free-Trade Zone Raises Hopes, and Some Fears About China, By LIZ GOOCH, New York Times, December 31, 2009

Here's my prediction on the ASEAN-China FTA deal: overall a win-win but plenty of bad things will happen.

The larger victory, though, comes in starting the experiment and forcing China to thereupon adapt to the demands unleashed from neighbors.

Like most forms of connectivity, this deal is no panacea. It just forces the next-best set of problems to tackle.

This is Steve DeAngelis' mantra every time Enterra goes through another evolution: "This is our best set of problems yet!"

That is exactly how we need to view globalization's advance--not some magical erasing of problems, but moving on to better problems.

Well-played H1N1 reaction

ARTICLE: U.S. Reaction to Swine Flu: Apt and Lucky, By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr., New York Times, January 1, 2010

Both late-term Bush-Cheney and early-term Obama-Biden get credit on this one:

Although it is too early to write the obituary for swine flu, medical experts, already assessing how the first pandemic in 40 years has been handled, have found that while luck played a part, a series of rapid but conservative decisions by federal officials worked out better than many had dared hope.

Like with Y2K, it's always dangerous to say the alarm-sounders were wrong, as the aggressive, comprehensive, pre-emptive response to a possible System Perturbation is almost always justified on the basis of constituting good practice--alone.

Hong Kong as lead goose

ARTICLE: Hong Kong Protesters Seek Democracy, AP, January 1, 2010

This is why this decade will be most interesting on the question of Hong Kong as a lead goose on internal democratization of China:

The Chinese government ruled in 2007 that the territory cannot directly elect its leader until 2017 and its legislature until 2020.

Protesters aim to speed that up, but simply by keeping up the pressure, it makes it that much harder for Beijing to renege on this pledge down the road, and these elections will have a major precedent effect on the transition from 5th to 6th generation leadership set for 2022.

More data to back up the projected Afghan reality

ARTICLE: Can Spheres of Influence Solve Afghanistan?, By Nikolas Gvosdev, World Politics Review, 11 Dec 2009

I like this Gvosdev piece a lot. It echoes a lot of what I've been saying for a while, but does it far better by giving details (e.g., the de facto spheres that are already happening with Indian and Chinese influence).

I will confess to my usual laziness: propose the downstream reality and then let the details come to you from others who know more. Learned that from Cebrowski, as I noted in one of my books.

(Thanks: Jeffrey Itell)

Pressure Iran

ARTICLE: Exiles keep Iran in touch, By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2009

Great story on how U.S.-based Iranian exiles are keeping up pressure on the regime back home.

This should naturally be greatly encouraged by any means possible.

(Thanks: robert frommer)

Defense contractors and the SysAdmin

POST: Why Does Lockheed Spend Money on Think Tanks?, By Nathan Hodge, Danger Room, December 4, 2009

Old theme of mine: defense contractors will do fine with the shift to SysAdmin ops/small wars/COIN. Going back to PNM, I argued that the dual-use here is almost universal, meaning anything you create for this market in the military realm will have great public and private-sector use outside of the military realm.

So yes, the Lockheeds will do very well with this shift.

But no, that doesn't make bloggers who argue for this nefarious.

I will tell you flat out: I have made a lot of money giving my brief and this argument to defense contractors. I consider it God's work, and yeah, I don't mind getting paid for being good at what I do.

Russia, India making good military changes

ARTICLE: Russia Quietly Creates Leaner, More Modern Military, by Anne Garrels, NPR, December 7, 2009

Good sign. India, thanks to the Naxalites at home and the Taliban in Af-Pak, are similarly rethinking. Now if we can only get such movement from China.

(Thanks: David Blair)

The family that plays together

ARTICLE: In Recession, Americans Doing More, Buying Less,By DAMIEN CAVE, New York Times, January 2, 2010

The home theater becomes very popular in the Barnett household, meaning we see very few shows in theaters nowadays. Counter-intuitive to the story on the surface (we buy more movies, but spend less on the experience of seeing them in theaters), but in truth very much in line with the logic. We road run together a lot more, but go to fewer races too.

China's economic victims should confront it

OP-ED: Chinese New Year, By PAUL KRUGMAN, New York Times, December 31, 2009

Some compelling logic from Krugman on Chinese mercantilism as reflected in the pegged yuan:

I usually hear two reasons for not confronting China over its policies. Neither holds water.
First, there's the claim that we can't confront the Chinese because they would wreak havoc with the U.S. economy by dumping their hoard of dollars. This is all wrong, and not just because in so doing the Chinese would inflict large losses on themselves. The larger point is that the same forces that make Chinese mercantilism so damaging right now also mean that China has little or no financial leverage.

Again, right now the world is awash in cheap money. So if China were to start selling dollars, there's no reason to think it would significantly raise U.S. interest rates. It would probably weaken the dollar against other currencies -- but that would be good, not bad, for U.S. competitiveness and employment. So if the Chinese do dump dollars, we should send them a thank-you note.

Second, there's the claim that protectionism is always a bad thing, in any circumstances. If that's what you believe, however, you learned Econ 101 from the wrong people -- because when unemployment is high and the government can't restore full employment, the usual rules don't apply ...

The bottom line is that Chinese mercantilism is a growing problem, and the victims of that mercantilism have little to lose from a trade confrontation. So I'd urge China's government to reconsider its stubbornness. Otherwise, the very mild protectionism it's currently complaining about will be the start of something much bigger.

I am progressively moving toward accepting this position, primarily because I can't see the sustainability of the current policy trajectory China is on, given the recent severe correction.

China's pegged yuan and trade

ARTICLE: U.S. International Trade Commission rules in favor of U.S. steel industry on subsidized Chinese imports, By Peter Whoriskey, Washington Post, December 31, 2009

As long as the pegged currency issue stays hot, I wouldn't see the Obama administration holding fire in other trade realms.

So expect more and more of these shots across the bow.

Demand is king (even with oil)

ARTICLE: Saudis quit Caribbean oil storage; China steps in, By Joshua Schneyer, Bruce Nichols and Chen Aizhu, Reuters, December 31, 2009

I remember this being my standard pitch back in 2000: when Asia becomes the global demand-center on energy, it will displace the central position that America has held for more than half-a-century.

What's it like to be the global demand center? The world revolves around you, because demand is king, and supply merely the consort.

(Thanks: Terry Collier)

How key is Christianity in China?

ARTICLE: Under Discussion: What was the most significant change in Christianity over the past decade?, by Ruth Moon, Christianity Today, 12/23/2009

Specifically:

"The huge surge of Christianity in China is a major development that several decades down the road could make the difference between peace and war. If Christianity continues to grow in China, I think relations between the U.S. and China will develop very well. If Christianity sputters out there, we're probably looking at a military confrontation of some kind. The hopes for world peace depend on what happens in China."
Marvin Olasky, editor-in-chief, WORLD Magazine

Bit self-centered, don't you think. Why only Christianity?

China's been a big competitive religious space for thousands of years, with three big mainstays: Taoism, Buddhism and Confucianism. Christianity will become the fourth, but I think it's the height of arrogance to think it's the great tipping point development in relations with the West.

(Thanks: Terry Collier)

The need for COIN in military ed

ARTICLE: Integrating COIN into Army Professional Education, by Major Niel Smith, Small Wars Journal, December 3, 2009

Good read on crucial issue:

In the eight years since the invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. Army has failed to integrate counterinsurgency (COIN) into Professional Military Education (PME). Counterinsurgency instruction remains uneven in quantity and quality throughout Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) institutions, which have failed to define standards, competencies and outcomes for COIN education. This lack of consistency contributes to ongoing operational confusion and poor execution of operations in both Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom due to lack of common concept of what counterinsurgency is and what it entails, despite great advances in COIN application and execution by troops in the field.

Changing professional military education ensures a lasting shift in the direction of small wars/SysAdmin ops, because a permanent constituency is created. Just like Gates said his last budget created a "home" for this sort of warfighter, the same space needs to be carved out within PME for such training.

NYT Asians in Africa pix

POST: Showcase: Asian Crossroads in Africa, By EIRINI VOURLOUMIS, Lens, December 11, 2009

Old theme: Asians heading to Africa change the environment there in all sorts of ways.

Right now, the most obvious heavy flow are the Chinese:

As many as 500,000 Chinese have immigrated to Africa, lured by its oil, copper, uranium, wood and other natural resources. Many have thrived, creating large conglomerates. To serve them, other entrepreneurs have opened palatial restaurants. Or karaoke halls. The infusion of a distinctly different culture into African society -- again -- is turning out to be a critical chapter in the continent's post-colonial history.

Here we get a compilation of relevant photos from past NYT stories on the same.

The demand function in religion

ARTICLE: Americans Surprisingly Flexible About Religion and Faith, By DAN HARRIS and WONBO WOO, ABC News, Dec. 10, 2009

Essential truth about America's competitive religious landscape: we change religions more than anybody else on the planet, and we mix-and-match more too.

As we represent the future of globalization (I believe), this tells you that, in the future religion becomes more demand-centric than supply-centric.

And I think that is very good.

(Thanks: Andrew Stewart)

Skinhead, drughead

ARTICLE: Workers May Lie About Drug Use, but Hair Doesn't, By PHYLLIS KORKKI, New York Times, December 12, 2009

Look for even more shaved heads among working-class males!

Looking for good geothermal

ARTICLE: Geothermal Project in California Is Shut Down, By JAMES GLANZ, New York Times, December 11, 2009

No surprise here, as this is not the way to go on geotherm (cracking and thus pushing water down into the cracks), in large part because it can cause quakes, but also because it's water-intensive and has huge maintenance costs (terrible build-up of minerals in pipes).

There is a far better way that Enterra is pursuing with a business ally.