Something we have in common with Shia Iran

ARTICLE: Iran's Growing Fear of Al-Qaida and the Taliban, By Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy, World Politics Review, 03 Dec 2009

A good reminder that Shia Iran shares our fears regarding the radical Salafist jihadist movement, which is exclusively Sunni.

China's continuing population woes

ARTICLE: Looming population crisis forces China to revisit one-child policy, By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, December 12, 2009

Point: one thing to turn the spigot off, but quite another to try to turn it back on--especially when young couples are so busy in this rapidly modernizing country.

But China did the world a world of favors by pursuing the one-child policy.

Shocker: higher pay, more applicants

ARTICLE: Pay increase for Afghan troops boosts interest, By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, December 10, 2009

Another no-s--t-Sherlock move.

Hmmm, did anyone expect fewer applicants as a result?

Mullen: perfect fit

ARTICLE: Along with pep talk, Marines get warning, By Greg Jaffe, Washington Post, December 8, 2009

I listened to this talk on TV and came away very impressed by Mullen. Like the surprising Gates, he seems a perfect fit for the age to which the military finds itself adjusting.

Nice baby step between Afghanistan and China

PROGRAM: 'China, Afghanistan sign agreement on military cooperation,' National Afghanistan Radio, 1 January 2010

[Ed. The entire transcript emailed to us because I cannot find a link on the web.]

[Presenter] China and Afghanistan have singed an agreement on military cooperation. According to information provided by the Foreign Ministry to the Bakhtar News Agency (BNA), a Chinese official and the Afghanistan ambassador to China, Soltani Ahmad Bahin, signed the agreement.

While signing the agreement, the Chinese official talked about his country's commitments to assisting the Afghan forces and added that they wanted to play their part in the reconstruction of Afghanistan through military assistance and training of Afghan officers.

He said China was in favour of expanding its relationship with Afghanistan and outlined the Chinese Defence Ministry's plans for training Afghan forces in 2010.

Soltani Ahmad Bahin thanked the Republic of China for its contributions to Afghanistan and said these contributions demonstrated the depth of the friendship between the two countries.

Bahin described terrorism and insecurity as a common problem across the world and the region and said Afghanistan as the main victim of terrorism needed more and effective contributions by the international community.

The Afghan ambassador asked for continued Chinese contributions to Afghanistan and provision of scholarships for young Afghan officers in China.

A baby step, but a good one that builds on recent, small-scale cooperation, so the right direction.

(Thanks: Our man in Kabul)

Rebalancing produces friction

ARTICLE: U.S., China locked in trade disputes, By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post, January 4, 2010

Snapshot of the bilateral tensions as the rebalancing effort continues.

You can get all scared by this or simply realize that we're talking about significant global momentum at work here, so where a redirect is attempted, one should expect plenty of friction as part of the package.

But I promise that I will try and freak out about something in 2010, just for practice.

Kudos to the BIC for taking care of their own

ARTICLE: Booming economy, government programs help Brazil expand its middle class, By Juan Forero, Washington Post, January 3, 2010

This is exactly what I was reaching for with the broad notion of the "New Core sets the new rules" and my description, in Blueprint for Action, that the New Core logically provides a third path between Go Fast America and Go Slow Europe--the go-as-fast-as-you-can-but-no-faster-path (my notion that "the train's engine can travel no faster than its caboose").

Read it and believe:

Since 2003, more than 32 million people in this country of 198 million have entered the middle class, and about 20 million have risen above poverty, according to the Center for Social Policies at the Get√∫lio Vargas Foundation, a Rio policy group that studies socioeconomic trends.

"We can generate inclusive growth as probably no other country can, given the scale of the country and the level of inequality," said Marcelo Neri, chief economist at the center. "Brazil is following what you may call a middle path. We are respecting the rules of the market and, at the same time, we are doing very active social policy."

For Brazil to manage this on its own is a huge gift to the world, on par with what China and India are accomplishing. Brazil is taking this huge chunk of global poverty and saying, "no problem, I've got this one!"

That is a ton of potential instability that the rest of us don't have to worry about--ditto with India and China.

So many experts are hot to confront these powers over this or that small thing (obviously, not small in their minds), but me? I'm just so grateful they're doing what they're doing, because with everything the U.S. is trying to cover across the Gap, we absolutely have no desire to own any of these problem sets.

Indeed, we need pillars like Brazil to manage their internal issues AND help us across the Gap where it can.

Art at the Philadelphia Union Club

Washington by Thomas Sully, 1842, Union Club, Philly.

Just beautiful stairwell, Union Club, Philly.

Let me be the first to express my shock

FRONT PAGE: "Chinese Evade U.S. Sanctions On Iran," by Peter Fritsch, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.

Ah, but if only we had "smarter sanctions"!

Of course, we all would like to see the Revolutionary Guard get suitably squeezed, but the Chinese will turn on the regime only upon its fall. If somebody can guarantee China's stable access to Iranian energy, then great.

But until then, expect Beijing to continue the workarounds while proclaiming plenty else.

Triangulating Brazil

OPINION: "Brazil Steers an Independent Course," by Susan Kaufman Purcell, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.

The usual straw man-ing that says a rising power must exhibit interests and behavior identical to that of America's--lest we be stunningly disappointed! ("You're saying we don't see eye-to-eye! OMG!").

So we find that Brazil sometimes supports regimes we like and sometimes tries to make their existence more complicated. Ditto inconsistency re: regimes we hate.

Well, when America gets universal interests instead of our usual national ones, I'll expect the rest of the planet to do the same.

Walmart rationalizing supply chains; world quakes in response

FRONT PAGE: "Walmart takes aim at supply chain cost: Drive to increase global purchasing; Retailer seeks to cut supplier companies," by Jonathan Birchall, Financial Times, 4 January 2010.

Best to check out my partner Steve DeAngelis's blog post on this article, which really caught my eye, especially the stuff about how Walmart intends to rationalize its purchasing of food (the usual Protestant Reformation of cutting out middlemen and seeking a direct relationship with producers).

Locals will naturally decry the death of middlemen, who add nothing but cost and waste and complexity, but this sort of manufacturer-to-retailer bonding will define the next great wave of globalization's tightening up.

Why? Because there's such immense inefficiency there to root out.

A truly clear sign of a regime's death throes

FRONT PAGE: "Regime Wages a Quiet War on 'Star Students' of Iran," by Farnaz Fassihi, Wall Street Journal, 31 December 2009.

There have been numerous signs for years: the brain drain, considered to be the worst in the world (according to the World Bank); the odd influx of Iranian prostitutes in nearby Europe (when you sell your women--automatic bad sign); the capital and entrepreneurial flight (often just across the Gulf); and the most stunning of all being the precipitous drop in birth rate.

In short, people have been voting with their feet and wallets and . . . for quite some time. They're so unhappy that they're just withdrawing from life there.

And now we get this truly sick sign: the targeting of star students, with "stars" earned for any activity that suggests an independent mind. Naturally, these are the same young people who'd normally win--and do win--the typical stars as top students. So what the new military dictatorship is telling the youth amounts to this: if you have a brain and any ambition, forget about a career here. Frankly, forget about any semblance of a normal life too.

So, no surprise: top students are routinely pulled to the side of the career road and placed in permanent suspension.

The star treatment details:

• one star = watch list (student may enter school after signing doc pledging to abstain from any political or social activism

• suspension and often interrogation by Intell Ministry; letter often has to be filed with Ministry swearing off all activism of any sort

• lifetime ban on higher education if you might have worked for opposition candidacies or participated in demonstrations.

Imagine the regime that bans a best & brightest from education for life.

Then remember that 60% of Iran's 75 million citizens are under age 30--meaning born after the great revolution.

This is the classic long-in-the-tooth problem of revolutions: getting the subsequent generations to shut their mouths, much less care about ideals that have long since passed into oblivion.

Easy to be against 'privatized' security

EDITORIAL: Privatized War, and Its Price, New York Times, January 10, 2010

Free-lance is misleading. Everybody with a gun is attached to somebody, otherwise they wouldn't be "privatized" security.

You can say you'll address the issue, but unless you obviate the underlying demand function, that's just talk.

Good practice for the next one

ARTICLE: Flu pandemic could be mild, By Rob Stein, Washington Post, December 8, 2009

Nice to hear. It means H1N1 ends up being more Y2K than TEOTWAWKI.

But drills, as I noted many times, are always welcome.

Obivous and necessary

ARTICLE: Contractor hirings in Afghanistan to emphasize locals, By Walter Pincus, Washington Post, December 7, 2009

Kind of a "duh"! But glad to finally see.

A little hope on NATO's role

ARTICLE: NATO allies pledge 7,000 more troops for Afghanistan mission, By Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, December 5, 2009

Props to Clinton for getting 7k troops out of NATO, when all predictions were for 5k or less.

Gives one hope.

Fuzzy start, fuzzy end

ARTICLE: Gates: 'No deadlines' on troop withdrawal, By Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, December 4, 2009

Can't get any more clear than that: our withdrawals may begin in the summer of 2011, but 2-3 years naturally involved, and there's no drop-dead date for the complete withdrawal.

Gates is no dummy: this is the core of his bet on shifting the U.S. military to SysAdmin capabilities.

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear

ARTICLE: Peru ratifies free trade deal with China, AFP, Dec 6, 2009

The key bits:

The deal will lead to the gradual removal of tariffs on more than 90 percent of goods ranging from Chinese electronic products and machinery to Peruvian fishmeal and minerals, Xinhua news agency said when the pact was signed.

Under the deal, the two nations also pledged to further open their service sectors and offer favorable treatment to investors.

China has become mineral-rich Peru's second largest trading partner after the United States.

Peru is a major producer of lead, zinc, copper, tin and gold.

Common theme in Latin America: U.S. still #1 trade partner, but suddenly--out of nowhere--China is number two with minerals as the key draw.

(Thanks: VacationLaneGrp)

Case of NorKo's rapid collapse

OPINION: "Contemplating Korean Reunification," by Peter M. Beck, Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2010.

Anything from a bloodless German quickie to a very bloody Vietnam-like process (not sure who'd be integrating whom on that last one). In between is a nice Romanian type collapse (very Marxist, actually--just in the wrong direction).

Cost estimates run from $50B (RAND) to $1.5T (Credit Suisse). This guy says $2-5T, because you'd need, for political reasons, to rapidly raise Northern income levels from 5% of South Korea's to something like 80%.

Frankly, I think that estimate is nutty. I think the Chinese have a reasonable dream when they talk about fattening up the prisoner for a while before opening up the prison. I just think the Chinese are doing nothing of the sort and rather prefer to exploit the slave labor while they can, raping the country of its mineral resources.

Me? Even in a collapse I'd see the West and East sharing the burden of keeping the state intact for quite a while before reunification would be attempted in full--a serious transition period. So the cost would be spread out vice paid in one fantastic lump sum.

Retail's "Big Show"

National Retail Federation's 99th annual convention, Jacob Javits Center, NYC.

Speaking today with DeAngelis at IBM's shadow convention.